Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, June 8th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-06-11 14:37:35

Today should be rather easy. One stud pitcher in a great spot (for daily fantasy purposes at least) stands out far and above the rest, but because we can’t write two word articles and a lot of sites require a second pitcher and also because some of you may just want to be different, we’ll go through it all today. As always, be sure to check weather, lineups, and umpires which can affect everything in ways unforeseen at the time of this writing.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

A.J. Burnett has been experiencing some of the regression his early season numbers have been calling for over his last two starts, but just as he wasn’t as good his ERA said then, he’s not as bad as the eight runs over 10.2 IP over his last two outings would seem either. A concerning thing might be his 33.0 Hard%, which isn’t the worst of his career, but a number he has not approached since his Yankee days and a 36.8 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks. Milwaukee’s primary asset offensively is RH power when everyone is healthy, which it never seems they are. The 3 year RH HR park factor in Pittsburgh is 0.64, the lowest rate in baseball, or almost exactly half of Milwaukee’s RH HR park factor (1.26). The Brewers are the 2nd worst road offense and 3rd worst vs RHP, leaving Burnett with the top park adjusted matchup of the day.

Chris Sale is not really well served when describing his last five starts as merely dominant. Over the last month he has an absurd 37.6 K% and even more insane 18.3 SwStr%. He has pitched at least seven innings in all five starts and struck out at least 10 in four. The Astros haven’t struck out at the massive pace they did last year, but they still strike out a lot (23.3% on the road, 24.0% vs LHP, 27.8% over the last seven days) Nobody comes near his strikeout potential tonight. Expect the Astros to stack the lineup with RH batters and they may score a few runs and even knock a ball or two out of the park (14.1 HR/FB vs LHP). That shouldn’t matter against the number of Ks he puts up. Sale also has a very solid 3.0 Hard-Soft% this year.

Cole Hamels now has a string of six straight starts where he’s pitched at least seven innings and allowed two ERs or less. He’s struck out at least seven in six of those. Tonight, he trades one park which enhances RH power for another, although the overall run factors aren’t nearly as punishing in either. Hamels’ hard hit rate is almost exactly what it was last year and for his career, but it’s his softly hit rate that has jumped to give him an elite 0.9 Hard-Soft%. The Reds have a 14.4 HR/FB at home, but perhaps the more concerning thing is that Hamels has had issues with walks in the past and Cincinnati has a 9.7 BB% at home and 9.5 BB% vs LHP.

Ian Kennedy wouldn’t profile as a bad pitcher from looking at his ERA estimators in either the main chart or ERA one below. The issue is when you look at the actual ERA and 25.5 HR/FB and he didn’t even allow a HR in his last start. Atlanta’s lack of power may help him here, but hurt him in his most fantasy proficient asset, which is the ability to miss bats at a better than league average rate. They have just a 16.9 K% vs RHP.

Jason Vargas generally ends up with decent results at home due to a park and outfield defense suited to his style of pitching, but not so good on the road. However, he’s allowed exactly two ERs in each of his last four starts. One was surprisingly at Yankee Stadium and all of the other three were against Cleveland. Two of his previous three starts this year were against these Twins and they weren’t so good (9 ERs in 8.2 IP), but Minnesota is a park that plays similar to Kansas City (bad for power, but enhances overall offense). That would make this seem like an ok spot for Vargas and the Twins have been cold, but hit well enough at home to make this a somewhat neutral overall park adjusted matchup. Vargas’s 37.2 Hard% is the first time he’s been above 30% in his career and has been at least 33.3% in every start.

Jimmy Nelson is a pitcher we’ve been with and avoided several times each this year depending on matchup and his own inconsistencies. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in a strong SwStr% that may even suggest a better K%, but whether he’s going to walk the park or keep the ball on the ground or not on any given day might be best predicted by flipping a coin. Pittsburgh could be a decent matchup for his tendencies as his fly balls should stay in the yard and they don’t walk all that much. In fact, his first two starts of the season were against the Pirates and he struck out 12 of 42 batters with just two walks and 18 ground balls.

