Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, May 8th
Today’s article was probably the toughest to write so far this season, not only because tonight features a full 15-game schedule, just likely basically every Friday, but because almost all of these pitchers have some flaws. Well, every pitcher has flaws and baseball is a high variance game, right? Yes, but a lot of these flaws are things that seem newly apparent to either this season or recent starts. Enough rambling, you’ll see what I mean below.
The following paragraph is being reprinted from Wednesday’s article for the benefit of those who did not read, as it gives additional insight into one of the new stats being used this month.
“I saw Eno Sarris tweet Tuesday night that the new Hard% stat does not correlate well with BABIP and even less than LD%. While this was heartbreaking, reading the conversation that continued A) completely went over my head when the really smart people started talking and B) revealed that Hard% does correlate much better with wRC+, which makes some sense as hard hit balls are more likely to go for HRs and extra-base hits. All hits are not created equal, although batting average would have you think so. As a result, stats like my newly made up Hard-Soft% (H-S% for short from now on) will still be used in evaluation of a pitcher’s overall performance, just not as much towards their BABIP.”
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ | CombK% | CombBB% | CombLD% | CombHR/FB% | CombIFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 6.3 | 3.75 | 5.02 | 3.13 | 1.05 | 3.74 | 4.09 | BOS | 94 | 98 | 84 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 10.2% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | -12.6 | 3.64 | 4.87 | 1.38 | 1.02 | 3.19 | 3.93 | BAL | 94 | 114 | 60 | 22.4% | 6.4% | 21.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4.6 | 3.34 | 5.31 | 2.86 | 1.4 | 2.78 | 3.15 | COL | 92 | 71 | 94 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 19.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 2.5 | 3.33 | 6.71 | 1.35 | 1.01 | 3.16 | 3.89 | NYM | 69 | 105 | 68 | 22.7% | 7.8% | 21.2% | 10.3% | 11.0% |
| David Price | DET | 11.2 | 3.02 | 7.17 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 2.89 | 3.61 | KAN | 120 | 119 | 75 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 22.2% | 8.0% | 10.9% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 5.8 | 5.34 | 5.25 | 2.05 | 1.4 | 4.89 | 4.58 | LOS | 112 | 136 | 127 | 16.2% | 9.9% | 21.1% | 16.0% | 13.3% |
| Eric Stults | ATL | -3.6 | 4.34 | 5.86 | 1.12 | 1.03 | 4.04 | 5.54 | WAS | 86 | 95 | 84 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 19.9% | 11.1% | 8.4% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -3.5 | 3.53 | 5.92 | 1.98 | 0.91 | 3.6 | 5.1 | STL | 102 | 85 | 103 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 20.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -8.3 | 3.54 | 6.07 | 1.35 | 1.03 | 3.36 | 2.27 | ATL | 89 | 91 | 118 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 21.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | -4 | 4.39 | 5.91 | 0.93 | 1.08 | 4.37 | 5.95 | CIN | 93 | 88 | 105 | 16.9% | 8.2% | 18.4% | 14.9% | 10.1% |
| James Shields | SDG | -18 | 3.62 | 6.62 | 1.24 | 1.09 | 3.48 | 1.6 | ARI | 94 | 99 | 124 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 19.9% | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | -0.4 | 4.5 | 6. | 2.13 | 0.87 | 4.03 | 3.99 | SFO | 96 | 97 | 101 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 22.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | -2.4 | 3.75 | 5.92 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 3.57 | 3.29 | MIL | 74 | 79 | 71 | 22.3% | 5.8% | 20.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 0.5 | 4.78 | 5.84 | 1.84 | 1.08 | 3.21 | 4.27 | CHW | 80 | 91 | 84 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 22.9% | 11.8% | 6.5% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 9.2 | 4.17 | 6.31 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 3.85 | 5.28 | HOU | 126 | 111 | 106 | 19.0% | 7.0% | 20.1% | 13.9% | 10.4% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 6.7 | 4.12 | 5.26 | 0.99 | 1.09 | 4.69 | 3.3 | SDG | 90 | 95 | 82 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.3 | 3.85 | 5.67 | 1.51 | 1.07 | 3.78 | 5.73 | CHC | 108 | 93 | 98 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 18.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 1.4 | 2.63 | 6.85 | 1.51 | 1.01 | 2.87 | 3.9 | PHI | 62 | 58 | 74 | 22.5% | 5.6% | 18.8% | 6.3% | 10.7% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 8.6 | 3.68 | 5.85 | 1.24 | 0.91 | 3.81 | 4.15 | PIT | 82 | 77 | 75 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 6.7% | 10.4% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 11.4 | 4.29 | 6.09 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 4.39 | 5.02 | NYY | 99 | 96 | 105 | 16.5% | 7.3% | 22.2% | 11.3% | 12.4% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.5 | 4.78 | 5.31 | 1.32 | 0.94 | 5.2 | 4.26 | CLE | 109 | 97 | 132 | 15.4% | 9.8% | 20.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 11.3 | 4.2 | 5.19 | 1.18 | 0.94 | 5.21 | 3.4 | TEX | 86 | 71 | 119 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 18.6% | 13.8% | 9.1% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 9.6 | 4.26 | 5.74 | 1.84 | 0.91 | 4.48 | 4.47 | ANA | 97 | 78 | 76 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 21.6% | 12.7% | 9.6% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -17.9 | 3.5 | 6.57 | 1.97 | 0.85 | 3.57 | 3.95 | SEA | 103 | 92 | 104 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -14.7 | 4.15 | 5.08 | 1.33 | 0.85 | 5.06 | 3.89 | OAK | 103 | 115 | 108 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 22.3% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | -7.3 | 3.84 | 5.92 | 1.56 | 0.87 | 3.83 | 4.71 | FLA | 101 | 93 | 114 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 23.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -1.7 | 4.05 | 5.73 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 4.15 | 6.12 | MIN | 57 | 89 | 131 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 20.7% | 8.7% | 13.7% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -2.9 | 3.85 | 6.02 | 1.85 | 1.05 | 3.81 | 5.33 | TOR | 126 | 133 | 130 | 15.8% | 8.2% | 19.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 17.5 | 3.94 | 5.89 | 1.56 | 1.05 | 4 | 4.24 | DET | 109 | 108 | 78 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 22.7% | 8.7% | 5.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | -0.6 | 3.85 | 5.87 | 1.78 | 0.94 | 3.6 | 5.41 | TAM | 111 | 96 | 83 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 20.0% | 9.8% | 11.0% |
Aaron Sanchez walked six in his last start and hasn’t completed six innings in any of his starts. The Blue Jays must be incredibly thin on depth to keep sending him out there. His best start of the season was probably against Boston less than two weeks ago. The Red Sox enjoy their bases on balls.
