Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, June 5th
Los Angeles, Seattle, Atlanta, and Cleveland. Those are the four stadiums employed tonight that can be called pitcher’s parks. Every other park being utilized tonight has a three-year run factor favoring offense. Additionally, there are only five pitchers tonight with a 3.70 or better SIERA (in more than three starts) with just two below 3.50. All this is to say that this might be the shortest pitching article I write on a full slate this year, and that the guys who write about offense are going to have a tough time weeding out the top options tonight. It’s likely to be all about the scoring on Friday night.
The league average totals for the stats in the bottom three charts have been updated. You can see the new league rates in bold in the headers. The only noticeable difference is that the league average SwStr is now up to 9.6%, while the league average K% only moved 0.1 points. These things tend not to move much.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 7.2 | 4.21 | 5.8 | 2.85 | 1.05 | 3.97 | 4.24 | HOU | 107 | 102 | 107 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 21.6% | 16.1% | 10.6% |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | -0.9 | 6.61 | 5.2 | 4 | 1.04 | 6.61 | KAN | 104 | 103 | 69 | ||||||
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 8.3 | 3.23 | 5.46 | 3.23 | 0.89 | 3.78 | 3.6 | STL | 94 | 98 | 87 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 17.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 6.3 | 3.51 | 5.34 | 1.9 | 0.89 | 3.36 | 2.47 | LOS | 130 | 127 | 116 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 19.4% | 10.9% | 6.6% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -4.4 | 3.58 | 5.98 | 2.96 | 0.98 | 3.63 | 1.74 | ATL | 94 | 96 | 123 | 16.8% | 6.7% | 20.3% | 15.3% | 20.1% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.9 | 4.17 | 6.11 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 4.52 | 4.68 | CLE | 122 | 107 | 94 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 21.3% | 9.0% | 11.7% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | -2.8 | 5.49 | 5. | 1.98 | 1.4 | 5.25 | 5.01 | FLA | 93 | 80 | 104 | 15.7% | 7.3% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 8.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 16.1 | 4.13 | 5.79 | 1.56 | 1.04 | 4.37 | 4.03 | TEX | 99 | 97 | 135 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 20.5% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | -9.6 | 4.04 | 5.77 | 1.04 | 0.85 | 3.59 | 4.88 | TAM | 94 | 116 | 106 | 19.9% | 6.9% | 22.3% | 12.4% | 10.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 11.1 | 3.69 | 5.7 | 0.74 | 0.85 | 4.14 | 3.58 | SEA | 101 | 90 | 82 | 23.7% | 7.6% | 21.1% | 11.6% | 8.1% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 2.6 | 4.2 | 6.38 | 0.72 | 1.02 | 4.87 | 3.58 | NYY | 109 | 102 | 78 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 19.8% | 11.6% | 11.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 1.5 | 4.18 | 5.19 | 1.06 | 1.09 | 4.79 | 3.46 | NYM | 75 | 86 | 103 | 19.2% | 6.5% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 7.2% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | -0.9 | 4.31 | 5.54 | 1.45 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 5.22 | SFO | 116 | 109 | 88 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 22.9% | 13.5% | 8.2% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 1.3 | 3.78 | 6.15 | 1.74 | 1.09 | 3.85 | 3.84 | ARI | 95 | 97 | 119 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 21.5% | 16.3% | 6.4% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -3.9 | 3.59 | 6.21 | 1.32 | 1.08 | 3.12 | 3.74 | DET | 104 | 108 | 58 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 21.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 1.2 | 4.4 | 5.73 | 1.96 | 1.05 | 4 | 3.82 | MIL | 70 | 81 | 76 | 17.2% | 6.4% | 19.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | -1.4 | 4.06 | 6.24 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 4.37 | 4.01 | MIN | 114 | 84 | 61 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 20.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 12.2 | 4.01 | 6. | 3.67 | 1.08 | 5.07 | 8.47 | CHW | 77 | 44 | 62 | 12.5% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 8.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -9.5 | 4.04 | 5.95 | 1.4 | 1.02 | 3.61 | 3.76 | ANA | 80 | 94 | 140 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 21.7% | 9.9% | 6.7% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 2 | 3.79 | 5.3 | 0.89 | 1.02 | 3.93 | 2.66 | SDG | 89 | 89 | 79 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 26.2% | 8.1% | 11.0% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | -5.5 | 4.36 | 5.81 | 1.86 | 1.05 | 4.4 | 4.28 | TOR | 125 | 105 | 121 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 19.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | -11.5 | 3.53 | 5.81 | 1.22 | 1.07 | 3.71 | 4.73 | BOS | 99 | 83 | 69 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 20.5% | 11.8% | 7.9% |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | -8.4 | 4.19 | 5.5 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 4.51 | 4.13 | BAL | 86 | 97 | 56 | 25.2% | 10.4% | 22.2% | 21.0% | 7.6% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -2.4 | 3.92 | 6.32 | 1.25 | 1.03 | 3.93 | 5.38 | CHC | 95 | 87 | 78 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 19.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | -3.5 | 3.91 | 5.86 | 1.46 | 1.01 | 4.14 | 4.49 | PHI | 73 | 67 | 49 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 9.8% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 7.3 | 4.44 | 5.79 | 1.18 | 1.4 | 4.68 | 6.94 | COL | 91 | 96 | 110 | 16.3% | 9.0% | 20.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 5.4 | 3.69 | 5.31 | 0.91 | 1.03 | 3.93 | 3.83 | WAS | 95 | 90 | 66 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 22.0% | 9.6% | 8.7% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -15.6 | 3.18 | 6.18 | 2.58 | 1.02 | 3.44 | 3.42 | CIN | 100 | 89 | 116 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 21.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -6.7 | 3.9 | 6.05 | 1.81 | 1.07 | 3.58 | 4.98 | OAK | 97 | 81 | 105 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 18.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | -1 | 3.78 | 6. | 3.09 | 0.98 | 1.2 | 3.99 | PIT | 86 | 95 | 89 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 21.4% | 5.8% | 3.4% |
Alex Gonzalez is better known as “Chi Chi” (though you could make the sense that he’s not really known at all) and drove me nuts trying to find him on Fangraphs because of this distinction. He did not allow a run in his Major League debut, pitching into the sixth inning against Boston, but walked five of 24 batters faced, while only striking out two in addition to just a 3.7 K-BB% this year at AAA.
