Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, April 17th
Most of Friday’s pitchers are on their third go-around this season. The honeymoon is over. Now it feels like baseball season. We’re covering all 15 games in numbers, but omitting words on the two day games.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Editor’s Note: The Pirates have changed starting pitchers. Jeff Locke is no longer starting. Vance Worley, a right-handed pitcher, will start instead.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ | CombK% | CombBB% | CombLD% | CombHR/FB% | CombIFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.5 | 3.47 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 0.94 | 3.64 | 5.1 | TAM | 108 | 102 | 116 | 18.7% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 1.3 | 3.87 | 6.43 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 3.38 | 2.48 | FLA | 112 | 78 | 99 | 21.4% | 6.6% | 20.1% | 10.6% | 5.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.4 | 2.6 | 7.17 | 1.6 | 0.89 | 1.76 | 3.19 | COL | 126 | 81 | 95 | 25.4% | 5.3% | 23.1% | 7.6% | 10.6% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -9.4 | 2.83 | 6.52 | 1.57 | 1.05 | 2.57 | 2.14 | MIN | 99 | 57 | 90 | 24.4% | 6.0% | 23.2% | 8.5% | 11.4% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.3 | 4.15 | 5.59 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 4.29 | 6.93 | NYM | 146 | 93 | 118 | 15.5% | 12.1% | 25.2% | 7.4% | 10.1% |
| David Price | DET | -7.6 | 2.97 | 7.2 | 1.16 | 1.05 | 2.76 | 3.64 | CHW | 66 | 52 | 87 | 23.7% | 4.5% | 22.5% | 8.4% | 13.1% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | -1 | 3.62 | 5.74 | 0.8 | 1.05 | 3.6 | 4.13 | ATL | 93 | 111 | 91 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 20.3% | 12.4% | 11.6% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | -1.4 | 4.2 | 5.61 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 3.51 | 4.94 | TEX | 55 | 69 | 87 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 19.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.2 | 4.13 | 6.28 | 0.82 | 0.87 | 4.42 | 4.21 | ARI | 96 | 84 | 89 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 19.2% | 11.0% | 7.9% |
| James Shields | SDG | -0.8 | 3.69 | 6.67 | 1.24 | 1.05 | 3.5 | 2.74 | CHC | 83 | 97 | 121 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 20.2% | 13.0% | 14.9% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | -0.6 | 3.86 | 5.86 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 3.55 | 2.64 | SDG | 103 | 111 | 139 | 22.0% | 5.2% | 21.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -6.7 | 4.23 | 5.84 | 1.91 | 0.91 | 3.8 | 4.39 | MIL | 51 | 64 | 71 | 15.4% | 5.4% | 19.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -5.2 | 3.39 | 6.56 | 1.53 | 1.05 | 3.2 | 4.62 | DET | 162 | 148 | 128 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 22.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3.4 | 4.14 | 6.33 | 0.67 | 1.01 | 4.9 | 5.12 | HOU | 57 | 69 | 110 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 21.1% | 12.8% | 9.4% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 8.8 | 4.58 | 6.38 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 4.64 | 5.01 | OAK | 103 | 126 | 125 | 14.9% | 5.5% | 23.6% | 10.2% | 6.4% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -1.3 | 3.64 | 5.71 | 1.58 | 0.91 | 3.88 | 1.76 | PIT | 25 | 67 | 68 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 15.9% | 9.2% | 11.0% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 8.9 | 4.23 | 5.76 | 1.98 | 1.07 | 4.35 | 2.56 | BAL | 81 | 129 | 146 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 21.1% | 13.0% | 9.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 6.5 | 3.2 | 6.84 | 1.42 | 0.98 | 3.76 | 2.59 | STL | 109 | 97 | 111 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 21.5% | 6.4% | 11.0% |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 1.8 | 3.99 | 6. | 0.9 | 0.87 | 4.27 | 4.54 | SFO | 87 | 91 | 76 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 23.4% | 7.9% | 11.1% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 3.8 | 3.61 | 6.46 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 3.77 | 4.22 | TOR | 78 | 82 | 95 | 19.0% | 8.2% | 21.0% | 6.9% | 13.5% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | -1.2 | 4.38 | 6.15 | 1.41 | 0.89 | 4.59 | 4.47 | LOS | 156 | 146 | 126 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 23.0% | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.3 | 2.97 | 6.72 | 0.85 | 1.03 | 3.09 | 2.99 | PHI | 89 | 62 | 95 | 24.1% | 7.3% | 23.1% | 7.4% | 11.3% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.2 | 3.59 | 5.76 | 1.17 | 0.98 | 3.56 | 4.33 | CIN | 63 | 81 | 78 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 19.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | -3.3 | 4.79 | 5.27 | 1.18 | 1.05 | 7.2 | 3.79 | CLE | 80 | 88 | 71 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 18.2% | 15.7% | 7.9% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 1 | 4.02 | 5.17 | 1.18 | 0.94 | 4.93 | 4.26 | NYY | 89 | 92 | 100 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 17.9% | 6.1% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | -12.9 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 1.89 | 1.01 | 4.49 | 6.15 | ANA | 95 | 78 | 98 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.9% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | -4.9 | 4.89 | 5.83 | 1.22 | 1.03 | 3.25 | WAS | 65 | 74 | 101 | ||||||
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 4.7 | 3.48 | 6.54 | 2.04 | 1.04 | 3.53 | 4.31 | KAN | 177 | 148 | 128 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 20.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 11.8 | 4 | 5.64 | 1.2 | 1.07 | 4.16 | 1.03 | BOS | 127 | 98 | 103 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 17.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | -1.4 | 3.83 | 5.9 | 1.74 | 0.85 | 3.67 | 2.93 | SEA | 79 | 83 | 83 | 20.7% | 5.4% | 19.0% | 12.4% | 6.4% |
NOTE – Team defense stats are still 2014 as they’re not available for 2015 yet.
