Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, May 4th
I’ve been talking about my new favorite toys over at Fangraphs, contact authority stats, for most of the past week and continue to try and figure out ways to incorporate them into the article and stats. I’ve made up the stat Hard-Soft% as a quick means to come up a number incorporating both stats that I’ll be talking about a lot going forward. The lower the number, the better for a pitcher and I’ve found that it’s very rare for a pitcher to have a negative number (though one does today).
As far as getting some of these numbers into the charts, an initial consideration was replacing all of the Line Drive stats in the Main and Batted Ball charts because I find the new stats more useful at answering the same question: what is the quality of the contact most often made? That’s probably not in the immediate plans though because changing the format takes a bit of work and a lot of help from some people smarter than me at making this look nice in your web browser.
Lastly, a not about some maintenance. I’ve updated league averages in some of the chart headers below to reflect current 2015 rates. You’ll notice very little difference from last year’s stats as only a couple of decimal points have changed.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ | CombK% | CombBB% | CombLD% | CombHR/FB% | CombIFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 2.5 | 4.13 | 6.02 | 0.92 | 0.98 | 4.3 | 3.47 | ATL | 100 | 98 | 108 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 23.4% | 7.9% | 10.6% |
| Alex Wood | ATL | -3.6 | 3.33 | 6.03 | 1.48 | 0.98 | 2.77 | 3.43 | PHI | 69 | 103 | 72 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 21.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 8.6 | 3.47 | 5.17 | 1.87 | 0.98 | 3.71 | 3.45 | CHC | 110 | 93 | 95 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 22.2% | 10.4% | 13.3% |
| Chase Whitley | NYY | -12.6 | 3.66 | 4.86 | 1.35 | 1.05 | 3.83 | 3.14 | TOR | 129 | 105 | 119 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 18.0% | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | -2.9 | 3.85 | 6.02 | 1.41 | 1.07 | 3.89 | 2.61 | TAM | 77 | 87 | 41 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 19.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 4.6 | 2.51 | 7.19 | 1.68 | 1.07 | 2.53 | 1.58 | MIL | 78 | 25 | 95 | 27.6% | 4.6% | 20.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 9.6 | 3.35 | 6.59 | 2.94 | 1.01 | 3.25 | 3.93 | TEX | 73 | 107 | 80 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 17.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% |
| David Phelps | FLA | -0.4 | 4.29 | 5.62 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 4.4 | 4.07 | WAS | 79 | 83 | 109 | 19.8% | 8.1% | 23.2% | 7.4% | 12.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -14.7 | 2.59 | 6.75 | 2.15 | 0.91 | 2.67 | 2.04 | ANA | 91 | 72 | 63 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 19.0% | 6.7% | 11.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 11.3 | 3.72 | 5.53 | 0.7 | 1.07 | 4.14 | 4.59 | BOS | 100 | 98 | 110 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 22.4% | 9.5% | 11.6% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -17.9 | 3.77 | 5.75 | 1.97 | 1.05 | 4.04 | 2.18 | MIN | 113 | 84 | 133 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 25.5% | 23.8% | 10.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -8.3 | 3.42 | 6.29 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 3.45 | 3.16 | FLA | 101 | 91 | 104 | 20.9% | 5.3% | 24.5% | 6.2% | 13.3% |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 6.7 | 4.02 | 6.15 | 0.95 | 1.4 | 4.31 | 3.22 | COL | 98 | 98 | 88 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 22.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | -5.3 | 4.14 | 6.26 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 3.55 | 4.87 | LOS | 103 | 140 | 122 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 20.7% | 16.5% | 10.3% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -7.3 | 3.17 | 6.49 | 1.26 | 0.87 | 3.08 | 3.04 | SDG | 112 | 123 | 85 | 22.7% | 6.0% | 22.9% | 8.9% | 12.4% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 9.2 | 3.32 | 5.88 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 3.09 | 5.36 | SEA | 88 | 92 | 98 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 19.7% | 12.3% | 6.1% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 2.5 | 3.56 | 5.89 | 0.8 | 1.05 | 3.26 | 2.67 | OAK | 107 | 117 | 110 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 23.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 6.3 | 4.12 | 6.49 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 3.89 | 4.76 | NYY | 116 | 95 | 105 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 20.4% | 14.1% | 11.5% |
| Ross Detwiler | TEX | -0.6 | 4.49 | 4.83 | 1.18 | 1.01 | 4.53 | 5.41 | HOU | 94 | 113 | 167 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 18.3% | 18.5% | 9.3% |
| Travis Wood | CHC | -2.4 | 4.34 | 5.89 | 0.76 | 0.98 | 5.22 | 2.49 | STL | 101 | 78 | 106 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 23.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 5.8 | 4.31 | 5.96 | 1.53 | 1.4 | 4.24 | 6.72 | ARI | 86 | 86 | 103 | 16.6% | 10.2% | 18.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -18 | 3.2 | 6.19 | 2.32 | 0.87 | 3.57 | 3.11 | SFO | 101 | 102 | 106 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 19.5% | 13.3% | 6.0% |
Aaron Harang has pitched well overall, but his low ERA/FIP are due to allowing only a single HR so far. He may be able to continue that run in a big park in Atlanta. He’s struck out at least six in four of his five starts, which is surprising. The Braves have been nearly average in every aspect I can find, but strike out less often than most teams (16.6 K% vs RHP, 16.2 K% over the last week).