Brett Anderson has been a rare low-upside pitcher that we’ve continually sided with here because even these types can be under-valued occasionally. He’s allowed two ERs or less in five of his last six starts and has even gone at least six innings in each of his last three. His 17.1 K% is just enough to be relevant in the discussion and that has even risen to 19.7% over the last month. Now, add a 68.2 GB% and 5.7 Hard-Soft% this season and you start to see the appeal. The Cardinals are just a neutral matchup in this spot, park adjusted down to one of the better matchups of the day in one of the three pitcher’s parks tonight with just a 0.9 Hard-Soft% and 23.0 K% vs LHP and just a 2.8 HR/FB over the last week.
Carlos Martinez is a right-handed pitcher going against the Dodgers in LA. This would seem like suicide, but like I said, the pickings are slim, he has some upside. Michael Wacha did ok last night, right? Then there’s the fact that Martinez has 20.1 scoreless innings with 21 strikeouts over his last three starts to go with a 35.5 Soft% over the last two of those. The Dodgers would be the toughest matchup today, but the park adjusts them down to just one of the toughest spots for Martinez. The Dodgers have a 15.1 HR/FB at home and a 9.5 K-BB% and 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP, with a 16.0 HR/FB over the last year.
Charlie Morton is another in the Brett Anderson mold of low-upside guys with a monster ground ball rate worth considering in the right matchup at the right price. Morton has struck out just five of 52 batters and faces a low strikeout team, so this definitely isn’t about upside, but he’s walked just one and 36 of 46 balls have been on the ground (78.3 GB%) with a -15.2 Hard-Soft%. Obviously, this is not something he’s expected to maintain over a full season, but the Braves are Kansas City light. They don’t strike out (16.8 K% vs RHP), but don’t hit for a ton of power either, though they do have a 20.0 HR/FB over the last week.
Jake Odorizzi has had some help from his defense and strikeouts are down to league average, but he’s cut his walk rate such that his K-BB is down just 0.5 points to 15.5% this year. The Mariners are a neutral offense that are adjusted down to one of the better matchups of the night in an extreme pitcher’s park. They do hit the ball second-hardest in the majors vs RHP (16.3 Hard-Soft%), but strike out 23.5% against them and 23.3% at home. Over the last week, they have a 28.5 K% and 4.1 HR/FB.
Jose Quintana does not have a strong matchup against a good road offense and strong one against LHP (108 wRC+, 14.7 Hard-Soft%, 11.2 BB% and HR/FB), but he’s one of the better pitchers of the day and we have to talk about a few pitchers at least. He’s allowed two or fewer ERs in six of his last seven starts and now has the exact same 21.5 K% that he had last year (though the 7.4 BB% is a little higher). The Tigers lean heavily right handed and that could be an issue, but they haven’t been hitting the ball well recently.
Kyle Lohse has a 34.5 Hard%, but that’s actually his lowest mark over the last three seasons, while his 18.8 K% and 13.3 K-BB% are his highest. He hasn’t had great or even good results this year and has allowed 12 ERs over 8.2 IP in his last two starts, but has had the misfortune of pitching in hitter’s parks in eight of 11 starts this season. Minnesota does play well for hitters also and the Twins are the 4th best home offense in baseball, but it does not play well for power, which has been his issue with 13 HRs allowed. Lohse has just an 8.4 HR/FB on the road since last year, which nearly matches the Twins (8.6 HR/FB) vs RHP, whom they do not hit well (84 wRC+, 5.3 Hard-Soft%).
Kyle Ryan is a prospect of low note getting his first start of the season, but second of his career. He has no swing and miss in his game, but keeps the ball on the ground. The Tigers would probably rather not have him in their rotation long term. The good news would be the worst offense in the majors by far opposes him. The White Sox have just 0.7 Hard-Soft% and 5.4 HR/FB vs lefties. There’s just not any real upside here though.