Adam Warren allowed just a single run vs the Red Sox, while walking two with just a single strikeout. The ERA estimators didn’t like him much. We’ll talk about a few things in his SwStr and batted ball mix that they don’t know about later.
Bartolo Colon pitched like Max Scherzer on Opening Day when he faced him. He was much more like Bartolo Colon against the Braves. There’s some value in that.
Clayton Kershaw – After two bad starts, I think we can all see right through this guy and are ready to give up on him. Velocity is actually slightly up a tick and the pitch mix is the same. Let’s see if the numbers underneath the 5.84 ERA tell us anything today. He has a 33.6 K% at home since the start of last season. The Rockies have a 27.9 K% vs LHP in 43 plate appearances so far.
Corey Kluber has picked up right where he left off and the Twins have been awful vs RHP so far.
David Phelps has pitched just one inning of relief so far this season, rendering all of the stats in today’s charts that don’t include previous seasons entirely useless. He’s the quintessential spot starter/long man, playing the role he was born to play today. The Mets have walked at an 11% rate as a team over the last week.
Drew Hutchison has had one good and one really bad outing in his first two starts. He needs to learn to be able to keep the ball in the park. Three of his 15 fly balls have left the yard. The Braves have been better than they were supposed to be so far.
J.A. Happ has a sweet matchup with a weak-hitting Texas team so far in a great park.
Jake Peavy did not pitch well in his first start. He walked three of 18 batters and lasted just four innings. Perhaps the five strikeouts encouraged you?
Jeff Locke was Jeff Locke in his first start: lots of groundballs and few strikeouts. He gets his second shot against a Milwaukee offense that hasn’t really hit at all yet and may be less potent against LHP without Carlos Gomez.
Jered Weaver – The decline is picking up speed? We’ll see if we can find anything in the additional numbers below. The Astros have struck out in 32.3% of their home plate appearances so far.
Jimmy Nelson – His issue in the minors has mostly been walks, but today we’ll talk about how he as nearly every bit as dominant as his surface numbers suggested in his first start. It’s only one game, but the Brewers might have a pitcher on their hands if they’re not careful. Combining that start with Pittsburgh’s early numbers puts a lot of dark green in his chart line today. The Pirates haven’t walked in 91 home plate appearances yet.
Joe Kelly was better than he’s ever been in his first start, but faces the hottest offense in the majors today.
Johnny Cueto is up to his old tricks, beating his (damn good) peripherals again in the early going.
Josh Collmenter has been hit hard in his first two starts. His underlying numbers are a little better, but only because he’s not walking batters. Maybe he needs to start throwing fewer strikes. I’ll explain below.
Julio Teheran beat his metrics last year due to a great BABIP. He’s doing it a little differently early this season in which his groundball rate has spiked through two starts. The Toronto offense has been a disappointment so far and may have just lost Reyes… again.
Kyle Kendrick went BOOM after shutting down Milwaukee in his first start. Kyle Kendrick go BOOM again?
Max Scherzer has been as advertised, and I guess we all know who the most highly owned pitcher tonight will be.
Michael Wacha faces the same Cincinnati team in his second start that he did in his first. He allowed a single HR and stranded his other five base runners. He only struck out two, but his SwStr% was only a little better than that.