Alex Wood has not pitched well, but was very good at home last year and has a 28.7 K% there over the last two years. His K% is mainly what’s at issue here today and we’ll talk about it below. The Phillies have struck out only 15.9% vs LHP, but are the 3rd worst road offense in the baseball (69 wRC+, 5.9 HR/FB). We’ve also found something else they’re worst at: they have the lowest hard hit rate in baseball (20.9%) and major league low 1.9 Hard-Soft%.
Carlos Martinez threw his changeup that I raved about over 20% of the time against the Phillies last time out, but couldn’t get them to swing and miss much. He won’t maintain his current BABIP or strand rate (both discussed below), but does have some of the best contact authority stats going for him today, both his (2.9 Hard-Soft%) and the Cubs (7.9 Hard-Soft%). The Cubs also have the highest combined K% today with a 23.3% mark on the road, 24.7% vs RHP, and 29.8% over the last week.
Chase Whitley was solid for the Yankees in his season debut for five innings against the Rays, but faces the 2nd toughest home offense in the majors, which a high rate of hard hit balls confirms.
Clay Buchholz is doing well with the bat missing portion of his game, but not so much the contact management part (more later). He has faced some of the harder hitting teams of the AL East lately though, Tampa Bay not being one of them though. He struck out 10 of them nearly two weeks ago and they’ve been, by far, the worst offense in the majors over the last week, including a 26.3 K% and 1.8 HR/FB.
Clayton Kershaw has the highest combined K-BB% (23.1) of today’s starters with all three ERA estimators in his chart above adding up to 6.62 combined as well. His contact management is just average for the season (11.6 Hard-Soft%), but much better lately. The Brewers have just 142 chances against LHP this season, but have a 21.9 K-BB% against them and by far a major league worst 25 wRC+ without a HR. The park is not pretty and the Brewers do have the 2nd highest hard hit rate at home (32.4%), but otherwise this looks like one of the greatest matchups you’ll see this season for a pitcher.
Dallas Keuchel has been an elite contact authority manager this year and we’ll talk much more about that below, though not everything he’s doing is sustainable. Rarely allowing opponents to hit the ball hard in the air does a lot to make up for a below average, but respectable K%. The Rangers have been a terrible road offense, but have hit LHP fairly well.
David Phelps has gotten decent results in his starts, but owns a 22.0 Hard-Soft% on the season. That is 2nd worst among today’s starters with only 10.2% of his batted balls hit softly, a mark that would be 4th worst in baseball if he had the innings to qualify. The Washington offense is still not yet doing their part to keep up with the pitching.
Felix Hernandez has only five strikeouts in his two road starts this season, but a 2.67 xFIP and 25.8 K% away since the start of last year. He can pitch anywhere. The Angels are basically a one man show on offense and are among the worst in the league with 6.9 Hard-Soft% on contact. They are well below average at home, vs RHP, and over the last week. When you add park effects in, they may end up a better matchup for a pitcher than the Brewers or Phillies today.
