NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Ten - Page 4
Dallas at New Orleans
| Dallas Cowboys | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Sun – 8:30PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 6.5 | 53 | 23.25 | -6.5 | 53 | 29.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.6 | 4 | 9 | 27 | Offense | 27.0 | 7 | 3 | 26 | |
| Defense | 23.2 | 15 | 31 | 16 | Defense | 18.2 | 5 | 5 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans | 3 | 19 | 11 | 4 | Dallas | 32 | 25 | 20 | 31 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Bryant | 88 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 11.0 | Colston | 40 | 5.7 | 6.0 | ||
| Williams | 45 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | Stills | 28 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | |
| Beasley | 33 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 9.0 | Moore | 25 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | |
| Witten | 66 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 10.0 | Graham | 75 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 12.0 | |
Dallas Cowboys
We’re onto the primetime games as Dallas heads to New Orleans for what should be an incredibly entertaining game between two high powered offenses. The Cowboys come in at 5-4 and a win at NO would not only be huge for their confidence, but would separate them significantly from the pack in the NFC East. Their offense scores in bunches, but an issue that has loomed in years past is rearing its ugly head again with their offensive line. They lost Brian Waters a couple of weeks back and Tony Romo was hurried 3 times and sacked 3 times in their narrow win over the Vikings hapless defense. This has to be a concern against a defense that will pin their ears back and come after Romo early and often.
On defense, they’ve been one of, if not the league’s worst against the pass. They rank 25th against WR #1’s and 30th against WR #2’s but have managed to be opportunistic, forcing 6 interceptions over the last 3 weeks. If you go back two weeks, you’ll remember that Calvin Johnson hit the 300 yard mark in a game for receiving yards, and it’s clear that talented wideouts can torch this defense. But help might be nearby for both their pass and rush defense, as Demarcus Ware prepares to return this weekend. Ware can get after Brees and create a one man pass rush, which should help the entire defense, including their corners.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Romo is an average QB at best when under pressure, completing 48.6% of passes when hurried. At home on Sunday Night Football, you can guarantee that Rob Ryan comes after him early and often and if their O-Line can’t hold up, Romo could struggle a bit more than expected. Regardless, the Over/Under here is really high so he’s in play for GPPs.
- RB – Murray didn’t look great last weekend, but New Orleans rush defense is horrible so I would definitely consider him in tournaments.
- WR – Rumors of a back injury to Dez Bryant are mounting and those concerns will scare a lot of people away from him. When you expect the least from Dez is when he generally produces the most, so I’ll be rostering him heavily in Week 10.
- TE – Jason Witten finally broke out last week as the Cowboys desperately rallied. If you’re buying into the seriousness of the Dez injury, Witten is likely the best bet to see an uptick in fantasy value and the Saints aren’t a defense that you have to avoid.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints lost in New York last weekend despite allowing just 119 yards through the air. They once again were ravaged by the run game and Chris Ivory was able to control the tempo en route to 130+ yards and a score. Physical backs have had success running right down the Saints throat all season on defense and while their pass coverage has improved from a year ago, their rush D is being exposed more and more each week. This inability to stop the run puts a ton of pressure on New Orleans, who ranks 2nd in the NFL in time of possession but were out-possessed by the Jets in that loss.
On offense, it continues to start and end with Drew Brees. But Brees tossed 2 more picks last weekend and now has 7 on the season and draws an opportunistic Cowboys defense in Week 10.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Drew Brees is a lock to throw for 300+ yards and at least one score. Given the great matchup, he’s my 2nd rated QB this weekend behind Manning.
- RB – Darren Sproles is expected to play this weekend which takes value away from Pierre Thomas who would have been a high end RB2 with Sproles out. Regardless, both have PPR value which makes them solid tournament plays.
