Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, May 15th
We’re going to try something a little different today. For the convenience of both the reader (so you don’t have to comb through 3K+ words every day to find what you want) and myself (so I can get through this in under three hours with my brain still intact), we’re going to start identifying five to seven pitchers on the “No, Thank You” list, who we won’t talk about at all. You already knew you weren’t bothering with them before even starting, so now we’re not wasting either of our time.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ | CombK% | CombBB% | CombLD% | CombHR/FB% | CombIFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2.4 | 3.86 | 6.51 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 3.35 | 2.59 | MIL | 63 | 82 | 115 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 21.1% | 11.2% | 7.4% |
| Bruce Chen | CLE | -7.1 | 4.74 | 5.48 | 0.6 | 1.08 | 5.03 | 4.11 | TEX | 90 | 106 | 108 | 16.9% | 8.0% | 22.4% | 13.0% | 7.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 16.9 | 3.59 | 5.07 | 1.85 | 0.98 | 3.86 | 4.85 | DET | 111 | 108 | 121 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 24.5% | 13.8% | 7.8% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -11.3 | 4.58 | 6. | 1.08 | 0.93 | 4.48 | 3.97 | OAK | 110 | 55 | 91 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 18.8% | 3.4% | 8.0% |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | -0.4 | 4.78 | 5. | 1.23 | 1.01 | 4.49 | 4.78 | ARI | 101 | 97 | 111 | 15.7% | 5.9% | 23.1% | 17.2% | 8.1% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 7.7 | 3.8 | 5.56 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 3.59 | 4.3 | PHI | 68 | 61 | 80 | 19.9% | 6.9% | 22.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 22.2 | 5.07 | 5.61 | 0.39 | 1.04 | 4.73 | 3.03 | NYY | 106 | 101 | 103 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 19.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | -9.8 | 3.89 | 5.98 | 1.42 | 0.85 | 3.9 | 4.18 | SEA | 111 | 96 | 126 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 20.9% | 11.4% | 6.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 10.2 | 2.48 | 7.17 | 1.73 | 0.89 | 1.7 | 3 | COL | 88 | 68 | 51 | 26.8% | 5.1% | 21.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.2 | 3.29 | 6.63 | 2.98 | 1.01 | 3.2 | 2.73 | TOR | 97 | 142 | 112 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 20.2% | 12.4% | 15.0% |
| David Phelps | FLA | -0.5 | 4.33 | 5.63 | 1.12 | 1.01 | 4.14 | 4.39 | ATL | 84 | 95 | 74 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 24.2% | 5.6% | 10.2% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.4 | 5.46 | 5.23 | 1.98 | 0.89 | 5.32 | 5.2 | LOS | 144 | 134 | 148 | 15.3% | 12.3% | 20.6% | 11.0% | 13.4% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | -12.3 | 3.98 | 5.84 | 1.07 | 0.85 | 3.48 | 3.31 | BOS | 84 | 80 | 60 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 19.5% | 12.2% | 15.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 8 | 3.68 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 1.05 | 4.07 | 2.99 | MIN | 114 | 81 | 100 | 22.9% | 5.5% | 23.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 4.7 | 4.93 | 5.69 | 1.66 | 1.02 | 3.86 | 5.11 | SFO | 97 | 99 | 120 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 12.8% | 7.2% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -1.4 | 4.14 | 5.88 | 1.94 | 1.05 | 4.06 | 5.02 | CHC | 87 | 110 | 103 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 21.2% | 13.3% | 7.7% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.5 | 4.17 | 6.35 | 0.7 | 1.04 | 4.92 | 4.3 | BAL | 124 | 114 | 108 | 18.6% | 5.8% | 20.7% | 13.4% | 11.9% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -17.7 | 3.79 | 5.67 | 1.97 | 0.93 | 3.42 | 3.87 | CHW | 83 | 98 | 122 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 25.4% | 8.5% | 11.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -9 | 3.47 | 6.28 | 1.25 | 0.84 | 3.05 | 4.58 | SDG | 108 | 101 | 123 | 19.0% | 6.1% | 21.8% | 10.0% | 12.9% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -10.1 | 3.63 | 6.39 | 0.81 | 1.01 | 3.93 | 3.83 | FLA | 89 | 88 | 76 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 23.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 1.7 | 4.04 | 5.85 | 1.46 | 1.05 | 3.45 | 5.76 | PIT | 72 | 81 | 101 | 17.3% | 6.0% | 22.1% | 8.0% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 0.7 | 4.14 | 6.24 | 1 | 0.88 | 4.47 | 3.94 | NYM | 100 | 78 | 83 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 23.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -8 | 3.18 | 6.48 | 1.26 | 1.02 | 3.12 | 2.47 | CIN | 88 | 102 | 106 | 24.6% | 8.1% | 19.8% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -6.2 | 2.91 | 6.11 | 1.17 | 1.04 | 2.84 | 1.46 | KAN | 113 | 108 | 111 | 21.2% | 3.7% | 20.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | -23.8 | 4.26 | 6.05 | 1.76 | 0.84 | 4.04 | 5.66 | WAS | 95 | 99 | 150 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 19.4% | 14.5% | 7.4% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 8 | 3.6 | 5.87 | 0.82 | 1.05 | 3.39 | 4.78 | TAM | 86 | 96 | 108 | 19.1% | 5.8% | 22.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 5.8 | 4.19 | 6.52 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 4.59 | 7 | HOU | 82 | 98 | 60 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 23.0% | 13.9% | 15.2% |
| Shane Greene | DET | 9.1 | 3.69 | 5.72 | 1.76 | 0.98 | 2.98 | 4.59 | STL | 105 | 103 | 85 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 19.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 3.1 | 4.05 | 5.01 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 4.83 | 2.91 | CLE | 93 | 105 | 119 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 18.7% | 11.7% | 9.8% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 11.3 | 3.93 | 5.98 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 3.81 | 3.79 | ANA | 72 | 111 | 72 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 21.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% |
Bartolo Colon walked a batter in his first start and hasn’t walked one since. He’s also gone at least six innings in every start and struck out at least five in all but one. He has the second highest K-BB (17.7%) in today’s main chart. The Brewers have the worst road offense in the majors with just a 4.8 BB% and 7.6 HR/FB, although they’ve homered at a 22.2 rate on fly balls over the last week.