Adam Warren has allowed exactly four earned runs in three of his five starts, has only one where he’s struck out more batters than he’s walked, and hasn’t completed six innings yet either. The Orioles have at least a 23 K% each on the road, vs RHP, and over the last week, but also have at least a 12.2 HR/FB in each of those situations as well.
Brett Anderson isn’t going to strike too many hitters out, but 52 of his 86 pitches put into play have been ground balls. When enough of those are near infielders, he’s going to perform well. The Rockies have not hit well vs LHP, but this is Colorado.
Cole Hamels is being eaten by the regression monster. He’s only allowed a single homer over his last three starts after seven in his first three, but now it’s the BABIP that’s coming back to bite him. He’s still doing a fine job missing bats and even leads the majors with a 31.7 Soft%, but has struggled in almost every start to find the plate with at least three walks in all but one start. The Mets have been above average vs LHP, but not at home and have some of the coldest bats in the league.
David Price hasn’t really been all that special this year, but has kept the ball in the park (just two HRs). His 13.5 K-BB% is his worst since 2010 with both numbers going the wrong way, though his SwStr% is still above league average. One possible and surprising reason that he’s been able to keep his ERA a bit below his estimators (aside from the 4.5 HR/FB) is that the Detroit defense actually grades out near the top of the league so far. The Royals are the second-best home offense and third-best vs LHP with a 12.8 K% vs them, though the second-worst hard minus soft rate (2.8%) in the majors. Only the Phillies make less impact when striking the baseball.
Eddie Butler faces the Dodgers in Colorado. The Dodgers are in Colorado tonight. The Dodgers with a 132 wRC+ and 19.4 HR/FB vs RHP are in Colorado tonight. This has the potential to get really ugly.
Francisco Liriano has allowed just 14 hits this season and never more than four in a start. Let that sink in. Of course that’s unsustainable, but it’s quite a feat. The filthy stuff allows him to miss so many bats that he can pull off a 15.3 K-BB% even with a 12.1 BB%. He’s allowed more walks than hits. Batters just aren’t often putting the bat on the ball and aren’t hitting it hard (-1.3 Hard-Soft%) when they do. The Cardinals walk 11.7% against LHP, but with just a 3.8 HR/FB.
Gio Gonzalez is now a pitch to contact ground baller. No, seriously. Read on. Don’t worry, he still walks a lot of batters. He’s been very good at home, with a 24.3 K% since the start of last season. The Braves have been hitting the ball well.
Hector Noesi is a really interesting pitcher this year. He’s missing a ton of bats, but not throwing enough strikes to turn them into strikeouts. His soft and hard hit rates are both over 30% and he’s allowed four HRs in 14.2 innings. The Reds have been hitting with power this year (14.5 HR/FB vs RHP).
James Shields has the lowest combined ERA estimators in today’s main chart and that’s mainly because he knows he can’t allow the ball to be put into play with this defense and has struck out 19 of the 50 batters he’s faced over the last two weeks. He has the second-best SwStr% in the majors and has been in double digits in all six starts. Eight of his mistakes have left the yard though. He really doesn’t want the defense to touch the ball when he’s on the mound. Arizona doesn’t strike out a ton, but does hit the ball hard with a team 15.0 H-S% that is third-best in the majors.
Jared Cosart won’t run up the strikeouts, but has generated a lot of weak ground balls. He has the second-lowest hard hit rate (18.7%) among qualified starters. A matchup with the Giants should only enhance his brand of pitching as they don’t often strike out and don’t often hit HR’s. His H-S% over the last two years added to that of the Giants this season is just 11.9%, the third-lowest mark of the day.
Jason Hammel only has one start with more than 6.1 IP and fewer than three runs allowed, but since it was eight innings of shutout ball, his ERA looks a lot better and is close enough to his estimators. He’s allowed more HRs (4) than walks (2), helping him to a 19.8 K-BB%. The Brewers are an ideal matchup for anyone these days, even at home, and strike out a lot.
Jason Marquis got just one swing and miss in his last start and has struck out just seven of his last 55 batters, but started so strong that he still has an above average K% on the season. He still currently has a 15.1 K-BB%, but has never had a double-digit mark in a major league season. The White Sox have not been good offensively and have not generally impacted the ball hard, but have struck out just 12.6% of the time over the last week.
