Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, April 27th
Two teams have off on Monday and two more games have an odd start time an hour before the normal night schedule kicks off. There don’t seem to be many daily fantasy contests offering those games, but we’ll cover them just in case you’re inclined to find one. We finally have 2015 team defense (UZR) stats. That changes everything… or maybe at least some things.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Editor’s Note: The Chicago at Baltimore game has been postponed due to safety concerns in the Baltimore area. Do not roster any players from the White Sox or Orioles tonight.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ | CombK% | CombBB% | CombLD% | CombHR/FB% | CombIFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 6.3 | 3.64 | 4.67 | 2.85 | 1.07 | 3.73 | 6.19 | BOS | 96 | 94 | 93 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 14.9% | 9.3% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | -12.6 | 3.61 | 4.6 | 1.39 | 1.02 | 3.2 | 5.75 | TAM | 111 | 109 | 133 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 20.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4.6 | 3.32 | 5.28 | 2.8 | 0.89 | 4.58 | 3.49 | SFO | 105 | 99 | 129 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 22.9% | 11.3% | 7.8% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 6.7 | 3.72 | 5.5 | 1.15 | 1.09 | 3.58 | 3.08 | COL | 100 | 105 | 115 | 19.7% | 5.8% | 22.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 2.5 | 3.32 | 6.73 | 1.36 | 0.98 | 3.39 | 4.15 | STL | 91 | 105 | 122 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 19.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 9.6 | 3.35 | 5.94 | 1.32 | 0.84 | 3.08 | 2.52 | SDG | 117 | 101 | 124 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 21.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -1.7 | 2.84 | 6.54 | 1.58 | 0.94 | 2.51 | 2.73 | KAN | 113 | 120 | 96 | 20.9% | 5.2% | 22.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% |
| David Price | DET | 11.2 | 3 | 7.14 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 2.86 | 4.05 | MIN | 90 | 78 | 72 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 23.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 1.4 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 1.01 | 3.67 | 3.43 | FLA | 88 | 93 | 126 | 20.9% | 6.4% | 20.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | -8.3 | 3.73 | 6.49 | 1.72 | 0.98 | 4.43 | 5.27 | ATL | 89 | 92 | 74 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 6.5% |
| Eric Stults | ATL | -3.6 | 4.29 | 5.82 | 1.12 | 0.98 | 4.28 | 3.94 | WAS | 77 | 123 | 52 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | -4 | 4.37 | 5.97 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 4.31 | 3.59 | BAL | 152 | 128 | 130 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 18.8% | 15.3% | 9.9% |
| James Shields | SDG | -18 | 3.69 | 6.66 | 1.24 | 0.84 | 3.59 | 3.13 | HOU | 119 | 91 | 119 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 21.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | -0.4 | 4.52 | 5.98 | 2.1 | 1.01 | 4.2 | 2.71 | NYM | 69 | 91 | 98 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 20.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | -2.4 | 3.82 | 5.86 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 3.52 | 3.32 | PIT | 80 | 83 | 87 | 21.9% | 4.9% | 20.2% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 0.5 | 4.89 | 5.74 | 1.87 | 1.02 | 2.82 | 2.7 | MIL | 39 | 72 | 84 | 24.3% | 7.2% | 20.2% | 12.0% | 4.9% |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 17.5 | 4.12 | 6.23 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 4.34 | 4.39 | CLE | 73 | 69 | 116 | 16.9% | 7.6% | 21.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.3 | 3.63 | 5.81 | 1.62 | 1.02 | 3.67 | 3.41 | CIN | 76 | 79 | 92 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 20.2% | 10.1% | 14.1% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -2.9 | 4.24 | 5.74 | 1.93 | 1.07 | 4.4 | 3.58 | TOR | 78 | 103 | 111 | 19.4% | 8.1% | 19.7% | 12.6% | 11.7% |
| John Lackey | STL | 8.6 | 3.61 | 6.47 | 1.32 | 0.98 | 3.13 | 2.87 | PHI | 68 | 56 | 68 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 21.6% | 6.9% | 12.5% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 11.3 | 4.28 | 5.24 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 3.54 | 4.51 | NYY | 100 | 96 | 114 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 10.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -14.7 | 4.16 | 5.1 | 1.26 | 1.08 | 4.04 | 4.91 | TEX | 81 | 60 | 75 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 22.3% | 5.3% | 11.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | -7.3 | 3.76 | 5.92 | 1.56 | 0.89 | 3.75 | 3.81 | LOS | 163 | 138 | 105 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 21.2% | 14.8% | 8.0% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 2.5 | 4.34 | 5.72 | 0.88 | 1.05 | 4.72 | 6.59 | DET | 130 | 112 | 81 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 21.8% | 11.3% | 8.6% |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 5.8 | 4.26 | 6. | 1.52 | 1.09 | 4.09 | 5.92 | ARI | 65 | 88 | 47 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 18.1% | 7.5% | 11.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 11.4 | 3.97 | 5.68 | 1.22 | 1.04 | 4.46 | 4.58 | CHW | 86 | 93 | 76 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 19.7% | 13.1% | 11.8% |
| Vance Worley | PIT | -3.5 | 4.02 | 6. | 1.56 | 1.05 | 3.75 | 4.05 | CHC | 80 | 95 | 106 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 19.8% | 8.0% | 12.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | -0.6 | 3.77 | 5.87 | 1.78 | 1.08 | 3.56 | 2.8 | SEA | 80 | 94 | 79 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 20.6% | 14.6% | 5.1% |
Aaron Sanchez has to be at the end of his rope. He somehow magically escaped a seven walk performance with just two runs allowed in his last start, but when that’s considered your “good” start, you’re probably in trouble. The good news? The Blue Jays need a closer. Despite Boston being mired in mediocrity offensively, they’ve hit for some power and do not often strike out.