Raisel Iglesias was thumped by Washington in his last start, but struck out eight without a walk and has now struck out 23 of 94 over four starts this season. That’s quite impressive and gives him one of the higher hidden upsides of the night. Cincinnati plays up for power, but not too poorly for overall runs, keeping this as a favorable matchup for him.
Sean Marcum has walked nine and allowed six HRs in four starts, but does have a 26.3 K% (SwStr supported) and has a very favorable matchup against a struggling, chase oriented offense, in one of the few pitcher’s parks tonight. Baltimore has a 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP, so the ball may leave the yard, but there is some upside in a team that will chase and miss pitches frequently against a guy with a surprisingly, but well supported K rate.
Tanner Roark is making his 3rd starts. His results have been better than the underlying numbers in the first two, but that was also the case last year as well. That’s not to say this is who he will be, but the potential for Ks rises significantly with the Cubs (25.4 K% on the road, 26.1 K% vs RHP, 25.1 K% over the last week) who have just a 1.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Tim Lincecum is someone that has been abandoned in this article for most of the season because his results have been much better than the peripherals in an about-face from his last few years. Now that his results have declined with nine ERs over his last two starts (9.1 IP), it should still be pretty obvious why there’s some interest in him today. The first would be one of the top park adjustment matchups of the day, behind only the rookie Kyle Ryan, against a team with a 2.1 Hard-Soft% on the year and -6.0 H-S% over the last week. They have just a 7.8 HR/FB at home and 6.8 HR/FB vs RHP. The other reason is because there are few overall standouts tonight.
Tsuyoshi Wada has allowed just four ERs over 15.2 innings with an amazing 22.6 K-BB% in three starts. Don’t buy it. It’s not even close according to his SwStr% so far, but the Washington offense hasn’t been very good and have a 22.8 K% vs LHP and have just a 1.9 HR/FB over the last week and he’s allowed just a 2.7 Hard-Soft% so far. The caveat here is that Anthony Rendon made his return last night.
Tyson Ross might be the best overall talent on the mound tonight, but has just a 9.9 K-BB% on the road since the start of last season with a 15.8 HR/FB and a terrible defense behind him. The Reds grade out as a neutral matchup and have just a 5.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but don’t strike out a lot, have just a 3.8 K-BB% over the last week, and a 15.0 HR/FB at home.
Williams Perez is difficult to write about because I watched him look really bad against the Dodgers with an inability to consistently find the strike zone and find his way out of frequent danger. But then again, every RHP looks bad against the Dodgers, and he came out of that with seven strikeouts and just one walk, following it up by walking four Giants, but not allowing a run. His overall peripherals aren’t as good as his ERA, but represent a league average pitcher, which he never looked like in an actual viewing. He has been able to induce weak contact (1.7 Hard-Soft%), and has a favorable matchup tonight against Pittsburgh.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Aaron Sanchez (.268 BABIP – 80.1 LOB%- – 18.4 HR/FB) – Obviously, the HR/FB hurts him, but he also has a 0.8 K-BB% that should be noted as the biggest reason that you can’t trust him.
Edinson Volquez (.241 BABIP – 69.4 LOB% – 4.9 HR/FB)
Jered Weaver (.243 BABIP – 83.3 LOB% – 4.5 HR/FB) – Stats for the last 30 days.
Kyle Gibson (.270 BABIP – 83.1 LOB% – 9.3 HR/FB)
Scott Kazmir (.263 BABIP – 79.3 LOB% – 12.0 HR/FB) – ERA and estimators well over four for the last month.
NO THANK YOU
Chris Tillman
Eddie Butler
J.A. Happ – Tampa Bay is the #2 offense vs LHP.
