Advanced Stats Pitching Charts - Mon 8/11
We kick off the week on the new RG with a 10 game night schedule on Monday after punting the day game. Considering the King is on the mound tonight, maybe you’re only looking for a #2 now. Let’s try to figure it out below. A short note on this week’s posting schedule: Wednesday’s article is currently in question, but I will know and post in tomorrow’s open for sure whether that will be happening on or not.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. 2013+ is since the start of that season. Combo stats are explained below.
Brad Peacock – he has some bright red numbers that nobody comes close to today, but also the greenest IFFB.
Bud Norris – has a decent assignment and a top defense. He has the reddest LD% and we’ll talk a bit later about some skepticism in his recent K%.
Chris Capuano – has excelled as a starter for the Yankees (6 ER in 19 IP), but faces one of the better hitting teams vs LHP and hottest bats over the last week, giving him what may be the toughest mathcup of the day. Walks projecting to be at a premium will benefit him, though the HR’s may be a problem.
Colby Lewis – things have gotten better since his blowup double digit run outing. Some of the factors behind it are unsustainable, but so were some of the ones that made him so bad in the first place. Tonight, he faces a cold offense, but in a terrible park and a K% for the crapper.
Drew Hutchison – has had an up and down year with his last start happening to be of the up variety (8.2 IP – 1 ER – 8 K). Seattle is usually a favorable spot, but the bats have woken up over the last week.
Drew Smyly – the Rangers hit LHP ok and have been decent recently, but have the worst park adjusted home offense in the majors. Key words: Park Adjusted because it’s certainly an extreme hitter’s park.
Felix Hernandez – today’s pitching deity may face resistance vs the top offensive team vs RHP. They may pull down his K%, but it’s still the day’s greenest. Nobody comes close to his ERA estimators across the board.
Jake Arrieta – was pounded last time out, but you can usually forgive things that happen in Colorado with all else being equal. The Brewers aren’t what you’d call an easy matchup.
Jeff Locke – there’s a lot of extreme here. The Tigers are the 2nd best hitting team vs LHP, but the 2nd coldest set of bats over the last week (Red Sox 21 wRC+). He’s been giving up a lot of HR’s lately.
Jesse Hahn – you wouldn’t know it by looking at his ERA, but his peripheral numbers have gone in the tank. It’s been mostly BABIP driven lately, but facing the 3rd worst offense in SD could help sustain him for at least one more start. Look below for more on that HR/FB.
Jordan Lyles – the Padres have turned back into a pumpkin and are still the worst vs RHP (or tied with the Cubs). Including the park, he probably has the best matchup of the day.
Julio Teheran – has had a bit of a HR issue of late and may have a little more red in his chart than you’d like. The Dodger bats are 3rd best both on the road and vs RHP.
Justin Verlander – the results have been better lately, but the peripherals just mediocre. This Pittsburgh team, while weakened, is still one of the top home offenses and vs RHP in baseball, tied for 4th in wRC+ in both.
Kevin Correia – I didn’t even notice the Dodgers had acquired him. The good news is that he’s been almost league average recently and the Braves struggle with RHP.
Shelby Miller – has been better, though some of it is BABIP related. The Marlins should boost some of his categories.
Sonny Gray – was hit around in his last start and while the Royals don’t scare anybody with the 2nd worst home offense in baseball, they do enough to annoy opposing pitcher daily fantasy point accumulation.
Tom Koehler – has some ugly in his line today including the reddest K%. He also has the day’s greenest HR/FB.
Tommy Milone – the BABIP chart at the bottom will tell you a lot of what you need to know to be concerned, but the Astros are 3rd best vs LHP. Though they’ll strike out a lot, they’re also liable to take him deep a time or two.
Yordano Ventura – the A’s are one of the top teams vs RHP, but he has been pitching well with more strikeouts and does have some things in his favor today.
Yovani Gallardo – the Cubs have company. They are tied for 2nd worst home offense and worst vs RHP. At least they’re not alone. Although, when you combine those marks, they’re probably worse than any other team on a park adjusted basis.
Combo K/BB Chart
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but were originally due to space limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows, but now, you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
Brad Peacock – while all walk rates are red, his personal rates are atrocious. The Twins can be a patient team.
Chris Capuano – while we have to note most of his work has come out of the bullpen this season, he hasn’t walked just one of his last 55 batters and the Orioles are prone to hacking up there.
Colby Lewis – the highest rate in his line is Tampa Bay’s 18.5% mark on the road and that’s still a decent bit below league average. If he gets 5 tonight, it’ll be a surprise.
Felix Hernandez – the Blue Jays certainly won’t help his K rate today, but he’s good enough that he should still generate a strong accounting of himself in that all important department today.
Shelby Miller – the Marlins strike out more than any other team vs RHP.
Tom Koehler – has struck out 4 or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Marlins love those guys that throw hard, but don’t miss bats.
Tommy Milone – the Astros will add some K’s to his line.
Combo Batted Ball Chart
Ditto for the Combo Batted Ball stats in the Main Chart above.
