Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, May 29th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-06-02 15:53:44

The first order of business is to inform everyone that there will be no article Monday, but we’ll be back Tuesday with a normal schedule for the remainder of the week. The first third of the season has once again flown by and we now have a lot of information on a lot of pitchers. Only six of today’s 30 pitchers have made fewer than nine starts, and everyone has made at least two, so today seems like the first time in a while that we’re not going to have to dip into prospect reports or minor league numbers. Let’s get to it.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

Anibal Sanchez has gotten blasted each of the last two times out for a total of 14 ERs and five HRs in 9.1 innings to go along with a 34.0 Hard-Soft%. He also struck out a season high 11 in his last start and has at least nine in two of his last three. We saber types tend to buy more into the strikeouts, while believing the HRs usually normalize and take care of themselves, especially for a pitcher with a strong track record like Sanchez. The Angels have picked up the offense, but still are below average vs RHP with an 84 wRC+ and 6.7 H-S%, rating as an overall good park adjusted matchup for him here.

Chad Bettis hasn’t been terrible in his two Colorado starts (14.1 IP – 5 ER – 2 BB – 12 K) and his lone road start came against the Dodgers, which you wouldn’t expect to be good. He was just so bad last year that he still has just a 5.2 K-BB% in his career. He matches up against one of the worst offense in the league (3.2 Hard-Soft%) and the worst against RHP (70 wRC+, 5.1 H-S%, 6.7 HR/FB). Adjusting for park, gives him a likely top three matchup today. The Phillies also have a 27.1 HR/FB over the last week.

Chris Capuano hasn’t lasted very long in his two starts and has allowed about a run an inning, but does have eight strikeouts against just 37 batters and has 25 swings and misses in 147 pitches. The opposite side of that is that 1/3 of his batted balls have been hit hard. The A’s may be tough to strike out (6.0 K-BB% at home, 6.3 K-BB% vs LHP, 6.7 K-BB% last seven days), but have no power (6.0 HR/FB at home, 4.5 HR/FB vs LHP) and have really struggled vs LHP (76 wRC+, 7.8 Hard-Soft%). A pitcher’s park tilts this matchup even more in favor of Capuano.

Cole Hamels has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and allowed a total of five ERs and even more impressively a total of only five walks and no HRs. He started the season with at least three walks in five of his first six walks and a total of eight HRs. It’s safe to say he’s completely turned it all around. He has an elite -0.6 Hard-Soft% for the season and a 3.16 xFIP at home since last year, but Philadelphia is not a pitcher’s park and his 16.0 HR/FB at home makes his ERA a little higher. The Rockies are the 3rd worst offense vs LHP (71 wRC+, 25.4 K%, 3.9 HR/FB). How do the Rockies have just a 3.9 HR/FB vs LHP?

Dan Haren has allowed two ERs or less in seven of his nine starts. The underlying numbers don’t tell nearly as pretty a story, but with a 12.7 K-BB% in the right spot, he can be of some use. The Mets have been good at home, facing mostly bad teams, but have just an 82 wRC+ vs RHP with a 7.7 HR/FB. They’ve struck out 26% of the time over the last week, but with a 21.6 HR/FB. Haren may not have to worry about the HR ball though as Syndergaard is unlikely to be in the lineup tonight.

Francisco Liriano bounced back from a train wreck to have one of his best starts of the season, striking out 12 of 26 batters. That’s the way it goes with him. Sometimes, he’ll get bombed, but he also has one of the highest upsides in the game when he’s on. You just have to pick your spots. He now has a -1.5 Hard-Soft% for the year that is 2nd best among today’s pitchers. He also has a 28.5 K% on the road and combined with today’s matchup, might have the highest strikeout upside of the day. The Padres have been ok with LHP, but with just a 4.9 HR/FB and do strike out a bit more than average at home and vs LHP.