Jake Odorizzi has struck out just seven of his last 54 batters, but his 1.1 Hard-Soft% is among the league leaders this season. We’ll talk about how he’s really helping his low BABIP later. The Red Sox offense has improved as a team up to league average and they’ve struck out only 15.9% of the time vs RHP.
Jesse Hahn has also been very good at avoiding hard contact (2.9 Hard-Soft%) and struck out six of 20 Angels his last time out after an 11 day layoff, but his only fly ball allowed left the park. It was his first HR allowed this year. That he’s only allowed one fly ball and it was a HR majorly skews the HR/FB in today’s main chart. The Twins have come alive on offense and for some reason, have generally hit well at home over the last few years.
Jordan Zimmerman pitched better in his last two starts (11Ks in 49 batters with just one BB) and has an overall very good 4.4 Hard-Soft% on the season, despite an elevated BABIP and LD rate (26.7%). The drop in velocity remains a concern though.
Josh Collmenter faces a Colorado team that has been surprisingly mediocre when you strip away park effects at home, but have a major league best 17.6 Hard-Soft% overall this year.
Kyle Lohse should show improvement in almost all areas of his game this year. The good news is below, but the bad news is it’s probably not tonight. He’s had a HR problem and faces the Dodgers in Milwaukee. LA has smashed RHP for a 19.4 HR/FB this year and 22.2% of their fly balls have left the yard altogether over the last week.
Madison Bumgarner hasn’t really excelled this season, but has been much better in his last two starts, both against the Dodgers. He’s struck out 15 of his last 57 batters, allowing just three earned runs in 14.1 IP with a 5.1 Hard-Soft%. The Padres have been a strong park neutral offense on the road and vs LHP, though they have a surprisingly low 4.3 HR/FB vs southpaws and the park should strip away some of those offensive gains tonight.
Matt Shoemaker combines a propensity for hard contact, which we’ll speak a lot more of below, with the 2nd highest Hard-Soft rate (16.8%) in baseball tonight for the Mariners. The result is potentially some of the hardest hit balls of the night, which isn’t something you’d notice from looking at most of the numbers in the main chart today, though the HR/FB is a bit high. Shoemaker continues to struggle with reduced velocity, down 2 mph this season.
Phil Hughes has thrown more two seam fastballs (29.7%) than ever before if you believe PitchF/X. pitch mix, though he’s skewed back more towards the four seamer in his last start. The velocity has been down nearly a mile per hour, but was similar last April before picking up. The swing and miss stuff has improved over his last two starts, so maybe that means he’s back on track. You know he won’t walk anyone, but the HR’s have been an issue for him and the A’s do have some pop. They do not strike out though, with today’s lowest combined mark in the K/BB chart below, including just 16.4% vs RHP and 12.5% over the last week.
R.A Dickey probably had his best outing of the season because it was the first time he didn’t issue a walk. In fact, he’s walked just one of his last 54 batters. He’s always been well above average in managing contact and that continues this year despite five HRs. It’s more that he excels in soft contact (23.5%) than limits the hard (27.6%). The Yankees have hit well on the road (3rd best wRC+) and have a 12.9 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 7.6 team Hard-Soft% overall. It’s more in their 10.3 BB% on the road.
Ross Detwiler no longer throws pitches that end up on the ground when batters hit them. We’ll talk about some disturbing trends in his batted ball profile later, but in honor of the Avengers opening this weekend, we’ll just say “Houston. Smash.” They have a 19.8 HR/FB at home, 18.8 vs LHP, and 28.6 over the last week.
Travis Wood has had two rough starts on the road, but two better ones at home. That meshes well with his road xFIP since the start of last season. St Louis has shown a weakness vs LHP with a 78 wRC+ without a HR (190 plate appearances) and a 23.7 K%, though they’ve walked 14.2% of the time. They have an enormous lead on the softly hit department vs LHP (26.3%) as well. Irrelevant today, but they make up for that with the lowest rate (14.6%) vs RHP. More relevant today, is Wood having the 5th worst hard contact rate (37.1%) in the majors, leading to a 24.2 Hard-Soft% that is worst among today’s pitchers. Something has to give here.
Tyler Matzek has walked a ton of batters and has a pretty sad 18.7 Hard-Soft% this year. I guess we’re all in on Goldschmidt tonight or should some of us fade him now?