Jered Weaver may be toast. He’s throwing 84 mph meatballs and has allowed eight bombs already and has by far a career-worst 16.9 H-S%. He has shown some glimpses of still being able to miss bats on occasion though. The Astros haven’t been striking out as often last year and have been the top road offense in baseball. Despite not scoring much over the last few days, they still own a 20.3 HR/FB over the last week.
Jeremy Hellickson has the eighth-worst hit hard rate (35.4%) among qualified starters and has allowed fewer than three ERs in just one of five starts, though he has struck out exactly six in three of those.
Jimmy Nelson was an early favorite in these parts, but it’s all fallen apart. Well, actually, no. He had one bad start vs Cincinnati where he walked five and struck out one with a 5.6 SwStr%. However, he bounced right back with a 13.5 SwStr% and struck out six of 29 Cubs. He hasn’t sustained the heavy groundball rate, though still has an excellent 1.3 H-S% and just low 13.2 LD%. There still looks to be some potential there and the Cubs have the highest combined K% today on the road, vs RHP, and over the last week.
Matt Harvey didn’t have his best stuff last time out on the way to his lowest SwStr (7.5%) of the season. He allowed two of his three HRs on the season to the Phillies last time out and also drilled Chase Utley (after two Mets were hit), who hasn’t hit anything since. Harvey has a 1.1 H-S% this season and the Phillies impact the baseball worse than any other major league team (1.2 H-S%). That’s a combined rate of 2.3%. The Phillies are the worst home offense and vs RHP in baseball, offering the best matchup of the day.
Michael Wacha has allowed one ER or less in four of his five starts without generating many strikeouts. The Pirates at home vs RHP have been a surprisingly good matchup for opposing pitchers this season, though they’ve greatly cut down on their strikeouts recently.
Miguel Gonzalez has been all over the place in his starts this season. Nine of his 12 walks have come in just two of his five starts. He is just 33 innings away from being the only starting pitcher with a career LOB above 80% (500 IP minimum). That’s not just active, but all time. He’s shown some upside with at least five Ks in four starts, but the Yankees have struck out just 11.6% over the last week and have a 13.3 HR/FB at home.
Mike Pelfrey had an odd line his last start, being pulled in the fourth after hitting three batters, despite just two ERs. Cleveland takes advantage of wildness, walking a ton (12.3% over the last week) and combining that with a 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP.
Nate Karns has allowed two ERs or less in four of his six starts and faces the 2nd worst offense vs RHP, but the Rangers are hitting the ball better lately, despite striking out 26.1% over the last week. We’re going to throw up some red flags for him later.
Roberto Hernandez has basically thrown his six innings and allowed his three earned runs in just about every start. No better, no worse usually and that’s exactly what he did against these Angels (with six strikeouts) the last time he faced them. The Angels have struggled vs RHP.
Sonny Gray had a season-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing (though with seven walks) and has a double-digit SwStr% in two of his last three starts now, bringing his rate for the season up to league average, making a lot of Oakland fans very happy. He has allowed more than two ERs just once this season. His 17.1 Hard% is best in the majors. The Mariners impact the ball harder than any team outside of Colorado (16.5 H-S%), but are only really a league average offense overall.
Taijuan Walker had two good starts, but then got destroyed last time out. His 25.3 H-S% this season bears that out and is the 2nd worst of the day. He has a tough matchup against an Oakland team that doesn’t strike out and has already laid a beating on him in his first start of the season.
Tim Lincecum has finally seen his ERA drop, but it’s come with a rise in his estimators. He has a career low 7.5 K-BB% and a 16.9 H-S% that isn’t good, but it seems to be working for him. Maybe it’s the two mph drop in velocity that has forced him to throw a changeup that’s just six mph slower nearly 30% of the time this year. The Marlins are a fairly neutral matchup here in a great park.
Trevor Bauer probably doesn’t know which version we’ll get tonight. Batters couldn’t make contact in his first three starts, though he’s struck out just three of 49 over his last two. He still has the 2nd best Soft rate (30.8%) in the majors. The Twins have the biggest home/road splits in baseball with just a 1.9 HR/FB away from Minnesota.
Wade Miley has not pitched well and faces the Toronto lefty mashers (top offense in the league vs southpaws). They have a 14.2 HR/FB at home.
Yordano Ventura walked four in his last start, striking out just one and has the day’s worst 26.2 H-S% with just 8.8% of his batted balls being of the softly hit variety. The Tigers have been slumping though.