Lance McCullers has had success at the big league level that can’t be denied, though you could quibble with the sustainability of certain aspects of that success. He came into his last game with a total of 15 innings over three starts and then went the full nine with 11 strikeouts against Baltimore. Tonight, he gets a rematch with a team he seemingly pitched well against, but didn’t finish five innings in his previous start. The White Sox have the worst home offense in baseball and have been cold overall. They have just a 6.3 team Hard-Soft%. The park enhances offense, but not to the point where McCullers still isn’t in one of the better spots tonight.

Marco Estrada is a guy that you’ll keep coming back to at the right price, even in tough situations, due to his ability to miss bats at a better than league average rate. In fact, he’s actually pitched decently overall for Toronto and has just a league average HR rate with a 2.9 Hard-Soft% that is, by far, the best of his career. Toronto can be a tough park, but the Marlins are the 2nd worst offense vs RHP with just a 7.0 Hard-Soft% against them and a -1.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week.

Mike Bolsinger had a rough outing in Colorado last time out. That can be forgiven, but he also had the same three walks and strikeouts in his previous start in St Louis. Prior to that, he has shown an ability to generate at least around a league average strikeout rate, but also league average walk rates. He’s not really a bad pitcher, but we’ll look at why he’s not as good as his ERA suggest a little later. Arizona marks a solid matchup that gets even better with the park adjustment.

Mike Leake profiled so poorly before his previous start that I couldn’t even bring myself to recommend him against the Phillies. Then he went out and dominated them through eight innings with nine strikeouts. He gets a second matchup against them tonight and while I’m still not in love with the overall current profile, he has had some past success at home and I somehow may have under-estimated how bad the Phillies really are last week. Their 68 wRC+ vs RHP is 13 points worse than the next worst team. Leake has always had issues with the HR ball, but the Phillies have a 5.3 HR/FB on the road and 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP.

Phil Hughes faces a Kansas City offense that has tanked, but still has just a 16.8 K% vs RHP. Hughes has also been tanking, as he’s maintained his excellent control, but lost the ability to generate any swings and misses. This is not necessarily a tough spot for him, but one with very little upside in his strikeout rate if things go wrong.

Rubby de la Rosa is HR prone (12 allowed) and has already had a rough outing at Dodgers Stadium, in which he allowed two HRs and five ERs. Whatever upside you might see in his peripherals mostly goes away when you look at his 21.4 Hard-Soft% and terrible spot he is in against a team that pounds RHP at home.

Shelby Miller finally got roughed up in his last start when he couldn’t overcome six walks in Arizona. Although that’s not something he’s done yet this year, his ERA still over-states his value considering his peripherals by a large margin, making him over-priced despite a strong matchup.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized

John Lackey (.283 BABIP – 78.4 LOB% – 5.4 HR/RB) – And, of course, Colorado magnifies that last number even more tonight.

NO THANK YOU

Brad Hand – The Blue Jays destroy left-handed pitching.

David Hale – Doesn’t really profile too much worse than league average, but the park is obviously going to kill any value on most nights.

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Jason Vargas – The interesting thing to note here is the significant rise in both his K% and SwStr% over the last month, but he missed two weeks and has only started twice in the last 30 days.

Lance McCullers started off against two teams that don’t swing and miss much, but then had a 10.1 SwStr% against tonight’s opponent (the White Sox) followed by a 14.0 SwStr% against the chase happy Orioles. So, while has an overall league average SwStr% with a K% that doesn’t fit, we could probably expect him to generate at least a league average rate tonight. I wouldn’t expect him to strike out nearly 30% going forward though.

Marco Estrada has a SwStr rate just above his 10.7% career rate, but a K% just below league average for the first time in his career. There’s some upside here, though we should note that he’s been below 10% in each of his last two starts after being in double digits in each of his first four.

Mike Leake – Even in his nine strikeout performance last start, he had just a 7.6 SwStr%, which was actually his best mark in seven starts and by far.