James Shields keeps giving up bombs (now up to 15 on the year), but with at least seven strikeouts in all but one start, gives himself a solid fantasy floor. Sure, he’s allowed at least a HR in every start except one, but he’s only allowed multiple HRs three times, so the Ks still play and his 25.0 K-BB% is tied with Kershaw for 4th best in the majors. The 20.9 Hard-Soft% on the season is a little concerning and the Pirates are still below average on the road and the park should play down the offense, but they just squashed a less extreme version of Shields last night (high Ks & HRs) and have absolutely crushed the ball over the last week (145 wRC+, 16.6 H-S%, 16.7 HR/FB). Perhaps we should just expect more HRs and strikeouts.

Jimmy Nelson has been a little bit inconsistent in recent starts, allowing at least two HRs or four BBs in each of his last four starts. The strikeouts have gone down a bit too over his last three starts, but I’m not really concerned with that (more below). He still has a solid 3.2 Hard-Soft% on the season and -2.6% over the last two weeks, despite as many walks as strikeouts. A 13.2 HR/FB at home since last season is just one of the hazards of pitching in Milwaukee though. He has a solid matchup tonight that the park probably plays up to near neutral, but Arizona really only has a couple of hitters that can really hurt you.

John Lackey has been really good at home with a 3.24 xFIP and 17.3 K-BB% since the start of last season. Sure that home has changed mid-way through, but Cardinal pitchers generally excel at home. This will be his first home start in over three weeks, but he’s allowed a total of five ERs in four St Louis starts this season. The Dodgers have been so good vs RHP that even with the little recent dip and a park adjustment, they still may be the toughest matchup of the day. They have a 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP, but Lackey has allowed only three HRs in nine home starts as a Cardinal.

Lance McCullers was someone I was skeptical of due to control issues and struggled with it against an Oakland team that probably wasn’t a great matchup for a young pitcher, but walked only one of 24 Detroit batters while striking out six in his last start. We do have a bit of an issue with that, which we’ll talk about later, but he does have a positive 6.9 Hard-Soft% through two starts and faces a lineup with a similar 6.5% mark against RHP. He has a plus matchup against an offense that’s below average and even though Houston is friendly to power hitters, it plays fairly neutral for runs overall, so that shouldn’t hurt him or help the White Sox, who have not hit for much power this year.

Matt Harvey is coming off his worst start of the season, going a season-low four innings and allowing a season-high seven runs and has a 26.5 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks, but is still having a fine season overall that you would take in a minute from a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. In fact, the biggest difference between this year and his dominant 2013 is a league average HR/FB this year vs a 4.7 HR/FB two years ago. Add in a higher fly ball rate and he’s already allowed six HRs, which is just one less than the seven he allowed in 2013. He also struggled against the Marlins that year and maybe it’s just a thing where he has trouble getting up for bad teams sometimes, as this year, the Phillies have given him problems. My new weighted secret sauce still gives him the top projected K-BB% of the day and the lowest BB% with one of the top potential strikeout rates (actually #2 behind Liriano). The Marlins should be a plus matchup, made better by the park, but they’ve been a plus matchup every time he’s faced them and it hasn’t always worked out so well.

Mike Bolsinger has pitched well for the Dodgers, allowing just two ERs with a 17.4 K-BB% over his four starts. If you remember, we saw some positive signs in his peripherals last year that matched up with some hard hit baseballs. In fact, he has a 16.5 Hard-Soft% as a major leaguer, but just a 5.8% mark this year. That said, he’s not this good either and is in a tough spot tonight. The Cardinals don’t hit for a ton of power, but are a tough home offense and have a 14.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.

Mike Foltynewitcz came over to the Braves with some pedigree and the 95 mph fastball has played well in the majors so far, with exactly seven strikeouts in each of his last four starts and a 3.4 Hard-Soft% in nearly 50 innings of major league work. He has a tough matchup tonight in a park that could bring the offense down to more neutral, but they don’t strike out often (16.5% at home, 17.5% vs RHP) and have the 2nd best offense vs RHP.

Nate Karns has allowed two ERs or less in eight of his nine starts. He struck out just two in his last start, but that was against Oakland and he has a -14.2 Hard-Soft% over his last two starts. Strangely, he’s allowed all six of his HR this year at home and none in three road starts, though that could change in Baltimore as the Orioles have a 13.3 HR/FB at home and 13.8 HR/FB vs RHP. They haven’t hit well lately, but still represent a tough matchup today.