Yovani Gallardo started the sacrificing some ground balls to miss some bats. He’s gone back to throwing more sinkers and getting the ground balls at the expense of missed bats, allowing exactly three ERs in each of his last three starts and has more walks (7) than strikeouts (6) over his last two. Tampa Bay has struck out 23.9% of the time at home, but with a 12.5 HR/FB.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 20.4% | 12.3% | Home | 24.1% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 16.0% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 20.1% | 8.4% | Home | 23.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 4.4% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.2% | 6.5% | Road | 19.6% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 23.4% | 6.5% | Home | 23.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 12.1% |
| David Price | Tigers | 24.1% | 3.7% | Home | 25.7% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 3.5% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 9.8% | 11.3% | Home | 7.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 8.5% |
| Eric Stults | Braves | 14.5% | 5.4% | Road | 15.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 6.9% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.1% | 10.7% | Home | 22.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 16.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.9% | 8.7% | Home | 24.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 5.8% |
| Hector Noesi | White Sox | 16.9% | 8.3% | Home | 18.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 20.5% | 5.9% | Road | 21.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 38.0% | 2.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 14.7% | 10.3% | Road | 16.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 7.8% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 20.1% | 6.1% | Road | 22.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 1.9% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 15.8% | 11.9% | Road | 25.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 18.2% | 6.2% | Home | 21.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 5.6% | 1.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 18.0% | 6.9% | Home | 16.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 6.5% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.3% | 7.6% | Home | 19.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 15.2% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 26.6% | 3.4% | Road | 29.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.3% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.1% | 7.1% | Road | 20.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 17.4% | 7.5% | Road | 17.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 3.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 14.4% | 9.4% | Road | 10.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 21.4% | 10.9% | Home | 19.4% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 8.1% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 15.2% | 8.2% | Road | 14.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 6.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.5% | 8.1% | Road | 20.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 13.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 20.1% | 10.2% | Home | 24.1% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 20.9% | 9.0% | Home | 19.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 21.4% | 9.6% | Home | 21.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 6.1% | 10.2% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 18.8% | 8.1% | Road | 19.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 19.8% | 8.9% | Road | 19.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 18.7% | 7.8% | Road | 17.0% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 12.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 16.9% | 10.2% | RH | 16.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.1% | 7.2% | RH | 23.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 5.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.2% | 6.2% | LH | 26.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 23.2% | 4.4% |
| Mets | Road | 20.3% | 6.8% | LH | 19.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.1% |
| Royals | Road | 17.8% | 5.1% | LH | 12.8% | 5.8% | L7Days | 17.3% | 4.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.5% | 10.1% | RH | 20.4% | 10.7% | L7Days | 26.7% | 11.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.5% | 9.2% | LH | 20.0% | 11.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.0% | 8.4% | LH | 21.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.7% |
| Braves | Road | 17.0% | 9.7% | LH | 21.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.1% | 9.7% |
| Reds | Road | 18.6% | 7.2% | RH | 20.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 18.2% | 8.3% | RH | 18.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 5.7% |
| Giants | Home | 16.9% | 7.5% | RH | 17.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.0% | 6.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 23.7% | 6.8% | RH | 22.8% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.2% | 7.0% | RH | 20.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 12.6% | 8.4% |
| Astros | Road | 21.8% | 9.2% | RH | 23.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% |
| Padres | Road | 21.3% | 6.3% | RH | 20.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.9% | 9.2% | RH | 24.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.2% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.5% | 7.0% | RH | 20.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 5.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.7% | 6.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 15.9% | 9.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.7% | 8.1% | RH | 19.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 11.6% | 7.5% |
| Indians | Home | 17.3% | 10.7% | RH | 17.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 14.8% | 12.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.9% | 8.3% | RH | 20.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.0% |
| Angels | Home | 19.6% | 8.2% | RH | 20.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 18.3% | 6.7% | RH | 20.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 16.9% | 6.9% | RH | 15.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 14.2% | 6.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.3% | 6.6% | RH | 21.7% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.9% |
| Twins | Road | 21.6% | 8.4% | RH | 22.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.5% | 9.1% | LH | 14.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.7% | 7.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 9.4% | RH | 19.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.6% |
| Rays | Home | 23.9% | 9.0% | RH | 21.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.9% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 17.4% | 16.1% | 6.5% | Home | 13.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 22.1% | 9.2% | 11.0% | Home | 22.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | Road | 16.8% | 4.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 21.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | Home | 23.5% | 18.3% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| David Price | Tigers | 21.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | Home | 21.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 21.6% | 10.5% | 18.4% | Home | 23.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Eric Stults | Braves | 21.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | Road | 18.0% | 13.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.6% | 9.9% | 6.2% | Home | 19.8% | 12.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | Home | 22.2% | 1.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Noesi | White Sox | 21.1% | 13.1% | 10.1% | Home | 20.9% | 14.1% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.1% | 10.1% | 10.6% | Road | 17.7% | 12.4% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 19.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | Road | 17.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 23.0% | 12.4% | 9.0% | Road | 22.5% | 12.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 22.1% | 17.2% | 5.4% | Road | 26.7% | 21.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 20.8% | 9.1% | 12.1% | Home | 19.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 21.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | Home | 21.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.2% | 6.7% | 9.6% | Home | 18.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 20.4% | 5.6% | 11.2% | Road | 11.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 19.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% | Road | 20.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% | 21.4% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.0% | 11.4% | 12.2% | Road | 23.1% | 11.9% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.4% | 9.2% | 12.3% | Road | 12.2% | 19.0% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 18.6% | 21.7% | 10.0% | Home | 13.1% | 33.