Phil Hughes has seen his K% drop 6.2 points from last season, dropping by nearly a third. Even more concerning though, is a 5.5 SwStr% that is 2.9 points below his career rate and 3.4 points below last year’s rate. He hasn’t exceeded 4.5% in any of his last three starts and got just a single swing and miss in his last start. His velocity, which has been steady at 92 mph for the last three seasons, is down a mph this year.

Rubby de la Rosa has only had a SwStr below 9.6% this season and no lower than 12.9% over his last three starts, including a start where he generated 25 swings and misses against the Cubs. He did get 10 swing and misses against the Dodgers last time out, but when batters have connected a lot of damage has occurred.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

A.J. Burnett had an 80%+ strand rate in nine of his first 11 starts, but has been below 70% in each of his last two starts. His rate still stands at 82.1% for the season, 10 points above his career rate. He also has a 6.4 HR/FB nearly half his career rate (11.1).

Cole Hamels – His .251 BABIP is some 30 points below his career average and 50 point below what his team allows defensively. There are some supporting factors though. His batted ball rates are right around his career numbers, which are fairly league average. Oddly, over 30% of his fly balls are either pop ups or HRs, which is pretty extreme, with 17.6% of those staying in the infield. Hamels has always generated an above league average number of both, but both of those rates lie around 11% for his career. I’d expect both of those numbers to regress to those rates (partially depending on if and where he gets traded), which would keep both above league average and still could allow him to generate a solid BABIP, if not this low. His 83.5 LOB% is also well above his strong 77.3% career rate.

Ian Kennedy obviously screams regression in the 25.5 HR/FB and we’re likely to see his ERA improve dramatically, but there may be some factors denying him the sub-four his SIERA and xFIP suggest. One is that he’s going to have to live with that defense, unless someone or multiple someones get traded should the Padres continue to tank. The other is a 35.1 Hard%. It seems the Padres have demonstrated a team philosophy of challenging hitters with the belief that either they win with a strikeout and don’t have to rely on the defense or the massive Petco will hold most of the mistakes they make. Judging by the strikeout rates from their pitchers, that part has worked, judging from the HR rates, the other part hasn’t so much.

Jimmy Nelson – This has a lot to do with a 13.8 HR/FB, but he actually has a .271 BABIP and 67.3 LOB% that have kept him from an even worse ERA. Generally, his estimators believe that the adjustment to his HR rate will be more significant than the other two. As we can see from the BABIP chart below, he profiles decently and has a solid 19.3 LD%, but the Milwaukee defense could hamper him a bit.

Lance McCullers – Strikeout rate aside, which should adjust his ERA estimators over three if adjusted to his SwStr rate, he hasn’t allowed a HR yet. He will, but the overall profile is still very good.

Mike Bolsinger has very little in his profile that would suggest a great BABIP. In fact, aside from a 17.3 LD%, other indicators in his BABIP chart are working against him. The 86.0 LOB% is a sure bet for an adjustment and while I can’t quibble with the 7.4 HR/FB too much, his tendency has been towards hard contact at the major league level with a 32.8 Hard% through parts of two seasons now.

Mike Leake had a 29.2 HR/FB in May despite a 27.2 Hard% that is close to his 25.9% rate for the season, which is his best since 2011. He’s always allowed a high HR/FB rate (14.0% career), but thankfully a heavy ground ball rate has kept those casualties reasonable overall. If he’s going to continue to miss fewer bats and walk more hitters (7.1 K-BB%), it’s not going to get much better.

Phil Hughes – We just talked about the drop in velocity. He also seems to be throwing a few more sinkers at the expense of his cutter, but it hasn’t made a difference to his batted ball rates. Last year, he exhibited an ability to keep the ball in the park (6.2 HR/FB) that he never has before and the belief may have been that the move from Yankee Stadium helped him greatly, but his 12.4 HR/FB this year is tied for his highest ever. Hughes has always generated higher BABIPs and his .320 is not far enough away for his team’s allowed rate that we should expect regression. This is basically what Hughes with a low strikeout rate looks like.