Jeremy Hellickson
Jerome Williams
Jon Niese
Nathan Eovaldi
Roberto Hernandez
Tom Koehler
Wade Miley
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 17.7% | 12.3% | Home | 19.8% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 8.3% | 20.8% | Road | L14 Days | 8.3% | 20.8% | ||
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.9% | 6.9% | Home | 14.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 22.4% | 9.5% | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 9.6% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 17.8% | 7.8% | Road | 19.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 1.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 18.9% | 8.3% | Road | 16.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 21.5% | 13.9% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 9.6% | 11.6% | Home | 9.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 18.4% | 9.0% | Home | 17.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 8.2% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 19.2% | 7.6% | Home | 21.1% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 6.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.7% | 7.3% | Road | 20.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 7.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 17.9% | 6.1% | Road | 13.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 1.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 17.8% | 7.3% | Home | 16.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 14.8% | 7.2% | Home | 18.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.5% | 5.9% | Road | 15.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.9% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.2% | 6.4% | Home | 23.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 13.2% | 7.8% | Home | 12.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 17.0% | 5.2% | Road | 16.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Kyle Ryan | Tigers | 7.4% | 9.3% | Road | 4.7% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.8% | 6.2% | Home | 17.3% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 1.9% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 22.5% | 8.1% | Home | 21.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 6.8% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 14.4% | 8.2% | Road | 14.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Scott Kazmir | Athletics | 22.6% | 7.1% | Road | 22.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 15.4% |
| Shaun Marcum | Indians | 18.9% | 8.4% | Home | 29.4% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 16.2% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 16.7% | 5.1% | Home | 15.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 20.8% | 9.2% | Road | 18.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.2% | 9.2% | Road | 17.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 17.0% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | Cubs | 21.7% | 6.8% | Road | 20.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 9.3% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.6% | 9.0% | Road | 22.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 5.5% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 18.8% | 8.3% | Home | 20.2% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 21.6% | 11.4% | Home | 33.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 9.3% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 23.4% | 8.2% | RH | 25.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.5% | 7.7% |
| Royals | Home | 14.9% | 6.2% | RH | 17.0% | 5.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 7.4% | LH | 23.0% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.8% | 9.1% | RH | 19.5% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.4% |
| Braves | Home | 18.1% | 8.7% | RH | 16.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.4% |
| Indians | Home | 17.3% | 11.3% | RH | 17.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.0% | 8.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.4% | 6.5% | RH | 21.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 3.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.5% | 7.7% | RH | 20.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 7.5% | LH | 22.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.3% | 7.5% | RH | 23.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.5% | 8.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.2% | 8.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.7% | 6.2% |
| Mets | Road | 24.0% | 5.8% | RH | 20.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 5.6% |
| Giants | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | RH | 17.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.7% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 19.4% | 8.5% | LH | 18.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.6% | 9.2% | LH | 23.6% | 11.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.3% | 5.4% | RH | 21.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 14.9% | 4.3% |
| Twins | Home | 18.6% | 6.0% | RH | 21.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 7.0% | LH | 21.8% | 5.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.2% |
| Angels | Road | 19.6% | 6.5% | RH | 20.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.5% |
| Padres | Road | 21.2% | 7.2% | RH | 21.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.9% | 9.4% | RH | 20.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.8% | 6.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 8.1% | LH | 16.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.3% | 6.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.0% | 7.2% | RH | 23.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.9% | 5.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 25.4% | 8.4% | RH | 26.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.2% | 6.5% | RH | 19.8% | 5.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 4.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 16.2% | 6.9% | RH | 19.2% | 5.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.7% | 8.3% | LH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.2% |
| Reds | Home | 18.8% | 9.8% | RH | 18.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 14.6% | 10.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 18.7% | 8.3% | LH | 16.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.9% | 6.4% | RH | 19.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 18.4% | 14.8% | 9.3% | Home | 15.6% | 13.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.3% | 9.9% | 5.6% | Home | 15.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 7.9% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | Road | 21.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 19.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | Road | 21.5% | 12.1% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 20.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | Road | 19.8% | 10.5% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 6.3% | 18.8% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 24.8% | 13.8% | 12.1% | Home | 24.7% | 10.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.5% | 9.6% | 5.4% | Home | 16.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 20.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | Home | 19.7% | 12.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | Road | 22.6% | 13.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 20.6% | 8.8% | 12.5% | Road | 19.5% | 12.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 6.3% | 12.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 21.0% | 10.4% | 6.7% | Home | 19.7% | 12.5% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 22.7% | 13.7% | 6.3% | Home | 24.1% | 14.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 22.8% | 10.3% | 6.9% | Road | 20.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | Home | 21.8% | 2.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 20.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | Home | 23.8% | 3.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 20.5% | 10.3% | 9.9% | Road | 19.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Ryan | Tigers | 6.7% | 0.0% | 11.1% | Road | 8.3% | 0.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | Home | 21.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 27.4% | 3.6% | 14.3% | Home | 23.7% | 4.2% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 44.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 20.6% | 14.1% | 8.5% | Road | 21.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Athletics | 20.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | Road | 20.6% | 11.9% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Shaun Marcum | Indians | 21.9% | 14.1% | 12.7% | Home | 11.1% | 33.