Rubby de la Rosa is the guy, among quickly scanning the main chart today, who first caught my eye among the non-all-star types. He’s probably been better than his ERA shows and may be in a great spot for him against a RH heavy Milwaukee lineup. His 17.2 K-BB% definitely plays for daily fantasy purposes and though he still has a 14.8 HR/FB, he’s only allowed two over his last four starts. The Brewers have been so bad offensively, that even a great park doesn’t stop them from being a favorable matchup. They’ve hit for some power, but just a 10.3 HR/FB vs RHP and have strikeout rates higher than league average both at home and vs RHP. They are the 2nd worst overall offense vs RHP.

Sonny Gray has done a great job of managing contact this year (-0.6 Hard-Soft%) and has struck out at least a league average rate of batters in six of his last seven starts. He has a tough matchup against a team that has struck the ball harder than any team in the majors over the last week (19.8 H-S%) with a 19.2 HR/FB over that span and 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP, though a lot of that’s due to Yankee Stadium.

Stephen Strasburg has such great past peripherals that he keeps showing up as a candidate even if he hasn’t been that great this year. He’s allowed at least three ERs in each of his last three starts and hasn’t completed even four innings in three of his last four starts. The velocity has crept up to where he’s throwing just as hard as last year and he’s throwing more strikes (51.4 Zone%) than he ever has in his career, so it doesn’t seem injury related as you might first suspect. The Reds have just a 6.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and are a positive overall matchup for him, but have a 14.7 HR/FB at home.

Tim Hudson got pounded in Colorado last time out, but eight of his 16 batted balls were on the ground and he’s someone we know well. It’s all about ground balls and while the Braves have struck out just 16.7% vs RHP, they’re a terrible road offense and have been beyond awful in every offense aspect over the last week, including a 40wRC+, -10.4 Hard-Soft%, 2.4 HR/FB, and 25.9 K%. They represent the top park adjusted matchup of the day.

Trevor Bauer has pitched into the 8th inning, allowing exactly one ER in each of his last three starts. Any positive consistency you can get out of him is a plus. His strikeouts have dropped heavily from April (28.3%) to May (20.2%), but he also cut his walks in half, so maybe that was the intended effect. His 26.5 Soft% leads the major leagues, but he faces a contrast tonight with the Mariners 16.4 Hard-Soft% overall, 17.2% vs RHP, and 18.9% over the last week.

Trevor May has an ERA approaching five, but has only allowed more than three ERs in two of his eight starts and had a season-high eight strikeouts in his last start. It was only the 2nd time he’s struck out more than four though. Still, his 14.2 K-BB% is better than league average. Toronto has been hitting the ball well, but have a 23.3 K% on the road and just a 6.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. Might he have the hidden upside we’re looking for in a punt play today?

Yovani Gallardo has consistently allowed between two and four ERs in all but one start this year. His 9.9 K-BB% is below average, but we’re really only mentioning him because of the matchup. Boston has hit better over the last week, but still own one of the worst road offenses with just a 6.5 Hard-Soft% overall this season and 7.1 H-S% vs RHP, both near the bottom of the league. They do only have a 16.2 K% both on the road and vs RHP though.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.

Anthony DeSclafani (.245 BABIP – 69.0 LOB% – 6.9 HR/FB)

Hector Santiago (.257 BABIP – 85.8 LOB% – 8.1 HR/FB) – The Angels allow a .275 team BABIP, so I’ll even give him that one, but not the LOB%.

NO THANK YOU

Carlos Rodon – 18.1 BB%!!!

Mark Buehrle

Miguel Gonzalez -The most borderline pitcher not getting a write-up today, but you’re probably not considering him and we need the time and space. Well, more the time as the internet is infinite.

