Advanced Matchup Plays - Week 8

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-10-26 17:00:36

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.

I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

Last week, three of our four under-the-radar wide receivers scored touchdowns (Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Corey Fuller). That is not likely to repeat anytime soon. Most of the running backs were landmines outside of Jamaal Charles, but at least Dwayne Allen chipped in a touchdown as well.

This week there are only 13 games available to us because of the early start of the Detroit and Atlanta game in London. With five of those games sporting an over-under of greater than 48 total points, we could see lots of offense this weekend. That makes it even more important to find the less heralded or recently disappointing players to gain an edge.

Here are the picks this week:

QB Nick Foles – Eagles at ARI

One thing that we should take note of for the remainder of the season is the salaries of players coming off a bye week. Nick Foles and the Eagles were on their bye week last week and he saw his salary drop across the industry. His salary drop was the fourth greatest among all quarterbacks according to the RotoGrinders Market Watch tool. This is as good of an example of recency bias as you are going to find.

Foles’ play so far this year has regressed by nearly every statistical measure from 2013 with the exception of taking fewer sacks on average despite a shaky offensive line. His touchdown and interception rates have normalized this year – whether that is normal regression to the mean or if opposing defenses have the book on him this year is the question. Regardless, he is underpriced for this week.

Arizona has the seventh ranked defense in the according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA and this doesn’t look like a good matchup on paper for the Eagles. However, in the last four games the Cardinals have given up an average of 313 yards passing (54% of yards after the catch), 1.8 touchdowns and a 67 percent completion percentage. That is slightly skewed by Peyton Manning’s career day of 479 yards passing. You get the idea though; this team can be had through the air. The most concerning thing for Arizona is their lack of pressure on the quarterback. In that same four game stretch, they have only hit opposing quarterbacks once a game and have just five sacks. Only about one of every four drop backs are they even pressuring the quarterback. If Foles has time to survey the field, a big day is in store for the Eagles.

Nick Foles Projection

Att: 37.6
Comp: 24.7
Yards: 265
PTD: 1.9
Int: 0.8
RYards: 12.1
RTD: 0.0

QB Teddy Bridgewater – Vikings at TB

So maybe it is a tad unorthodox to recommend a player at such an important position that has scored an average of 7.3 FanDuel points the past two weeks, but Teddy Bridgewater has a great matchup this week at Tampa Bay. We can make a compelling case why the rookie signal caller has struggled but it isn’t that complicated. He has faced two of the top five defenses in the NFL (DET and BUF) according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA and thrown five interceptions and was sacked 18 times. Talk about a beat down. Matt Kalil (five of the 18 sacks) and Charlie Johnson (three) have been arguably the worst left side of an offensive line in the NFL this year. So why the optimism? Because it’s the Buccaneers!

Tampa Bay is not playing good defense under Lovie Smith. In their last four games they’ve given up an average of 342 yards passing, 3.25 touchdowns and a 71 percent completion percentage. Tampa Bay is also not applying pressure to the quarterback. They have just 1.75 sacks, 3.25 quarterback hits and a 20 percent pressure rate in that same four game span. Of the 13 touchdowns allowed, three have come from outside the red zone. Those three passes from 25 yards and out (27, 40 and 56 yards) have been caught in the end zone or just before the end zone and walked in. That isn’t cornerbacks falling down and allowing lots of YAC – that’s an inability to cover receivers.

We will find out quickly if the Buccaneers are the cure to Bridgewater’s recent struggles. It’s hard to beat being the cheapest starting quarterback on FanDuel this week at just 53% of Peyton Manning’s salary.

Teddy Bridgewater Projection

Att: 34.9
Comp: 23.0
Yards: 261.8
PTD: 1.3
Int: 0.8
RYards: 17.6
RTD: 0.2

RB Ben Tate – Browns vs OAK

Doing something over and over again and expecting a different result. To some, that is the definition of insanity. To most DFS players, we don’t know any better even if the results say otherwise. Many were burned by Ben Tate last week; myself included, and will swear him off until they are proven otherwise. We can use this to our advantage and invest when others are fearful. There isn’t much that has changed with Tate’s situation from last week despite having an equally good matchup. John Greco started at center in place of Alex Mack but that wasn’t the issue. The entire right side of the offense line was dominated and will have an easier time with Oakland’s front seven this week.

Oakland has shown more life under interim coach Tony Sparano since their bye week but it doesn’t help they continually are gashed by the ground game. In their last three games, Oakland is allowing 118 yards and 1.3 touchdowns to opposing running backs. Even with Cleveland using a rotation at running back, Tate in the last two weeks has averaged 21 carries per game despite only receiving 60% of their market share of carries. Tate has the great matchup on paper but worries about his Week 7 performance and a perceived running-back-by-committee approach will keep his ownership levels low this weekend.

