Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 4

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-09-29 17:41:48

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day – simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.

I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

As the season progresses, there will be more data to include with each player. Three games is a small sample size to draw many meaningful conclusions at this point, but that doesn’t mean we can’t use the advanced data to find some good plays.

Here are the picks this week:

QB Tom Brady – Patriots at KC

Tom Brady is washed up, right?

The local media is calling this the demise of the Patriots’ run of dominance and it is well documented that Brady struggles with the deep ball at age 37. The Patriots offense couldn’t even beat up on the Raiders, why should we care? Because no one is going to be looking at Brady and the Chiefs still have a horrible pass defense. Recency bias will kick in after the Chiefs stopped Ryan Tannehill last week (5 sacks, 49% completion percentage and just 205 yards passing), but is that really an accomplishment given the circus in Miami this week?

After a disastrous start to the season, Brady has turned in two solid performances that have come up short in the fantasy box score. There are not any of his underlying passing metrics that appear to be off and his poor Week 1 is skewing his numbers terribly. It hasn’t helped that his starting guards have allowed three sacks, four hits and 11 hurries over three games. Rob Gronkowski is rounding back into form and has seen his snaps increase from 44.2% in Week 1 to 59.7% last week. Having him as a larger part of the offense will help.

Even with Tannehill struggling last week, Kansas City is allowing 238 yards passing and two touchdowns a game without a single interception. They have allowed 45% of their passing yardage after the catch – a weakness that plays into Brady’s strength. The Patriots offense works best when throwing the ball off play action or under 2.5 seconds. Brady doesn’t have the mobility in the pocket any longer to sit and survey the field. We can expect a heavy dosage of Julian Edelman and Gronkowski and be treated to a vintage Brady performance on the national stage.

Tom Brady Projection

Att: 39.9
Comp: 27.9
Yards: 306.5
PTD: 2.4
Int: 0.5
RYards: 1.4
RTD: 0.0

QB Blake Bortles – Jaguars at SD

Starting rookie quarterbacks on the road is not always a sound strategy, but seeing Blake Bortles in relief last week was exciting. It is hard to fathom why he was sitting behind Chad Henne after he quickly showed he had the skill to play at this level. Sure the two interceptions hurt, but at least he was being aggressive with the football down the field.

The Chargers’ grind it out strategy on offense has had a positive impact on their defense – they are allowing a league low 57 plays per game. Despite the attempt to shorten the game their defense is still allowing 250 yards passing and 1.7 touchdowns with zero interceptions per week. Even more shocking is that 60% of their passing yardage allowed has been after the catch.

Bortles dazzled in the preseason but a half a football in a blowout is tough to draw any meaningful conclusions. The Jaguars did run two designed plays for him (no scrambles) for 30 yards on the ground and his aDOT (average depth of throw) would rank 5th among all quarterbacks if he qualified. Did I mention his fantasy points per drop back even tops Andrew Luck? All kidding aside, Jacksonville is the largest underdog this weekend and we know that the game script is going to lead to an abundance of drop backs for Bortles. With his offensive weapons rounding into form like Allen Robinson and a healthy Cecil Shorts – a big fantasy day could be had for a fraction of the cost of the other quarterbacks on the board.

Blake Bortles Projection

Att: 29.2
Comp: 18.3
Yards: 241.2
PTD: 2.3
Int: 0.7
RYards: 22.0
RTD: 0.2

RB Le’Veon Bell – Steelers vs TB

Le’Veon Bell has a plum matchup at home against a struggling Buccaneers defense that you will regret fading. Bell has been one of the best running backs in the league through three weeks and his heavy usage presents a consistent floor with a high ceiling as well. Some might be off him since he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. He is averaging 2.7 red zone carries, 5 targets and 18 carries per week. The Steelers’ offensive line has improved this year which has helped Bell take that next leap – his yards before contact (vision) is up 1.4 yards per attempt and yards after contact are up a full yard per attempt over last season.

Tampa Bay is the brink of implosion at 0-3 with a 50 point scoring differential. They have been run on all three games this year – 126 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per week with a sloppy 18% missed tackle rate. With Pittsburgh as one of the larger home favorites, look for Bell to shoulder a heavy workload in route to a monster fantasy day.