Adam Warren has struggled and faces a hot Tampa Bay offense.
Brett Anderson hasn’t seen the results he was looking for yet, but hasn’t been bad in his three starts. He’s given the Dodgers mostly what was expected, ground balls, and should see a few more strikeouts going forward. He has a mediocre San Francisco matchup at home.
Cole Hamels has struggled with walks and HRs, though he didn’t allow one in his last start for the first time. The Cardinals only have 108 plate appearances vs LHP, but are one of two teams without a HR against them. The park should actually help Hamels tonight.
Collin McHugh continues to throw more sliders and just as many curveballs as fastballs. His results, in terms of strikeouts, have been mixed this year, but he’s been steadily missing bats similar to last year. The Padres have hit the ball well at home and have a 15.0 HR/FB over the last week. McHugh hasn’t allowed a HR yet this season (just 12 fly balls).
Corey Kluber got clobbered in his last start and it definitely wasn’t pretty, but it was a mid-week day game and those things can always be a bit nutty, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He still had a solid 6.0 K/BB ratio. Kansas City still has one of the top offenses this season, but has been cooling down. They still don’t strikeout. They still don’t walk. They still don’t hit HRs.
David Price probably gets a pass on the last one too because it was freezing (and snowing) and also because he’s David Price with a long enough history of being David Price. The Twins have been bad offensively all around this season, struggling especially vs LHP, though they do have a 24.3 LD% against them. They have just a 2.1 HR/FB over the last week. Price has one of the better defenses so far behind him?
Dillon Gee has been better than the results according to his ERA estimators and only the Astros have struck out more vs RHP (23.5%) at rate which is consistent with their strikeout rate at home and over the last week. Gee’s biggest issue has been the HR ball, but he should be able to keep it inside this giant park where the Marlins have a 5.3 HR/FB so far.
Doug Fister got hammered in his last start and not the good kind, although he keeps pitching like that and he might take to drinking more. I don’t enjoy seeing people fail, but it does validate some of what I’ve been expecting. We’re going to discuss more oddities in his plate discipline numbers below today, which may have a positive effect on his BABIP and is not baked into his ERA estimators. The Braves have been what we thought they’d be offensively over the last week, but just don’t expect K’s from either side today (see K/BB chart below).
Eric Stults faces a team that has excelled vs LHP early, but been cold over the last week.
Hector Noesi has done some extreme things in his two starts, but the one where he walked six batters was actually the start where he had better traditional results. The Orioles are not a team a RHP wants to face in their home park. They own an 18.0 HR/FB at home and 18.8 HR/FB vs RHP.
James Shields has decided that he needs to miss bats with the most atrocious defense in the game so far behind him. It’s not like we didn’t expect that. Luckily for him, he faces the team with the highest strikeout rate vs RHP, though they’ve actually cut down on their strikeouts over the last week to just a league average rate.
Jarred Cosart was smacked around by the Mets a couple of weeks ago, but has a 9.0 K/BB over his last two starts and the Mets haven’t hit much in their nine road games.
Jason Hammel has been hit rather hard, but there are some positives in the peripherals behind his performance. An adjustment may be necessary, but the estimators bode well, or at least better, for him. The Pirates have struck out in 25.7% of their road plate appearances and have downright refused free passes this season.
Jason Marquis has gotten bludgeoned, as one would expect in 2015, but not so fast? We’ll explore, not because we want to, but because we’re obligated to. The Brewers continue to not hit, with a couple of their top bats on the shelf, and they continue to strike out a lot (23.1% vs RHP and 26.0% over the last week).
Jason Vargas has his uses, mostly in great big pitcher’s parks that it’s hard to hit the ball out of. Cleveland qualifies as such a park for RHBs and they continue to be the pits vs LHP.
Jimmy Nelson has become an early season favorite around these parts and was good again in his last start. He goes from one hitter’s park to another and faces a very solvable lineup, but will have to keep the ball on the ground against this crew. They pop up a lot, but have also left the yard a lot this year (see Batted Ball Chart below).
Joe Kelly was roughed up for the first time in 2015 his last time out. He’s continued to sacrifice a high ground ball rate for strikeouts (more sliders and four-seam fastballs, less of everything else). Toronto is a tough team with a lot of power, but less so on the road. Most people don’t realize that Fenway has a below average HR factor, especially for LHBs.
John Lackey didn’t have the greatest results last time out, but surprisingly the HR ball wasn’t the problem. It shouldn’t be a problem at home either, and look who’s coming to dinner. It’s our favorite team to pick on in 2015. The Phillies are an atrocious bunch all around, but particularly against RHP, where they are the absolute worst, though they haven’t struck out a ton and only 15.2% over the last week.
Nate Karns has a 5.83 ERA and just a .182 BABIP. HRs have been his issue. He’s allowed four in his last two starts and those were in the Trop. Now he goes to Yankee Stadium to face a team he allowed two of those HRs to.
Taijuan Walker had his best start of the season last time out, but still had issues finding the plate (four walks). Texas has the second worst offense against RHP. They haven’t had a lot of power overall, but haven’t struck out much either.
