Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 17
With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.
I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks (with a probable lower ownership percentage) worth using in large field tournaments. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.
Week 17 is always particularly difficult to navigate. I will admit it feels like a letdown this week after most of the larger-scale DFS tournaments and season-long championships have concluded. It almost feels like a preseason week after trying to determine which teams are going to mail it in and what teams are fighting for their playoff lives. That being said, it doesn’t mean we should shy away from the DFS gridiron this week. If you have a good sense of each team’s motivation and opportunity, you could already be in a prime spot.
That being said, this week will be slightly abridged. Most of the data we’ve exploited to this point doesn’t hold the same weight this week, with several teams resting players or giving younger players a shot under the big lights. I do want to thank everyone for reading along this year. The comments and mentions on Twitter indicating that people are enjoying the column and are having success using some of the recommendations means a lot to me.
Here are my FanDuel picks this week:
QB Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins, $6,600
It’s funny how fast things can change in the NFL. One day Robert Griffin III is chopped liver, but now he is back as the starting quarterback and has an outside chance of returning to the team in 2015. There are a few things working in his favor this week. First, his price is suppressed across the industry after a “dud” game against Philadelphia. He failed to throw a touchdown pass, though he did connect with DeSean Jackson for completions of 51 and 55 yards last week while totaling an aDOT (average depth of throw) of 46.5 yards downfield. Had either of those connected for a score, his day would have been viewed much differently. RGIII has been more of himself lately. In his last two games, he has a scramble rate of 11.8% and eight of his 10 runs for 57 yards have been scrambles. Factor in a 68.2% completion percentage and a respectable 8.8 aDOT, and it’s easy to be reasonably optimistic about Griffin this week.
The matchup with Dallas looks difficult on the surface. On the season, they have only given up an average of 257 yards passing, 1.4 touchdowns and 7.0 yards rushing per game to opposing quarterbacks. The matchup could become much easier for Washington if Dallas coasts into Wild Card weekend. Dallas does not have much of a chance to improve their playoff seeding, and the trip to the nation’s capital may not rank high on their priority list if they hope to rest starters and avoid injuries. Also, back in Week 8, Colt McCoy pulled off the upset win and rushed seven times for 16 yards and a touchdown (on a designed run). You can also be sure that RGIII will know when his favorite receiver is lined up against Brandon Carr (that’s what we call foreshadowing).
Robert Griffin III Projection
Att: 31.9
Comp: 19.5
Yards: 219.2
PTD: 1.6
Int: 0.8
RYards: 31.0
RTD: 0.1
QB Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, $8,600
Usually it is not advisable to chase points from last week, but Russell Wilson is in prime position to post another top-notch performance. Seattle is in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs – something their opponents should be shaking in their boots about. St. Louis should be able to keep it close on the scoreboard for at least a half, and they are tougher against the run than the pass. On the season, the Rams give up an average of 259 yards and 1.2 touchdowns to opposing passers and have allowed the ninth-most running yards to quarterbacks, with 15.0 yards and 0.2 touchdowns allowed on average. Wilson could exceed that total with just one scramble.
In Wilson’s last two games, he has run 11 times for 115 yards and a touchdown, with a split of five scrambles and six designed runs. He has also accounted for 18% of the team’s rushing attempts in that span. Way back in Week 7, Wilson threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns and ran the ball seven times for 106 yards and a rushing touchdown against these same Rams.
Russell Wilson Projection
Att: 29.3
Comp: 18.3
Yards: 232.7
PTD: 1.6
Int: 0.4
RYards: 50.6
RTD: 0.6
RB C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos, $8,300
Denver has plenty of reasons to defeat its divisional rival, Oakland. The Broncos will receive a first round bye if they can take care of business this weekend. If they lose and Cincinnati wins, they would fall to the third seed. Regardless of what you believe about Peyton Manning’s performance of late, C.J. Anderson remains the biggest beneficiary of however the game-script goes. If Denver decides to grind out the clock, Anderson should continue to see 91% of the snaps and 85% of the rushing attempts like he has in the past two games. If Manning needs to check down often like he did last week to Anderson (10 targets, 23% of targets), he’ll pile on the receptions.
Not to beat a dead horse, but Oakland has given up the second most fantasy points to running backs this year, with 103.7 yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns (and 5.0 catches for 49.3 yards and 0.5 receiving touchdowns) allowed on average.