Mike Pelfrey missed a surprising number of bats in his first start, but two of the ones that did connect left the yard. Both are odd results for him, but though the 13 ground balls (19 batted) and just one line drive were encouraging next to the SwStr rate. Cleveland has underwhelmed offensively so far, but lead the majors with a 19 HR/FB on the road through just a few games.
Sonny Gray faces both the top offense at home and vs RHP early in the year. His results have been great per ERA, though the peripherals have been disappointing. He’s just not missing bats, which gives him even less upside vs these KC bats who have struck out in just 8.5% of their home plate appearances so far.
Ubaldo Jiminez has not caught the imposter who struck out eight of 23 Blue Jays, allowing only two base runners in his uniform last weekend. So he’s fixed now again, right?
Yovani Gallardo has been different in his new environment. The below the surface numbers should be more encouraging than the results. We’re going to talk a lot about him today. He’s got a good matchup in Seattle tonight.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 21.0% | 8.5% | Road | 21.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 17.0% | 3.7% | Home | 20.6% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 2.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 28.2% | 5.2% | Home | 33.6% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 26.2% | 5.4% | Road | 29.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 5.9% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 19.3% | 9.4% | Road | 17.3% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| David Price | Tigers | 24.2% | 3.5% | Home | 26.0% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.5% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 23.1% | 7.6% | Home | 26.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 6.5% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 18.8% | 8.4% | Home | 22.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.7% | 7.3% | Home | 18.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 16.7% |
| James Shields | Padres | 20.0% | 6.0% | Road | 20.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 19.7% | 6.8% | Home | 21.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 17.2% | 9.7% | Home | 14.4% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 22.4% | 6.7% | Road | 23.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 12.3% | 5.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 18.8% | 6.6% | Road | 14.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 8.5% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 13.0% | 6.1% | Home | 11.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.0% | 7.0% | Road | 20.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 8.7% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 15.9% | 9.2% | Home | 15.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 24.4% | 6.7% | Road | 21.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 3.9% |
| Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 17.6% | 6.3% | Road | 15.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 4.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.6% | 5.9% | Road | 20.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 10.2% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.9% | 6.3% | Road | 11.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 9.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.0% | 6.9% | Home | 28.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 7.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 22.0% | 7.2% | Home | 20.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 14.1% | 8.9% | Home | 8.3% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 4.4% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 21.1% | 9.9% | Home | 18.8% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 15.7% | 8.4% | Home | 14.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 17.4% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 12.3% | 8.7% | Road | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% | ||
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.2% | 7.9% | Road | 19.2% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 3.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.5% | 11.7% | Road | 22.8% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 4.4% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 18.8% | 7.6% | Road | 16.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 4.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Home | 24.8% | 14.3% | RH | 20.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 19.5% | 10.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.2% | 11.3% | RH | 22.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 17.2% | 3.9% | LH | 27.9% | 4.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.3% |
| Twins | Home | 15.5% | 3.9% | RH | 21.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.2% |
| Mets | Home | 11.7% | 11.0% | RH | 17.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 16.0% | 11.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.7% | 5.8% | LH | 27.9% | 2.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 5.7% |
| Braves | Road | 15.8% | 9.6% | RH | 16.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.3% | 3.5% | LH | 23.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.3% | 6.8% | RH | 23.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.5% | 9.5% | RH | 22.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.4% |
| Padres | Road | 27.4% | 4.3% | RH | 20.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.8% | 3.6% | LH | 13.6% | 4.5% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 9.2% | 12.6% | RH | 18.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 10.0% |
| Astros | Home | 32.3% | 10.9% | RH | 26.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.8% | 3.6% | RH | 18.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.6% | 0.0% | RH | 24.2% | 4.2% | L7Days | 23.8% | 2.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 27.6% | 8.6% | RH | 26.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 13.3% | 8.0% | RH | 16.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 8.1% |
| Giants | Home | 18.9% | 11.0% | RH | 18.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 17.0% | 9.5% | RH | 19.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.5% | 11.5% | RH | 19.3% | 11.2% | L7Days | 17.2% | 10.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.0% | 7.5% | RH | 22.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.9% |