Tim Lincecum stranded seven of eight Dodgers in his last start and has kept the ball in the park for the most part in three starts. This is his first start in a non-extreme pitcher’s park. Let’s talk HR/FB stats here: Lincecum on the road since that start of last year, the Dodgers at home and vs RHP this year, and the Dodgers over the last week specifically. All of these marks are over 15%. I’d be stunned if the Dodgers did not homer at least once and probably multiple times tonight. They are both the top offense at home and vs RHP so far.
Tommy Milone is probably not the pitcher you’re looking for today. Actually, that depends what you’re looking for, but he’s probably not the pitcher you’re looking to put in your daily fantasy lineup.
Tyler Matzek may be one of only a few pitchers that can walk into Arizona and say, “Ah, a pitcher’s park”. He somehow survived six walks in his last start to allow just two runs. The Diamondbacks seem to treat their home as a pitcher’s park as well, as only two teams are worse offensively at home. They are the worst offense over the last week though.
Ubaldo Jimenez allowed runs for the first time in his last start. That will be the norm from now on. The White Sox aren’t the worst matchup for him, but most matchups will be tough in Baltimore. Chicago has struck out in 26.5% of plate appearances over the last week.
Vance Worley matches up with his peripherals? Wait, what the… oh, ok, not really on a per start basis, but just overall after you mesh them all together. The Cubs offer a somewhat neutral matchup, but have struck out a lot (see K/BB chart).
Yovani Gallardo was all fly balls and strikeouts in his first two starts, but then was ground balls and contact in his third. In his fourth, the results weren’t good (three ERs in five IP), but it was the best combination of both worlds otherwise: ground balls and strikeouts. This is probably the Gallardo you want to see. They Mariners had been hot at home, but cooled off over the weekend and don’t offer an imposing matchup on the road, but do have an 18.0 HR/FB over 232 road plate appearances.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 19.5% | 11.4% | Road | 13.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 21.7% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 20.4% | 8.8% | Home | 22.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 13.6% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.6% | 6.9% | Home | 9.7% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 2.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 7.9% | Home | 21.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 2.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 23.4% | 6.5% | Road | 24.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 13.5% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 22.7% | 6.1% | Road | 23.6% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 3.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 26.1% | 5.4% | Home | 27.9% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 3.3% |
| David Price | Tigers | 24.3% | 3.8% | Road | 27.2% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Dillon Gee | Mets | 16.8% | 6.1% | Road | 18.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.9% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 16.4% | 4.6% | Road | 11.1% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.7% |
| Eric Stults | Braves | 14.8% | 5.4% | Home | 13.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.7% |
| Hector Noesi | White Sox | 17.0% | 8.3% | Road | 15.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 4.6% |
| James Shields | Padres | 20.0% | 6.1% | Home | 18.3% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 10.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 14.6% | 10.4% | Home | 13.1% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 2.3% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 19.8% | 6.6% | Home | 21.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 2.0% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 16.1% | 13.0% | Home | 28.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 6.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | 16.8% | 5.7% | Road | 16.1% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 4.4% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.7% | 6.7% | Road | 19.7% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 4.4% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.0% | 9.2% | Home | 15.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 19.8% | 5.4% | Home | 23.1% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 3.6% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 20.9% | 11.4% | Road | 26.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 13.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 20.8% | 11.1% | Road | 20.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 17.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 21.4% | 8.9% | Road | 19.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.9% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 16.5% | 6.9% | Home | 15.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 7.6% | 13.2% |
| Tyler Matzek | Rockies | 17.8% | 9.5% | Road | 19.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 15.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.6% | 11.6% | Home | 20.3% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 16.2% |
| Vance Worley | Pirates | 15.6% | 5.7% | Road | 15.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 11.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 19.0% | 7.5% | Home | 20.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 17.1% | 10.9% | RH | 15.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 15.4% | 9.8% |
| Rays | Road | 19.5% | 10.8% | RH | 20.6% | 11.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.7% |
| Giants | Road | 18.6% | 8.6% | LH | 21.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.0% | 4.5% | RH | 17.7% | 5.6% | L7Days | 16.2% | 7.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 14.3% | 6.7% | LH | 23.1% | 13.9% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.2% |
| Padres | Home | 20.5% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.7% |
| Royals | Road | 17.6% | 5.1% | RH | 14.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 15.8% | 6.6% |
| Twins | Home | 20.6% | 6.4% | LH | 18.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 23.2% | 7.1% | RH | 23.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.9% |
| Braves | Home | 19.1% | 6.7% | RH | 17.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.6% | 8.0% | LH | 19.8% | 15.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.9% | 7.3% | RH | 23.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.2% |
| Astros | Road | 19.9% | 8.8% | RH | 23.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.0% | 6.1% | RH | 18.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 25.7% | 5.8% | RH | 21.9% | 5.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 4.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.4% | 4.2% | RH | 23.1% | 5.9% | L7Days | 26.0% | 5.7% |
| Indians | Home | 23.7% | 8.6% | LH | 20.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 14.0% | 8.7% |
| Reds | Home | 26.5% | 9.0% | RH | 20.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.1% | 6.3% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.9% | 6.6% | RH | 20.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 15.2% | 6.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.7% | 8.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.4% | 9.0% | RH | 18.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 15.0% | 12.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.4% | 11.2% | RH | 19.0% | 10.3% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.1% | 10.0% | LH | 23.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.3% | 8.4% | LH | 18.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.7% | 7.4% | RH | 21.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.2% | 9.8% | RH | 22.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 23.3% | 6.5% | RH | 21.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 16.8% | 14.8% | 7.4% | Road | 20.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 22.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | Home | 21.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 18.2% | 27.3% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 18.0% | 9.3% | 7.4% | Home | 17.8% | 9.5% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 23.3% | 12.5% | 10.3% | Home | 21.6% | 12.9% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 21.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | Road | 19.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 24.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | Road | 22.8% | 6.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 23.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | Home | 20.2% | 10.