- WR – Marques Colston is expected to return this week which returns Kenny Stills and Lance Moore to 2nd WR duties. Stills has upside but doesn’t see enough targets to be relied on and Colston has struggled all season long. The best guy to handcuff to Brees is likely in this next section…
- TE – Graham is far and away the best TE play this week. The matchup and his improving health make him a strong option in all formats.
Miami at Tampa Bay
| Miami Dolphins | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Mon – 8:40PM ET | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.8 | 19 | 21 | 22 | Offense | 15.5 | 31 | 31 | 18 | |
| Defense | 23.4 | 16 | 22 | 21 | Defense | 23.8 | 17 | 15 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay | 30 | 13 | 16 | 17 | Miami | 6 | 31 | 5 | 29 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Wallace | 72 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 8.0 | Jackson | 94 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 4.0 | |
| Hartline | 63 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | Underwood | 11 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | |
| Gibson | 44 | 6.0 | 5.0 | Owusu | 7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | |||
| Clay | 45 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | Wright | |||||
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins finally snuck out a win last week but the last 10 days have been an absolute disaster in the media for this organization. I’m not going to touch this subject because watching the media dissect every detail before all the information is out has been sickening. Regardless, you’d be naive to think that it won’t affect their fantasy value. At the very least, they’ll be without a pro-bowl offensive lineman in Incognito which spells trouble for an offensive line that has already been one of the worst in football this season. Tannehill should be eating a fair amount of grass and dirt this weekend, as he has all season long.
On defense, their rush D continues to be a mess as backs are able to torch them outside the tackles. Gio Bernard was the latest to have success against them at that point of attack and the Bengals as a whole averaged 4.7 yards per carry last weekend. Their secondary has been much better of late though, and despite allowing Dalton to throw for 300 yards they also intercepted him 3 times and kept the Bengals from catching a pass TD.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – The Buccs rank 30th against quarterbacks and I think we’ll see one of two things from Tannehill. Either an absolute stinker where he’s pressured heavily and can’t get the ball out, or a huge inspired performance where he takes command of this Dolphins ship and puts them on his shoulders. What does that mean? He’s a GPP option.
- RB – Lamar Miller has been seeing the vast majority of the workload recently and that is great news for daily fantasy value. He catches balls out of the backfield and can find the end zone, so he’s definitely an option in all formats.
- WR – With Gibson hitting IR a couple weeks back, Hartline and Wallace will see the bulk of the looks. The Buccs rank 29th against WR #1’s, so I’d lean towards Wallace here as a guy with big time upside. Remember that Revis is stuck in zone coverage in Tampa, so he may night find Wallace all that often.
- TE – Clay is a great option as a red zone threat but if Tannehill is under a lot of pressure he may be held into block more often than not.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccs blew a chance to upset Seattle last weekend in Seattle, which would have been as big of an upset as possible. Instead they sat on the ball and let the Seahawks crawl back and now they remain winless. They rank in the bottom half of the NFL in almost every category and continue to start at rookie at QB and RB. They lost their WR2 for the season and they have Darrelle Revis hiding in zone coverage. This team is a mess and the firing of Coach Greg Schiano seems all but inevitable, but if you told me two weeks ago that the coach in this game with the best chance of being fired was Joe Philbin, I would have laughed in your face.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – The Dolphins secondary is a bit underrated and now that they’re healthy they are challenging to throw against and cause a ton of turnovers.
- RB – Mike James broke out with a huge game against the Seahawks last weekend and is now given a great matchup on MNF this weekend. He’s averaged an impressive 2.8 yards after contact so far and should be able to torch the Dolphins on the ground.
- WR – Vincent Jackson is being targeted a ton but he’ll have a really tough matchup this week. The Dolphins will likely focus on him heavily and force Glennon to look elsewhere. I’d say Jackson is best left for one tournament team in multi-entries.
- TE – Tim Wright has a TD reception in each of the last 2 games and with Mike Williams out he’s emerged as Glennon’s second favorite target. I like his upside as a cheap, under the radar type play.