Ben Tate Projection

Car: 18.9
Yards: 79.9
TD: 0.8
Rec: 2.0
ReYards: 21.6
ReTD: 0.1

RB Alfred Morris – Redskins at DAL

Tony Romo versus….Colt McCoy? I’m not sure that is how the Monday Night Football producers drew up this matchup prior to the start of the season, but this is what we are left with. We know the story now. Kirk Cousins continued his implosion and Colt McCoy “saved” the day with 128 yards passing and a touchdown. It was more of the same we’ve came to expect from McCoy. His aDOT (average depth of throw) was just 3.0 yards downfield and he still managed to take two sacks on just 15 drop backs. Don’t let the 92% completion percentage fool you. So what does this mean for Alfred Morris? It means the Redskins may try to turn the tables on Dallas and play their own version of keep away.

Morris has struggled in his last two games but we have to wonder if that was a byproduct of Cousins’ struggles. Nonetheless, Morris still has received 75% of Washington’s rushing attempts in that same span and Dallas remains vulnerable on the ground. Dallas surrenders 104 yards per game to running backs but has only given up three touchdowns so far (Carlos Hyde and Arian Foster twice). We don’t know how good or bad Dallas’ defense is because they are only allowing a league-low 56.7 offensive plays to their opposition.

If Washington is going to have a chance of upsetting Dallas on the road, Morris is going to be need to be a key component of their offense. Again, Morris will be lightly owned this week with many of his owners still distraught over his poor Week 7 performance.

Alfred Morris Projection

Car: 19.0
Yards: 83.7
TD: 0.6
Rec: 1.6
ReYards: 10.6
ReTD: 0.1

RB Anthony Dixon – Bills at NYJ

Tell me if this formula repeats itself week after week in the NFL. Talented and underused player is elevated into a starting role and is going to light the DFS world on fire. Players plugging in Bryce Brown into their lineups may already be trying to count their winnings now. It is a good reminder to not overlook the steady veterans that are just as likely to see an uptick in value.

Anthony Dixon looks to be the lead back in the Bills’ newly formed committee and is running with the first team in practice. Dixon was an underrated prospect coming out of Mississippi State in 2010 and this is his first opportunity to see more than just situational and goal line work. Rookie expert Matt Waldman of FootballGuys ranked Dixon in his top five running backs that year with high potential to be a feature back. Circumstances being what they have been in his career, it is safe to say most think of Dixon as an afterthought. Remember that Brown is the player the Eagles parted with for a mid-round draft pick that looked like he had all the upside in the world.

The Jets are no longer the feared run defense they were several weeks ago after they have allowed a total of 370 yards (4.2 YPC) and a touchdown in the last three weeks. We should expect Buffalo to continue their strong play with a win on the road.

Anthony Dixon Projection

Car: 10.9
Yards: 56.3
TD: 0.4
Rec: 2.3
ReYards: 11.1
ReTD: 0.1

RB Travaris Cadet – Saints vs GB

Only a running back on the Saints could be a viable punt option this week with only three carries through six games this year. Travaris Cadet stepped up big last week in relief of Pierre Thomas, playing 30 percent of the offensive snaps and receiving 19 percent of Drew Brees’ passes. In that limited duty, Cadet saw seven targets on just 18 patterns – a staggering target rate of 39 percent.

This game has the highest point total of the weekend and it is likely the Saints could be without both Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Cadet wouldn’t see many carries but his pass-catching prowess will lead to a big day on full PPR sites for a minimum price tag.

Travaris Cadet Projection

Car: 3.1
Yards: 15.8
TD: 0.0
Rec: 4.6
ReYards: 42.9
ReTD: 0.3

WR Julian Edelman – Patriots vs CHI

Julian Edelman failed to deliver last week in a plus matchup against the Jets. He’s another player that should be in for a nice rebound game that most will overlook. Edelman is as consistent as one could expect for a No. 1 receiver and his three subpar games in his last four games actually make him more enticing to use this week against Chicago.

Chicago’s defense is regressing horribly in recent weeks and they have not been able to cover opposing slot receivers. In their last four games, the Bears are allowing an average of 6.5 receptions for 74 yards and 0.75 touchdowns to slot receivers. Part of their problem is mixing and matching with their defensive backs due to injury, and the lack of consistency is what teams are capitalizing on.

Receivers that average nine targets per game do not grow on trees and Edelman’s suppressed price tag makes him a must start this week.

Julian Edelman Projection

Rec: 7.4
ReYards: 95.1
ReTD: 0.2
RuYards: 1.0
TD: 0.0

WR Cordarrelle Patterson – Vikings at TB

You would struggle to name a larger fantasy disappointment this season than Cordarrelle Patterson. He was supposed to the second coming of Josh Gordon in Norval Turner’s downfield passing attack and thus far he’s struggled with pass routes to get open. At least Patterson was able to score his first touchdown of 2014 against Buffalo on a goal line bubble screen.