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Tigers | 21.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | Road | 20.6% | 9.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Dillon Gee | Mets | 19.0% | 10.8% | 7.9% | Road | 21.0% | 13.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 19.4% | 9.7% | 6.2% | Road | 16.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Eric Stults | Braves | 21.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | Home | 24.6% | 11.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Hector Noesi | White Sox | 22.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% | Road | 21.2% | 10.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | Home | 24.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 19.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | Home | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | Home | 20.9% | 11.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 22.5% | 17.8% | 6.7% | Home | 6.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | 21.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | Road | 24.1% | 8.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.2% | 6.7% | 10.1% | Road | 19.5% | 7.4% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 20.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | Home | 23.3% | 8.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.0% | 12.2% | 12.2% | Home | 24.0% | 6.1% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 17.6% | 24.5% | 9.4% | Road | 9.1% | 0.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 19.0% | 4.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 26.2% | 4.9% | 11.5% | Road | 28.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 22.6% | 12.6% | 6.6% | Road | 21.8% | 15.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 20.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | Home | 19.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Tyler Matzek | Rockies | 19.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | Road | 20.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | Home | 21.3% | 11.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Vance Worley | Pirates | 20.7% | 11.3% | 6.9% | Road | 20.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 21.0% | 12.7% | 5.1% | Home | 21.0% | 16.9% | 1.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 14.8% | 12.0% | 10.0% | RH | 16.2% | 10.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 12.7% | 11.4% |
| Rays | Road | 16.0% | 9.2% | 3.9% | RH | 17.8% | 9.6% | 13.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Giants | Road | 27.1% | 11.1% | 5.6% | LH | 21.7% | 9.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.4% | 5.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 22.8% | 12.2% | 8.1% | RH | 23.0% | 12.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.3% | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | LH | 21.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 14.9% | 2.1% |
| Padres | Home | 19.0% | 11.0% | 7.7% | RH | 17.5% | 12.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 15.0% | 8.3% |
| Royals | Road | 24.9% | 7.6% | 10.9% | RH | 22.3% | 7.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.3% | 10.5% |
| Twins | Home | 27.0% | 13.7% | 5.9% | LH | 24.3% | 5.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 2.1% | 8.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.6% | 5.3% | 12.3% | RH | 22.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.1% | 14.6% | 8.3% | RH | 20.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 4.8% | 9.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 18.9% | 10.4% | 7.8% | LH | 13.0% | 19.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 4.7% | 9.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 24.8% | 18.0% | 9.0% | RH | 22.1% | 18.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 22.8% | 11.9% | 7.5% |
| Astros | Road | 26.2% | 12.4% | 8.6% | RH | 22.3% | 11.7% | 10.9% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Mets | Road | 21.5% | 8.4% | 14.5% | RH | 22.7% | 6.0% | 13.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.0% | 8.3% | 4.2% | RH | 19.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% | RH | 20.3% | 6.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% |
| Indians | Home | 24.6% | 0.0% | 4.9% | LH | 19.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 13.1% | 9.8% |
| Reds | Home | 20.4% | 16.7% | 13.3% | RH | 19.0% | 13.8% | 15.4% | L7Days | 21.2% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 16.5% | 10.2% | 14.8% | RH | 17.2% | 14.7% | 14.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 15.8% | 17.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.9% | 6.6% | 9.8% | RH | 21.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.0% | 13.9% | 9.9% | RH | 19.3% | 14.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 12.7% | 11.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.3% | 7.3% | 12.7% | RH | 15.5% | 4.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 15.1% | 5.5% | 12.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 26.6% | 16.5% | 12.7% | RH | 22.2% | 17.1% | 12.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 15.6% | 6.7% | LH | 23.3% | 11.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 4.2% | 6.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 19.3% | 6.6% | 10.5% | LH | 13.4% | 10.5% | 21.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 3.1% | 12.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 9.8% | 16.4% | RH | 22.8% | 9.6% | 12.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 18.8% | 10.3% | 17.6% | RH | 18.9% | 10.8% | 16.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.1% | 14.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.4% | 18.0% | 9.8% | RH | 20.7% | 10.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2014 LG AVG – 20.3 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.18 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 14.1% | 4.7% | 3.00 | 14.1% | 4.7% | 3.00 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 9.1% | 8.2% | 1.11 | 9.1% | 8.2% | 1.11 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 12.1% | 7.1% | 1.70 | 12.1% | 7.1% | 1.70 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.74 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.74 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 23.0% | 11.6% | 1.98 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 1.98 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 24.0% | 11.3% | 2.12 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 2.12 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.9% | 14.5% | 1.92 | 27.9% | 14.5% | 1.92 |
| David Price | DET | 21.0% | 8.5% | 2.47 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 2.47 |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 16.4% | 9.1% | 1.80 | 16.4% | 9.1% | 1.80 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 9.8% | 5.6% | 1.75 | 9.8% | 5.6% | 1.75 |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 15.6% | 5.8% | 2.69 | 15.6% | 5.8% | 2.69 |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | 23.4% | 13.9% | 1.68 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 1.68 |
| James Shields | SDG | 27.9% | 14.5% | 1.92 | 27.9% | 14.5% | 1.92 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 14.9% | 8.0% | 1.86 | 14.9% | 8.0% | 1.86 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 21.6% | 7.3% | 2.96 | 21.6% | 7.3% | 2.96 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 29.6% | 12.1% | 2.45 | 29.6% | 12.1% | 2.45 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 11.6% | 7.8% | 1.49 | 11.6% | 7.8% | 1.49 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 25.0% | 12.2% | 2.05 | 25.0% | 12.2% | 2.05 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 25.0% | 9.9% | 2.53 | 25.0% | 9.9% | 2.53 |
| John Lackey | STL | 16.7% | 11.5% | 1.45 | 16.7% | 11.5% | 1.45 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 19.8% | 6.8% | 2.91 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 2.91 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 20.0% | 10.0% | 2.00 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 2.00 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 13.9% | 6.8% | 2.04 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 2.04 |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 15.2% | 7.3% | 2.08 | 15.2% | 7.3% | 2.08 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 26.7% | 6.2% | 4.31 | 26.7% | 6.2% | 4.31 |
| Vance Worley | PIT | 18.8% | 5.9% | 3.19 | 18.8% | 5.9% | 3.19 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.51 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.51 |
Aaron Sanchez – While I understand his low strikeout rate despite throwing gas as perhaps a factor of his inability to throw three strikes before four balls, his consistently low SwStr% in each of his three starts is even more disturbing.