Carlos Martinez allowed a total of five runs over his first four starts, but has allowed seven in each of his last two with a HR and four walks in each. His pitch mix and velocity are even throughout, but something is obviously wrong here. There have been lots of line drives and hard hit balls. Detroit seems to score a bunch of runs in one or two games and then go cold for a while. Overall, that’s led to an above average offense. They’ve struck out just 15% of the time over the last week and have the 3rd best road offense and 4th best offense vs RHP in the majors.
Carlos Rodon is well known to be the top prospect of the White Sox and one of the top pitching prospects in the game. He has a plus fastball, solid change-up, and potentially wipe out slider, but command has been an issue. He’s struck out 12, but walked eight of 56 batters this year and has just a 2.8 Hard-Soft% so far. The A’s have a 7.9 H-S% this year and combining his mark with theirs creates the lowest number of the day (11.7%). The A’s also have the 2nd worst offense vs LHP with just a 16.7 LD% and 2.7 HR/FB. They have just a 5.8 HR/FB at home, but have struck out just 14.5% there with just a 16.7 K% vs LHP. So, yeah, they kinda hit like the Royals at home vs LHP: lot of contact with no power.
Chase Anderson gets the pleasure of facing the worst offense in baseball today. He’s sustained all of the good from last year with a 14.0 K-BB%, but not the bad (high LD% and HR/FB), however, his Hard% (29.8) is just 2.1 points lower than last year. His HR/FB is only about 40% of last year’s rate though and may not be sustainable in Arizona, which is the reason his ERA matches his FIP, but not the other two estimators in the ERA chart. The Phillies are by far still the worst offense at home and vs RHP, impacting the ball at just a 1.7 H-S% overall.
Chris Young has always beaten his peripherals, but this year, he’s added missing bats and a career-high 17.1 K-BB%. We usually just skip him because there’s not often enough upside, but with the strikeouts, things may be different now. We’ll go over how he does it below. He has the 2nd highest SwStr% of today’s pitchers and the Kansas City outfield behind him to deal with all the fly balls in a big park. The Yankees have the fifth best road offense in baseball, which isn’t really saying much.
Clay Buchholz has seen his peripheral estimators improve by a run over last year, yet his ERA is even worse. His 17.4 K-BB% is a career high and his 7.8 Hard-Soft% is a career best, so what’s going on? The Mariners have the 3rd hottest offense in the majors and impact the ball harder than any other team (16.8 H-S%). Adding their number to his over the last two years (15.5%) gives you the second highest combined total of the day (32.2). Even Safeco hasn’t held Seattle back this year.
Clayton Kershaw allowed five runs and four walks with just five strikeouts in Colorado last time out and his ERA is now 4.26. I hope this scares people off and his price has dropped today (I haven’t looked yet). His 24.3 K-BB% is 2nd best of his career to last season and his SwStr has been at 9.7% or better in every game. He has today’s lowest combined estimators in the main chart, including a 1.70 xFIP with a 30.8 K-BB% at home since last season and the highest K-BB (21.7%) in the main chart. The Rockies are terrible vs LHP (24.6 K%, 5.1 HR/FB) and the coldest offense in baseball over the last week (22 K-BB%, 5.9 HR/FB). They represent the best park adjusted matchup of the day.
Dallas Keuchel has a 63.8 GB% and -5.0 Hard-Soft%. If your K% is going to be below average (and it’s not that far below), then tons of weak ground balls is the way to do it. He allowed more runs (4) in his last start than he had in all his previous starts combined (3), but with the usual 60% groundball rate. You can just say too many found holes at the wrong time. It was bound to happen. Now, we run into the problem because Toronto crushes LHP with a power packed RH lineup. No other offense even comes close to their production vs southpaws. They have a 13.6 HR/FB vs LHP.
David Phelps was someone I really wanted to put on the pay no mind list, even though that’s not what it’s called, and be done with it, but I guess the low ERA has to be touched on, so I’ll tell you why you shouldn’t believe in it below. The Braves have little power and just a 1.9 HR/FB over the last week, but do not strikeout (15.4 K% vs RHP).
J.A. Happ has been really good for the Mariners, allowing more than two ERs in just one of his six starts with his estimators matching his ERA. He’s striking out exactly a league average rate of batters, but has dropped his walk rate to 5.1%. The Boston offense has been bad and represents the 2nd best park adjusted matchup of the day. They have a 17.6 IFFB% vs LHP and 16.8 IFFB% on the road.
Jake Odorizzi is off to a great start, allowing one ER or less in five of seven starts. He allowed his first HR in his last start. Minnesota has the 4th best home offense with an 11.7 HR/FB and Odorizzi has a 13.0 HR/FB on the road since last season. The Twins have struck out 24.0% vs RHP and 25.1% over the last week.