| Reds | Road | 20.9% | 4.5% | RH | 23.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.9% |
| Indians | Road | 20.8% | 5.7% | RH | 23.9% | 4.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 26.6% | 6.4% | RH | 22.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.0% |
| Angels | Road | 17.5% | 7.9% | RH | 19.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 15.0% | 8.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 28.7% | 8.1% | RH | 25.7% | 6.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.0% |
| Royals | Home | 8.5% | 7.6% | RH | 13.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 14.4% | 6.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.0% | 6.7% | RH | 15.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 15.2% | 8.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 16.0% | 3.0% | RH | 23.3% | 5.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 6.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 21.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | Road | 23.4% | 6.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | Home | 21.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.2% | 6.6% | 10.9% | Home | 20.7% | 10.3% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 23.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | Road | 23.5% | 4.2% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 22.9% | 10.1% | 8.2% | Road | 24.8% | 10.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Tigers | 21.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | Home | 21.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 18.6% | 10.3% | 9.9% | Home | 19.3% | 12.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 19.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | Home | 18.3% | 13.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 20.3% | 9.2% | 11.5% | Home | 19.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | Road | 18.3% | 12.6% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 15.4% | 23.1% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.6% | 12.5% | 9.6% | Home | 20.9% | 11.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 20.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | Home | 21.5% | 10.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | Road | 22.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 20.9% | 8.7% | 12.3% | Road | 20.6% | 12.6% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 21.2% | 10.5% | 8.0% | Home | 20.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | Road | 18.1% | 7.7% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 20.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | Home | 24.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 20.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% | Road | 20.9% | 5.9% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 21.8% | 7.8% | 12.3% | Road | 24.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.8% | 8.4% | 11.3% | Road | 24.4% | 7.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 20.3% | 10.5% | 11.2% | Road | 19.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | Home | 21.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 27.8% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 19.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | Home | 22.9% | 5.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 19.9% | 9.3% | 11.6% | Home | 21.2% | 13.6% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 17.9% | 22.5% | 12.5% | Home | 9.7% | 36.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 21.1% | 15.8% | 9.4% | Home | 18.8% | 15.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 19.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | Road | L14 Days | 16.7% | 16.7% | 16.7% | |||
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 18.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | Road | 15.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 20.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | Road | 22.4% | 10.3% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 21.7% | 12.2% | 5.0% | Road | 19.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Home | 14.3% | 11.5% | 19.2% | RH | 16.5% | 5.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 16.0% | 9.2% | 3.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.6% | 14.3% | 0.0% | RH | 19.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.2% | 8.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.0% | 11.5% | 3.8% | LH | 31.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Twins | Home | 23.2% | 12.1% | 6.1% | RH | 16.5% | 4.9% | 21.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.1% | 16.4% |
| Mets | Home | 23.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | RH | 22.9% | 4.8% | 16.9% | L7Days | 23.4% | 10.0% | 14.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.3% | 7.9% | 10.5% | LH | 20.0% | 13.3% | 20.0% | L7Days | 22.0% | 12.2% | 14.6% |
| Braves | Road | 24.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | RH | 21.7% | 11.7% | 5.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 11.9% | 9.3% | 2.3% | LH | 17.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.3% | 12.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | RH | 24.0% | 8.2% | 4.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.5% | 11.6% | 14.0% | RH | 17.4% | 14.3% | 12.7% | L7Days | 16.0% | 14.8% | 11.5% |
| Padres | Road | 19.5% | 8.0% | 16.0% | RH | 16.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.8% | 5.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.5% | 0.0% | 8.3% | LH | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 3.9% | 9.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | RH | 22.1% | 11.4% | 5.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Astros | Home | 16.8% | 11.4% | 11.4% | RH | 22.0% | 10.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 16.1% | 3.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.8% | 14.3% | 4.8% | RH | 23.9% | 8.2% | 12.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 12.0% | 0.0% | RH | 19.9% | 12.3% | 1.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 15.6% | 2.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 12.5% | 14.8% | 3.7% | RH | 21.3% | 23.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 26.3% | 23.9% | 13.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | RH | 21.1% | 6.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.0% | 12.3% |