Adam Warren doesn’t have an exceptional SwStr% and was got five of them (100 pitches) in his last start, but he’s getting the short end on the K rate. He’s been above average in both categories almost entirely out of the pen in the past and should see a small drop as a starter, but I’d still expect his strikeout rate to climb to respectability should his SwStr% stabilize around 8%.
Brett Anderson – The SwStr rate is right around his career rate, but lower than his last three abbreviated seasons (123 innings combined). I’d expect his strikeout rate to become more respectable.
Chase Anderson had a 9.6 SwStr% last year when he had a 21.6 K%, so there’s a little hope there that he’ll raise the one rather than losing the other. Even so, he’s not that far out of our comfort range that there’s much to talk about either way.
Corey Kluber has the top SwStr% in the majors and it has been at least 12.8% in every start.
Hector Noesi had a 17.1 SwStr% in his first start, but did have a more than respectable 10.1% follow up. Those were his only two starts though.
James Shields is tied with Kluber for the top SwStr% in the majors (qualified starters) and has the exact same K% too, not something you would have expected. He’s been consistently in double digits in each start. I tried to consult BrooksBaseball to look into his individual pitch usage and results, but couldn’t get his card to load. Maybe it’ll be working correctly next time if this continues.
Jason Hammel has seen his SwStr% held down by a 4.4% mark in his second start, so the discrepancy doesn’t seem too alarming yet.
Jason Marquis has never had even a league average SwStr% or anything close to it any full major league season, but has a low of 9.6% in his three starts.
Jason Vargas is not a big strikeout guy, but he’s a bigger strikeout guy.
Jimmy Nelson has had an above league average SwStr% in all three starts.
John Lackey followed up a 17.1 SwStr% with a 7.1 SwStr%. There’s always a lot of game to game variance in this rate, but he’s now been above 14% in five of his last 10 starts. The bad news is his other five starts were below 10%, though not really awful. Regardless, he should be striking out more batters.
Nate Karns – His SwStr has been consistently between 5.7% and 7.6% in each of his four starts and he saw some adjustment in striking out only three of 29 Red Sox faced in his last start.
Ubaldo Jimenez has gotten just six swings and misses over his last 161 pitches. Please do not buy into his K%.
Vance Worley – You know what? Sure. You can have this. Have fun. (Newer readers may not understand why I’ve given up on Worley, but just stop looking and accept it and you’ll be happier for it.)
