Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 15
With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.
I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.
This week we could see an uptick in participants with the majority of fantasy football players done with their season-long leagues. That makes it even more important to find undervalued players. Last week we uncovered plenty of value plays that helped people cash their lineups. However, let’s forget the whole Peyton Manning/Demaryius Thomas stack idea.
Here are the picks this week:
QB Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns, $6,700
Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis might think that Johnny Manziel is a midget now, but the rookie could put up a giant performance in his first NFL start. In all honesty, I have had Johnny Football earmarked for this column all year when he got his first start – regardless of the opponent. He certainly was in consideration last week against the Colts, before the Browns’ coaching staff decided they needed one more week of smashing their head into a brick wall with Hoyer to know that he wasn’t the answer. We don’t hold grudges around these parts. JFF could be 20% plus owned this weekend and I wouldn’t care. We have to get excited about his rushing upside, and the price is right.
It’s not ideal to extrapolate 130 preseason snaps and 17 regular season snaps, but that is what we have to work with. First, let’s look at the data with the real bullets flying. Manziel has dropped back 11 times to pass and handed the ball off six times. That’s it. What we can see is that he has two quarterback scrambles for an unsustainable 18.2% scramble rate. He so happed to scramble for 13 yards and a touchdown on those two plays. During the preseason, Manziel scrambled five times on 70 drop backs (a more reasonable 7.1% scramble rate). The breakdown of his preseason running plays looks like this:
Scrambles: 5 for 49 yards
Designed Runs: 6 for 40 yards
Kneel Down: 1 for -1 yards
If I was a betting man, I would figure that offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will use Manziel similarly to how RG3 was used as a rookie and use his legs as much as possible on play-action and designed runs. The Bengals will not be an easy out though. They have only surrendered 243 yards passing and a touchdown on average in their last three games. They have allowed the fifth-most running yards to quarterbacks in the league despite allowing a single running yard over their last three games. Add in the fact that Manziel has weapons like Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron at his disposal and the upside that he has isn’t baked into his salary. The recently turned 22-year old should run wild this weekend.
Johnny Manziel Projection
Att: 30.5
Comp: 17.4
Yards: 221.6
PTD: 1.1
Int: 1.0
RYards: 39.6
RTD: 0.3
QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, $8,400
Tony Romo doesn’t have to wait long to avenge his home loss against the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day with the Cowboys traveling to Philadelphia for a Sunday night showdown. There has been some speculation that Romo re-tweaked his back in his last two games, though those reports have been shot down as speculation. His yardage totals have not been eye popping lately (averaging 202 last two games), but his 9.0 aDOT (average depth of throw) has been right on par with his season average. Did I mention this game has the highest over/under according to the Las Vegas odds?
The Eagles have shown some improvement in defending the pass in recent weeks, allowing 269 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in their last three games. For the season, they have still allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 283 yards and 2 touchdowns. If the interior of the Cowboys’ offensive line can improve on their performance from two weeks ago, this should be a different game. Philadelphia only blitzed on nine of 33 drop backs but picked off Romo twice and gathered a QB sack as well. The Eagles kept that same defensive game plan last week and Russell Wilson picked them apart with fewer weapons than Romo has in Dallas. Dropping more defenders into coverage can limit the big plays, but it is only masking the deeper issue. This projects as a game Romo will have to throw over 30 times, which should net him a 300 yard passing day.
Most will be scared off by Romo’s recent game logs and fear that he is going to revert back to his 199 yard and two interception performance from the last time out against the Eagles. Use that to your advantage and collect a top tier performance at a discount from the most expensive quarterbacks this week.
Tony Romo Projection
Att: 34.9
Comp: 23.4
Yards: 300.6
PTD: 2.6
Int: 0.9
RYards: 5.7
RTD: 0.1
RB Rashad Jennings, New York Giants, $7,200
Rashad Jennings started the beginning of last week high in everyone’s rankings because of the enticing matchup against the pitiful Titans’ run defense. As his ankle worsened throughout the week, he plummeted in the rankings, only to get a late boost when he was going to play. Andre Williams ultimately had the big fantasy day with 147 combined yards and a touchdown, while Jennings played just 22% of the snaps and touched the ball three times for 22 yards. That’s how it is going to happen this week too right? Well, Tom Coughlin has already stated that Jennings is ready for a full workload this week against Washington. Pro Football Focus did not grade Williams much better than an average performance last week given the matchup. We can use that to our advantage, because the public perception will be that Jennings has lost his role. In the world of what have you done for me lately, don’t forget that Jennings had 91 yards rushing and two touchdowns two weeks ago in Jacksonville.