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 20.8% | 7.3% | 12.0% | Home | 20.1% | 6.4% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 22.1% | 11.8% | 7.6% | Road | 21.9% | 16.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 19.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | Road | 17.6% | 10.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | Cubs | 22.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | Road | 27.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 19.1% | 10.3% | 7.0% | Road | 21.6% | 15.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.9% | 11.6% | 5.1% | Home | 18.9% | 15.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 21.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | Home | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 24.2% | 11.4% | 12.2% | RH | 22.0% | 15.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Home | 22.4% | 6.9% | 10.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 9.7% | 12.0% | LH | 20.1% | 11.1% | 13.0% | L7Days | 26.8% | 2.8% | 11.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.8% | 15.1% | 8.9% | RH | 21.6% | 16.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.2% | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| Braves | Home | 22.8% | 8.7% | 10.4% | RH | 22.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Indians | Home | 23.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | RH | 21.0% | 11.1% | 12.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.9% | 13.5% | 8.4% | RH | 21.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 19.1% | 10.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.4% | 12.0% | 9.1% | RH | 17.5% | 11.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 12.8% | 4.3% |
| Rays | Road | 21.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | LH | 22.5% | 13.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.2% | 18.9% | 11.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.1% | 11.5% | 7.1% | RH | 19.2% | 11.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 4.1% | 12.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.3% | 15.4% | 9.5% | RH | 21.3% | 13.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 12.8% | 10.6% |
| Mets | Road | 25.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | RH | 23.5% | 8.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Road | 25.2% | 11.9% | 6.7% | RH | 21.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.6% | 11.9% | 8.9% | LH | 18.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 16.0% | 6.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 9.7% | 5.9% | LH | 23.0% | 11.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 18.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| Twins | Home | 22.5% | 10.9% | 9.6% | RH | 21.5% | 8.6% | 12.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 7.1% | 12.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.1% | LH | 19.7% | 5.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.2% |
| Angels | Road | 17.8% | 10.9% | 7.0% | RH | 20.3% | 11.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 22.0% | 11.9% |
| Padres | Road | 19.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | RH | 19.2% | 10.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.1% | 10.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.2% | 14.9% | 15.7% | RH | 18.4% | 12.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 21.3% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.1% | 11.7% | 11.2% | LH | 19.5% | 10.7% | 14.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 19.0% | 10.8% | 8.1% | RH | 21.3% | 13.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.6% | 12.7% | 9.6% | RH | 20.3% | 12.2% | 12.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | RH | 22.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.3% | 11.6% | 8.3% | RH | 21.9% | 15.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 19.4% | 13.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 13.4% | 8.4% | LH | 17.0% | 11.1% | 4.0% | L7Days | 24.3% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| Reds | Home | 22.3% | 15.0% | 10.3% | RH | 21.0% | 11.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.0% | 11.0% | 8.5% | LH | 16.8% | 4.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | RH | 21.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 15.4% | 6.8% | 2.26 | 13.0% | 7.0% | 1.86 |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 8.3% | 2.9% | 2.86 | 8.3% | 2.9% | 2.86 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 17.1% | 6.8% | 2.51 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 2.63 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.4% | 10.7% | 2.37 | 28.4% | 12.5% | 2.27 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 9.6% | 4.7% | 2.04 | 9.6% | 4.7% | 2.04 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 17.4% | 7.8% | 2.23 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 2.01 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 11.5% | 6.9% | 1.67 | 9.2% | 6.8% | 1.35 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 19.3% | 10.7% | 1.80 | 18.4% | 10.8% | 1.70 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 17.6% | 6.9% | 2.55 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 2.70 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.3% | 10.2% | 1.99 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.05 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 13.2% | 8.6% | 1.53 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 1.76 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 15.7% | 9.2% | 1.71 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 1.55 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 13.4% | 8.7% | 1.54 | 13.6% | 8.8% | 1.55 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 13.9% | 5.7% | 2.44 | 14.2% | 6.3% | 2.25 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 21.5% | 9.7% | 2.22 | 25.8% | 11.8% | 2.19 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 11.5% | 7.8% | 1.47 | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 18.8% | 9.4% | 2.00 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 2.23 |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.00 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.6% | 7.8% | 2.13 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.82 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 22.5% | 11.5% | 1.96 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 1.99 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.87 | 9.9% | 5.3% | 1.87 |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | 23.2% | 11.3% | 2.05 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 1.64 |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | 26.3% | 11.6% | 2.27 | 27.9% | 12.4% | 2.25 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 8.6% | 6.5% | 1.32 | 11.3% | 6.9% | 1.64 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 18.9% | 11.4% | 1.66 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 1.67 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 15.9% | 5.9% | 2.69 | 15.7% | 6.8% | 2.31 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 30.7% | 6.9% | 4.45 | 30.7% | 6.9% | 4.45 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 24.7% | 13.1% | 1.89 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 1.62 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.01 | 14.7% | 7.0% | 2.10 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 21.6% | 5.7% | 3.79 | 21.6% | 5.7% | 3.79 |
Jake Odorizzi – His SwStr% is 0.5 points higher than last year and may suggest a trend closer to last year’s K% going forward, although that’s not a given as he’s still in an acceptable K/SwStr range.
Kyle Lohse – Earlier this season, we called for a potential uptick in his K%, which has happened, pushing him well above career and recent rates, but that’s supported by his SwStr%, so we’re not worried. In addition, his SwStr% over the last month is even more impressive.
Tanner Roark has missed way fewer bats out of the bullpen, which is strange, but still should see a positive move in his K%, even if it’s not to a level he might like.
Tim Lincecum – Something interesting that I hadn’t noticed before is that despite the career-low K%, his SwStr% is very healthy and above his career average and bottoms out at 8.5% this year with a double-digit mark in eight of 10 starts. He’s not throwing hard, but he’s doing something that might bode well for his K rate.
Tsuyoshi Wada had a more respectable 8.6 SwStr% in close to 70 big league innings last year, so maybe we buy more into that than a haphazard three game sample that’s ranged from 4.2% to 11.6% this year. There’s no way I’m buying a 30.7 K% though.