Jered Weaver is someone I wanted to discard today too, but figured there might be questions on his last start. He’s coming off a shutout of the Astros who didn’t hit any of the bad pitchers they faced last week and now takes his change-up speed fastball and 12.7 HR/FB to Baltimore. He has a 4.92 xFIP and 13.7 K% with a 13.3 HR/FB on the road since last year. The Orioles have the 3rd best home offense and 2nd best vs RHP with a 15.2 and 17.6 HR/FB respectively. They represent likely the 2nd worst park adjusted matchup of the day next to the Dodgers.
Jesse Hahn is using his mediocre fastball much more often and cut his curveball down by almost half. All his strikeouts and missed bats have gone with it. He’s allowed at least three ERs in four of six starts. The White Sox have been hitting well with a HR/FB (14.5) that’s higher than their 13.2 K% over the last week, but they go from a great park to hit in to a tough one. Line drive rates are high all around in the Batted Ball chart below.
Jordan Zimmermann has had an unearned run charged against him in four of his seven starts, so it’s been even worse than it looks, though he’s showed signs of breaking out of it lately just in terms of overall results. He went from a SwStr and K rate well above his career average to one well below this year. His velocity is down nearly two mph and he knows it, throwing more breaking stuff. It might be worth speculating if he’s hiding an injury, though a quick google search doesn’t reveal anything written about one. The surprisingly terrible Washington defense isn’t helping matters either. San Diego has hit well at home with an impressive 12.2 HR/FB at Petco and the offense has picked it up a bit lately.
Julio Teheran has allowed multiple HRs in three starts and none in the other five. Four of the bombs have been against Washington and the other four against Toronto. He also walked five Mets in a start, so it’s really a story of inconsistency than anything else. The estimators told you he was headed for some regression last year, but this is nuts. Maybe you expected his BABIP to normalize and that he’d miss Heyward, but the defense has been terrible and he’s shot up 60 points. The HR/FB has nearly tripled this season and that won’t last, but what nobody expected was his BB% to double. The Marlins represent a favorable matchup at home and should help with one of his problem due to a 5.9 HR/FB at home.
Kyle Lohse has the highest SwStr% since his rookie season and highest K-BB (12.2%) of his career. He has a 35.1 Hard%, but it’s been right there the last two years also. His 19.2 HR/FB and 59.5 LOB% are killing him. His xFIP and SIERA are right where they’ve been the last few years. He might not be good and might no longer beat his estimators by half a run like he has the last few years, but there should be a rebound here to respectability at least. The Mets have the 4th worst offense vs RHP with just a 6.1 HR/FB against them and a 6.8 HR/FB at home, so there may be some value in him today.
Madison Bumgarner struck out a season-high 10 batters in his second shortest outing of the season (five innings). He’s continuing to do Madison Bumgarner things this season, but the surprise here is a career-worst 14.0 Hard-Soft% so far this year. The Reds represent a fairly neutral matchup, but they do walk a lot and have a 16.5 HR/FB at home.
Michael Pineda is a pitcher who’s underlying peripherals I liked very early on this season when his results were less than par. He was going to be my stealth stud for quite a while until the rest of the world caught up. Then he went out and wasted a 16 strikeout performance on a Sunday and now has a 27.9 K-BB% on the year. Making things double rough is that he faces the Royals today. They impact the baseball at the 2nd worst H-S (4.6%) in the majors, but are 4th vs RHP and 5th at home in overall offensive production. To make matters worse, their strikeout rates are as follows: 13.6% at home, 16.1% vs RHP, and 11.0% over the last week. Or maybe a lower K performance tonight will help stabilize his price tag in his next start.
Phil Hughes has allowed at least three ERs in all but one start as it seems his old Yankee Stadium HR problem has returned with nine allowed, though only three at home. His BABIP is once again high, but has now been .324 and .326 each of the last three seasons now, so maybe it is what it is. His BB% continues to be excellent, but where have the strikeouts gone? His K-BB is down five points to just 14.8% this year and maybe isn’t even that good (more below). Tampa Bay hasn’t been bad offensively, but have not hit well on the road and with little power (6.8 HR/FB).
Shane Greene has exceeded three strikeouts in just one of his last six starts, but has only allowed the ball to leave the yard in one start this year. Of course, that’s not sustainable, but neither is a 58.1 LOB%. His 3.1 H-S% is one of the better marks in the league. The Cardinals have just a 16.6 K% at home, but have struck out 26.1% over the last week and play in one of the toughest parks to hit the ball out of with a 5.4 HR/FB at home, so maybe tonight is not the night his HR rate regresses.
Wandy Rodriguez has gone at least five innings with exactly one ER in three of his four starts and has struck out 14 of his last 49 batters. One of those starts was against the Astros, but still impressive. His last two starts have been much better than his first two from a peripheral standpoint. Cleveland has just a 16.5 K% vs LHP and a 13.4 HR/FB at home, but he may be someone to keep an eye on over the next few starts.
Wei-Yin Chen is full of fly balls, but has the second highest Soft rate (27.9%) in the majors. He hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in a start since his first, but has allowed four HRs in three home starts. That’s the risk you run with a fly ball pitcher in Baltimore. He faces an offense that leans heavily right-handed and have really only been good against LHP this year with a 13.4 HR/FB against them, but have just a 2.9 HR/FB over the last week.