The Redskins have a middle of the road run defense. In terms of raw numbers, they are a top-10 defense against opposing running backs in their last three games, allowing a combined 104.7 rushing and receiving yards and 0.7 touchdowns. That is a bit skewed because of how often teams take advantage of their porous pass defense. The Giants’ balance approach on offense (run the ball or pass it to Odell Beckham Jr.) means that taking a runner and a receiver from the same team wouldn’t be counterproductive. The Giants may be playing for pride at this point, but it doesn’t mean that Andre Williams is going to get an extended look at more playing time. The veteran runner should continue to earn his free agent paycheck from this offseason.
Rashad Jennings Projection
Car: 20.5
Yards: 87.5
TD: 0.8
Rec: 3.1
ReYards: 24.1
ReTD: 0.2
RB Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals, $7,100
It’s about time. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson finally stated this week what we’ve wanted him to say all along: Jeremy Hill is going to see the majority of the carries on a go-forward basis. Gio Bernard has not been the same player he was as a rookie (3rd ranked RB at PFF), and it’s possible the Bengals saw the writing on the wall and drafted Hill as a strong contingency plan all along. Pro Football Focus’ grades back up Hue Jackson’s assertion as well. Hill is ranked 16th while Bernard has plummeted to 39th among all running backs that have played at least 25% of their teams’ offensive plays. In the three weeks that Bernard missed due to injury, Hill gave us an early preview of his snap majority dominance with an average of 21 carries for 120.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.
Cleveland is a tough matchup this weekend for the Bengals’ running backs. In the middle of Hill’s impressive three-game starting audition was a 13-touch performance for 61 yards on national television when he was heavily owned on Thursday kickoff contests. The Browns have remained stingy against opposing runners in their last three games, allowing just 73.0 rushing yards for 0.3 touchdowns and 4.0 catches for 33.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns receiving. Hill has been the better runner than Bernard for most of the season, and he can still take advantage of his opportunity in a tough matchup because he is still priced across the industry as a RBBC option.
Jeremy Hill Projection
Car: 17.3
Yards: 91.9
TD: 1.1
Rec: 1.9
ReYards: 14.3
ReTD: 0.1
RB Chris Johnson, New York Jets, $5,300
Revenge game! Chris Johnson and the Jets have had a forgettable season to date, but with little to play for left, we can take a right turn on to Narrative Street with CJwhateverK returning to his old stomping grounds. The only way this works is if Rex Ryan buys into the idea this week. It wouldn’t be out of character for Ryan to channel his inner Jay Cutler DGAF to give Johnson one last chance at glory. It makes sense on some levels at least.
Johnson has been splitting time with Chris Ivory in recent weeks to the surprise of no one. He has seen 40% of the snaps and a 39% market share of the carries the last two weeks. That needs to increase for this recommendation to work. It helps that Tennessee has a putrid run defense. Over their last three games they have given up an average 161 combined yards and 1.3 touchdowns to opposing running backs. This might seem a little crazy, but sometimes it is the crazy ideas that work the best.
Chris Johnson Projection
Car: 16.5
Yards: 83.0
TD: 0.5
Rec: 2.5
ReYards: 19.8
ReTD: 0.2
RB Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints, $5,700
Give Pierre Thomas some consideration if you need another punt option at running back this weekend. Thomas has been slowly rounding into form since returning from injury and last week was on the field for 49% of the Saints’ offensive plays. There is a Narrative Street alert with Thomas as well. As John Paulsen of 4for4 tweeted out this week, Thomas is from Chicago and has averaged 154 total yards and 1.7 touchdowns in his three games played at Soldier Field.
We know at this point of his career that Thomas is not going to steal many carries away from Mark Ingram during the normal flow of the game, but he can continue to be the receiving back. Thomas will be needed when the Saints go up-tempo to make up ground quickly after Matt Forte grinds out sustaining drives against their defense. The Saints have been the worst defense in stopping running backs the past three weeks, but the Bears are a close second. The noteworthy item about that are the Bears’ struggles with receiving backs. In their last three games, they have surrendered an average of 8 catches for 50.7 yards. Thomas should be able to enjoy that type of home cooking this week.