Rubby de la Rosa – A 33.8 Hard-Soft% supports a high HR/FB in a tough home park, though you’d expect a 19.0 HR/FB to normalize at least a little bit as it would be the 2nd worst rate recorded since 2002 (when the Pitchfx era started). This might also help his 66.5 LOB%. You might expect his ERA to trend closer to FIP than the other estimators though.

Shelby Miller – A .215 BABIP and 84.8 LOB% just can’t be supported by any batted ball rates or other indicators. It’s not even like there’s much of anything in his profile indicating an ability to suppress BABIP much at all. His 6.3 HR/FB is also much lower than anything he generated for the Cardinals, in a park well known to suppress HRs. With just a 9.6 K-BB%, a large adjustment is still in line.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Jason Vargas – This is a little odd, not on his part, as .302 is within 10 points of his BABIP range for each of the past two years and only 18 points above his career average, but because Kansas City has been so good at turning batted balls into outs this year. We’ve mentioned the career high 37.2 Hard%, but that correlates more to overall performance than BABIP and his 18.3 LD% is not a problem with otherwise normal GB & FB rates. Maybe he sees improvement here, which could help his ERA surpass his estimators or perhaps it’s the Kansas City defense that regressed.

Mike Leake – Even with a perennially strong infield defense behind him as a ground baller, he’s never generated very strong BABIPs (.290 career rate). Not much has changed in his batted ball rates.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

A.J. Burnett would seem to be in a good spot in a park that plays down Milwaukee’s greatest strength, but he’s priced very strongly as the #3 pitcher tonight and may not be able to generate much excess value above his cost.

Chris Sale is in a monstrous spot here. He’s easily the top overall guy tonight and should easily surpass double digit strikeouts again. He’s very expensive, but still one of the top values tonight and should be well worth sacrificing some offense for.

Cole Hamels is the 2nd costliest pitcher tonight and while he should be fine, he’s not in Sale’s class and doesn’t have the matchup he has tonight. If you’re going to pay up, choosing him for some variety in GPPs is fine, but you’d probably be better served going all the way up in double ups. The Reds can pose some problems with a bit of power and a tendency to take some walks.

Ian Kennedy is fine if you’re looking at potentially severe regression in his HR rate and in a good spot to see some of that tonight, but not in a good spot to see the upside in his K% play up. Much as Burnett and Hamels, he might be priced pretty close to the results you could reasonably expect him to generate.

Jimmy Nelson has enough upside where his value could easily surpass his price, but he also has a lot of blow up potential and despite a home park that suppresses overall power, the Pirates have a 13.0 HR/FB at home and haven’t been striking out as much as they had to start the season.

Lance McCullers – The biggest surprise has really been his ability to throw strikes and deny the base on balls. We know there’s regression ahead in some areas, but this is a guy who has had control issues at every level. If that’s going to continue, I’ll certainly buy that he’ll maintain enough strikeouts to be useful, even if I’m not buying into his current K rate and the matchup is certainly a plus, even in a tough park. Nobody approaches Sale today, but his potential in this spot could make him the top value at a reasonable price tonight.

Marco Estrada can be a bit scary in Toronto due to having a history of being HR prone, but that hasn’t as much been the case so far this year. I know you’re probably thinking Stanton blasts him, but at a very low price, that could still be true while he generates some value. His K% has some upside beyond what he’s shown this year.

Mike Bolsinger profiles as just about a league average pitcher and is mostly priced as one today, but the matchup is favorable, which could generate a little bit of value beyond his cost, even if we expect a large adjustment to his ERA overall this season.

Mike Leake – The profile scared me off last week and he dominated the Phillies. I don’t think he’ll do that again, but they are just so bad on the road and vs RHP that you have to look favorably on him again at a very low cost.

Phil Hughes can be ok here and the cost is reasonable, but the upside is almost non-existent enough that it might not be worth taking the chance.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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