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 20.9% | 15.2% | 9.0% | Road | 21.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 18.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | Road | 15.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 25.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | Home | 22.6% | 0.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 21.7% | 12.0% | 6.8% | Home | 21.6% | 10.9% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 22.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | Home | 22.5% | 7.9% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.8% | 13.1% | 4.0% | Road | 21.5% | 5.7% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 20.7% | 10.1% | 7.2% | Road | 22.6% | 10.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 21.0% | 12.3% | 5.1% | Road | 19.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 17.3% | 12.1% | 14.3% | RH | 19.6% | 10.7% | 13.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.7% | 16.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 19.2% | 14.3% | 6.7% | RH | 23.1% | 17.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.2% | 7.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 25.0% | 11.9% | 6.9% | LH | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | L7Days | 19.0% | 18.2% | 7.3% |
| Mets | Road | 22.9% | 8.1% | 11.7% | LH | 21.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.0% | 11.6% |
| Royals | Road | 26.2% | 8.7% | 11.3% | LH | 23.1% | 7.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.8% | 19.8% | 9.9% | RH | 22.0% | 20.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.4% | 12.4% | 11.3% | LH | 19.0% | 10.9% | 4.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.8% | 19.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.7% | 12.1% | 11.0% | LH | 19.1% | 3.8% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Braves | Road | 21.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | LH | 19.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 13.2% | 3.8% |
| Reds | Road | 21.9% | 13.0% | 9.3% | RH | 20.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 12.3% | 3.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | RH | 21.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 21.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | RH | 22.7% | 7.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 19.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | RH | 19.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.7% | 6.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | RH | 24.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | L7Days | 26.3% | 5.4% | 10.8% |
| Astros | Road | 25.4% | 13.6% | 10.9% | RH | 22.5% | 14.8% | 12.2% | L7Days | 18.0% | 20.3% | 9.4% |
| Padres | Road | 19.1% | 8.7% | 5.5% | RH | 17.7% | 11.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | RH | 20.1% | 9.8% | 14.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.1% | 7.6% | 9.8% | RH | 21.4% | 6.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 4.2% | 12.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.7% | 12.6% | 4.2% | RH | 20.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.3% | 14.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.0% | 13.3% | 11.1% | RH | 20.7% | 12.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Indians | Home | 25.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | RH | 20.9% | 13.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 16.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | RH | 16.6% | 5.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 13.6% | 12.1% |
| Angels | Home | 23.3% | 10.8% | 12.3% | RH | 20.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 14.9% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 9.9% | 7.4% | RH | 19.1% | 11.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 16.9% | 14.7% | 8.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.5% | 11.9% | 8.8% | RH | 22.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 11.6% | 14.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 26.2% | 11.3% | 9.3% | RH | 23.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Twins | Road | 20.6% | 1.9% | 19.2% | RH | 21.9% | 8.3% | 14.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 18.8% | 14.2% | 15.0% | LH | 22.0% | 10.2% | 16.9% | L7Days | 19.3% | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 23.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | RH | 22.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Rays | Home | 20.3% | 12.5% | 15.4% | RH | 19.4% | 8.2% | 13.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.8% | 15.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 18.4% | 6.2% | 2.97 | 18.4% | 6.2% | 2.97 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 12.6% | 7.8% | 1.62 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 1.62 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 14.2% | 5.8% | 2.45 | 14.2% | 5.8% | 2.45 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 24.1% | 11.1% | 2.17 | 23.7% | 10.5% | 2.26 |
| David Price | DET | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.00 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 2.01 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 13.6% | 6.8% | 2.00 | 13.6% | 6.8% | 2.00 |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2.51 | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2.51 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.12 | 27.6% | 12.1% | 2.28 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 23.3% | 7.6% | 3.07 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 3.07 |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | 19.4% | 13.5% | 1.44 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 1.44 |
| James Shields | SDG | 31.2% | 15.1% | 2.07 | 31.5% | 15.2% | 2.07 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.07 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.07 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.93 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.93 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.52 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.52 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 9.9% | 7.4% | 1.34 | 11.1% | 8.0% | 1.39 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 17.3% | 9.4% | 1.84 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 1.84 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 21.1% | 11.4% | 1.85 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 1.85 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 25.8% | 11.3% | 2.28 | 25.8% | 11.3% | 2.28 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 13.4% | 7.7% | 1.74 | 13.4% | 7.7% | 1.74 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.29 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.29 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 13.8% | 6.6% | 2.09 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 2.09 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 21.0% | 6.9% | 3.04 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 3.04 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 13.9% | 7.2% | 1.93 | 13.9% | 7.2% | 1.93 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 21.0% | 8.6% | 2.44 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 2.46 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.14 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.14 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 16.7% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 1.76 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 23.4% | 10.6% | 2.21 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 2.21 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 12.9% | 6.8% | 1.90 | 12.9% | 6.8% | 1.90 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 17.7% | 8.5% | 2.08 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 2.48 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 18.4% | 7.1% | 2.59 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 2.54 |
Aaron Sanchez – For a guy that gets so much praise for his stuff, he hasn’t had a game this year with an above average SwStr%.
Adam Warren has had a SwStr above 8.5% in three of his five starts, but more than three strikeouts just once.
Gio Gonzalez is right at his career K%, but don’t be fooled into thinking there’s nothing wrong. His SwStr is 1.8 points below his career 9.4% rate. His velocity is steady, but he seems to be using his sinker slightly more than his four-seam for some reason. Whiffs are down significantly on all of his pitches though. The good news is that his first two starts were his lowest SwStr marks.
Hector Noesi has had a double-digit SwStr% in all three starts.
Jason Hammel has lost a minimal amount of last season’s 22.1 K% despite a significant loss on last season’s 9.6 SwStr%, but it’s early yet.
Jered Weaver has had an above average SwStr rate in half of his six starts, but it’s been below 5.5% in each of the other three with his highest mark (10.6%) coming against Kansas City of all teams. Despite everything else, there should still be some bounce back in his K-rate coming.