| Giants | Home | 13.4% | 6.5% | 9.7% | RH | 22.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 13.7% | 8.1% | 16.2% | RH | 17.5% | 8.9% | 13.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.3% | 15.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 24.4% | 18.8% | 8.3% | RH | 22.7% | 19.0% | 12.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 27.6% | 12.5% | 6.3% | RH | 23.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| Reds | Road | 25.6% | 0.0% | 12.0% | RH | 17.1% | 14.3% | 16.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.2% |
| Indians | Road | 18.7% | 19.0% | 14.3% | RH | 19.6% | 12.1% | 12.1% | L7Days | 24.6% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 17.1% | 13.3% | 3.3% | RH | 18.9% | 12.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 15.7% | 14.3% | 5.7% |
| Angels | Road | 22.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | RH | 22.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 9.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% | RH | 17.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.1% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
| Royals | Home | 25.0% | 13.5% | 10.8% | RH | 25.0% | 13.0% | 5.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.1% | 16.0% | 12.0% | RH | 15.1% | 7.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 17.3% | 9.5% | 11.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 16.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | RH | 16.3% | 14.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 18.0% | 9.8% |
K/SwStr Chart
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Warren | NYY | 4.6% | 11.2% | 0.41 | 4.6% | 11.2% | 0.41 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 26.0% | 11.0% | 2.36 | 26.0% | 11.0% | 2.36 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 25.0% | 14.7% | 1.70 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 1.70 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 33.3% | 15.8% | 2.11 | 33.3% | 15.8% | 2.11 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.09 | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.09 |
| David Price | DET | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.96 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.96 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 3.9% | 7.3% | 0.53 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 0.53 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 27.8% | 6.9% | 4.03 | 27.8% | 6.9% | 4.03 |
| James Shields | SDG | 27.8% | 13.1% | 2.12 | 27.8% | 13.1% | 2.12 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 24.0% | 9.8% | 2.45 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 2.45 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 7.7% | 3.3% | 2.33 | 7.7% | 3.3% | 2.33 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 12.3% | 6.8% | 1.81 | 12.3% | 6.8% | 1.81 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 12.8% | 7.4% | 1.73 | 12.8% | 7.4% | 1.73 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.40 | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.40 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 39.1% | 15.9% | 2.46 | 39.1% | 15.9% | 2.46 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 33.3% | 10.8% | 3.08 | 33.3% | 10.8% | 3.08 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 26.9% | 11.6% | 2.32 | 26.9% | 11.6% | 2.32 |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 10.4% | 6.8% | 1.53 | 10.4% | 6.8% | 1.53 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.4% | 11.3% | 1.63 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 1.63 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 16.4% | 7.2% | 2.28 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 2.28 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 28.1% | 13.6% | 2.07 | 28.1% | 13.6% | 2.07 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 8.0% | 7.9% | 1.01 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 1.01 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 8.7% | 13.8% | 0.63 | 8.7% | 13.8% | 0.63 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 19.6% | 7.0% | 2.80 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 2.80 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 8.7% | 6.5% | 1.34 | 8.7% | 6.5% | 1.34 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.60 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.60 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 12.7% | 5.7% | 2.23 | 12.7% | 5.7% | 2.23 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 34.8% | 10.4% | 3.35 | 34.8% | 10.4% | 3.35 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 26.1% | 11.7% | 2.23 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 2.23 |
Adam Warren had a healthy SwStr rate, making Boston batters swing and miss at 11 of 98 pitches, despite striking out just one of 22 faced.
Bartolo Colon – I know he has averaged an 11.0 SwStr% through two games, but he was right back around his 6.9% career rate after a big first start.
Clayton Kershaw – Through two starts, he has slightly improved on last season’s 14.1 SwStr%. He has increased his SwStr% every year he’s been in the league except one. That year it went from 11.1% to 11.0%.
Corey Kluber has the highest SwStr% of any pitcher who has started two games thus far.
J.A. Happ – His SwStr% was right around his career rate, despite just one strikeout against Oakland in his first start.
Jake Peavy – The five strikeouts in his first start against the Padres was a fluke compared to his SwStr%. That number has been around 9% in three of the last four years though.
Jered Weaver – This ball is picking up speed as it rolls down from the top of the hill.
Jimmy Nelson has the 3rd highest SwStr% of any pitcher who has started a game this season.
Joe Kelly – If you’re only looking at the fact that the K% doesn’t fit the SwStr%, then you may be missing that his 10.8 SwStr% against the Yankees was higher than it was in any start last year.
Mike Pelfrey – You’re probably so used to him not striking out batters that you probably didn’t notice that he got 11 swing and misses through 80 pitches against the White Sox.
Roberto Hernandez had just a 1.8 K/SwStr in over 160 innings last year.
Sonny Gray – Though it’s just two games, this is a disturbing trend because his SwStr% has been low in both.
Ubaldo Jimenez – I’m very surprised to see that he’s never had a double-digit SwSt% in his career and hasn’t been above 9% since he left the Rockies.
Yovani Gallardo – I wondered if he would move away from ground balls and try to go back to striking out more batters after leaving Milwaukee and Lucroy. That seems to be exactly what he’s done through two starts so far. He did face Houston in his last start though. That’s usually going to spike your K rate early in the season.