C.J. Anderson Projection
Car: 22.7
Yards: 99.5
TD: 0.7
Rec: 4.1
ReYards: 42.9
ReTD: 0.2
RB Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens, $6,900
The Ravens find themselves in a peculiar situation this weekend – on the outside of the current playoff picture looking in. The perennial playoff contender needs San Diego to lose a tough road contest in Arrowhead Stadium, and obviously Baltimore needs to take care of business at home against the Browns. Cleveland will be starting undrafted free agent Connor Shaw from South Carolina, who is making his first career start. If that isn’t waving the white flag early, I’m not sure what is. With Joe Flacco hitting the skids last week, it’s a sure bet that the Ravens restart the running game against the Browns’ league-worst run defense.
Cleveland has allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs this year and the per game averages are eye-popping: 147.7 yards rushing and 1.0 touchdown and 4.3 receptions for 38 yards receiving and 0.3 touchdowns allowed on average. Forsett’s struggles could be attributed to injury the last two weeks, as he has averaged just 2.6 yards per carry for a total of just 67 yards rushing combined in the two games. By all accounts, however, Forsett is a full-go this week, so he will look to run the Ravens into the playoffs.
Justin Forsett Projection
Car: 20.8
Yards: 89.7
TD: 0.8
Rec: 3.2
ReYards: 22.4
ReTD: 0.0
RB Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings, $6,400
If you are going to roster some of the higher priced options this week, you need to save some cap space, and your second running back looks like the place to accomplish that. Matt Asiata has been quietly racking up 20-point games like they are going out of style and has a history (well at least in the last year) of late season heroics. He infamously scored three touchdowns in the fantasy playoffs last year and then followed that up with 115 yards rushing in Week 17. Minnesota is a healthy 7-point favorite against Chicago at home, and this game script sets up nicely for Asiata to end the season strong, especially if the Jay Cutler DGAF version shows up and gives the Vikings some short fields to work with.
Asiata has seen 70% of the snaps, 65% of the rushing attempts and 18% of the targets in his last two games. Chicago has been one of the worst teams against the run this year, allowing 94.7 yards, 0.7 touchdowns and 5.7 catches for 47.7 yards and 0.2 touchdowns to running backs each game. Sometimes it is that easy.
Matt Asiata Projection
Car: 14.5
Yards: 58.4
TD: 0.7
Rec: 3.6
ReYards: 23.5
ReTD: 0.1
RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,200
After a closer examination of the numbers, it was surprising to see Doug Martin with 69% of the Buccaneers’ rushing attempts in their last two games. He and Charles Sims have settled into their roles nicely – Martin as the primary runner and Sims as the receiving back. It’s hard to figure out which team may have given up more already, but let’s side with the home team facing a rush defense that is atrocious at this point. New Orleans has, on average, given up 114.7 yards and 0.7 touchdowns and 4.7 receptions for 62.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns in their last three games. Martin is unlikely to ever recapture his 2012 rookie form; however, this could be one of his last chances to show he still belongs as a starter in this league.
Doug Martin Projection
Car: 18.6
Yards: 84.6
TD: 0.6
Rec: 1.6
ReYards: 12.9
ReTD: 0.2
WR Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants, $9,200
It says a lot about Odell Beckham Jr. that he remains the top wide receiver on the board, despite the highest price tag. In fact, he could still end up as the best value on the day too.
It ended up being a huge mistake on my part to fade him last week, but I won’t make that mistake again in a meeting between Beckham and the Eagles’ cornerbacks, Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams. The Eagles have given up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, with 12.8 catches for 190.7 yards and 1.4 touchdowns surrendered per week. The Eagles’ dynamic duo is largely responsible for that. They have combined to allow an aDOT of 14.1 yards and have given up 110 receptions (201 targets) for 1,734 yards and 14 touchdowns in all. Did we mention they have allowed 14 catches over 30 yards? Odell Beckham last faced the Eagles in Week 6 before he was the ODELL BECKHAM JR. we know now. He caught one pass against each cornerback for a total of 28 yards. It will be a different story this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. Projection
Rec: 7.8
ReYards: 116.5
ReTD: 1.3
RuYards: 2.1
TD: 0.0
WR Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings, $6,100
You have to feel sorry for Kyle Fuller. The rookie cornerback was off to a great start this year, but he has slipped gradually each week to the point that he now grades as the worst cornerback in the NFL. He grades out as the 110th-ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible players this year, per Pro Football Focus. Dead. Last. It was really the beginning of the end for him when Calvin Johnson tossed him around on Thanksgiving. In Fuller’s last four games, he has given up 30 receptions for 419 yards and 2 touchdowns. Why do we care about this? Well, Charles Johnson hopes to continue to the dominance of split-end receivers against the rookie. And with Teddy Bridgewater finally breaking out, it’s a distinct possibility that Johnson has a big game.