Nate Karns posted an above average SwStr% for the first time in six starts last time out and it actually led to just four strikeouts. That was against a Baltimore team that swings and misses at the 3rd highest rate in the majors (10.8%). It would probably be safe to expect his K% to drop below league average.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 4.62 | 5.21 | 0.59 | 4.65 | 0.03 | 5.9 | 1.28 | 4.62 | 5.21 | 0.59 | 4.65 | 0.03 | 5.9 | 1.28 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 4.78 | 4.98 | 0.2 | 4.83 | 0.05 | 4.31 | -0.47 | 4.78 | 4.98 | 0.2 | 4.83 | 0.05 | 4.31 | -0.47 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4.21 | 3.48 | -0.73 | 3.5 | -0.71 | 3.45 | -0.76 | 4.21 | 3.48 | -0.73 | 3.5 | -0.71 | 3.45 | -0.76 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 4.14 | 4 | -0.14 | 3.88 | -0.26 | 5.43 | 1.29 | 3.66 | 3.92 | 0.26 | 3.74 | 0.08 | 4.26 | 0.6 |
| David Price | DET | 2.93 | 3.89 | 0.96 | 3.86 | 0.93 | 3.01 | 0.08 | 3.73 | 3.97 | 0.24 | 3.99 | 0.26 | 3.3 | -0.43 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 3.81 | 5.17 | 1.36 | 5.07 | 1.26 | 4.87 | 1.06 | 3.81 | 5.17 | 1.36 | 5.07 | 1.26 | 4.87 | 1.06 |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 4.91 | 4.79 | -0.12 | 4.6 | -0.31 | 5.05 | 0.14 | 4.91 | 4.79 | -0.12 | 4.6 | -0.31 | 5.05 | 0.14 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 1.95 | 3.64 | 1.69 | 3.4 | 1.45 | 3.32 | 1.37 | 1.78 | 3.63 | 1.85 | 3.41 | 1.63 | 3.06 | 1.28 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.86 | 3.43 | -0.43 | 3.2 | -0.66 | 2.91 | -0.95 | 3.86 | 3.43 | -0.43 | 3.2 | -0.66 | 2.91 | -0.95 |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | 6.75 | 5.04 | -1.71 | 5.64 | -1.11 | 6.96 | 0.21 | 6.75 | 5.05 | -1.7 | 5.64 | -1.11 | 6.96 | 0.21 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.72 | 2.57 | -1.15 | 2.8 | -0.92 | 3.99 | 0.27 | 3.86 | 2.51 | -1.35 | 2.74 | -1.12 | 3.96 | 0.1 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 2.97 | 3.9 | 0.93 | 3.78 | 0.81 | 3.7 | 0.73 | 2.97 | 3.91 | 0.94 | 3.78 | 0.81 | 3.7 | 0.73 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.73 | 3.25 | -0.48 | 3.31 | -0.42 | 3.36 | -0.37 | 3.73 | 3.25 | -0.48 | 3.31 | -0.42 | 3.36 | -0.37 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 5.22 | 3.54 | -1.68 | 3.5 | -1.72 | 4.02 | -1.2 | 5.22 | 3.54 | -1.68 | 3.5 | -1.72 | 4.02 | -1.2 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 6.29 | 4.84 | -1.45 | 4.77 | -1.52 | 5.82 | -0.47 | 6.35 | 4.64 | -1.71 | 4.61 | -1.74 | 6 | -0.35 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 5.2 | 4.18 | -1.02 | 4 | -1.2 | 3.46 | -1.74 | 5.2 | 4.19 | -1.01 | 4 | -1.2 | 3.46 | -1.74 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.03 | 4.01 | -0.02 | 4.1 | 0.07 | 3.28 | -0.75 | 4.03 | 4.01 | -0.02 | 4.1 | 0.07 | 3.28 | -0.75 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2.41 | 2.81 | 0.4 | 2.91 | 0.5 | 2.81 | 0.4 | 2.41 | 2.82 | 0.41 | 2.91 | 0.5 | 2.81 | 0.4 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 1.93 | 4.25 | 2.32 | 4.07 | 2.14 | 3.66 | 1.73 | 1.93 | 4.26 | 2.33 | 4.07 | 2.14 | 3.66 | 1.73 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 2.59 | 4.05 | 1.46 | 3.96 | 1.37 | 3.9 | 1.31 | 2.59 | 4.05 | 1.46 | 3.96 | 1.37 | 3.9 | 1.31 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.63 | 4.6 | 1.97 | 4.93 | 2.3 | 4.78 | 2.15 | 2.63 | 4.6 | 1.97 | 4.93 | 2.3 | 4.78 | 2.15 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 4.05 | 4.44 | 0.39 | 4.46 | 0.41 | 5.06 | 1.01 | 4.05 | 4.44 | 0.39 | 4.46 | 0.41 | 5.06 | 1.01 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 4.25 | 4.38 | 0.13 | 4.14 | -0.11 | 4.65 | 0.4 | 4.25 | 4.39 | 0.14 | 4.14 | -0.11 | 4.65 | 0.4 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 1.67 | 3.86 | 2.19 | 3.95 | 2.28 | 2.86 | 1.19 | 2.06 | 3.74 | 1.68 | 3.79 | 1.73 | 2.79 | 0.73 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 8.74 | 4.54 | -4.2 | 4.82 | -3.92 | 5.43 | -3.31 | 8.74 | 4.55 | -4.19 | 4.82 | -3.92 | 5.43 | -3.31 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 2.4 | 4.21 | 1.81 | 3.99 | 1.59 | 3.34 | 0.94 | 2.4 | 4.21 | 1.81 | 3.99 | 1.59 | 3.34 | 0.94 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.38 | 4.29 | 0.91 | 4.25 | 0.87 | 3.79 | 0.41 | 3.38 | 4.3 | 0.92 | 4.25 | 0.87 | 3.79 | 0.41 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 7.15 | 5.23 | -1.92 | 5.13 | -2.02 | 4.02 | -3.13 | 7.15 | 5.24 | -1.91 | 5.13 | -2.02 | 4.02 | -3.13 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.94 | 4.13 | -0.81 | 4.2 | -0.74 | 5 | 0.06 | 5.91 | 4.02 | -1.89 | 4.08 | -1.83 | 4.82 | -1.09 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 4.05 | 4 | -0.05 | 3.86 | -0.19 | 4.16 | 0.11 | 3.38 | 4.12 | 0.74 | 3.92 | 0.54 | 4.09 | 0.71 |
Eddie Butler – None of his BABIP, LOB%, or HR/FB are that far out of line (though an 8.7 HR/FB in Colorado may be questioned), but it’s hard to sustain an ERA under four with a 0.8 K-BB%.