ERA Estimators Chart (2014 LG AVG – 3.80 ERA – 3.72 SIERA – 3.80 xFIP – 3.80 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 5.14 | 6 | 0.86 | 5.37 | 0.23 | 7.1 | 1.96 | 5.14 | 6 | 0.86 | 5.37 | 0.23 | 7.1 | 1.96 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 5.4 | 5.64 | 0.24 | 5.26 | -0.14 | 5.56 | 0.16 | 5.4 | 5.64 | 0.24 | 5.26 | -0.14 | 5.56 | 0.16 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4.8 | 3.58 | -1.22 | 3.53 | -1.27 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 4.8 | 3.58 | -1.22 | 3.53 | -1.27 | 4.1 | -0.7 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 3 | 3.26 | 0.26 | 3.26 | 0.26 | 2.64 | -0.36 | 3 | 3.26 | 0.26 | 3.26 | 0.26 | 2.64 | -0.36 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 3.75 | 3.92 | 0.17 | 3.79 | 0.04 | 6.4 | 2.65 | 3.75 | 3.92 | 0.17 | 3.79 | 0.04 | 6.4 | 2.65 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 2.41 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 2.61 | 0.2 | 1.74 | -0.67 | 2.41 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 2.61 | 0.2 | 1.74 | -0.67 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.9 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 2.36 | -1.54 | 2.38 | -1.52 | 3.9 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 2.36 | -1.54 | 2.38 | -1.52 |
| David Price | DET | 3.28 | 3.86 | 0.58 | 3.97 | 0.69 | 2.87 | -0.41 | 3.28 | 3.86 | 0.58 | 3.97 | 0.69 | 2.87 | -0.41 |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 5.6 | 3.31 | -2.29 | 3.25 | -2.35 | 4.39 | -1.21 | 5.6 | 3.31 | -2.29 | 3.25 | -2.35 | 4.39 | -1.21 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 2.37 | 5.24 | 2.87 | 4.85 | 2.48 | 4.66 | 2.29 | 2.37 | 5.24 | 2.87 | 4.85 | 2.48 | 4.66 | 2.29 |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 4.5 | 4.04 | -0.46 | 3.85 | -0.65 | 4.78 | 0.28 | 4.5 | 4.04 | -0.46 | 3.85 | -0.65 | 4.78 | 0.28 |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | 5.23 | 4.62 | -0.61 | 5.17 | -0.06 | 5.74 | 0.51 | 5.23 | 4.62 | -0.61 | 5.17 | -0.06 | 5.74 | 0.51 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.24 | 2.97 | -0.27 | 3.15 | -0.09 | 3.47 | 0.23 | 3.24 | 2.97 | -0.27 | 3.15 | -0.09 | 3.47 | 0.23 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 3.63 | 3.73 | 0.1 | 3.65 | 0.02 | 4.07 | 0.44 | 3.63 | 3.73 | 0.1 | 3.65 | 0.02 | 4.07 | 0.44 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 5.19 | 3.11 | -2.08 | 3.23 | -1.96 | 3.78 | -1.41 | 5.19 | 3.11 | -2.08 | 3.23 | -1.96 | 3.78 | -1.41 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 7.2 | 2.76 | -4.44 | 2.86 | -4.34 | 4.03 | -3.17 | 7.2 | 2.76 | -4.44 | 2.86 | -4.34 | 4.03 | -3.17 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 6.75 | 4.39 | -2.36 | 4.29 | -2.46 | 4.33 | -2.42 | 6.75 | 4.39 | -2.36 | 4.29 | -2.46 | 4.33 | -2.42 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 1.35 | 2.78 | 1.43 | 3.04 | 1.69 | 2.23 | 0.88 | 1.35 | 2.78 | 1.43 | 3.04 | 1.69 | 2.23 | 0.88 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 4.08 | 3.25 | -0.83 | 3.46 | -0.62 | 3.48 | -0.6 | 4.08 | 3.25 | -0.83 | 3.46 | -0.62 | 3.48 | -0.6 |
| John Lackey | STL | 4.34 | 3.9 | -0.44 | 3.72 | -0.62 | 3.67 | -0.67 | 4.34 | 3.9 | -0.44 | 3.72 | -0.62 | 3.67 | -0.67 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 5.32 | 4.72 | -0.6 | 4.84 | -0.48 | 6.11 | 0.79 | 5.32 | 4.72 | -0.6 | 4.84 | -0.48 | 6.11 | 0.79 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 10.66 | 4.85 | -5.81 | 5.46 | -5.2 | 4.69 | -5.97 | 10.66 | 4.85 | -5.81 | 5.46 | -5.2 | 4.69 | -5.97 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 2 | 3.76 | 1.76 | 3.61 | 1.61 | 3.36 | 1.36 | 2 | 3.76 | 1.76 | 3.61 | 1.61 | 3.36 | 1.36 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.38 | 5.31 | 1.93 | 5.17 | 1.79 | 5.39 | 2.01 | 3.38 | 5.31 | 1.93 | 5.17 | 1.79 | 5.39 | 2.01 |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 2.4 | 5.61 | 3.21 | 6 | 3.6 | 5.16 | 2.76 | 2.4 | 5.61 | 3.21 | 6 | 3.6 | 5.16 | 2.76 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 2.3 | 3.14 | 0.84 | 3.12 | 0.82 | 4.18 | 1.88 | 2.3 | 3.14 | 0.84 | 3.12 | 0.82 | 4.18 | 1.88 |
| Vance Worley | PIT | 4 | 4.25 | 0.25 | 4.11 | 0.11 | 3.42 | -0.58 | 4 | 4.25 | 0.25 | 4.11 | 0.11 | 3.42 | -0.58 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.92 | 3.14 | -0.78 | 3.02 | -0.9 | 3.61 | -0.31 | 3.92 | 3.14 | -0.78 | 3.02 | -0.9 | 3.61 | -0.31 |
Brett Anderson – The HR rate is a little elevated, but a 15.4 HR/FB just means two HRs at this point, when he’s only allowed 13 fly balls.
Cole Hamels – His BABIP and LOB (93.8%) are undercut by his 33.3 HR/FB to actually bring his ERA in line with his estimators. He has what they figure he deserves, but he’s just gone about it in a way nobody would figure.
Corey Kluber – The BABIP is a bit high (.333), but not far from his career mark and his defense is atrocious so I’m not sure we’d expect that to improve. His 68.5 LOB% is a bit low, but not too bad and his 23.4 K-BB% is right where it was last year among the league leaders.
Dillon Gee – Despite the better results and not even allowing a HR in his last start, his HR/FB still sits at 21.4% and his LOB% is still feeling the effects of stranding less than half his runners in his first start.
Doug Fister – As stated earlier, we saw some adjustment in his last start, but he’s still sitting on a .231 BABIP with an 80.2 LOB% and mere 1.2 K-BB%. The higher walk rate is the surprising thing, but the guy has to miss some bats to be effective and he strangely is with an 83.8 Z-Contact%. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen that combination, but sure enough his O-Contact (contact out of the strike zone) is 92.3%, which leads the league by a large margin. That usually means weaker contact, so it’s a huge outlier to monitor in terms of his BABIP, but something he’s never done before.