Steven Wright

Taijuan Walker

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Dan Haren doesn’t have a SwStr% that matches up with his K%, but he has brought that SwStr% up a bit over the last month to make it a more borderline situation. Both numbers represent a career low though, and in fact, Haren only has had two games with a SwStr% better than his worse career year (7.1% last year). J.T. Realmuto rates as one of the worst framers (-3.6 RAA) so far this year, so the help is not coming from there.

Jimmy Nelson has a SwStr above 11% in four of his last five starts, so even though he has a total of just 12 Ks over his last three starts, it’s not something that should be concerning. We can’t blame the catcher though, as Maldonado is +3.4 RAA in his framing this season.

Lance McCullers has had big swing and miss stuff in the minors, but has missed just 12 bats in 193 pitches as a major leaguer. You could say it was just the matchup in his first start vs Oakland, but the Tigers have some swing and miss in them.

Mike Bolsinger isn’t this good because nobody has a true talent sub-one ERA, but the at least league average swing and miss stuff plays, even if a .210 BABIP, 96.9 LOB%, and 5.9 HR/FB scream heavy regression. As we see though, he can regress over two runs and still be very good. He doesn’t have a pop up, but does feature a 2.06 GB/FB with a 13.3 LD%.

Nate Karns is someone we’ve been skeptical of this season, but instead of his K% dropping much, he actually had a streak of three straight starts with a double-digit SwStr% snapped. A league average SwStr% like he’s represented over the last month could keep his K-rate around league average, but aside from those three games, he hasn’t topped 7.6% the rest of the season.

Rubby de la Rosa not only has a strong K-rate, but shows us potentially more upside with the top SwStr% over the last month among today’s starters (more than one start). Further, his SwStr has been below 9.6% only once this season and he got 25 swings and misses in 99 pitches in his last outing against the Cubs. Sure, it’s the Cubs, but that’s still amazing!

Stephen Strasburg – The career low K% looks even worse now. His SwStr% has been above league average only twice and above 6% in only four of nine starts. All of his pitches are getting significantly less swing and miss though there hasn’t been any velocity decline. This is just mind boggling.

Tim Hudson should have a K% pushing the upper teens or at least closer to his 16.1% career rate. I don’t know he doesn’t. Additionally, Buster Posey is one of the better framers at +4.8 RAA this year.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Anibal Sanchez has a career 8.0 HR/FB, so with everything else being normal, there’s no way we’d expect him to keep allowing bombs at a 15.1% of fly ball pace. The one thing that’s not the same is that he’s become more of a fly ball pitcher this season, so the 11 HR’s he’s allowed is already more than halfway to his career high (20). Velocity is not an issue and the only change in his pitch mix seems to be more splitters and cutters at the expense of a change-up he’s pretty much stopped throwing this year. You still have to believe he’ll get back to a more standard rate, but that may still mean a career high for HRs allowed. A 59.5 LOB% is another thing we’d expect to see improve substantially, although he carried just a 63.5% strand rate last year, nearly 10 points below his career number.

Cole Hamels has a .252 BABIP and 82.3 LOB%, but each of those numbers were so much of an outlier in April that they’ve just taken such a long time to come back into a comfort zone. He’s had a much more reasonable .299 BABIP and 75.8 LOB% in May.

Dan Haren has a .253 BABIP that’s 36 points below his career average and an 84.3 LOB% well above his 72.6% career rate. He does have an exceptional IFFB% as a fly ball pitcher, which gives him about a free out per start and is usually in double digits, but a Z-Contact% that’s been above league average crept over 90% last year and has remained there this year. Add that to a defense with a mark nearly 50 points higher and while he doesn’t profile for a high BABIP (.289 career), there’s really not enough to justify his current mark.

Francisco Liriano has a 21.1 HR/FB and 62.9 LOB% in May, but a -6.4 Hard-Soft%, so we can probably write it off as just a bad month.

James Shields – This is so strange because you see how great his ERA could be with just a normalized HR rate in the SIERA and xFIP, but he somehow still has an 86.0 LOB%, so you see how it could be rough if that normalizes and he’s still giving up all those bombs with his FIP.