Brad Peacock – all pop up rates are at least league average and Peacock has really been good at generating them at home, but the Twins (who played a series in Oakland) have really had a problem over the last week, pulling the overall number up.
Bud Norris – some of the LD%’s in his line are around league average, but all are red as far as his comparison to others on the mound today. His home mark is a little rough as well.
Chris Capuano – the Orioles have the 4th best HR/FB at home and 2nd vs LHP, while just crushing the ball this week.
Drew Smyly – inducing pop ups is something he excels at. He’s also allowed 11 LD’s over his last 2 starts, really pulling up his number in the main chart.
Jeff Locke – I’m continually surprised by the lack of power in the Detroit bats, expecting them to be well above league average. Locke may help them cure that today. He allowed 4 HR’s in his first 8 starts, then reversed those numbers to 8 in his last 4.
Jesse Hahn – why are the HR’s so high when the game is being played at Petco? We can dismiss some of the Colorado numbers due to their home park, but not the league average rate on the road obviously. The real surprise here is that Hahn has a 13.3 HR/FB at home, but he’s only allowed 15 fly balls at home in 5 starts.
Shelby Miller – all but his road LD% are below league average, with only 5 allowed in his last 4 starts total. HR’s are another issue with the lowest mark in his line being 9.4, but you don’t expect a lot of balls to leave the yard in Miami.
Sonny Gray – when you see a 10.6 HR/FB in a KC game, you have to look and just as I thought, it’s all in the most recent performances on both sides.
Tom Koehler – pitches in a tough park to hit the ball out of and this year’s Cardinals are not a power team.
Tommy Milone – we’re looking at the potential for some HR’s today.
Yovani Gallardo – the LD’s don’t really jump out except for the Cubs 24.5% over the last week. He keeps the ball on the ground these days and rarely induces pop ups.
K/SwStr Chart
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing can make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Bud Norris – I am absolutely not buying the strikeout binge and now his season numbers are getting close to being out of range. The good news for the believers is that he had a 10.7 SwStr% in his last start, but had just a 2.7 SwStr% the start before.
Chris Capuano – had a 5.3 SwStr% in his 1st start as a Yankee. It’s been 13.3% and 11.9% in his last 2.
Drew Smyly – has the highest SwStr% over the last 30 days among today’s pitchers. That includes an 11.5+ mark in 3 of his last 4 starts and an impressive 13.1% against the tough to fan A’s in his 1st start as a Ray.
Jesse Hahn – not a lot of people have noticed that he hasn’t been the same pitcher over the last month and neither his SwStr% nor K% are immune.
Kevin Correia – has had a 6.2 SwStr% low over his last 4 starts, which is better than any mark he had put up in 17 of his previous 18 starts. Maybe this is what the Dodgers saw? Note his SwStr% for the last month is higher than Bud Norris, while his K% is less than half.
ERA Estimators Chart
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Brad Peacock – has been blasted in 9 innings over the last month. Aside from the things that may be out of his control, he walked 10 batters, struck out 7, and was taken deep 5 times. Yes, I did say just 9 innings.
Bud Norris – assume that his K% is more befitting his SwStr% over the last month and the gap gets even bigger. Strangely, he’s allowed a .394 BABIP over his last 4 starts, but stranded 82.4% of runners and allowed just 1 HR. Here’s a deeper look for those who care.
Colby Lewis – since he got bombed for 11 ER’s in 2.1 IP exactly 1 month and 1 day ago, he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER’s in a start since. If you think he suddenly figured it out, this has more to do with the .244 BABIP and 85.6 LOB% since with just 2 HR’s allowed. 3 of his 4 starts have been on the road, but all in extreme hitting parks.
Drew Hutchison – you see the same SwStr% and K% rates across in the chart above this one, but his strand rate has dropped to 58.6% over the last month. Nothing else has really changed too much.
Drew Smyly – over his last 4 starts, his BABIP has been .397. It’s been .400+ in each of his last 3, including his 1st with the shiny new defense last time out. Oddly, he did not allow a HR in any of those 3 starts.
Jake Arrieta – we’re really only looking at one bad start his last time out in Colorado (9 ER’s). He allowed 4 fly balls and 1 left the park, along with 6 line drives, and 11 ground balls for a .545 BABIP and 39.7 LOB%. That’s gonna mess with your numbers for a while.
Jeff Locke- there’s a .340 BABIP over his last 5 starts, but this is obviously a HR problem from just looking at the FIP in relation to everything else. Sure enough, he’s been bombed for 8 HR’s over his last 4 starts, good for a 28.6 HR/FB.
Jesse Hahn – so the K’s have dropped, the jumped to 13.3% over the last month and yet he’s not missing a beat on his ERA. His BABIP, which is now down to .233 on the year, is only .191 over his last 4 starts with an 82 LOB%. Tread with caution, a lot of it. He may be tiring as he nears his innings limit for the season. He’s never pitched more than 69 as a professional before this year.
Jordan Lyles – has just 6 innings over the last month.
Julio Teheran – has a 16.7 HR/FB over the last month. His ERA matches his FIP.