Williams Perez had a 10.1 SwStr% in his first start, but hasn’t eclipsed 5% in his other two starts. Like it was stated above, he doesn’t pass the eye test.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.88 | 5.09 | 1.21 | 4.71 | 0.83 | 5.36 | 1.48 | 3.31 | 5.01 | 1.7 | 4.75 | 1.44 | 4.95 | 1.64 |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0 | 6.58 | 6.58 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.06 | 5.06 | 0 | 6.61 | 6.61 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.06 | 5.06 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.42 | 3.16 | -0.26 | 3.38 | -0.04 | 3.46 | 0.04 | 2.73 | 2.88 | 0.15 | 3.28 | 0.55 | 3.49 | 0.76 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.13 | 3.52 | 0.39 | 3.3 | 0.17 | 3.9 | 0.77 | 2.64 | 3.06 | 0.42 | 2.87 | 0.23 | 2.99 | 0.35 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 1.93 | 1.74 | -0.19 | 2.92 | 0.99 | 3.55 | 1.62 | 1.93 | 1.74 | -0.19 | 2.92 | 0.99 | 3.55 | 1.62 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.94 | 4.92 | -1.02 | 4.94 | -1 | 4.99 | -0.95 | 5.67 | 4.74 | -0.93 | 4.89 | -0.78 | 4.67 | -1 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 4.22 | 5.44 | 1.22 | 5.25 | 1.03 | 5.61 | 1.39 | 4.7 | 5.73 | 1.03 | 5.43 | 0.73 | 6.47 | 1.77 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 2.95 | 4.15 | 1.2 | 4.13 | 1.18 | 3.36 | 0.41 | 4.05 | 4.68 | 0.63 | 4.71 | 0.66 | 4.2 | 0.15 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 3.7 | 4.04 | 0.34 | 3.93 | 0.23 | 3.7 | 0 | 3.96 | 4.31 | 0.35 | 4.58 | 0.62 | 3.6 | -0.36 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.61 | 3.69 | 1.08 | 3.72 | 1.11 | 3.05 | 0.44 | 3.13 | 3.66 | 0.53 | 3.72 | 0.59 | 4.13 | 1 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.08 | 4.47 | 0.39 | 4.42 | 0.34 | 4.39 | 0.31 | 1.98 | 4.07 | 2.09 | 4.05 | 2.07 | 3.06 | 1.08 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 5.08 | 4.38 | -0.7 | 4.26 | -0.82 | 4.58 | -0.5 | 4.97 | 4.56 | -0.41 | 4.48 | -0.49 | 5.67 | 0.7 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 5.49 | 4.56 | -0.93 | 4.48 | -1.01 | 5.07 | -0.42 | 6.82 | 4.56 | -2.26 | 4.72 | -2.1 | 5.62 | -1.2 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 4.42 | 4.17 | -0.25 | 4.08 | -0.34 | 4.7 | 0.28 | 6.67 | 4.51 | -2.16 | 4.71 | -1.96 | 5.19 | -1.48 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 4.33 | 3.7 | -0.63 | 3.72 | -0.61 | 3.3 | -1.03 | 3.45 | 3.31 | -0.14 | 3.23 | -0.22 | 2.7 | -0.75 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 2.61 | 4.78 | 2.17 | 4.58 | 1.97 | 4.41 | 1.8 | 1.71 | 4.09 | 2.38 | 4.04 | 2.33 | 4.03 | 2.32 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 6.5 | 4.01 | -2.49 | 4.08 | -2.42 | 5.01 | -1.49 | 5.86 | 3.53 | -2.33 | 3.58 | -2.28 | 3.73 | -2.13 |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 3 | 8.47 | 5.47 | 7.52 | 4.52 | 6.12 | 3.12 | 3 | 8.47 | 5.47 | 7.52 | 4.52 | 6.12 | 3.12 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.4 | 3.92 | -0.48 | 3.76 | -0.64 | 4.08 | -0.32 | 4.97 | 4.04 | -0.93 | 3.83 | -1.14 | 4.46 | -0.51 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 5.11 | 3.78 | -1.33 | 4.02 | -1.09 | 2.96 | -2.15 | 5.03 | 3.68 | -1.35 | 4.07 | -0.96 | 3.02 | -2.01 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 4.92 | 4.55 | -0.37 | 4.4 | -0.52 | 4.58 | -0.34 | 5.58 | 4.67 | -0.91 | 4.62 | -0.96 | 4.52 | -1.06 |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | 2.93 | 3.88 | 0.95 | 3.76 | 0.83 | 3.89 | 0.96 | 4.68 | 4.74 | 0.06 | 4.36 | -0.32 | 4.8 | 0.12 |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | 5.49 | 3.69 | -1.8 | 3.86 | -1.63 | 6.32 | 0.83 | 6.75 | 3.44 | -3.31 | 3.46 | -3.29 | 6.46 | -0.29 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 2.59 | 4.84 | 2.25 | 4.85 | 2.26 | 5.35 | 2.76 | 2.08 | 4.73 | 2.65 | 4.77 | 2.69 | 6.23 | 4.15 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 3 | 4.46 | 1.46 | 4.27 | 1.27 | 3.87 | 0.87 | 3.67 | 4.56 | 0.89 | 4.55 | 0.88 | 4.49 | 0.82 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.01 | 4.87 | 0.86 | 4.88 | 0.87 | 4.68 | 0.67 | 3.45 | 5.01 | 1.56 | 4.97 | 1.52 | 4.55 | 1.1 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 2.3 | 2.89 | 0.59 | 3.01 | 0.71 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 3.01 | 0.71 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.76 | 3.4 | -0.36 | 3.24 | -0.52 | 3.15 | -0.61 | 3.3 | 2.97 | -0.33 | 3.05 | -0.25 | 2.48 | -0.82 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 4.97 | 4.83 | -0.14 | 4.77 | -0.2 | 3.72 | -1.25 | 3.41 | 4.53 | 1.12 | 4.48 | 1.07 | 3.53 | 0.12 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 2.66 | 3.78 | 1.12 | 3.63 | 0.97 | 3.51 | 0.85 | 2.66 | 3.78 | 1.12 | 3.63 | 0.97 | 3.51 | 0.85 |
Jake Odorizzi has an xFIP and SIERA very similar to last year. The FIP has dropped along with his ERA due to a drop in his HR/FB to 6.2. That’s going to be tough to maintain, but he pitches in a great park and does so again tonight on the road. His .257 BABIP is lower than his solid .284 career mark, but he pitches in front of a defense that allows just a .267 mark, so he can hold that as long as they do and I wouldn’t expect either mark to move more than 10 to 20 points. As such, it’s possible he can sustain an ERA a bit below his markers. More good news would be that his K% could improve, which would bring down the estimators. In other words, unless he gets traded to a team with a crap defense and park, I’m not worried too worried about a large ERA adjustment.