Francisco Liriano is stranding 84.6% with the help of his .167 BABIP. He hasn’t historically been able to suppress BABIP and, in fact, carries one of the highest line drive rates of his career so far (23.3%). Batters aren’t hitting the ball hard, but we know from the open that this correlates more with performance and extra base hits than BABIP in general. There’s an adjustment coming, but not a big enough one that it’ll keep him from being an effect high strikeout option for daily fantasy players most times he takes the mound.
Jason Marquis has 27 fly balls without a pop up and a pretty awful 19.4 H-S%, but that should affect his overall production (extra base hits and such) more than his BABIP and it has. Four of those fly balls have left the yard (14.8 HR/FB). His 66.8 LOB% is low, but not that far off from his career rate.
Jered Weaver – This is all about the 16.0 HR/FB and I don’t know that it’s normalizing with what he’s throwing up there. Look towards the FIP. His HR/FB and IFFB% have switched places. He has career worst marks in both right now.
Jeremy Hellickson has allowed just two HRs as most of his hard hit balls have come in the form of line drives (24.7%), though he’s also failed to generate pop ups. While for a few years to start his career, an excellent defense may have made him look much better than he actually was for Tampa Bay, he’s on the opposite end of the spectrum now and likely to see some regression the other way. I’m not sure he’ll be able to sustain a 6.7 HR/FB in Arizona though, especially since his career rate from pitching in Tampa Bay is perfectly league average.
Michael Wacha has allowed just 22.4% of his batted balls hit hard, but has allowed just two HRs, but also has a low 7.5 K-BB%. He has some positive indicators towards a lower BABIP, including a half as many pop ups already (4) as he had all of last season as well as a low and potentially sustainable 17.0 LD%. His BABIP and 87 LOB% are still looking at an adjustment though.
Miguel Gonzalez generates a lot of pop ups and has a strong defense behind him. Despite a 23.0 LD% and 21.4% career rate, his current BABIP is not far from his career rate, though in fewer than 500 career innings so far. There’s probably some regression in his BABIP and definitely his 85.4 LOB%, but maybe not all that much and some of that may come from a team defensive standpoint.
Mike Pelfrey – His .259 BABIP is 50 points below his career mark, but he’s currently sitting on a career-best 17.1 LD% and 2.09 GB/FB that would be the second-best of his career with an excellent -1.2 H-S%. He’s being hit, but not hard. The 83.3 LOB% should come back to the pack, so his ERA has some climbing to do.
Sonny Gray – Oakland is a nice park with a lot of foul ground, but it’s not going to allow a pitcher to maintain a 2.3 HR/FB. The .233 BABIP and 81.7 LOB% probably also have some regression in them as well, despite a 14.7 LD%.
Taijuan Walker has too much talent to have a .400 BABIP, but he has been hit very hard. Hey, it’s not like any of his estimators are actually good, but that BABIP combined with a 56.6 LOB% just isn’t something any major league pitcher can sustain. There aren’t actually many good signs though.
Tim Lincecum was able to suppress HRs in the early part of his career and then couldn’t keep the ball in the park for the last three years. This year, only one of his 24 fly balls have left the park.
Wade Miley – The good news is that the BABIP isn’t really out of line and he can’t sustain a 47.6 LOB%. The bad news is that he’s somehow done that with a 3.6 HR/FB that has actually pulled his FIP down. Imagine what his ERA would be with a league average HR rate, which he has for his career.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.299 | 0.275 | -0.024 | 6.7% | 92.4% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.289 | 0.274 | -0.015 | 17.2% | 89.1% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.283 | 0.341 | 0.058 | 5.0% | 95.3% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 0.314 | 0.247 | -0.067 | 14.7% | 89.1% |
| David Price | DET | 0.282 | 0.271 | -0.011 | 11.4% | 83.8% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.332 | 0.313 | -0.019 | 26.1% | 90.6% |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 0.284 | 0.274 | -0.01 | 5.3% | 95.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.308 | 0.167 | -0.141 | 9.5% | 88.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.329 | 0.391 | 0.062 | 0.0% | 88.8% |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | 0.321 | 0.225 | -0.096 | 29.2% | 73.3% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.299 | 0.322 | 0.023 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 0.271 | 0.213 | -0.058 | 9.5% | 91.5% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.307 | 0.283 | -0.024 | 2.7% | 93.1% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 0.259 | 0.345 | 0.086 | 0.0% | 85.5% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.270 | 0.303 | 0.033 | 8.0% | 86.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.296 | 0.372 | 0.076 | 3.3% | 85.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.289 | -0.011 | 11.1% | 87.7% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.282 | 0.270 | -0.012 | 16.1% | 84.9% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.282 | 0.229 | -0.053 | 13.8% | 86.1% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.260 | 0.247 | -0.013 | 16.7% | 90.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.285 | 0.259 | -0.026 | 13.6% | 93.0% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.255 | 0.188 | -0.067 | 6.1% | 87.8% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 0.265 | 0.261 | -0.004 | 7.4% | 90.9% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.277 | 0.233 | -0.044 | 9.1% | 88.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.298 | 0.400 | 0.102 | 3.6% | 85.6% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0.289 | 0.284 | -0.005 | 4.2% | 84.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.342 | 0.263 | -0.079 | 27.6% | 85.8% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.305 | 0.303 | -0.002 | 3.6% | 87.2% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.254 | 0.250 | -0.004 | 0.0% | 93.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.295 | 0.308 | 0.013 | 3.2% | 87.2% |
Brett Anderson just dominantly forces balls on the ground at a rate above 60% again with just a 16.3 LD%, yet has had a BABIP of at least .313 in each of his last four starts. He doesn’t any other trends that would push him towards being a low BABIP guy, backed up by his .309 career rate, but he should probably expect a few more ground balls to turn into outs going forward.