ERA Estimators Chart
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Warren | NYY | 1.69 | 5.1 | 3.41 | 4.98 | 3.29 | 3.73 | 2.04 | 1.69 | 5.1 | 3.41 | 4.98 | 3.29 | 3.73 | 2.04 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2.77 | 2.48 | -0.29 | 2.44 | -0.33 | 3.21 | 0.44 | 2.77 | 2.48 | -0.29 | 2.44 | -0.33 | 3.21 | 0.44 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 5.84 | 3.19 | -2.65 | 3.14 | -2.7 | 3.22 | -2.62 | 5.84 | 3.19 | -2.65 | 3.14 | -2.7 | 3.22 | -2.62 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.63 | 2.14 | -0.49 | 2.03 | -0.6 | 2.1 | -0.53 | 2.63 | 2.14 | -0.49 | 2.03 | -0.6 | 2.1 | -0.53 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 36 | 6.93 | -29.07 | 9.65 | -26.35 | 6.98 | -29.02 | 36 | 6.93 | -29.07 | 9.65 | -26.35 | 6.98 | -29.02 |
| David Price | DET | 0 | 3.64 | 3.64 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 2.07 | 2.07 | 0 | 3.64 | 3.64 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 2.07 | 2.07 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 6.97 | 4.13 | -2.84 | 4.82 | -2.15 | 6.65 | -0.32 | 6.97 | 4.13 | -2.84 | 4.82 | -2.15 | 6.65 | -0.32 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 2.84 | 4.94 | 2.1 | 4.14 | 1.3 | 2.66 | -0.18 | 2.84 | 4.94 | 2.1 | 4.14 | 1.3 | 2.66 | -0.18 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 9 | 4.21 | -4.79 | 4.4 | -4.6 | 5.98 | -3.02 | 9 | 4.21 | -4.79 | 4.4 | -4.6 | 5.98 | -3.02 |
| James Shields | SDG | 2.08 | 2.74 | 0.66 | 3.16 | 1.08 | 3.82 | 1.74 | 2.08 | 2.74 | 0.66 | 3.16 | 1.08 | 3.82 | 1.74 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 4.5 | 2.64 | -1.86 | 2.53 | -1.97 | 3.14 | -1.36 | 4.5 | 2.64 | -1.86 | 2.53 | -1.97 | 3.14 | -1.36 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 3 | 4.39 | 1.39 | 4.65 | 1.65 | 3.31 | 0.31 | 3 | 4.39 | 1.39 | 4.65 | 1.65 | 3.31 | 0.31 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 6.23 | 4.62 | -1.61 | 4.8 | -1.43 | 4.05 | -2.18 | 6.23 | 4.62 | -1.61 | 4.8 | -1.43 | 4.05 | -2.18 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 8.71 | 5.12 | -3.59 | 5.17 | -3.54 | 6.75 | -1.96 | 8.71 | 5.12 | -3.59 | 5.17 | -3.54 | 6.75 | -1.96 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 5.14 | 5.01 | -0.13 | 4.36 | -0.78 | 4.69 | -0.45 | 5.14 | 5.01 | -0.13 | 4.36 | -0.78 | 4.69 | -0.45 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 2.26 | 2.26 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 0 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 2.26 | 2.26 | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 1.29 | 2.56 | 1.27 | 2.88 | 1.59 | 1.55 | 0.26 | 1.29 | 2.56 | 1.27 | 2.88 | 1.59 | 1.55 | 0.26 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.64 | 2.59 | 1.95 | 2.76 | 2.12 | 2.55 | 1.91 | 0.64 | 2.59 | 1.95 | 2.76 | 2.12 | 2.55 | 1.91 |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 6.52 | 4.54 | -1.98 | 3.94 | -2.58 | 3.91 | -2.61 | 6.52 | 4.54 | -1.98 | 3.94 | -2.58 | 3.91 | -2.61 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 1.5 | 4.22 | 2.72 | 3.98 | 2.48 | 2.98 | 1.48 | 1.5 | 4.22 | 2.72 | 3.98 | 2.48 | 2.98 | 1.48 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 6 | 4.47 | -1.53 | 4.78 | -1.22 | 6.48 | 0.48 | 6 | 4.47 | -1.53 | 4.78 | -1.22 | 6.48 | 0.48 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.66 | 2.99 | 2.33 | 3.27 | 2.61 | 1.51 | 0.85 | 0.66 | 2.99 | 2.33 | 3.27 | 2.61 | 1.51 | 0.85 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 1.42 | 4.33 | 2.91 | 4.08 | 2.66 | 4.87 | 3.45 | 1.42 | 4.33 | 2.91 | 4.08 | 2.66 | 4.87 | 3.45 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 7.2 | 3.79 | -3.41 | 4.71 | -2.49 | 8.58 | 1.38 | 7.2 | 3.79 | -3.41 | 4.71 | -2.49 | 8.58 | 1.38 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 4.97 | 4.26 | -0.71 | 4.43 | -0.54 | 4.08 | -0.89 | 4.97 | 4.26 | -0.71 | 4.43 | -0.54 | 4.08 | -0.89 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 1.93 | 6.15 | 4.22 | 5.84 | 3.91 | 4.69 | 2.76 | 1.93 | 6.15 | 4.22 | 5.84 | 3.91 | 4.69 | 2.76 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 3 | 3.25 | 0.25 | 3.65 | 0.65 | 4.48 | 1.48 | 3 | 3.25 | 0.25 | 3.65 | 0.65 | 4.48 | 1.48 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.59 | 4.31 | 3.72 | 4.31 | 3.72 | 3.5 | 2.91 | 0.59 | 4.31 | 3.72 | 4.31 | 3.72 | 3.5 | 2.91 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 0 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 5.59 | 2.93 | -2.66 | 3.19 | -2.4 | 3.8 | -1.79 | 5.59 | 2.93 | -2.66 | 3.19 | -2.4 | 3.8 | -1.79 |
If you see a pitcher with large gaps here and I’m not talking about them, it’s likely because they’ve still only had a single start and faced few batters.