NO THANK YOU
Bruce Chen
Chad Billingsley
Eddie Butler
Jason Marquis
Odrisamer Despagne
R.A. Dickey – I’m sorry. I hate to, especially against Houston, but it’s been bad. Look at recent game logs.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 17.2% | 3.6% | Home | 21.1% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Bruce Chen | Indians | 15.3% | 7.6% | Road | 11.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 4.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 21.6% | 9.6% | Home | 21.6% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 16.7% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 21.4% | 14.3% | Road | 15.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Chad Billingsley | Phillies | 10.6% | 4.3% | Home | 12.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 4.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 21.3% | 7.8% | Road | 23.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 6.1% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 16.5% | 8.4% | Home | 20.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 6.4% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.2% | 7.5% | Road | 20.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 8.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 28.9% | 4.8% | Home | 34.1% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 7.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.5% | 6.6% | Home | 18.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 25.4% | 6.8% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 18.1% | 9.3% | Home | 19.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 10.1% | 12.0% | Road | 11.2% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 19.7% | 7.8% | Home | 22.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 10.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.9% | 7.3% | Road | 21.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 15.2% | 11.9% | Home | 18.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 17.5% | 9.3% | Road | 17.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 18.2% | 6.1% | Road | 13.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 1.8% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | 20.2% | 8.7% | Home | 21.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.3% | 4.2% | Road | 23.4% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 5.4% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.0% | 6.3% | Road | 20.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 10.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 15.5% | 5.1% | Home | 17.3% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 16.4% | 5.3% | Road | 15.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 8.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 24.6% | 6.1% | Road | 23.6% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 6.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 23.9% | 2.1% | Road | 23.4% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 1.8% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 14.8% | 7.6% | Home | 16.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 20.0% | 3.5% | Home | 20.0% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 3.5% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 18.0% | 7.7% | Road | 15.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 10.5% |
| Shane Greene | Tigers | 20.5% | 7.8% | Road | 25.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 18.6% | 6.7% | Home | 13.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.1% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 18.4% | 5.7% | Home | 17.5% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 22.7% | 4.8% | RH | 22.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.7% | 9.2% | LH | 21.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 9.3% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.0% | 8.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 14.5% | 8.3% | LH | 16.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.3% | 6.8% | RH | 19.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.4% | 6.7% | RH | 19.8% | 6.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.1% | 9.0% | RH | 19.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.5% | 7.7% | RH | 20.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.4% | 4.5% | LH | 24.6% | 6.1% | L7Days | 26.6% | 4.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.3% | 7.9% | LH | 17.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Road | 16.5% | 9.0% | RH | 15.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.4% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.4% | 10.0% | RH | 19.8% | 10.9% | L7Days | 16.5% | 12.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.1% | 9.6% | LH | 19.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Home | 19.9% | 6.3% | RH | 24.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.4% |
| Giants | Road | 20.2% | 8.5% | RH | 17.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.1% | 9.9% | LH | 25.0% | 10.1% | L7Days | 27.1% | 9.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.2% | 6.8% | RH | 23.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 18.6% | 6.4% | RH | 18.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 13.2% | 8.1% |
| Padres | Home | 19.7% | 6.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.9% | 6.9% | RH | 21.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.7% | 5.9% | RH | 19.5% | 6.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.3% |
| Mets | Home | 18.1% | 9.3% | RH | 19.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.9% |
| Reds | Home | 23.5% | 10.4% | LH | 21.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 13.4% |
| Royals | Home | 13.6% | 6.4% | RH | 16.1% | 5.6% | L7Days | 11.0% | 4.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 19.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.7% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 9.2% | RH | 21.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.5% |
| Astros | Home | 26.9% | 9.6% | RH | 25.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 9.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 16.6% | 8.9% | RH | 18.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 26.1% | 5.4% |
| Indians | Road | 16.8% | 8.1% | LH | 16.5% | 10.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.4% |
| Angels | Road | 20.3% | 6.8% | LH | 19.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 4.6% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | Home | 21.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Bruce Chen | Indians | 22.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% | Road | 21.4% | 8.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 21.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | Home | 23.7% | 12.5% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 20.6% | 0.0% | 7.7% | Road | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Chad Billingsley | Phillies | 23.7% | 23.1% | 7.7% | Home | 26.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 22.9% | 11.4% | 10.1% | Road | 25.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 18.5% | 8.2% | 13.9% | Home | 17.0% | 4.8% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | Road | 15.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.9% | 7.0% | 10.9% | Home | 21.3% | 13.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.1% | 12.0% | 9.0% | Home | 16.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 24.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | Home | 25.2% | 9.3% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 21.5% | 9.3% | 16.3% | Road | 20.2% | 10.5% | 26.3% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 20.4% | 11.0% | 8.6% | Home | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.1% | 7.5% | 9.7% | Road | 22.8% | 13.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 21.1% | 18.8% | 5.0% | Home | 10.0% | 7.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 20.0% | 10.9% | 8.8% | Road | 20.1% | 14.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 20.7% | 8.8% | 12.6% | Road | 19.5% | 13.3% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 9.5% | 23.8% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | 24.4% | 6.5% | 9.1% | Home | 23.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 23.0% | 7.8% | 13.4% | Road | 24.2% | 8.0% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 8.3% | 25.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% | Road | 25.3% | 10.6% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.6% | 6.1% | 13.2% | Home | 18.6% | 6.8% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 20.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | Road | 19.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.0% | 9.2% | 12.5% | Road | 17.0% | 9.3% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 18.0% | 6.2% | 10.8% | Road | 18.3% | 6.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 19.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | Home | 18.5% | 6.6% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 23.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | Home | 23.1% | 9.0% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.2% | 11.7% | 12.9% | Road | 21.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 13.3% | 26.7% |