Jimmy Nelson – the thing is, if we give him credit for a higher K% because of the strong SwStr%, his estimators probably come closer to meeting his ERA over the last month. They’re just really not buying into the .237 May BABIP. He did have a huge increase in fly balls with a similar IFFB% in May going from a 2.13 GB/FB to a 1.36 GB/FB month to month this season, but that’s not enough to justify the BABIP drop.

John Lackey – Part of it’s the park, but it’s amazing how Lackey has cut down on the HRs this year, but his 5.2 HR/FB is going to be tough to sustain and could drive his ERA up past league average, though we could see some upside in his K% if we believe more in his May than his April.

Lance McCullers just hasn’t allowed a HR yet. His SIERA and xFIP show a normalized rate, though we might want to adjust for his current strikeout rate if things continue along this path. It’s too early to pass judgment though.

Rubby de la Rosa – If we look at what he’s been doing over the last month and then apply an expected K% for his 14.3 SwStr%, we’re probably looking at ERA estimators around three. Maybe we have to allow for a few HRs more due to his park, but that’s still a pitcher any team would gladly take and much better than the Diamondbacks thought they were getting.

Sonny Gray may be able to hold a .263 BABIP (13.1 LD%, 12.9 IFFB%), but should see at least a little regression from an 82.8 LOB% and even the park can’t keep his HR/FB at 3.2, despite an extremely impressive 19.2 Hard%.

Steven Strasburg has a lot of regression in a .390 BABIP. He had this issue much of last season before settling in at .315 to end the season and has a .305 career mark. The defense hasn’t helped at all either, but even a 26.4 LD% doesn’t justify this. His 57.8 LOB% should similarly rise some 15 points to his career level. A K% drop if he doesn’t pick up his SwStr% would push the ERA estimators closer to four though.

Tim Hudson allowed all eight of his HR’s over a five-game stretch and two in Colorado, but hasn’t allowed any in his last two starts. If we allow for a slight bump in his K%, we should be able to push his estimators closer to four, which still doesn’t make him good again, but helps.

Trevor May has a .348 BABIP that is hard to figure out. He’s about equal parts ground and fly balls with a league average LD rate and elite IFFB%, which has led to one per start. In addition, he also has a very strong 83.3 Z-Contact%. He profiles for a very solid BABIP, yet is 50 points above his team’s league average rate. Once that settles, the 65.1 LOB% should follow. I don’t expect him to sustain a 5.4 HR/FB, but something better than league average would obviously help his ERA regression even more.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Francisco Liriano – has a .254 BABIP, but an ERA above his estimators due to a 17.1 HR/FB. He has a solid ground ball rate and many of them weak with just a 22.0 Hard%, but also a career high 26.2 LD%. His other indicators in the chart above don’t really support anything extreme one way or the other. He first demonstrated the ability for a lower BABIP last year with similar contact authority stats, but that .280 was the 2nd best mark of his career, so I’d a move closer to that mark. Also, after a .177 April BABIP, he had a .307 mark in May.

Nate Karns – A .241 BABIP isn’t something you would expect a pitcher to sustain, but look what the Tampa Bay defense has done as a whole.

Trevor Bauer – A .265 BABIP may not seem all that exciting, but in tandem with the Cleveland defense it sure is. Part of that is a 13.8 IFFB% and fly ball pitchers may generally have a lower BABIP than ground ballers. With a 0.85 GB/FB, he certainly qualifies and his league-leading 26.5 Soft% only helps matters. I guess not even the Cleveland defense can screw up pop ups too badly.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Anibal Sanchez – Though they’ve shown signs of life lately, I’m still in the habit of recommending most decent RHPs against the Angels and this is no different. In fact, you’re probably looking at additional value here because he’s been lit up in three of his last four starts. What you like though, is that he’s still missing bats and after discovering the biggest changes have been to his HR/FB and LOB%, I’m really inclined to believe we’re getting a bargain here. Nothing in baseball is for sure and he may not completely reverse course today, but the signs point in a positive direction.