Adam Warren – The estimators are seeing the low BABIP and single strikeout and aren’t having any of it. They don’t see the double-digit SwStr% and 12 of 19 batted balls on the ground, including just two line drives.
Clayton Kershaw – We’ve already covered that we have no problem with the bat-missing portion of his game. What’s at issue here is the BABIP, and since we have an entire other chart for it, we’ll cover that below. He’s walked a few guys too though. It’s still kind of crazy to see even the ERA estimators in the low threes and think that’s not good enough, either.
Jered Weaver – Maybe it’s not “run-an-inning” bad, because we expect the strand rate to rise about 60%, but through two starts, he’s allowed nearly as many line drives (9) as groundballs (11) and three times as many HRs (3) as infield flies (1) through two starts. He deserves a lot of this ugliness.
Jimmy Nelson – Not only did he strike out over 30% of the batters in his first start, but he kept eight of 11 batted balls on the ground and didn’t allow a line drive. An ERA of 0.00 is never going to match your peripherals, but he completely dominated Pittsburgh.
Johnny Cueto has picked up exactly where he left off last season, except even more extreme. Instead of only beating his estimators by a run, he’s up two runs through two starts. Most of the factors behind that are still pretty much the same.
Josh Collmenter – His underlying numbers are not good, but his BABIP makes it worse. We’ll cover that below.
Julio Teheran hasn’t allowed a HR yet and has actually induced more grounders than fly balls through two starts. He hasn’t done that for a full season before. He’s also walking 10.2% of the batters he’s faced.
Max Scherzer hasn’t allowed a HR yet either, but he will. He’s a fly ball pitcher who’s allowed at least 18 every year in the league. He has, however, cut down on his HR/FB significantly the past two seasons.
Sonny Gray – You’re starting to have to wonder (or at least I am) if he’s going to turn into one of those guys who uses his park and defense to his advantage to beat his peripherals. Not just because of two starts this year, but because this is who he was last year too instead of the power pitcher we thought he was when he first came up. That’s fine, but it’s also going to be less valuable for fantasy purposes. His ERA is currently deflated by extreme pitcher friendly marks in all three metrics that are a big part of his estimators (BABIP – LOB% – HR/FB).
Yovani Gallardo has allowed two HRs, but this is mostly a BABIP issue, which means we’ll discuss it below because his other numbers (21.7 K-BB%) are spectacular.
BABIP Chart
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.314 | 0.263 | -0.051 | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.254 | 0.206 | -0.048 | 0.0% | 89.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.321 | 0.429 | 0.108 | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.322 | 0.300 | -0.022 | 0.0% | 83.6% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.281 | 0.667 | 0.386 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| David Price | DET | 0.227 | 0.220 | -0.007 | 12.5% | 85.9% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.261 | 0.233 | -0.028 | 33.3% | 87.5% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 0.328 | 0.280 | -0.048 | 14.3% | 88.9% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.302 | 0.333 | 0.031 | 0.0% | 95.7% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.274 | 0.219 | -0.055 | 23.1% | 77.8% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.330 | 0.389 | 0.059 | 0.0% | 85.7% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.272 | 0.318 | 0.046 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.317 | 0.295 | -0.022 | 5.9% | 91.8% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.292 | 0.353 | 0.061 | 5.9% | 81.3% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 0.244 | 0.217 | -0.027 | 0.0% | 92.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.333 | 0.182 | -0.151 | 33.3% | 77.3% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.258 | 0.071 | -0.187 | 14.3% | 89.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.276 | 0.206 | -0.07 | 16.7% | 86.4% |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 0.314 | 0.450 | 0.136 | 20.0% | 94.2% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.273 | 0.294 | 0.021 | 11.1% | 82.8% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.258 | 0.333 | 0.075 | 7.1% | 90.9% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.298 | 0.270 | -0.028 | 27.8% | 75.0% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.244 | 0.190 | -0.054 | 0.0% | 79.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.321 | 0.294 | -0.027 | 0.0% | 82.1% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.245 | 0.182 | -0.063 | 7.7% | 94.7% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 0.264 | 0.294 | 0.03 | 25.0% | 93.3% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 0.265 | 0.235 | -0.03 | 16.7% | 88.5% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.215 | 0.136 | -0.079 | 5.3% | 89.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.266 | 0.071 | -0.195 | 0.0% | 84.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.306 | 0.400 | 0.094 | 0.0% | 83.0% |
Again, here we’re going to cover mostly pitchers with more than one start with maybe one exception.