| Shane Greene | Tigers | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | Road | 18.4% | 15.4% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 18.6% | 15.5% | 9.3% | Home | 16.4% | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 5.9% | 11.8% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 21.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | Home | 22.3% | 11.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 5.9% | 11.8% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | RH | 20.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 20.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | LH | 20.5% | 12.8% | 11.1% | L7Days | 16.5% | 13.2% | 7.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.2% | 11.3% | 6.3% | RH | 21.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 20.4% | 5.8% | 9.9% | LH | 16.7% | 2.7% | 10.7% | L7Days | 15.8% | 11.8% | 8.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | RH | 22.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | RH | 22.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.2% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.1% | 11.9% | 8.8% | RH | 21.8% | 13.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.5% | 15.3% | 6.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.3% | 11.9% | 7.1% | RH | 19.9% | 11.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.6% | 12.2% | 8.3% | LH | 22.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.9% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 17.8% | 11.2% | 13.9% | LH | 23.6% | 13.6% | 15.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Braves | Road | 23.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | RH | 23.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.9% | 1.9% | 11.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.0% | 16.9% | 10.1% | RH | 21.3% | 18.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.7% | 10.1% | 16.8% | LH | 21.0% | 12.9% | 17.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.9% | 22.1% |
| Twins | Home | 22.7% | 11.7% | 10.4% | RH | 21.8% | 8.0% | 14.0% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Giants | Road | 24.5% | 9.3% | 6.8% | RH | 21.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.0% | 7.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.5% | 10.1% | 13.7% | LH | 25.5% | 6.3% | 2.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 18.0% | 6.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 23.7% | 15.2% | 7.9% | RH | 22.5% | 17.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 15.7% | 7.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.1% | 7.9% | 17.5% | RH | 24.5% | 10.4% | 14.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 14.5% | 16.4% |
| Padres | Home | 18.6% | 12.2% | 6.8% | RH | 18.5% | 12.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.7% | 6.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.6% | 5.9% | 8.9% | RH | 22.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.1% | 8.2% | 10.9% | RH | 21.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.9% | 13.0% |
| Mets | Home | 22.0% | 6.8% | 12.8% | RH | 23.2% | 6.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 26.7% | 10.3% | 13.2% |
| Reds | Home | 20.8% | 16.5% | 11.0% | LH | 22.8% | 13.5% | 5.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.9% | 12.5% |
| Royals | Home | 21.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | RH | 22.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.1% | 10.9% | 7.9% | RH | 20.1% | 13.8% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 24.6% | 7.0% |
| Rays | Road | 18.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 25.6% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Astros | Home | 18.3% | 17.8% | 11.0% | RH | 23.1% | 15.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 25.8% | 17.1% | 14.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | RH | 21.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Indians | Road | 18.9% | 13.4% | 9.9% | LH | 22.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.3% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Road | 19.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | LH | 22.9% | 13.4% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 2.6% | 5.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 21.7% | 7.2% | 3.01 | 20.2% | 5.8% | 3.48 |
| Bruce Chen | CLE | 13.6% | 9.1% | 1.49 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 1.49 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 23.3% | 10.0% | 2.33 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.15 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 21.4% | 9.8% | 2.18 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 2.18 |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | 10.6% | 4.4% | 2.41 | 10.6% | 4.4% | 2.41 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 20.3% | 8.4% | 2.42 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.24 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 23.2% | 12.2% | 1.90 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 2.12 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 24.9% | 10.9% | 2.28 | 24.8% | 11.7% | 2.12 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 30.3% | 14.2% | 2.13 | 32.6% | 14.1% | 2.31 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 19.1% | 8.6% | 2.22 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.57 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 14.7% | 5.3% | 2.77 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 2.83 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.05 | 14.3% | 5.8% | 2.47 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 20.3% | 8.0% | 2.54 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 2.90 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.2% | 10.1% | 2.10 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 2.20 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 18.3% | 9.2% | 1.99 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 1.78 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.09 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 11.5% | 8.4% | 1.37 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 1.29 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 14.3% | 7.6% | 1.88 | 16.5% | 7.8% | 2.12 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.21 | 15.3% | 6.9% | 2.22 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 2.01 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 17.4% | 4.9% | 3.55 | 18.0% | 5.4% | 3.33 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 17.4% | 9.6% | 1.81 | 19.2% | 9.7% | 1.98 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.19 | 25.9% | 11.6% | 2.23 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 29.5% | 11.7% | 2.52 | 29.6% | 11.3% | 2.62 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 10.1% | 4.7% | 2.15 | 10.5% | 4.6% | 2.28 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.77 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 2.49 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 10.5% | 6.9% | 1.52 | 7.1% | 6.3% | 1.13 |
| Shane Greene | DET | 14.4% | 7.3% | 1.97 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 2.25 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 22.9% | 6.8% | 3.37 | 22.9% | 6.8% | 3.37 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 18.5% | 8.0% | 2.31 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.53 |
Bartolo Colon – Once you accept that he’ll get more looking strikes than most pitchers and is an oddity in many ways, the next thing to notice is that he has his highest SwStr% since 2005, which gives him the 2nd highest K% of his entire career.
David Phelps had a similar SwStr% and slightly higher K% last year. A 2.77 K/SwStr is so borderline that it’s not even worth fussing over. He’s not a guy you should expect strikeouts from.
J.A. Happ has seen a slight rise in his K% without a corresponding hike in SwStr% and that stems from striking out nine of 27 Rangers on a 6.2 SwStr% three starts back, but his season rates are fine.