Tyson Ross is still striking a significant number of batters out, more than last year even, but with a 14.1 BB% and is being hit hard. You wonder if he’s being affected by the changes in the San Diego catching situation. Lefties are slugging .481 off of him so far. He has a neutral matchup in a great park tonight.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 18.4% | 7.3% | Road | 16.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 3.8% |
| Alex Wood | Braves | 23.3% | 7.3% | Home | 28.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 21.6% | 9.0% | Home | 22.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 9.8% |
| Chase Whitley | Yankees | 18.5% | 5.4% | Road | 18.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 4.6% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.5% | 7.5% | Home | 18.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 10.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 28.7% | 4.8% | Road | 29.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 2.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.1% | 6.8% | Home | 18.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 3.5% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 18.4% | 9.3% | Road | 17.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 3.9% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 26.8% | 5.4% | Road | 25.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 1.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.9% | 7.7% | Road | 21.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 5.6% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | 20.6% | 9.2% | Road | 19.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 5.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.7% | 4.2% | Home | 20.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 2.0% |
| Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 17.2% | 6.0% | Road | 14.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 16.2% | 5.2% | Home | 18.5% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 3.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 24.6% | 6.1% | Home | 25.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 5.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 22.4% | 4.8% | Home | 24.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 9.8% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 20.4% | 3.6% | Home | 20.8% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 18.6% | 7.8% | Home | 21.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 1.9% |
| Ross Detwiler | Rangers | 13.1% | 6.9% | Road | 11.9% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.9% |
| Travis Wood | Cubs | 18.6% | 8.7% | Road | 14.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 4.4% |
| Tyler Matzek | Rockies | 17.6% | 9.6% | Home | 16.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 20.9% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.6% | 9.0% | Road | 22.2% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 17.5% | 8.1% | RH | 16.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.2% | 9.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.4% | 6.0% | LH | 15.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.3% | 8.9% | RH | 24.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 29.8% | 7.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.4% | 10.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.4% |
| Rays | Road | 22.6% | 8.8% | RH | 22.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 23.7% | 6.1% | LH | 25.4% | 3.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 5.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.3% | 8.5% | LH | 19.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 23.8% | 9.0% | RH | 22.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Home | 20.0% | 8.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.3% | 10.1% | RH | 15.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.2% |
| Twins | Home | 20.0% | 5.6% | RH | 22.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 19.5% | 4.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.9% | 7.7% | RH | 21.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.0% | 6.7% | RH | 18.8% | 5.3% | L7Days | 22.9% | 5.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 17.5% | 8.7% | RH | 19.6% | 10.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.6% |
| Padres | Road | 21.1% | 5.6% | LH | 20.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 7.2% | RH | 20.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 17.4% | 7.4% | RH | 16.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.1% | 10.3% | RH | 20.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.0% |
| Astros | Home | 26.1% | 10.6% | LH | 23.4% | 10.6% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 16.7% | 9.5% | LH | 23.7% | 14.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 11.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.4% | 6.0% | LH | 17.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Giants | Home | 17.8% | 8.0% | RH | 17.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.8% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 21.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | Road | 23.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 0.0% | 23.5% |
| Alex Wood | Braves | 20.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | Home | 21.2% | 12.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.8% | 8.1% | 11.7% | Home | 23.4% | 11.6% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Chase Whitley | Yankees | 20.4% | 11.4% | 8.0% | Road | 21.2% | 12.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | Home | 23.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.6% | 6.8% | 11.0% | Road | 18.4% | 3.8% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.9% | 12.2% | 8.0% | Home | 15.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 23.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | Road | 24.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 18.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | Road | 17.8% | 7.4% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.8% | 7.6% | 9.9% | Road | 22.0% | 14.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | 22.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | Road | 22.6% | 3.0% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 23.1% | 7.7% | 13.4% | Home | 24.4% | 3.9% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 7.4% | 12.6% | Road | 22.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 20.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | Home | 20.8% | 12.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 16.7% | 12.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | Home | 24.6% | 10.2% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.1% | 28.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 20.9% | 9.8% | 5.4% | Home | 19.7% | 9.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 23.4% | 8.6% | 10.7% | Home | 23.2% | 8.2% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 19.7% | 12.0% | 12.8% | Home | 19.1% | 14.5% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Ross Detwiler | Rangers | 21.7% | 9.9% | 7.9% | Road | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 23.5% | 0.0% |
