Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 12
With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.
I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.
We are hitting the home stretch of the NFL season and we finally have a large enough sample size to make better educated guesses. Don’t forget to trust your gut and your research. I’ve made plenty of roster building mistakes making early Sunday morning lineup swaps into suboptimal changes. It happens to all of us. It is a good reminder for everyone, myself included, to stick to your guns. Let’s get to it.
Here are the picks this week:
QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers, $7,300
Colin Kaepernick continues to be a value on a weekly basis across the industry and Week 12 is no different. He’s coming off a rough two game stretch with road wins at the Saints and Giants where he wasn’t required to throw the football all over the yard. His two game averages in that span are modest at best: 48% completion percentage, 201.5 yards passing, one touchdown and 23 yards rushing. It is encouraging that the 49ers are designing runs for Kaepernick again though. Eight of his 12 rushing attempts in that span have been designed runs – including two red zone carries.
Kaepernick gets to return home and await the pitiful Washington defense. The Redskins have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season with an average of 19.3 per game. Kaepernick already has three more red zone rushing attempts than he had in all of 2013 – yet has zero touchdowns compared to four last year. He’s due. Washington has also been shredded through the air in recent weeks. In their last two games, they have given up an average of 278 yards passing and 1.5 touchdowns. Josh McCown completed 65% of his passes with an aDOT of 14.9 yards downfield. There should be no reason for the 49ers to take Washington lightly with a tightening NFC playoff race.
Colin Kaepernick Projection
Att: 32.8
Comp: 21.6
Yards: 254.6
PTD: 1.9
Int: 0.6
RYards: 38.3
RTD: 0.5
QB Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles, $7,500
Fantasy football can be a fickle game sometimes. Mark Sanchez was having by all accounts a horrendous start in Green Bay before piling it on in garbage time. PFF graded Sanchez as having the third worst QB performance of Week 11. But like we always say on the Grinders Live shows – garbage points count just as much as regular points. Outside of looking at his box score, anyone watching the game might be less inclined to roll Sanchez out this week. Advantage us.
This week Mark Sanchez and the Eagles face off against the Titans at home. Tennessee is fresh off losing a closer than expected contest on Monday Night Football and now bring their top 8 defense against quarterbacks with them. That figure is misleading because PFF grades the Titans as a bottom six pass defense – so some people will overlook the Eagles just based on the perceived tough matchup. The Titans did give Ben Roethlisberger fits by blitzing him on 50% of his drop backs leading to a QB rating of 54.9, an interception and three sacks on those plays. In a small sample size, Sanchez is actually thriving when blitzed this year. He has one of the quickest average times to throw in the league at 2.5 (0.3 faster than Nick Foles) and his quarterback rating is 28.9 points higher when blitzed. Try it Titans, just try it. The Eagles should steam roll the Titans this week.
Mark Sanchez Projection
Att: 36.3
Comp: 23.5
Yards: 251.1
PTD: 1.8
Int: 0.6
RYards: 1.3
RTD: 0.1
RB LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles, $7,700
LeSean McCoy, I wish I knew how to quit you. McCoy has been featured in this column more often than not this season mostly because his lack of fantasy production defies logic. According to Mike Clay’s oTD metric, McCoy should have two more rushing touchdowns than he has currently based on opportunity inside the red zone. Running backs that average 21 carries over their last six games should be more productive than McCoy has been. At least the Eagles have four of their five projected starting offensive lineman back and healthy sans Todd Herremans that will help recreate some consistency and recapture some of the success the unit had in 2013 running the football.
The matchup with the Titans is what puts the struggling McCoy in our cross hairs this week. The Titans have been a bottom five run defense all year and Pro Football Focus grades them as the worst run defense by a wide margin. We don’t have to look further back than last week to see that Le’Veon Bell totaled 222 yards and a touchdown on Monday Night Football. McCoy is almost a lock for 100 yards and a touchdown if he sees over 20 carries as expected.
LeSean McCoy Projection
Car: 23.4
Yards: 117.7
TD: 0.8
Rec: 2.2
ReYards: 12.7
ReTD: 0.1
RB Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts, $5,700
It feels morally wrong to promote a player who just ran seven times into a wall and gained zero yards last week, but that is what we are left with at this point of the season. Yes, Trent Richardson has a pulse and is the lone survivor in the Colts’ backfield facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Jacksonville has the fourth worst run defense per PFF and they have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year. Is Richardson going to eclipse the 160 combined yards and a touchdown the Jaguars surrender each week? Likely not, but at least we have a defense that could make him look like an above average NFL starter.
Richardson had one of his better days this season in Week 3 at Jacksonville with 80 combined yards on 17 touches. If he could replicate that this week and find the end zone – we would take that given his suppressed salary across the industry. Make no mistake; this is all about opportunity over talent. The Colts should throttle the Jaguars, putting Richardson in position to see an ample amount of carries in the second half.