Jose Quintana still has a .339 BABIP, but both that and the LOB% have normalized over the last month, pulling his ERA back down closer to his estimators, though the BABIP is still a bit high because the White Sox haven’t done a great job of catching batted balls and turning them into outs this year. An unsustainable 3.7 HR/FB in May has helped to balance that out in his ERA.
Kyle Lohse – His SwStr% and K% are stronger than they’ve ever been, resulting in a career-high 13.3 K-BB%. His BABIP is right where it should be. The problem is in a 16.5 HR/FB. Maybe that’s partly a result of his looking for more strikeouts, but that should regress and his 61.6 LOB% along with it. This makes him a decent value play in parks that are tough on power and Minnesota is one where offense plays up, but power plays down.
Raisel Iglesias has shown an interesting ability to miss some bats so far, which we can’t really confirm from just 28.1 professional innings and seven of them in rookie ball before being called up. The .351 BABIP in a small sample is what immediately jumps out, but he’s a fly ball pitcher with four of 28 of those being IFFBs and a good Z-Contact rate. The 27.4 LD% is a problem, but he’s not getting hit particularly hard as that is higher than his 26.7 Hard%. As the BABIP and 65.6 LOB% are expected to adjust positively for him, the 3.6 HR/FB will probably adjust the other way, but there still seems to be some potential value here.
Sean Marcum – We basically already talked about most of this above, but six of his 16 hits allowed have left the park. He has a .227 BABIP and 28.6 HR/FB, both of which should regress heavily, but his indicators in the Batted Ball chart have been terrific so far. His defense, however, is not.
Tanner Roark – It’s hard to judge off of just two starts and a mostly bullpen work, but his .243 BABIP and 93.8 LOB% suggest heavy regression, though his 14.3 HR/FB isn’t good, despite just a 2.8 Hard-Soft%.
Tim Lincecum – The 79.8 LOB% is a little high and the 7.5 HR/FB is well below his 9.4 career HR/FB, but not far off from his early career rates. These aren’t insane numbers expecting heavy regression though and if we think he has some upside in the K rate, then maybe he can get those estimators under four.
Tsuyoshi Wada – His estimators are with an unsustainable 30.7 K% and .229 BABIP to go with a 90.9 LOB% and 15.4 HR/FB. None of these numbers are likely to be anywhere near where they are now, even if he gets just 10 more big league starts this season.