Jason Hammel – We’re looking at an elevated BABIP (.340) and 63.8 LOB%. It’s still so early that an elevated HR/FB means the difference of a fly ball or two, but he’s a fly ball pitcher and has allowed a HR in each game. He owns an 11.1% career mark that’s a bit higher than normal, but he’s pitched for teams in some bad parks. He does have 22 fly balls without a pop-up and a Z-Contact (91.9%) that are both unhelpful to his BABIP.
Jason Marquis – What do we make of this? He’s getting hit hard (3 HRs – 23.3 LD%) and he really doesn’t have many useful ligaments left in his arm so that might continue, but he’s also rocking a 22.5 K-BB%, which is something he’s never done before. One the one hand, none of his 16 fly balls have been pop-ups, but his 81.3 Z-Contact% is among the league leaders and its pretty tough for even a bad pitcher to sustain a .439 BABIP.
Jason Vargas has stranded just 60.3% of his runners and batted have hit .375 on balls in play against him. He’s allowing his normal league average percentage of line drives, but his current 47.4 GB% would be a career high by a large margin and he’s had more grounders than flys in every start. He’s also had a league average Z-Contact rate throughout his career so the sudden spike may be a disturbing trend to watch and have an effect on his BABIP. That said, it’s still likely to improve.
Jimmy Nelson – Even at his estimators, he’s been better than anybody expected, but the .222 BABIP has been a help. We talked about him not allowing a HR because everything was on the ground prior, but he did allow eight fly balls in his last start, so now with 12 on the year, he’s on the side of good fortune without a HR, though the 15.6 LD% tells you that he’s still not being squared up often. That’s backed up by his 82.4 Z-Contact. That’s not .222 BABIP stuff, especially with the volatility in line drive rates, but that’s still pretty damn good.
Taijuan Walker has only allowed a single HR, which may have something to do with the park he pitches in, but has combined that with a 54.1% strand rate that will improve and a .439 BABIP. His 28.6 LD% nearly matches his 31.0% GB rate. He does have a strong 82.4 Z-Contact% though. Mostly, he needs to get his walks way down and get ahead of more batters and better results should follow. Who knows when that will happen though.
Tim Lincecum has a 10.0 K-BB%. He had a 10.6 K-BB% last year. In fact, it’s the worst mark of his career. What has he done differently? His strand rate has jumped more than 10%. Over the last three years, his bad years, he hasn’t had a mark above 70%. In the four seasons prior, it had been above 75% each year. You can say similar things about how his HR/FB ran. This year, in two starts at home and one in San Diego, he’s allowed just a single one of his 13 fly balls to leave the park, but he also has a massive 60.4 GB% this year. He’s never been above 50% previously.
Tommy Milone has had better results than peripherals, mostly due to the sub 200 BABIP and 85.1 LOB%. He’ll get his pop-ups, but does not otherwise excel in any area and will see some adjustments coming. His 2.5 K-BB% is uninspiring.
Tyler Matzek has allowed 19 fly balls and just one HR. Two of his three starts have been in Colorado. He has stranded 89.4% of his runners.
Ubaldo Jimenez – If you’re like me and don’t buy into the K%, then that would make the estimators even higher. What he has done is keep the ball on the ground though, so his two HRs actually make up a 28.6 HR/FB (seven fly balls). Twenty-four of his 35 batted balls have been on the ground and that leaves just four line drives. To that end, he’s earned some BABIP love, but we’ll talk about line drive rates and expectations a bit more below with Nate Karns and that applies here too. Even if every ball was a ground ball, without a line drive, we’d expect to him to have a BABIP about 100 points higher.
BABIP Chart (2014 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.291 | 0.275 | -0.016 | 9.1% | 95.7% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.294 | 0.280 | -0.014 | 18.8% | 86.3% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.297 | 0.333 | 0.036 | 7.7% | 95.4% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.299 | 0.300 | 0.001 | 16.7% | 82.8% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 0.285 | 0.172 | -0.113 | 19.0% | 86.7% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.257 | 0.340 | 0.083 | 8.3% | 85.2% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.345 | 0.333 | -0.012 | 0.0% | 85.8% |
| David Price | DET | 0.265 | 0.301 | 0.036 | 10.0% | 87.7% |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 0.274 | 0.327 | 0.053 | 7.1% | 86.3% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 0.322 | 0.231 | -0.091 | 0.0% | 83.8% |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 0.265 | 0.271 | 0.006 | 11.1% | 92.7% |
| Hector Noesi | CHW | 0.303 | 0.231 | -0.072 | 40.0% | 72.9% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.283 | 0.274 | -0.009 | 17.4% | 76.8% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 0.270 | 0.235 | -0.035 | 14.3% | 90.9% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.301 | 0.340 | 0.039 | 0.0% | 91.9% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 0.270 | 0.439 | 0.169 | 0.0% | 81.3% |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.257 | 0.375 | 0.118 | 15.8% | 93.5% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.304 | 0.222 | -0.082 | 16.7% | 82.4% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.302 | 0.239 | -0.063 | 10.5% | 90.1% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.265 | 0.254 | -0.011 | 15.0% | 92.6% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.245 | 0.183 | -0.062 | 3.8% | 88.7% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.308 | 0.439 | 0.131 | 5.9% | 82.4% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0.304 | 0.292 | -0.012 | 0.0% | 85.3% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 0.275 | 0.196 | -0.079 | 11.5% | 92.6% |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 0.311 | 0.286 | -0.025 | 5.3% | 87.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.264 | 0.147 | -0.117 | 14.3% | 89.3% |
| Vance Worley | PIT | 0.295 | 0.321 | 0.026 | 10.5% | 91.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.322 | 0.365 | 0.043 | 0.0% | 86.1% |
NOTE – As mentioned Friday, if we talk about the BABIP above, in the ERA chart, it won’t be repeated down here.