Trent Richardson Projection
Car: 16.6
Yards: 78.2
TD: 0.6
Rec: 4.0
ReYards: 26.9
ReTD: 0.1
RB Shane Vereen, New England Patriots, $6,500
Shane Vereen or Jonas Gray? Jonas Gray or Shane Vereen? In what seemed like a no brainer decision prior to Sunday night now looks a bit foolish that Gray rumbled for four touchdowns against the Colts. The game flow did not go as anticipated and the Patriots just ran the ball right at the Colts all game long rather than get in a back and forth shootout with Andrew Luck. Hindsight is 20-20, but this is a new week and Vereen again looks like the better fantasy play this weekend.
Detroit comes to Foxboro this week with their second ranked run defense per PFF and their top 10 defense against opposing running backs. The Lions have allowed the second-fewest yards (60.9) in the league and often times teams just stop trying to run the ball against them. However, they have allowed the fourth most receiving yards to running backs with an average of 5.9 catches for 52.0 yards each week. Las Vegas is projecting this to be a high-scoring affair and given Detroit’s ability to stop the run – Vereen is almost assured of being involved in the scoring. Given that Vereen disappointed many (myself included) last week, his ownership levels are going to be at all-time lows.
Shane Vereen Projection
Car: 8.5
Yards: 41.1
TD: 0.2
Rec: 5.3
ReYards: 43.7
ReTD: 0.4
RB Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns, $5,500
Ben Tate, we hardly knew ye. Running twice for negative nine yards last week was what finally did him in and he was sent to waivers (and later picked up by the Vikings). What this does for us is make the Cleveland situation a bit less murky. Yes, Terrance West remains but Isaiah Crowell looks to be the team’s choice as their feature back. In their last two games, Crowell has seen 11% more snaps, 5% more carries and 4% more targets than West has. That should expand now that Tate is out of the picture.
Atlanta has been the worst team at stopping opposing running backs in terms of fantasy points scored when we look at the entire season – though that is a bit skewed given their early season struggles. Since Week 6 when they allowed Matt Forte to total 157 yards and two touchdowns, they have been stingier against the run. We can argue that they haven’t faced a legitimate challenger since Baltimore in Week 7 and have since faced off against Detroit (Theo Riddick), Tampa Bay (Bobby Rainey and Charles Sims) and Carolina (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart). In that three game span they have allowed just 58.3 yards rushing. So which defense will show up against Cleveland? Probably somewhere in the middle of that. Temper expectations with the Browns’ running game in general because they have not been the same since center Alex Mack was lost for the season. However, if Josh Gordon does Josh Gordon things this week – there will be ample scoring opportunities for Crowell in the red zone for him to capitalize on.
Isaiah Crowell Projection
Car: 13.9
Yards: 64.4
TD: 0.8
Rec: 2.7
ReYards: 23.2
ReTD: 0.0
WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons, $8,000
The touchdown drought has reached seven games for Julio Jones. Positive regression is bound to kick in at some point, right? It’s funny how a two game average of seven catches for 89 yards can be disappointing but we need touchdowns as DFS players – especially on half PPR sites like FanDuel. Part of Jones’ production is that he is just so physically talented he can win most matchups although the Atlanta offense cannot sustain scoring drives to have enough touchdown scoring chances. For example, in his last two games Jones has two red zone looks and one catch while Roddy White has two red zone looks and two touchdowns in that span. Jones is dominating the share of targets 31% to White’s 25% so that will eventually need to balance out.
Atlanta returns to the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome after a lengthy time away from home. Cleveland comes to town with their improving defense and at first glance it may make sense to fade Jones because of a matchup with cornerback Joe Haden. The way the Browns have deployed their corners in the last four weeks – Haden will be at right corner matched up with Jones at split end about 30% of the time. Otherwise Jones has a more manageable matchup with Buster Skrine for the remainder of his offensive snaps. Skrine has allowed 19 catches for 262 yards and a touchdown in his last four games including a 28-yard touchdown to Mike Evans while Haden has allowed 19 catches for just 168 yards and zero touchdowns. Although both offenses have sputtered in recent weeks – there is shootout potential with the return of Josh Gordon for Cleveland. Jones finds the end zone this week.
Julio Jones Projection
Rec: 7.9
ReYards: 113.0
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0
WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns, $7,800
Josh Gordon frequented this column often last season and we finally get to unleash him like the Kraken in his first game back from a 10 game suspension. Should we be alarmed that he could have some rust after the layoff? Sure, but by all accounts Gordon is primed to finish the season strong and “tear this league up.” The fact that he is priced up across the industry speaks volumes.
It is important to remember this is a new coaching staff, a new offensive and a newish quarterback. Gordon did play two full games with Brian Hoyer in Week 3 and 4 last year before Hoyer was lost for the year in Week 5. Hoyer targeted Gordon on 28 percent of his throws for a two game total of 14 catches for 217 yards and a touchdown. Did we mention that Gordon averaged 6.2 catches for 117.6 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game over 14 weeks? He has the rare size and speed to truly dominate a football game regardless of the matchup.
Speaking of matchup, the 6-foot-3 225 pound Gordon will see the most of cornerback Robert McClain standing in at an imposing 5-foot-9 and 194 pounds. McClain saw significant work for the first time in weeks and promptly surrendered four catches on four targets for 74 yards and a touchdown against Carolina. The touchdown came on a 47-yard pass into the end zone. While it may seem risky to roll out Gordon this week – there are several factors working in his favor. Most importantly, the Browns are in a playoff push and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s offense has always featured an X receiver.