Pierre Thomas Projection
Car: 6.0
Yards: 30.7
TD: 0.2
Rec: 4.3
ReYards: 46.1
ReTD: 0.1
WR Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants, $8,500
We are going to run out of superlatives to describe how awesome Odell Beckham is at some point. However, I don’t see that happening anytime soon. This is the four week in a row that he’s found his way into this column, and until the industry prices him accordingly, he will still find a way in here somehow. All he has done in his last three games is average 9.3 receptions for 122.0 yards and 1.0 touchdowns with 3.7 yards rushing and 32 punt return yards – you know, for sites that award special team touchdowns to individuals. Not to be undone by his Week 15 opponent Pierre Garcon (54.0 aDOT), Beckham threw a pass 55 yards downfield last week that was just incomplete. He now leads all NFL players with his small sample size average depth of throw.
At this point, his opponents don’t matter. It will certainly help that he is facing the middle of the road Washington defense in terms of defending wide receivers – the Redskins are allowing 11.8 receptions for 169.9 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. As it has been reported that Beckham moved around the formation last week, Beckham spent time in the backfield (5%) and was at RWR about 12% less than he had been to date, bumping up his time at LWR by 7% and the slot by 5%. It is a trend worth monitoring, because that brings the top three cornerbacks for the Redskins into discussion for his potential matchup. Based on each corners’ last three games, none of them stand much of a chance this week: David Amerson (11 catches on 13 targets, 237 yards and 4 TD), Bashaud Breeland (5 catches on 11 targets for 93 yards) and E.J. Biggers (5 catches on 6 targets for 65 yards). If Beckham continues to see over a 30% market share of the targets from Eli Manning, watch out. He is in contention to be the top overall projected wide receiver in my rankings this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. Projection
Rec: 7.7
ReYards: 132.6
ReTD: 1.1
RuYards: 2.6
TD: 0.0
WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys, $8,500
As we noted above under Tony Romo, Philadelphia’s pass defense has stiffened in recent weeks. There could be other attributing factors, but it appears that blitzing fewer times per game and putting more defenders into coverage has stopped the bleeding. For the entire season, the Eagles are the third worst team at defending wide receivers, allowing 13.2 catches for 191.2 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game. In their last three games, that has dropped down to 11.7 catches for 174.7 yards 1.0 touchdown. One of those games was the Turkey Game in Dallas where a plethora (or a flock?) of Eagles defenders held Bryant to just 4 catches for 73 yards. All three of his targets that he did not catch were passes broken up by defenders. It looks like Bryant’s main opponent this week will be a rematch with Cary Williams, who broke up the only target thrown at him two weeks ago.
Outside of the clunker Dallas put up two weeks ago, Bryant wasn’t really needed last week while Dallas cruised to an easy victory. This contest against Philadelphia will be closer, with the highest total of the weekend and the Eagles getting the token 3-point home field advantage. Variance will favor the bold this week that overlook Bryant’s recent “slump”. Don’t forget that he had six touchdowns in his four games prior to facing the Eagles.
Dez Bryant Projection
Rec: 7.8
ReYards: 118.3
ReTD: 1.4
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0
WR Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts, $5,700
Now that Donte Moncrief has unofficially won the third wide receiver job over Hakeem Nicks, we can start to consider him more than just a what-the-heck flier. I got lucky and paired Moncrief with Andrew Luck on some of my GPP lineups two weeks ago and caught lightning in a bottle. Three catches on four targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns. But to display how chasing points over opportunity can come back to bite you: Moncrief again caught three passes last week but for just 33 yards. That being said, Moncrief could be in for a larger role if Reggie Wayne remains limited. The Colts have been using plenty of “12” personnel since the return of Dwayne Allen, so we want Moncrief in as one of the top two receivers as much as possible.
If we flash back to the prior meeting between the Colts and Texans in Week 6, T.Y. Hilton scorched the Houston secondary for nine catches for 223 yards and a touchdown. That should be enough for the Texans to consider shading extra coverage towards him if not for Hilton’s recent success against his other opponents. That’s where Moncrief should see single coverage against either A.J. Bouye or Johnathan Joseph on the outside. In the Texans’ last three games, both Bouye (11-114-1) and Joseph (11-101-1) have been vulnerable. Despite some recent improvement, the Texans still rank as the worst team in the NFL defending wide receivers, allowing 15.8 catches for 202.1 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game. Moncrief should see a performance somewhere in between his last two outings that makes him a high-upside option for tournaments given his reduced salary.