Jered Weaver had his second straight double-digit SwStr effort and set a season-high six strikeouts, but faced 32 batters and it was the Astros. His K% is really the only part of his game I’d expect much improvement.
Phil Hughes has had a consistent SwStr at 8.5% or right about for most of his career, so this is an issue. His velocity is down about a mph. According to Brooks Baseball, he’s thrown 58 curveballs without a single whiff when it generated 10.1% last year. His SwStr has been above 6.5% in just two of seven starts.
Wandy Rodriguez – Ah, now we see the truth behind the spiked K rate… or do we? His SwStr% has been right around league average in his last two starts. It’s the first start with a 4.5 SwStr% and five strikeouts that’s most at issue here. The K% may be able to remain around league average if he can pull up his SwStr% as he’s done recently, though there’s not nearly enough information to predict something like that happening considering his track record over the last five years.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.3 | 3.18 | -0.12 | 3.19 | -0.11 | 3.16 | -0.14 | 3.51 | 3.39 | -0.12 | 3.4 | -0.11 | 3.08 | -0.43 |
| Bruce Chen | CLE | 13.5 | 4.11 | -9.39 | 3.78 | -9.72 | 5.64 | -7.86 | 13.5 | 4.11 | -9.39 | 3.78 | -9.72 | 5.64 | -7.86 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 4.89 | 4.01 | -0.88 | 3.64 | -1.25 | 4.91 | 0.02 | 5.46 | 4.3 | -1.16 | 3.84 | -1.62 | 4.75 | -0.71 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 2.92 | 4.58 | 1.66 | 4.61 | 1.69 | 3.14 | 0.22 | 2.92 | 4.58 | 1.66 | 4.61 | 1.69 | 3.14 | 0.22 |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | 9 | 4.78 | -4.22 | 4.55 | -4.45 | 6.64 | -2.36 | 9 | 4.78 | -4.22 | 4.55 | -4.45 | 6.64 | -2.36 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.97 | 3.84 | 0.87 | 3.9 | 0.93 | 3.09 | 0.12 | 2.59 | 3.86 | 1.27 | 3.9 | 1.31 | 2.76 | 0.17 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.78 | 3.74 | 2.96 | 4.13 | 3.35 | 2.71 | 1.93 | 0.86 | 3.73 | 2.87 | 4.13 | 3.27 | 2.76 | 1.9 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 5.73 | 3.26 | -2.47 | 3.23 | -2.5 | 3.09 | -2.64 | 4.94 | 3.33 | -1.61 | 3.31 | -1.63 | 2.67 | -2.27 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 4.26 | 2.45 | -1.81 | 2.21 | -2.05 | 2.9 | -1.36 | 3.66 | 2.07 | -1.59 | 1.77 | -1.89 | 2.71 | -0.95 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.39 | 3.31 | 1.92 | 3.25 | 1.86 | 2.83 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 3.15 | 1.72 | 3.08 | 1.65 | 2.61 | 1.18 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 2.9 | 4.81 | 1.91 | 4.55 | 1.65 | 2.98 | 0.08 | 1.8 | 4.66 | 2.86 | 4.37 | 2.57 | 2.84 | 1.04 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 3.73 | 5.37 | 1.64 | 5.28 | 1.55 | 4.87 | 1.14 | 4.87 | 4.84 | -0.03 | 4.85 | -0.02 | 4.13 | -0.74 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 3.29 | 3.58 | 0.29 | 3.33 | 0.04 | 3.46 | 0.17 | 3.38 | 3.33 | -0.05 | 3.13 | -0.25 | 3.58 | 0.2 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.09 | 3.56 | 1.47 | 3.59 | 1.5 | 2.34 | 0.25 | 2.76 | 3.45 | 0.69 | 3.44 | 0.68 | 2.23 | -0.53 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 5.66 | 4.01 | -1.65 | 3.99 | -1.67 | 5.09 | -0.57 | 5.9 | 4.25 | -1.65 | 4.21 | -1.69 | 5.32 | -0.58 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.71 | 4.03 | -0.68 | 3.89 | -0.82 | 3.78 | -0.93 | 5.04 | 3.92 | -1.12 | 3.69 | -1.35 | 3.84 | -1.2 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.98 | 4.66 | -0.32 | 4.61 | -0.37 | 4.99 | 0.01 | 3.82 | 4.48 | 0.66 | 4.35 | 0.53 | 4.39 | 0.57 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 4.73 | 3.95 | -0.78 | 3.86 | -0.87 | 3.24 | -1.49 | 5.66 | 3.64 | -2.02 | 3.37 | -2.29 | 3.19 | -2.47 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 4.2 | 4.51 | 0.31 | 4.38 | 0.18 | 3.41 | -0.79 | 3.06 | 4.39 | 1.33 | 4.02 | 0.96 | 3.05 | -0.01 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.74 | 4.34 | -0.4 | 4.4 | -0.34 | 5.75 | 1.01 | 6.23 | 4.28 | -1.95 | 4.5 | -1.73 | 6.95 | 0.72 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.65 | 4.01 | -0.64 | 4.2 | -0.45 | 3.98 | -0.67 | 3.71 | 4 | 0.29 | 4.23 | 0.52 | 4.23 | 0.52 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 7.03 | 4.18 | -2.85 | 4.28 | -2.75 | 5.74 | -1.29 | 5.7 | 4.32 | -1.38 | 4.53 | -1.17 | 5.58 | -0.12 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.3 | 3.31 | 0.01 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 3.17 | -0.13 | 2.67 | 3.12 | 0.45 | 3.26 | 0.59 | 3.32 | 0.65 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 2.72 | 2.16 | -0.56 | 2.18 | -0.54 | 1.91 | -0.81 | 1.85 | 2.11 | 0.26 | 2.18 | 0.33 | 1.88 | 0.03 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 5.13 | 4.75 | -0.38 | 4.76 | -0.37 | 5.31 | 0.18 | 6.23 | 4.98 | -1.25 | 5 | -1.23 | 5.87 | -0.36 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 5.11 | 3.94 | -1.17 | 3.85 | -1.26 | 4.62 | -0.49 | 5.06 | 3.97 | -1.09 | 3.83 | -1.23 | 4.49 | -0.57 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 5.29 | 0.29 | 5.74 | 0.74 | 6.06 | 5.62 | -0.44 | 5.3 | -0.76 | 6.51 | 0.45 |
| Shane Greene | DET | 4.71 | 4.32 | -0.39 | 4.08 | -0.63 | 3.48 | -1.23 | 5.82 | 4.29 | -1.53 | 4.02 | -1.8 | 3.76 | -2.06 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 2.7 | 4.05 | 1.35 | 4.35 | 1.65 | 3.91 | 1.21 | 2.7 | 4.06 | 1.36 | 4.35 | 1.65 | 3.91 | 1.21 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 2.52 | 4.4 | 1.88 | 4.76 | 2.24 | 4.71 | 2.19 | 1.78 | 4.46 | 2.68 | 4.64 | 2.86 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
Carlos Martinez has a 30.0 LD% and 21.1 HR/FB over the last month.