Josh Gordon Projection
Rec: 7.3
ReYards: 128.7
ReTD: 1.1
RuYards: 4.1
TD: 0.0
WR Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills, $7,500
This pick is largely contingent on the weather and field conditions in Buffalo, but as of Thursday morning press time, the game appears to remain on schedule. The Buffalo field crew just needs to figure out where to put the seven feet of snow so the game can be played. Also with the team receiving limited practice this week – a return to basics game plan works right into the favor of Sammy Watkins and a plus matchup against the weak Jets’ secondary. Watkins was held in check last week by cornerback Brent Grimes with just three catches for 32 yards on seven targets. He will find an easier go-around this week against Phillip Adams and Marcus Williams. Given the field conditions and Watkins’ two-game slide – he will largely be overlooked this week.
For the season, the Jets have been a bottom 10 defense against opposing wide receivers though they have improved some in their last two games against Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Adams and Williams are new to the starting lineup but both struggled in their last game out against the Steelers. Despite keeping them in check for most of the game – Williams surrendered eight catches for 71 yards and Adams gave up six catches for 174 yards, including an 80-yard touchdown to Martavis Bryant at the end of the game. As long as the Bills can give Kyle Orton time to throw, he will be able to find Watkins downfield and have the rookie return to his Week 7 and 8 form (12-279-3).
Sammy Watkins Projection
Rec: 6.5
ReYards: 103.0
ReTD: 0.9
RuYards: 0.9
TD: 0.0
WR Odell Beckham, New York Giants, $7,500
Odell Beckham is legit, or so says Richard Sherman. The rookie wide receiver continues to defy his detractors and each week turns into a route running clinic for opposing defensive backs. Ever since his two touchdown outburst against this same Dallas team, Beckham has averaged seven catches for 119 yards. He has overtaken the role as the deep threat from the flanker spot with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 17.7 yards downfield in his last two games. We know that the Giants are going to have to continue throwing the football as home underdogs this weekend.
Beckham was only in his second week as a full-time starter in Week 7 when he caught four passes for 34 yards and two touchdowns. One of those touchdowns came across his Week 12 cornerback foe Brandon Carr but the other came against the now-injured linebacker Justin Durant. In fact, the Giants were able to get Beckham matched up twice on Durant for a total of two catches for 14 yards and that touchdown. That is the added benefit of keeping Beckham off the line of scrimmage and allowing him to move in motion. Look for another big week out of the rookie from LSU.
Odell Beckham Projection
Rec: 5.7
ReYards: 100.1
ReTD: 1.1
RuYards: 2.3
TD: 0.0
TE Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears, $6,200
Martellus Bennett could be overlooked this weekend with everyone drooling over the fact that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are “back”. The veteran tight end had to pick up the slack earlier in the year when he had four touchdowns in the first three games and was a high volume reception player until the last two weeks. He had 13 red zone looks in his first eight games and only has one look in the last two games. However, one of the best ways to beat Tampa Bay is in the middle of the field against the zone coverage.
Tampa Bay ranks in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends, giving up an average of 6.0 catches for 64.3 yards and 0.2 touchdowns each week. In their last two games they have been even stingier with just an average of 2.5 receptions and 32 yards. However in looking back at their game logs, they have not faced many notable tight ends. They did shut down Jimmy Graham in Week 5 (2-36) but Greg Olsen caught eight passes for 83 and a touchdown in Week 1. That is more in line with what Bennett brings to the table and he should be a focal point of the offense. Even in his newer role as an dump off receiver (3.4 aDOT last two games), Bennett should post a solid stat line with a good chance of finding the end zone this week.
Martellus Bennett Projection
Rec: 6.3
ReYards: 70.2
ReTD: 0.7
TE Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins, $5,200
Charles Clay has been battling a balky knee all season which has limited his upside though he’s been a steady producer in recent weeks. He’s played 88% of the Dolphins snaps the last two games with an average of six catches for 38 yards while 22% of the total team targets. His touchdowns are down this year over last, but his metrics measure up almost exactly which the exception of touchdown rate. In fact, he already has 14 red zone targets through 10 games (2 touchdowns) which match his total from a full 16 games last season. Clay will see some positive regression soon.
Miami is a touchdown underdog on the road against a Peyton Manning-led team that is going to be fuming based on their pitiful performance at St. Louis last week. The simple translation is that Miami is going to need to throw the football and the middle of the field has been a huge weakness for Denver’s pass defense. They are one of the worst teams in the league at covering the tight end (6.1-61.5-0.6) on the season and have been even worse in recent weeks. Safety T.J. Ward has been the most responsible in his failures to cover the opposing tight ends with a recent four game total of 19 receptions for 161 yards and four touchdowns allowed. Clay isn’t going to light the world on fire but is about a 50% shot to find the end zone this week.
Charles Clay Projection
Rec: 5.0
ReYards: 66.7
ReTD: 0.5