Donte Moncrief Projection
Rec: 5.3
ReYards: 76.8
ReTD: 0.8
RuYards: 0.9
TD: 0.0
WR Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,800
Picking which Jacksonville receiver to play each weekend can seem like a game of roulette, however, Marqise Lee appears to be quietly separating from the pack. Lee has been the most productive of the trio despite playing the fewest number of snaps (77%) and the smallest market share of targets (20%). That should begin to show positive regression as the Jaguars play out the string. His consistency is a result of his usage. Of his 18 targets in the last three games, 14 have come under 10 yards. The team has taken deep shots in consecutive weeks that have paid off both times. Two weeks ago Lee caught a 34 yard target in the back of the end zone on Zackary Bowman for a touchdown, and then just last week he caught a 27 yard target over A.J. Bouye and turned it into a 31 yard gain.
Miami was not able to capitalize on Baltimore’s secondary woes with just 227 yards passing and a touchdown last week. One of the bigger misses in this column last week was attacking slot corner Matt Elam with Jarvis Landry. Landry had a solid day with six catches for 55 yards, but not the type of performance that will win you all the money. Allen Hurns will likely see most of Elam, and that puts Lee to deal with Lardarius Webb and Asa Jackson on the outside. Webb has surrendered 8 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown in his last three games while Jackson gave up 3 catches for 36 yards and the touchdown to Brian Hartline last week. Webb (97th) and Jackson (106th) rank near the bottom of the PFF cornerback rankings by a wide margin. This is not to say that the Jaguars are an offensive juggernaut, but if they are able to score a few touchdowns this weekend, Lee is likely going to be the biggest beneficiary at his bargain price across the industry.
Marqise Lee Projection
Rec: 5.9
ReYards: 72.5
ReTD: 0.3
RuYards: 1.5
TD: 0.0
TE Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers, $6,700
Don’t look now but Greg Olsen is making a strong push to be the second fantasy tight end this season behind Rob Gronkowski. That seems preposterous given Jimmy Graham’s track record, but with Graham’s health and Olsen’s heavy involvement in the passing game, it is becoming a legitimate talking point. Some of Olsen’s luster is lost this week with Cam Newton missing the game due to his car accident this week. That puts Derek Anderson in the spotlight, but don’t forget that Anderson started Week 1 against these same Buccaneers in Tampa Bay and came away with the win. Anderson played solid and Olsen was able to manage 11 targets (35.5% market share) from Anderson en route to an eight catch for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Olsen has seen 28% of the team targets the last two weeks and is playing every down despite some injury concerns of his own. One of the biggest reasons he is finding success is the team’s willingess to create winnable matchups. In that same two-game stretch, Olsen has been in the backfield 14% of the time and in the slot or split out wide 44% of the time. Olsen should have no issues finding the seams against Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 defense.
Greg Olsen Projection
Rec: 8.1
ReYards: 83.2
ReTD: 0.8
TE Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts, $5,400
Dwayne Allen is a forgotten man in Indianapolis and he caught just one pass for five yards in his return from injury last week. It’s been the Coby Fleener show in recent weeks, but this game sets up nicely for Allen to find the end zone.
Houston checks in as the toughest defense on opposing tight ends this year, allowing just 3.7 catches for 36.2 yards and 0.2 touchdowns on a weekly basis. But who have they faced? Outside of seeing Fleener and Allen back in Week 6, they have seen the likes of Delanie Walker, Larry Donnell and Heath Miller. Only nine of the 33 tight ends Houston has faced have over 100 PPR fantasy points for the season.
Allen played just 71% of the snaps last week, but ran a pass pattern on 65% of those plays. The volume will return and he is one of Andrew Luck’s best red zone weapons. He has four red zone touchdowns on seven targets and had a stretch in the middle of the season where he scored six touchdowns in a seven-game span. Luck should have no issues moving the ball through the air this week, and Allen figures to be one of the biggest under-the-radar beneficiaries.
Dwayne Allen Projection
Rec: 4.2
ReYards: 54.3
ReTD: 0.9