Le’Veon Bell Projection

Car: 19.8
Yards: 102.1
TD: 1.1
Rec: 4.0
ReYards: 32.6
ReTD: 0.2

RB Lamar Miller – Dolphins at OAK (London)

Lamar Miller showed us what he could do as the feature back last week with excellent success. He took advantage of a Chiefs defense set on stopping Ryan Tannehill and ran against six man fronts on 94.4% of the time. That was evident by his 4.5 yards per attempt rushing prior to contact and 2.7 yards after contact.

That being said, Oakland has struggled stopping the run (Chris Ivory/Arian Foster) until last week when they held the Patriots to 76 yards on 32 carries – including Stevan Ridley to 19 carries for 54 yards. That was a clear defensive philosophy shift this past week as they went nickel on only about 50% of their plays, down significantly from the prior two weeks.

If the Dolphins go to a back to basics attack this week because of all the turmoil in the media regarding the coaching staff and Tannehill – Miller will capitalize on the opportunity. Neither Miami backup poses any threat to the majority of the touches. Miller is one of the best bargains in the industry this week.

Lamar Miller Projection

Car: 17.6
Yards: 96.3
TD: 0.6
Rec: 1.2
ReYards: 14.7
ReTD: 0.1

RB Eddie Lacy – Packers at CHI

Eddie Lacy’s season couldn’t have started any worse than this. After a horrendous stretch of games against some of the toughest run defenses in the NFL (NYJ 2th, SEA 5th, and DET 6th) – Lacy gets a reprieve with a more ideal matchup at Chicago. The Bears have allowed 145 yards (77 after contact) the last three weeks while missing 17% of their tackle attempts. Lacy averages about 34% missed tackle rate per touch.

The comments from the coaching staff condemning Lacy’s poor play is just coach speak. We will quickly find out that most running backs will struggle against that trio of run defenses this year. James Starks seeing 19 snaps after only 4 the week before was a circumstance of game flow rather than a reflection of Lacy’s performance. It is doubtful you will find many Lacy believers this week despite the enticing matchup. Capitalize on that fear and trepidation.

Eddie Lacy Projection

Car: 20.8
Yards: 87.7
TD: 0.4
Rec: 2.8
ReYards: 21.0
ReTD: 0.2

RB Darren McFadden – Raiders vs MIA (London)

After watching back the Oakland/New England game, Darren McFadden was in on seemingly offensive touch (slight exaggeration) and looked halfway decent. That’s all we are looking for in a punt play, and he hits the bill this week despite Maurice Jones-Drew looking like he could return to action. McFadden had 21 touches last week and had a touchdown called back due to a penalty late in the game – otherwise his box score would have popped more.

This game will be played overseas but that doesn’t help the fact that the Dolphins have been gashed against the run the past two weeks. They have given up 287 yards the last two games (3.9 avg.) with a whopping 150 yards of that coming after first contact. If McFadden can continue to see work in the passing game (4 catches last week) and gain more than 1.5 yards per reception he should have a fantasy day that meets his industry value.

Darren McFadden Projection

Car: 18.8
Yards: 82.4
TD: 0.8
Rec: 2.0
ReYards: 13.6
ReTD: 0.0

WR Andre Johnson – Texans vs BUF

Andre Johnson’s slow start to the season has suppressed his salary across the industry to the point that it is hard to look elsewhere for a receiver this weekend. A lack of a touchdown catch is mostly to blame for his price reduction though the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t helped either. Things are looking up with a matchup against Stephon Gilmore in Week 4. Gilmore has allowed receivers to catch 90% (9 of 10 targets) of the footballs thrown his way for 100 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks.

We still don’t know who the de facto number one receiver is in Houston but the advanced metrics tell us that it is still Johnson over Hopkins. Johnson has the higher target rate per pass route (28.6% to 21.4%) and more red zone targets (5 to 1). Hopkins does have the edge in the touchdown department, but neither has come in the red zone. Using Mike Clay’s oTD opportunity adjusted metric, Johnson should have 1.4 touchdowns given the opportunities he has seen. He’s “due” to find the end zone this weekend.