| Travis Wood | Cubs | 23.3% | 7.9% | 12.9% | Road | 22.6% | 8.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Tyler Matzek | Rockies | 20.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | Home | 19.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 19.0% | 10.7% | 7.0% | Road | 21.4% | 17.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 22.6% | 12.4% | 9.3% | RH | 22.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.3% | 5.8% | 9.2% | LH | 22.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.1% | 8.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.6% | 10.6% | 11.8% | RH | 20.5% | 9.9% | 14.8% | L7Days | 28.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 18.2% | 15.8% | 15.8% | RH | 16.7% | 13.4% | 13.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Rays | Road | 17.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | RH | 18.3% | 7.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 1.8% | 8.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 19.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | LH | 15.6% | 0.0% | 2.9% | L7Days | 18.5% | 13.1% | 6.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 14.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | LH | 21.9% | 12.8% | 11.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.5% | 13.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 16.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Home | 25.0% | 8.2% | 13.4% | RH | 21.3% | 7.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 17.2% | 6.7% | 11.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.8% | 12.1% | 14.1% | RH | 18.9% | 10.8% | 14.1% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.2% | 18.4% |
| Twins | Home | 23.1% | 12.5% | 9.8% | RH | 22.4% | 8.5% | 14.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.5% | 13.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.8% | 11.1% | 6.9% | RH | 21.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.4% | 11.8% | 7.9% | RH | 22.3% | 13.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 15.1% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.8% | 17.1% | 10.5% | RH | 21.5% | 19.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Padres | Road | 19.3% | 12.4% | 7.9% | LH | 25.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.4% | 6.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.2% | 15.2% | 7.2% | RH | 19.4% | 11.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.9% | 14.0% | 5.3% | RH | 22.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.1% | 11.8% | 8.8% | RH | 19.7% | 12.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% |
| Astros | Home | 14.4% | 19.8% | 11.9% | LH | 17.3% | 18.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.2% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | LH | 20.9% | 0.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 4.8% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 17.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | LH | 13.4% | 7.5% | 17.0% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | RH | 21.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.7% | 7.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 21.6% | 8.3% | 2.60 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 2.60 |
| Alex Wood | ATL | 16.3% | 4.2% | 3.88 | 16.3% | 4.2% | 3.88 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.64 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.64 |
| Chase Whitley | NYY | 22.7% | 11.8% | 1.92 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 1.92 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 28.5% | 10.7% | 2.66 | 28.5% | 10.7% | 2.66 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 33.3% | 13.8% | 2.41 | 33.3% | 13.8% | 2.41 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 16.3% | 6.9% | 2.36 | 16.3% | 6.9% | 2.36 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 15.4% | 4.4% | 3.50 | 15.4% | 4.4% | 3.50 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 27.5% | 11.5% | 2.39 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 2.39 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.92 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.92 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 12.6% | 7.2% | 1.75 | 12.6% | 7.2% | 1.75 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 15.4% | 6.7% | 2.30 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 2.30 |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 12.3% | 6.7% | 1.84 | 12.3% | 6.7% | 1.84 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 15.1% | 8.7% | 1.74 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 1.74 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 19.7% | 8.9% | 2.21 | 19.7% | 8.9% | 2.21 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 18.7% | 9.2% | 2.03 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 2.03 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 19.7% | 7.0% | 2.81 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 2.81 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.9% | 8.5% | 1.75 | 14.9% | 8.5% | 1.75 |
| Ross Detwiler | TEX | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.70 | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.70 |
| Travis Wood | CHC | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.26 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.26 |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 14.8% | 7.3% | 2.03 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 2.03 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 28.9% | 13.4% | 2.16 | 28.9% | 13.4% | 2.16 |
Alex Wood responded to my criticism of his strikeout rate by striking out eight of 22 Nationals last time out. He did this with only four swings and misses in 100 pitches. This is not a recipe for continued success.
David Phelps also missed just four bats in his last start, but struck out only four of 26 Mets. His SwStr hasn’t topped 5.3% in any of his three starts.
Kyle Lohse – With his best SwStr% since 2006 and a nearly league average mark, you’d expect that he’s in line for a few more strikeouts. This doesn’t seem fluky as his SwStr% rose last year too and he has a low of 7.9% over his last four starts.