Chris Young is an outlier among outliers in BABIP. He’s a giant of man who must look more like he’s handing the ball off to the catcher than pitching sometimes and he lives up in the zone, inducing pop ups at a ridiculous rate. In fact, his career IFFB% is just 3.4 points below his career LD%, resulting in a career .249 BABIP. No, he’s not gonna sustain a BABIP anywhere near .105, nor is he likely to strand 84.95 of his runners going forward with a 75.2% career mark, but pitching in Kansas City with that defense behind is a match made in heaven. Now with bat missing skills, he may be someone DFS players can finally utilize.
Clay Buchholz – I’m having trouble finding this. His .393 BABIP and 62.3 LOB% are obviously large regression candidates, but it’s not like he’s being hit hard according to his batted ball or contact authority rates. I mean, there’s been 32 fly balls without a pop up, but that’s about the only worse than average thing I can immediately see.
Clayton Kershaw has a career-worst 34.2 Hard%, 24.6 LD%, and 20.0 HR/FB. These are all terrible numbers, but he also has a 2.44 GB/FB that is nearly twice his career rate and the 2nd best Z-Contact% in the majors. The numbers that stabilize early are all good, it’s the ones with a lot of fluctuation that are all bad. That’s not to say he’s not at fault for his .357 BABIP and 66.0 LOB%, but that good pitchers generally find a way to make necessary adjustments and fixed these things.
Dallas Keuchel – He’s been really good even with expected regression and having everyone hit weak ground balls is a recipe for a low BABIP, but the .199 and 84.5 LOB% just aren’t sustainable numbers when he did similar things last year with a BABIP nearly 100 points higher.
David Phelps – Home runs. That’s it really. The BABIP is slightly low, but the Marlins have done a nice job as a team with BABIP and he generates some pop ups, though he does have a 26.5 LD% and Z-Contact over 90%. Moving from the Bronx to Miami will definitely help a guy’s HR rate, but all 35 of his fly balls have stayed in the park this year, despite a 33.3 Hard%. Give him just three solo HRs, which keeps his HR/FB below league average, and his ERA jumps to 3.77 and that’s being ultra conservative.
Jake Odorizzi – Almost the entirety of the gap can be explained by a 1.9 HR/FB. He had a better than average mark last year in a great park, but there’s a limit to that expectation and it’s much higher. He does own a very solid 5.9 Hard-Soft% and his GB% is up 10 points to 39.3%, so his overall HRs allowed might be expected to be lower than last year’s 20 and you can’t even complain about his .252 BABIP when you look at the team rate.
Jesse Hahn – Despite the huge drop in his K rate, the estimators aren’t much worse than last year because he’s cut his walks in half too. His 4.2 HR/FB is probably not realistic even in Oakland, but neither is his 52.8 LOB%. He’s only stranded more than 2/3 of his runners once.
Wandy Rodriguez is doing quite a few things (.217 BABIP, 82.6 LOB%, 7.7 HR/FB) that just don’t seem very sustainable, though his BABIP indicators in the chart below and his 16.1 LD% are all at least league average or better.