Williams Perez – I expect the K% to drop, raising the estimators and the 84.5 LOB%, which has actually been above that in all three of his starts, will drop, but it’s still too early to draw much from his .333 BABIP, though he does have a heavy 59.6 GB% and low 20.7 Hard%. Lots of weak ground balls is the only thing in his numbers that seems to ring true so far, suggesting that the BABIP should drop with a normal LD rate.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.282 | 0.268 | -0.014 | 10.5% | 92.3% |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0.291 | 0.118 | -0.173 | 0.0% | 92.9% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.299 | 0.335 | 0.036 | 2.9% | 91.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.292 | 0.281 | -0.011 | 7.7% | 89.2% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.304 | 0.222 | -0.082 | 66.7% | 96.6% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.282 | 0.329 | 0.047 | 17.5% | 88.2% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.309 | 0.319 | 0.01 | 14.0% | 89.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.266 | 0.241 | -0.025 | 0.0% | 84.3% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 0.286 | 0.302 | 0.016 | 13.8% | 90.6% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.268 | 0.257 | -0.011 | 7.4% | 85.4% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.270 | 0.275 | 0.005 | 12.8% | 85.4% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.305 | 0.297 | -0.008 | 3.3% | 88.7% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 0.301 | 0.333 | 0.032 | 7.4% | 90.7% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.290 | 0.323 | 0.033 | 4.1% | 92.9% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.319 | 0.339 | 0.02 | 7.3% | 87.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.297 | 0.270 | -0.027 | 7.4% | 92.4% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 0.308 | 0.305 | -0.003 | 10.1% | 89.6% |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 0.284 | 0.300 | 0.016 | 0.0% | 86.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.305 | 0.367 | 0.062 | 3.8% | 88.5% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 0.278 | 0.351 | 0.073 | 14.3% | 86.6% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 0.281 | 0.293 | 0.012 | 7.0% | 93.1% |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | 0.280 | 0.263 | -0.017 | 2.0% | 84.5% |
| Shaun Marcum | CLE | 0.317 | 0.227 | -0.09 | 14.3% | 78.8% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.318 | 0.243 | -0.075 | 11.4% | 91.2% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0 | 7.5% | 83.9% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.296 | 0.264 | -0.032 | 9.6% | 90.0% |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | CHC | 0.295 | 0.229 | -0.066 | 15.4% | 87.3% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.308 | 0.348 | 0.04 | 3.1% | 83.7% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.292 | 0.298 | 0.006 | 7.4% | 89.8% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.290 | 0.333 | 0.043 | 0.0% | 88.2% |
Brett Anderson doesn’t get allow a lot of fly balls and even fewer pop ups. He’s like Joey Votto, just one all year. He also doesn’t miss a lot of bats when he throws strikes. That means he’s not a low BABIP candidate on those numbers alone. He does have just a 12.1 LD% and hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact. That’s more a description of what’s happened than a forecast of what’s to come, as line drive rates are high variance, but that also means he probably shouldn’t have a BABIP nearly this high. His career mark is .310 and that’s around where I’d expect him to trend to going forward.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Brett Anderson – If you’re going to look pitchers without a high K ceiling, then you’re generally looking for guys with massive ground ball rates at reasonable prices in the right spots because ground balls can’t leave the park. Anderson is priced reasonably, as always, and is in a better spot than a lot of people might realize against a basically league average offense on the road vs LHP in a favorable park.
Carlos Martinez is in a dangerous spot tonight, but aside from a two-start span where he allowed fourteen runs over nine innings, he has allowed a total of seven runs over the other 51.1 IP and never more than two in any of his remaining eight starts. His 25.4 K% is the highest of any of today’s pitchers with more than three starts. Sure, the issue is that he’s one of the two most expensive pitchers on the board as a right-hander facing the Dodgers, which is why I probably wouldn’t call him my top value tonight. Although, a top price tonight probably wouldn’t even be top five on a normal night.
Charlie Morton is priced in the same range as Anderson, but slightly higher in some places, likely due to perceived difference in matchups, but considering park effects and wRC+, I can’t find that to necessarily be true. You could likely expect similar results from both tonight, though I like the upside of the lefty on the west coast a little more.
Jake Odorizzi is the #3 priced pitcher in most places tonight, but again, that’s not very high for a normal night. He hasn’t been as good as his ERA looks, but as long as he pitches in good parks with the Tampa Bay defense behind him, he’s unlikely to really suffer those consequences and the Mariners may add something to his K rate tonight, giving him one of the higher upsides there tonight.
Jose Quintana – I don’t love the matchup in this park for this price, but at least he’s catching Detroit at a good time. You may use him tonight just because you trust other options much less and he’s one of not many who may have an above league average K% tonight.
Kyle Lohse is a Dumpster Dive special tonight. I think he can still give you some value outside of parks that play up for power. If he can keep the ball in the park, he can still be effective and is actually missing more bats than he ever has.
Raisel Iglesias is probably not an All-Star, but has shown some interesting trends in his peripherals, particularly his ability to miss bats and that’s the type of upside we look for in most of our bottom of the board plays. The names in the opposing lineup may be more intimidating than the actual results.
Shaun Marcum has shown Swinging Strike-supported upside in his K% and is facing a team that swings and misses a lot in a park where the power should play down. This is another example of what we’re looking or in our Dumpster Diving plays.
Tanner Roark doesn’t have a lot of upside in his own strikeout rate, but the Cubs should help him out there tonight and make him useful at a low price, though generally not as low as the three we just mentioned above him.
Tim Lincecum is missing more bats than most people realize and has one of the top matchups of the night. If we usually side against the Phillies on most nights, it makes a whole lot of sense to side against them when it’s otherwise rough, like tonight.
Tsuyoshi Wada – I don’t like him nearly as much as my numbers do and part of that is Rendon making the lineup better than the stats say, but he has managed contact well so far and the Nationals haven’t been an offense to be feared yet this season.
Tyson Ross – I can’t say I’m sure Ross will be anchoring my double up lineups tonight. The Reds drop his normally high K% upside to potentially just a league average rate, but also pump up his tendencies to allow long balls in a park that plays better for power than it does overall runs. That said, he has to remain an option, even at the top price, because he does have upside not a lot of other pitchers have tonight.
Williams Perez – This is another pitcher the numbers like a lot more than I do in a short sample. He keeps the ball on the ground and generally hasn’t been hit hard, but seems to throw a lot of junk and have trouble finding the strike zone at times. One of these days he won’t be able to escape trouble, but he has a fine matchup in solid park tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.