Andre Johnson Projection

Targets: 12.5
Rec: 8.1
ReYards: 105.1
ReTD: 0.7
RuYards: 0.2
RuTD: 0.0

WR Julian Edelman – Patriots at KC

Julian Edelman has been putting in overtime the past two weeks as Brady’s top target. He’s netted a 30% target rate per pass route run with an average of 9 targets, 8 catches, 83 yards and a half touchdown in Weeks 2 and 3. Edelman has a safe floor this week but also some hidden upside that could make him a staple of your GPP lineups.
The lucky candidate to cover Edelman at flanker and slot is Marcus Cooper. Here how he’s fared the last two weeks in coverage:

Marcus Cooper Coverage Stats

It won’t be hard for Edelman to rack up the statistics against Cooper. The fact that Gronkowski isn’t full strength yet and Aaron Dobson being in the dog house means there is no competition for targets. Fire him up for Monday night.

Julian Edelman Projection

Targets: 10.0
Rec: 7.3
ReYards: 104.7
ReTD: 0.8
RuYards: 1.7
RuTD: 0.0

WR Brandin Cooks – Saints at DAL

The situation to monitor with Brandin Cooks this weekend is if Morris Claiborne is benched or not. Through three games, Claiborne has allowed 10 catches for 225 yards and three touchdowns – including two last week to the Rams. If Claiborne is moved down the depth chart, Orlando Scandrick would move out from the slot to right cornerback.

Cooks is surprisingly playing a lot at flanker this year with Marques Colston remaining in the slot. He’s become the underneath security blanket for Drew Brees and is seeing the volume that used to be reserved for Darren Sproles from the backfield. New Orleans is a slight road favorite but they will still need to pass plenty to get the win in Dallas. It doesn’t hurt that the game will be played indoors.

Brandin Cooks Projection

Targets: 8.6
Rec: 6.5
ReYards: 75.2
ReTD: 0.5
RuYards: 6.9
RuTD: 0.1

WR Markus Wheaton – Steelers vs TB

Markus Wheaton has a date with one of the worst corners in the league this weekend in Johnthan Banks. Alterraun Verner will do his best to contain Antonio Brown and that will lead to plenty of looks towards Wheaton. Wheaton has done ad admirable job filling the void left by Emmanuel Sanders and his production has been solid with an average of 5 catches for 57 yards a week.
Banks is graded as one of the worst corners in the league per Pro Football Focus. He has allowed receivers to catch 13 of 15 passes for 144 yards over three games. Pittsburgh won’t have to pass much this weekend but it’s entirely plausible that Wheaton busts off a long play for a touchdown with Banks in coverage. Wheaton has the upside to help you win a GPP.

Markus Wheaton Projection

Targets: 6.8
Rec: 5.6
ReYards: 67.3
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 5.0
RuTD: 0.1

TE Jimmy Graham – Saints at DAL

“If you aren’t playing him this week, then you are just going to lose.” – Dan Back
Jimmy Graham is the play of the weekend. I would only fade him in a large field tournament because the stars are aligning for a huge day this week. Dallas is by far the worse team through three games in covering opposing tight ends. Between Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Lance Kendricks and Jared Cook here is how they fared:

Cowboys vs TE – 2014

Basically nothing has worked. The Cowboys have tried their cornerbacks, safeties and linebackers in coverage without luck. Graham’s ability to line up out wide or in the slot will create various mismatches that Dallas is ill-equipped to handle. Don’t overthink this one.

Jimmy Graham Projection

Targets: 10.4
Rec: 7.9
ReYards: 96.7
ReTD: 1.1

TE Ladarius Green – Chargers vs JAX

While most would go with Antonio Gates here, there are a few reasons to pivot to Ladarius Green instead. It is clear the team doesn’t view Green as the starter in the short term but it could be another Green day this week. Against Buffalo, Green ran just 7 pass routes and racked up 10 PPR points (4-64) while Gates languished away with a lone catch. It is obvious Philip Rivers trusts Green when he needs to make a big play. A 71.4% target rate per pass route run is not sustainable but is worth nothing in a game that could turn into a blowout versus Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are fresh off getting torn up by Dwayne Allan and Coby Fleener. They have now surrendered a 10.4 aDOT, 8.3 catches, 98 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per week to opposing tight ends. For a minimum price point on most sites across the industry, Green makes a fine punt option with most people writing him off at this early juncture of the season.

Ladarius Green Projection

Targets: 6.9
Rec: 4.5
ReYards: 56.3
ReTD: 0.7