Clayton Kershaw has allowed twice as many grounders as fly balls, but has a 22.9 LD% through two starts, which would be the highest of his career and only second time above 20% since his rookie season. He’s had a couple of pop ups and is still among the leaders in Z-Contact%.
*Jered Weaver * – The batted ball mix was laid out above, but the BABIP is over 80 points above his career average. He hasn’t done anything yet to show that it should be much lower.
Jimmy Nelson – As exhibited above, lots of ground balls and missed bats with no line drives is going to positively affect your BABIP. His other indicators in this chart are excellent early on as well.
Johnny Cueto – As stated earlier, everything is essentially the same as last season through two starts. The watch is now officially on to see if he can run a third straight season of a sub .240 BABIP and 80+ LOB%. I wonder if anybody has ever done that before. I don’t know how to look it up.
Josh Collmenter – He throws strikes and the hitters know it. Also, there seems to be less deception this year as the opposing bats are on everything so far. They’re squaring up a lot of what they swing at in the strike zone. He has more line drives (40%) than any other type of batted ball so far. That’s going to crush a BABIP.
Yovani Gallardo – His 0.67 GB/FB so far is well below his 1.4 career rate. He hasn’t been below 1.5 the last three years. We’ve discussed today and on Opening Day why this might be a conscious change. His LD rate is up slightly, but not far above his career rate. He’s doing well getting batters to miss in the zone. There’s no real reason for an elevated BABIP that I can immediately see.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Bartolo Colon isn’t very cheap tonight, but has been good through two starts. He could provide some stability as a #2 in your cash games.
Clayton Kershaw – Prognosis: his control seems to be a little off from the numbers (I haven’t actually watched him yet this year), but everything else seems to be in place for another dominant season when that comes together. The price tag hasn’t come down, which actually means his ownership might come down and he could be contrarian tonight. Many may want to see him settle in first. That’s understandable and maybe even the prudent way to go.
Corey Kluber – There’s no reasoning I need to give why he’s a good start tonight at the #3 price tag.
Drew Hutchison – I’ve been a supporter and he has upside, but is a risk at home if he can’t keep the ball in the park.
J.A. Happ might be a matchup play with a decent price tag. There’s certainly not much on his end you’re attracted to.
Jeff Locke is probably not so much interesting as potentially useful tonight. He catches a struggling Milwaukee offense in a home park that saps RH power. He could offer a low ceiling quality start at a low price.
Jimmy Nelson is my high risk, high upside play of the day. It’s dangerous to put much emphasis on one start, but so many things line up here to make him worth a shot. The Pirates had one of the top home offenses and were good vs RHP last year, but have struggled mightily early in those spots in 2015. There has been very little price adjustment after just one start. This could blow up, but if he’s anything close to what he was last weekend, you’ll be happy.
Johnny Cueto – There’s nothing wrong with liking him here, but you’re relying a bit on BABIP and LOB to aid the results at the same price as Kluber.
Julio Teheran – I think a lot of people will be on him because he’s a name pitcher at a top half, but not too expensive price against a struggling offense. Although there’s been more ground balls to start this year, he’s been an extreme fly ball pitcher in the past and scares me a bit here.
Max Scherzer – You’re paying a near-Kershaw price tonight, but I don’t expect that to stop many people, nor should it probably.
Michael Wacha wasn’t as impressive as his results in his first start and is upper-middle of the board in most places tonight, but has a good matchup at home at a slightly cheaper cost than Teheran everywhere.
Mike Pelfrey – Do you believe in his SwStr% spike in his first start and want to take a shot at a rock bottom price here? What do you say? No, you neither? Well, maybe one GPP lineup, just in case, right?
Yovani Gallardo – There’s something interesting in the changes here and more fly balls shouldn’t hurt him much. He’s really right in the middle of the board in a good spot tonight with some upside that others may not have caught onto yet. I wouldn’t hate a GPP lineup headlined by two former Milwaukee teammates.
I’m a little excited about two guys that might bury me tonight. Let’s see what happens.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.