The coaching staff has already indicated they are not going to go out of their way to manufacture touches for the second year player, but the dearth of bubble screens says otherwise. If you want to look for the silver lining, on his bubble screens he had an aDOT of 0.5 yards but they did throw to him deep twice without connecting. His aDOT on those two targets was 35 yards downfield.

Given Tampa Bay’s inability to cover any wide receivers and their 32nd rank against the position in terms of fantasy points allowed, this would be a great week to try a few more of those deep throws to Patterson or more bubble screens to see if he can break one long for a touchdown.

Cordarrelle Patterson Projection

Rec: 5.8
ReYards: 67.0
ReTD: 0.5
RuYards: 3.3
TD: 0.0

WR Jeremy Maclin – Eagles at ARI

Much like Foles above, Jeremy Maclin is benefiting from recency bias, especially with his 16 yard dud in Week 6 prior to the bye week. That one we can chalk up to the improved play of Prince Amukamara and little reason to run up the score in a shutout effort against the Giants.

This week with the Cardinals on the schedule we should see a primetime matchup between Maclin and Patrick Peterson. At least from a fantasy standpoint, Peterson isn’t as intimidating a player as his press clippings would suggest. In fact, Maclin may have the upper hand given his similarities to Desean Jackson. Here is Peterson’s coverage data year to date:

Patrick Peterson Coverage 2014 YTD

He isn’t letting up touchdowns every week but this also shows that he is not invincible. His presence may be enough to sway people from rolling Maclin in their lineups and that would be a mistake. Arizona has allowed wide receivers to total 18 catches for 244 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on a weekly basis. It would not be shocking to see Maclin as the top scoring wideout of Week 8.

Jeremy Maclin Projection

Rec: 7.4
ReYards: 102.2
ReTD: 0.9
RuYards: 0.8
TD: 0.0

WR Eric Decker – Jets vs BUF

Most of the hoopla this week has been surrounding Percy Harvin’s surprise arrival in New York via trade and that will allow Eric Decker to fly under the radar to an extent. Rex Ryan has already stated publically that Harvin will only see a handful of snaps this weekend, but Harvin’s presence will stop defenses from keying in solely on Decker in coverage. As the de facto No. 1 receiver for Geno Smith, Decker has quietly put together several good games in a row.

Geno Smith is playing better the last two weeks as well and was a blocked field goal away from upsetting the Patriots in Foxboro. Against Buffalo’s stout front seven, the Jets will be forced to rely on their passing game. Decker has a four inch height advantage on likely defender Leodis McKelvin. McKelvin has struggled recently despite the strong play of the Bills defense, allowing 13 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown over his last three games. Advantage Decker and his 24 percent market share of the targets.

Eric Decker Projection

Rec: 6.1
ReYards: 81.5
ReTD: 0.7
RuYards: 0.7
TD: 0.0

TE Zach Ertz – Eagles at ARI

This pick comes with a bit of nostalgia. Zach Ertz facing Arizona last year in Week 13 was one of the best plays this article uncovered all season. I doubt many would forget the five catches for 68 yards and two touchdowns he ended the day with. Will he come anywhere near that this time? It’s highly doubtful but that doesn’t make him a bad play. Last season it was automatic to start a tight end against Arizona based on defense versus position stats. This year it’s not as obvious but they still rank near the bottom of the league in covering tight ends.

Ertz is not a full time player yet but that doesn’t keep him from being a primary target. His targets are up by two per game and his aDOT is almost a full six yards more downfield than as a rookie. If we take a look at how Arizona has fared with other tight ends so far this year – another trend emerges similar to 2013:

Tight Ends vs ARI 2014

ARI vs Tight Ends 2014

Ertz’s aDOT of 15.6 matches up nicely with the Arizona safeties struggles with seam routes. If we can see this just by looking at data from Pro Football Focus, you can be sure Chip Kelly knows he has an advantage as well. Two touchdowns again could be a stretch but one should be in the cards for Ertz.

Zach Ertz Projection

Rec: 6.0
ReYards: 67.5
ReTD: 0.4

TE Travis Kelce – Chiefs vs STL

Travis Kelce is the honorary recipient of most mentions by one player in this article series this year. For good reason – he is continually underpriced and offers hidden upside in the right matchup. Part of the reason he always appears to be a bargain is that he isn’t a full time player. He played just 50 percent of the snaps in Week 7 but caught all four of his targets and continued to display his rare ability to gain yards after the catch (33 yards receiving, 26 YAC).

St. Louis doesn’t stand out as a plus matchup for opposing tight ends but most teams haven’t had to utilize their weapons there either. For the season, the Rams are allowing tight ends to post 3.8 catches for 48.8 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Of course they just let Cooper Helfet post a three catch for 61 yards and a touchdown performance in Week 7.

Kelce should see plenty of targets in this contest to hit value. The Chiefs will not be able to grind the clock out like they did last week against San Diego.

Travis Kelce Projection

Rec: 4.8
ReYards: 50.5
ReTD: 0.7