Chris Capuano doesn’t have the best matchup for strikeouts, but has been missing a ton of bats in two starts this year, so he may get a few more than you think and Oakland is an otherwise prime matchup for LHPs this year. It’s enough to make him one of our top dumpster diving picks today.

Cole Hamels sits just below Harvey in cost tonight, but is pitching great and has a very strong matchup. He’s in line for one of the top strikeout and overall point totals tonight, though the price tag may not make him one of the top overall values. Regardless, expect to see him in a lot of double up lineups.

Dan Haren is going to be hit with the regression hammer sooner or later, but in a good spot tonight against an offense that’s struggled with RHP in a pitcher’s park, maybe it’s still a little later. There are others I’d take well ahead of him, but wouldn’t hate him for a mid-range cost.

Francisco Liriano has all the upside and is in a spot where he should excel. I know the Padres lean heavily RH, but he’s struck out 31.7% of RHBs this season and has generated a lot of weak contact when he’s not allowing HRs, although that sounds odd to say. Never the less, he may be first in line for strikeouts tonight with several pitchers priced higher.

James Shields – I’m a little torn here because he’s not cheap (a little more expensive than Liriano on basically every site), allows a ton of HRs, and is facing the hottest offense on the land. On the other hand, I still expect him to get his strikeouts. I’m ok with using him tonight, but would probably prefer his opposite more.

Lance McCullers may have given us reason to be skeptical of his current strikeout rate through just two starts, but does have some talent and is facing a weak offensive team at a low price. He would be our second dumpster diving option behind Capuano for GPPs only tonight.

Matt Harvey – It’s strange what you see when you watch a team every day and I only feel really confident enough in making these kinds of statements about a few pitchers, but Harvey seems to be extra motivated by certain things sometimes. What I’m getting at here is that after Syndergaard hit that HR the other day, he had a look on his face in the dugout like “Really? Now I gotta top this.” That ultimately doesn’t mean much when we’re analyzing numbers and I’m usually among the last to buy into a narrative, but we’ve seen Harvey not be good in spots he should have dominated before. Maybe that’s because we expect him to dominate all the time. Maybe I’m just trying to justify this selection after the worst start of his career last time out, but I shouldn’t have to justify Matt Harvey. The numbers should speak for themselves until there’s enough evidence that they shouldn’t, which may eventually happen, but hasn’t yet. I expect good Harvey tonight with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove and if not, then maybe some concern.

Mike Bolsinger is walking into a tough spot tonight, but I don’t think the general public has yet realized that he’s been really good and though the underlying numbers don’t think he’s the best pitcher to ever walk the planet as his ERA suggests, they still think highly of him. The other positive here is that if Mark Reynolds is forced to face a RHP again because of the Adams injury, you should probably expect at least one additional strikeout. DFS sites are starting to take notice though, as he’s now more mid-range than low cost.

Rubby de la Rosa isn’t exactly a dumpster diving play, but is still low cost and in a great spot against a RH lineup he should do well against. The risk is obviously, that they still have some power in the Milwaukee lineup in a hitter’s park against a pitcher that might give up HRs. I think the upside outweighs the downside here by more than enough though. I’m even borderline on using him in double ups.

Stephen Strasburg – Much like Darth Vader, I still see the good in him. Maybe we’ll have a chance to dig deeper when he comes up on a shorter slate, but I’m having problems finding the issues here aside from BABIP. I see that the SwStr% has dropped significantly, but his actual pitch velocity and mix don’t immediately tell you why. I’ll probably be too afraid to touch him, but at a reasonable price, you might call it very contrarian with significant upside for those who do.

Tim Hudson – He throws ground balls. There’s not much else to see. He’s cheap and in a great spot. With a little bit of upside in his SwStr% and Atlanta striking out more recently, there may even be an extra K or two in there too over what you’d expect.

Trevor May – Ok, one more sneaky dumpster dive for you. He’s facing a team that has only really been average vs RHP and has exhibited underlying numbers much better than his ERA. I’ve been able to find no reason why his BABIP is so high either. He may not have a ton of upside, but misses bats at a league average rate and may not be so bad. That could be more than enough for the cost.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.