Wei-Yin Chen has maintained a steady K%, but an 8.2 BB% is the highest of his three seasons in the majors. With a HR/FB right around league average again, but worse at home, how does he have the best ERA of his career? The easy and often correct answer is BABIP. His 14.9 LD% is well below his 21.6% career mark, but despite an excellent -4.8 Hard-Soft% which should help his bottom line, his IFFB% is actually the lowest rate of his career. There’s reason to worry if his walk rate doesn’t improve before his LD% normalizes. The good news is that his defense might help him keep his ERA a bit ahead of his estimators.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.280 | 0.285 | 0.005 | 5.3% | 91.8% |
| Bruce Chen | CLE | 0.342 | 0.529 | 0.187 | 0.0% | 83.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.291 | 0.297 | 0.006 | 8.3% | 92.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.321 | 0.361 | 0.04 | 7.7% | 87.1% |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | 0.308 | 0.351 | 0.043 | 7.7% | 94.3% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.303 | 0.284 | -0.019 | 12.5% | 85.4% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.265 | 0.105 | -0.16 | 12.1% | 83.6% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.304 | 0.393 | 0.089 | 0.0% | 86.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.289 | 0.357 | 0.068 | 8.0% | 78.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.270 | 0.199 | -0.071 | 8.0% | 89.7% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.287 | 0.273 | -0.014 | 14.3% | 92.1% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.331 | 0.316 | -0.015 | 21.4% | 91.1% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 0.291 | 0.289 | -0.002 | 11.8% | 89.7% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.263 | 0.252 | -0.011 | 9.6% | 86.7% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 0.264 | 0.336 | 0.072 | 5.3% | 85.9% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.307 | 0.315 | 0.008 | 3.2% | 87.7% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.265 | 0.291 | 0.026 | 12.7% | 85.4% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.277 | 0.312 | 0.035 | 4.2% | 92.4% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.333 | 0.324 | -0.009 | 23.4% | 93.2% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.327 | 0.035 | 15.8% | 84.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.300 | 0.305 | 0.005 | 9.1% | 94.3% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 0.301 | 0.289 | -0.012 | 9.6% | 88.6% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.282 | 0.290 | 0.008 | 18.8% | 89.1% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.294 | 0.336 | 0.042 | 8.1% | 86.5% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 0.297 | 0.212 | -0.085 | 7.4% | 93.1% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.296 | 0.326 | 0.03 | 11.7% | 90.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.288 | 0.225 | -0.063 | 13.7% | 86.7% |
| Shane Greene | DET | 0.286 | 0.287 | 0.001 | 13.5% | 91.8% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 0.291 | 0.217 | -0.074 | 11.5% | 87.9% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.267 | 0.222 | -0.045 | 8.3% | 87.8% |
Michael Pineda doesn’t have any great indicators, but has doubled his career GB/FB with a 1.78 mark this year and just a 16.9 LD%. Expect his BABIP to be normalize.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Bartolo Colon – Well, the Brewers aren’t going to walk and have been terrible on the road. They’ve been a bit better lately, but their home park is a hitter’s haven where they should crush the ball. Colon has been very consistent in IP and Ks this year and that’s what gets you fantasy points after all, right?
Carlos Rodon has some big upside, but it might be tough to realize it tonight. The A’s don’t strikeout and could be very frustrating here, but I don’t expect them to completely mash him either. This offense doesn’t work like that anymore. I kind of expect him to be the low-cost option of choice for a lot of players tonight though, basing that opinion on absolutely nothing but prospect status.
Chase Anderson has been good and faces the worst offense in baseball. Why the hell is his price so low? I’d consider putting his overall value (expected Points/Cost) right behind Kershaw today.
Chris Young – If we’re going to get strikeouts to go with those pop ups and a rock bottom price, that’s a winning daily fantasy combination. Of course, you’re taking a risk that he turns back into the old Chris Young (can’t teach an old dog new tricks), but even then it’s a lot of fly balls in a big park with a great outfield defense. It’s still probably worth the risk even if you lose the strikeouts.
Clayton Kershaw is simply the best anyway you look at it today with nobody else even close. He’s still the most expensive on the board by far, but actually does look a little cheaper than usual in some spots. The beating in Colorado helped probably, but now he gets a cold offense at home. He’s struck out at least eight in five of seven starts.
Dallas Keuchel is one of a few borderline pitchers today. I think his weak ground ball tendency ultimately trumps Toronto’s right-handed power, but they have absolutely crushed LHP.
J.A. Happ has been good and the Red Sox have not. He’s now a mid-range price tag, so there’s some risk that comes with this and I’m thinking a lot of people will see the names Happ and Red Sox and be tentative because of two years ago these things being completely different than they are now. This may make him a decent contrarian play if nothing else, but I always seem to be off on my expected ownership percentages.
Jake Odorizzi has been good, but so have the Twins at home. He should be ok, but with a HR/FB that’s expected to regress, he may be properly valued at this price, meaning there’s not much excess value.
Jesse Hahn hasn’t been good, but is in a great park at a great price against a mediocre offense. He doesn’t have to be good to realize some value at this price. Beware that there’s not much upside though.
Kyle Lohse actually isn’t as cheap as I expected tonight and that makes this more borderline. It was always going to be high risk, but he’s not as bad as he looks. There’s still potentially some hidden value here that other players won’t want to take a chance on, but not as much. The Mets have been bringing out the best in pitchers lately.
Madison Bumgarner carries a little bit of risk here in a small park against a team with some right handed power that’s been hot (Frazier and Byrd) in a year where he’s being hit harder overall than in the past. He’s basically matchup proof though and is still expected to be among the top performers of the day, but I don’t see him as a mortal lock tonight (not that anybody ever is).
Michael Pineda is more expensive and has a tough fantasy matchup, but is still only the #3 priced pitcher today where his estimators have him at Kershaw level wherever you look in the numbers today. Don’t expect him to strike out 16 Royals, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be really good.
Shane Greene – Pull out a three stretch start where he allowed 20 runs in 11 innings and he’s pitched at least seven innings in each of the other four with a grand total of two earned runs. Obviously, he’s neither one of those things as a complete package and represents little upside in his strikeout rate tonight, but it’s not a park the ball flies out of easily and he’s very cheap. This is your dumpster diving special of the day, but you may not even need it with several other low priced options expected to exceed their cost.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.