Cole Hamels – We knew he wouldn’t stay below .200 forever as we’ve seen a big normalizing effect over his last few starts. He is a guy that gets a lot of pop ups and has a .284 career rate, so there’s hope that it doesn’t have much further to go.
Gio Gonzalez – As noted in the SwStr chart, he’s throwing more sinkers and the result is a 3.06 GB/FB against his 1.39 career rate, but also the highest LD% (23.5) of his career so far. He’s only allowed 16 fly balls. A pitcher tilting this heavily towards ground balls may be one instance where it’s worth looking at his batted ball authority in relation to batting average and only 19.3% of them have been hit hard, which is fourth-best in the majors. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to start pitching to contact because the Washington defense has been terrible.
Jared Cosart is doing all the normal stuff, but again, as a heavy ground ball pitcher, a -5.5 H-S% might come into play here as lots of weak groundballs will help your BABIP.
Nate Karns – While his ERA estimators have been kept in check by a 15.2 HR/FB, this BABIP is just not sustainable despite a 14.6 LD% and great team defense.
Trevor Bauer – It’s not that his BABIP is shockingly low, but Cleveland can’t seem to catch the damn ball. I guess not even they can screw up the eight pop ups though.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
I’m going to put a rare note here and start by saying that there are really no standout values in terms of price today, so you might be best off just using the guys you expect to perform best and find value in your offense. This is probably the toughest Notes and Summary section I’ve had to write this year. I’m really up in the air on just about everybody.
Adam Warren – If you really want to dumpster dive, let’s start here, not because he’s been good, but because the Orioles have been striking out a ton and are ice cold on offense. Chris Davis hasn’t touched the baseball since Monday (slight exaggeration). The one thing they have continued to do though, is hit HRs.
Brett Anderson – I never recommend pitchers in Colorado, but Anderson may be the type that can have some success there because of the ground balls. He doesn’t even have to be good at today’s price.
Cole Hamels will probably be ok, but doesn’t come cheap and his control issues have become concerning.
David Price might not have enough upside for the cost against a team that doesn’t miss the baseball. As a matter of fact he just threw a complete game against them allowing a single run, but with just three strikeouts. You might need a repeat of that for him to give you much value beyond the price tag.
Francisco Liriano – The Cardinals may be the type of patient team that can give him some trouble. What? He just allowed a single run against them in eight innings in his last start. He only struck out four and walked three though, turning five line drives into just three hits. If he pitches similarly, I’d not expect such great results to be repeated.
Gio Gonzalez is kind of hit or miss, which is why I generally don’t like paying up for him, but there are flaws in mostly every pitcher today. It’s like the land of used to be good tonight.
James Shields – The HRs and park are concerning, but the strikeouts should give him a strong base to work with.
Jason Hammel has only had one really good start this season and the strikeout rate may not be real with the drop in swinging strikes, but he won’t walk anybody and the Brewers offer a great opportunity to find some health in the bat missing department at a middle of the board price.
Jeremy Hellickson is a risk, but may offer a little bit more upside than his traditional numbers (ERA) indicate against a slumping offense at a very low price.
Jimmy Nelson has only really had one bad start. He’s very affordable on most site and should be able to generate some Ks, but hasn’t been keeping the ball on the ground as much lately.
Matt Harvey has had a few starts where he hasn’t had his best stuff this season, but there are extenuating circumstances such as illness and Tommy John surgery. Never the less, he has a high floor, an enormous ceiling, and the best matchup of the day. As a Mets fan, I’ve been trained to have this impending feeling of doom when things are supposed to be looking their best, but this is where your fake salary dollars should go today and I expect they will in most cases.
Michael Wacha is in a solid spot and should be fine, but I’m not sure he’ll generate enough strikeouts to provide value beyond his price tag.
Roberto Hernandez – Let’s go dumpster diving again. He’s not good and hasn’t been good, but he hasn’t been terrible either and faces a team that hasn’t hit RH pitching. So Trout will probably do his thing and everyone else probably won’t.
Sonny Gray is showing some more upside recently, but I’m hoping the seven walks was a fluke. The concern here though is that he was allowed to throw 119 pitches last time out and isn’t cheap. The Mariners aren’t a push over either, though the park should help.
Trevor Bauer – This start could have any number of results that wouldn’t surprise me. I wouldn’t hate taking a shot in GPPs where affordable, but don’t trust him otherwise.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.