Shelby Miller- he’s been better lately for sure, but the .167 BABIP and 91.8 LOB% over his last 4 starts is making it look a little too good.
Tom Koehler – is another case where the FIP matches. He’s only pitched in 1 offensive park over his last 5 starts, allowing his only HR there. He is not a true talent 2.6 HR/FB. His .255 BABIP in that stretch is actually offset by a 66.5 LOB%.
Tommy Milone – Minnesota is still a pitcher’s park, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens with the loss of all that foul territory in regards to his BABIP.
BABIP Chart
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it (green). If you have a pitcher with a much higher BABIP (green), but decent IFFB and Z-Contact rates you may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
Colby Lewis – we knew he wasn’t a true talent .400 BABIP, but neither is he the .244 we’ve seen over the last month.
Drew Smyly – wouldn’t be given a second look if he were still in Detroit. Now, his defense is better and we’d expect his BABIP to trend down just a bit and maybe more with that IFFB.
Jesse Hahn – is good at avoiding good contact and his team has been good at suppressing BABIP, but he’s still due for an adjustment.
Julio Teheran – had a .288 BABIP last year with a 12.4 IFFB% and similar LD% and Z-Contact%. I’d guess his true talent is a little bit closer to his team’s mark.
Shelby Miller – we noted that a sub.200 BABIP has played a huge part in his resurgence recently.
Tom Koehler – had a .289 BABIP last year and has limited LD’s to 17% this year, but doesn’t induce many pop ups. I’d project a bit of a climb going forward.
Tommy Milone – as we said above, Minnesota is still a pitcher’s park, but without all the foul territory Oakland has. He’s also losing a full 40 points in BABIP from the team defense! Like Smyly, we wouldn’t even blink at his current BABIP in tandem with the Oakland defense, but now it’s an issue. You would never guess that his IFFB (15.8%) is actually higher on the road than at home (12.5%) this year, but that’s not the case for his career. While his 12.4% still hits the mark in Oakland, it drops to a slightly better than league average 10.7% on the road.
Yordano Ventura – has the 7th best Z-Contact rate among qualifiers.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Chris Capuano – could be in the category of “guys my spreadsheet likes more than me”. Of course, the fear is that the O’s could bomb him with their RH power bats. The upside is that he has pitched well in 3 Yankee starts (19 IP – 6 ER – 5 BB – 17 K) against tough offenses in tough parks. The thought is that at one of the day’s lowest prices, you wouldn’t need much out of him to pair him with Felix and then be able to afford some offense.
Drew Hutchison – is not reliable, but is coming off his best outing of the year (8.2 IP – 1 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 8 K) and you’re always going to take a look at a bottom of the board pitcher in Seattle, especially if he has occasional upside in his K-rate.
Felix Hernandez – does it even matter who he’s facing or what the price is, especially when he’s at home? Ok, I guess the price does matter, but not that much today. Now you have to find a #2.
Jeff Locke – 8 HR’s is a lot in 4 games and the Tigers hit LHP hard, but 5 of those HR’s were in COL & ARI. Pittsburgh is a tough park for RH power and he did strike out 7 without a walk in his last start. His price is low and the Tigers are cold. He could be a sleeper today.
Jesse Hahn- is one of 2 pitchers I’m mentioning down here, but not really recommending. I don’t hate him because it’s the Rockies in Petco. Maybe he strings it out for another day, but beware that his K & BB rates have both tanked. He’s running on BABIP now.
Jordan Lyles – the Padres are back to being a Plug & Play, right? You’re taking a not terrible pitcher out of Colorado and putting him in Petco while maintaining a bottom of the board price. He’s allowed 2 ER’s or less in each of his last 5 road starts with 24 K’s, but 12 BB’s in 30 IP. You’re not asking for much more than that at this price though.
Justin Verlander – on a slow day at a middling price, I may be finally ready to consider Verlander against a weakened Pittsburgh offense in a good park. I’m not ready to say he’s back, by any means, but he has been better, especially in his last 2 starts (15 IP – 4 ER – 1 BB – 10 K). He’s gone at least 7 IP in each of his last 3, his 2nd such stretch this season. If nothing else, he could churn out another quality start here.
Shelby Miller – I’m not buying the BABIP and 91.8 LOB% over the last month, but I am buying how often the Miami offense fans and how little they hit. I’m surprised his price hasn’t moved higher yet too.
Sonny Gray – is the other pitcher I’m mentioning, but not really high on today considering the price and matchup. While the Royals aren’t likely to hurt you much, you’re paying the 2nd highest price on the board in most places without the high strikeout upside and he is coming off his worst outing of the year. He did strike out 7 Royals and allow a single run in 7 innings at home 2 starts back though.
Yordano Ventura – it’s a tough day after Felix, so I’m trying to explore some risky options. He doesn’t have the best matchup for a RHP, but if you’re looking for another middle of the board price tag with some upside, this is probably it. The A’s don’t strike out much and should bring his rate down a bit, but he has struck out at least 7 in each of his last 3 starts (22 K – 19.1 IP) and the A’s are below average offensively on the road.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.