It was back in Week 11 at Chicago that Johnson broke out with six catches for 87 yards, and he’s been a mainstay in the lineup since then. In the last two weeks, he has played 93% of the snaps and has seen 19% of the targets. It isn’t just Fuller that is the problem with the Bears’ defense. They are a bottom-10 defense overall against wide receivers, allowing 12.5 receptions for 176.7 yards and 1.1 touchdowns per week.
Charles Johnson Projection
Rec: 4.9
ReYards: 78.6
ReTD: 0.7
RuYards: 2.3
TD: 0.0
WR DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins, $7,000
It wouldn’t be a wrap on the 2014 season without us, one final time, targeting Cowboys’ cornerback, Brandon Carr. DeSean Jackson is the lucky participant this week, and he will look to expand on his big Week 16 performance and put an exclamation point on his up-and-down season. The two matched up back in Week 8, when the popgun-armed Colt McCoy was at quarterback. Jackson still caught two passes on Carr for a total of 54 yards. Don’t be fooled by Carr’s good performance last week against the Colts. He allowed just two catches for 21 yards on five targets, but the whole Colts team was out of sync. He’s still listed as the 98th-ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible players, according to PFF.
Jackson leads the league in receptions (5) on targets thrown over 40 yards downfield. Two of those catches came last week against Bradley Fletcher, and another of those two came back in Week 8, with Sterling Moore and then Carr in coverage. Only one of those five catches has led to a touchdown, so if RGIII can hit him in stride this week, it’s a good bet he takes one of them to the house.
DeSean Jackson Projection
Rec: 5.9
ReYards: 105.2
ReTD: 1.0
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0
WR Albert Wilson, Kansas City Chiefs, $5,600
Albert Wilson has slowly made a name for himself the past few weeks, and he’s now a fantasy-relevant option, with the Chiefs hoping to slip into the playoffs somehow. Wilson was undrafted this year out of Georgia State and was a favorite of the NFL Draft metrics crowd, despite being a slot receiver with a running back build.
Wilson has settled in as the split end receiver for Kansas City the last two weeks and has played 78% of the team’s snaps, while seeing 16% of the team’s targets. He caught eight of 11 targets in that span for a total of 156 yards. The switch to Chase Daniel at quarterback shouldn’t hinder Wilson’s success much. The two hooked up three times on three targets for 27 yards and a 7.3 aDOT in the preseason. Wilson’s matchup this week couldn’t be any better than facing Shareece Wright (who ranks 107th out of 110 cornerbacks per PFF), unless he was up against Kyle Fuller. Wright has been dreadful this year and is fresh off of surrendering a touchdown to Bruce Ellington last week against San Francisco. Given Jamaal Charles’ uncertain heath status this weekend, Andy Reid may have to revert back to his pass-happy ways, which makes Daniel and Wilson a nice contrarian GPP stack.
Albert Wilson Projection
Rec: 5.0
ReYards: 73.0
ReTD: 0.5
RuYards: 1.9
TD: 0.0
TE Tim Wright, New England Patriots, $4,500
Tight end is a tough position to figure out this weekend. As Adam Levitan pointed out in his column this week, most of the tight ends are not rosterable for one reason or another. In an effort to punt the position and spend elsewhere, why not go for a player likely to play the entire game with little competition for targets? Enter Tim Wright, especially with Gronkowski unlikely to play the entire game. The fact that Wright plays so much split out wide (12% out wide, 53% slot) means he could end up being the primary receiver for Brady or Garoppolo.
Wright’s recent game logs are going to fly under the radar (2 catches for 24 yards in his last four games), and he has been invisible since his Week 12 outburst of five catches for 36 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit. Buffalo also checks in the toughest against tight ends this season, with just an average of four catches for 36 receiving yards allowed per game and just two touchdowns given up all season. Wright is about as off the board as you can find this week, but he could far exceed his minimum-priced salary across the industry.
Tim Wright Projection
Rec: 5.2
ReYards: 72.3
ReTD: 0.6
TE Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders, $5,200
Mychal Rivera is another low cost option this week with the potential to exceed value. His last game out was forgettable (1 catch for 5 yards) against the tough Buffalo defense we just mentioned, but before that he had consecutive strong weeks (7-109-1, 7-39). He had another strong game the last time the Raiders played the Broncos (6-64-1), and now this week Oakland is a huge road underdog. Denver’s defense hasn’t improved much against tight ends and they still rank as a bottom-five unit, allowing an average of 8.0 receptions for 67.7 yards and 0.7 touchdowns in their last three games. Rivera should be a primary target all day for Derek Carr, having played 86% of the snaps and receiving 16% of the team’s targets in his last two games.
Mychal Rivera Projection
Rec: 5.9
ReYards: 70.1
ReTD: 0.5