Cole Hamels – Things stabilized a little in his last start, but consider that he allowed four line drives (half his season’s total) yet still has a 13.2 LD%. Three of his four IFFBs came in his first start.
Collin McHugh – Six of the 12 Oakland batters who put the ball in play reached safely with a hit in his second start, otherwise his BABIP has been normal in his other starts.
Hector Noesi has more IFFBs (6) than LDs (4). That’s impressive, but maybe even more so is his 72.9 Z-Contact%. Nobody really earns a .231 BABIP, but this process is about as close as one would ever come. They’re not marks he can sustain, but it is something he’s done in two starts.
Jared Cosart can thank a 13.5 LD% in part for his low BABIP. It happened, so good on him, but it won’t continue to happen.
Nate Karns has done an exceptional job allowing just seven line drives (10.9%), but neither that, nor his sub 200 BABIP are sustainable going forward. Just to illustrate, the lowest LD% by a qualified pitcher in any season in the Pitch F/X era (since 2002) is 13.3% and there have been only 12 player seasons below 15%. That’s about one per year, are you betting on him to be your guy? Alex Cobb led the league last year at 16.4%.
Yovani Gallardo hasn’t induced a pop up yet, but has an otherwise standard batted ball profile (for him) and really doesn’t get any help from the Texas defense. Both BABIPs, his and the team’s, should improve some.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Brett Anderson doesn’t offer much upside, but should be a bit better and there’s some value in ground balls at a very low price. The Giants have been hot offensively, but are coming off a weekend in Colorado.
Chase Anderson – The Rockies haven’t been a terrible road offense this year, or even bad really, and Arizona is probably the second best hitter’s park in the National League, but I feel like Chase Anderson is an under-valued pitcher. He had LD and HR issues last season, but those have been under control through three starts this season. He misses enough bats to be relevant to daily fantasy players at his currently low price tag across the sites.
Cole Hamels – I like him to keep the ball in the park in St Louis, but not much else for his cost. If he continues to struggle to find the plate, the Cardinals could make him pay and we know his BABIP is a fluke.
Collin McHugh – I’m buying on Mr. Sliders and Curveballs in San Diego. Yes, the Padres are better, but I’m betting on strikeouts and a big park to allow him to roll up some fantasy points at a high, but not exorbitant price.
Corey Kluber – If you’re playing the early games, then I expect a bounce back, but remember that the Royals are daily fantasy hell on a pitcher’s strikeout rate.
David Price is your top priced pitcher tonight and I expect a bounce back, but it’s not like Minnesota is Caribbean resort in April. He could face similar issues with temperature, but Twins haven’t done much to scare you with the bats. Price may be a contrarian option today with some players still feeling the sting of his last outing.
Dillon Gee is probably going to be more of a mediocre pitcher than the good one his peripherals paint him as when all is said and done (I lean closer to his current FIP). It’s his price tag that makes him rosterable today against a mediocre Miami offense in a big park. You don’t need all that much to pull some value out of him today.
James Shields – I’m a bit borderline on him today because you’d probably be right to expect some strikeouts, but not for the reasons you’d expect coming into the season. His strikeouts are up and Houston’s are down. That’s not where I’d probably expect either to end up at the end of the season, but crazier thing have happened in this game. He’s probably good enough for some strikeouts and fantasy points today.
Jarred Cosart is probably good enough to make it through a quality start, while keeping the ball in the park, at a low price at home, just not much more.
Jason Hammel is a mid-priced pitcher today and may provide some nice value. This is more of a GPP play with some risk, considering he has had some contact issues, but the Pittsburgh offense (lots of strikeouts, few walks) has not been up to snuff so far. This would be just as much of a bet against them than a bet on him.
Jason Marquis serves many purposes today. First, he’s a rock bottom price who allows you to add a lot of offense. Second, he’s missing a ton of bats and has struck out over a quarter of the batters he’s faced in each start. Third, he’s facing one of the worst offenses in the league this year. Sadly, he’s one of the few pitchers they’ve been able to hit this year. However, even if he copies his results against them from his last start and allowed nine hits and five runs with eight strikeouts, you’d take it at this price.
Jimmy Nelson – I still like our early favorite against one of the weaker offenses in the league, but his price tag is starting to climb on some sites. The park has been a boon for HRs, but not offense overall. He should still offer enough ground balls and strikeouts to be worthwhile.
John Lackey – Me, you, and the rest of the daily fantasy world probably loves them some John Lackey against the Phillies today. He’s not that expensive today and is in a great park for limiting his biggest problem…..HRs. He’s in contention for top expected performer of the night regardless of price.
Yovani Gallardo – I’ve been on him, almost alone, a couple of times this year and, again, I think he could be a sneaky play here. Most DFS players aren’t going to see upside here and will be scared off by the middle of Seattle’s order in hitter’s park. If Gallardo can combine some strikeouts with ground balls, which he showed a glimpse of in his last start, he could offer some hidden upside at a mediocre price.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.