Phil Hughes has never had a SwStr below 8.5% in a full season. There is hope though, because it’s been at or above that in each of his last two starts after three at or below 6.5% to start the season.
Ross Detwiler is sitting right around his career SwStr%. His K%, while never good, has generally been a bit better (13.9% career) and you should probably expect the same going forward. He did strike out five in his last start, matching his previous total for the year.
Travis Wood has faced teams that strike out a lot and has a respectable SwStr rate. It’s been at least 7.1% in every start, which is exactly his career number. He hasn’t had a K rate above 18.7% since his rookie year in 2010. He’s looking at a hard drop in his K% even if his SwStr% remains.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 2.51 | 3.73 | 1.22 | 3.78 | 1.27 | 2.52 | 0.01 | 2.51 | 3.73 | 1.22 | 3.78 | 1.27 | 2.52 | 0.01 |
| Alex Wood | ATL | 4.03 | 4.39 | 0.36 | 4.15 | 0.12 | 3.35 | -0.68 | 4.03 | 4.39 | 0.36 | 4.15 | 0.12 | 3.35 | -0.68 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 1.73 | 3.61 | 1.88 | 3.38 | 1.65 | 4.45 | 2.72 | 1.73 | 3.61 | 1.88 | 3.38 | 1.65 | 4.45 | 2.72 |
| Chase Whitley | NYY | 1.8 | 3.14 | 1.34 | 3.09 | 1.29 | 1.74 | -0.06 | 1.8 | 3.14 | 1.34 | 3.09 | 1.29 | 1.74 | -0.06 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 5.76 | 2.81 | -2.95 | 2.76 | -3 | 2.62 | -3.14 | 5.76 | 2.81 | -2.95 | 2.76 | -3 | 2.62 | -3.14 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 3.73 | 2.15 | -1.58 | 1.93 | -1.8 | 2.82 | -0.91 | 3.73 | 2.15 | -1.58 | 1.93 | -1.8 | 2.82 | -0.91 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.73 | 3.54 | 2.81 | 3.5 | 2.77 | 2.84 | 2.11 | 0.73 | 3.54 | 2.81 | 3.5 | 2.77 | 2.84 | 2.11 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 3.38 | 4.93 | 1.55 | 4.78 | 1.4 | 2.98 | -0.4 | 3.38 | 4.93 | 1.55 | 4.78 | 1.4 | 2.98 | -0.4 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 1.82 | 2.32 | 0.5 | 2.62 | 0.8 | 2.22 | 0.4 | 1.82 | 2.32 | 0.5 | 2.62 | 0.8 | 2.22 | 0.4 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.41 | 3.79 | 1.38 | 3.8 | 1.39 | 2.4 | -0.01 | 2.41 | 3.79 | 1.38 | 3.8 | 1.39 | 2.4 | -0.01 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 2.86 | 3.95 | 1.09 | 4.01 | 1.15 | 3.69 | 0.83 | 2.86 | 3.95 | 1.09 | 4.01 | 1.15 | 3.69 | 0.83 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 4.88 | 4.36 | -0.52 | 4.41 | -0.47 | 3.18 | -1.7 | 4.88 | 4.36 | -0.52 | 4.41 | -0.47 | 3.18 | -1.7 |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 2.76 | 4.19 | 1.43 | 3.8 | 1.04 | 2.84 | 0.08 | 2.76 | 4.19 | 1.43 | 3.8 | 1.04 | 2.84 | 0.08 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 7.28 | 4.25 | -3.03 | 4.19 | -3.09 | 5.97 | -1.31 | 7.28 | 4.25 | -3.03 | 4.19 | -3.09 | 5.97 | -1.31 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.73 | 3.63 | -0.1 | 3.84 | 0.11 | 3.49 | -0.24 | 3.73 | 3.63 | -0.1 | 3.84 | 0.11 | 3.49 | -0.24 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 6 | 4.2 | -1.8 | 4.36 | -1.64 | 4.86 | -1.14 | 6 | 4.2 | -1.8 | 4.36 | -1.64 | 4.86 | -1.14 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.55 | 3.56 | -0.99 | 3.51 | -1.04 | 4.15 | -0.4 | 4.55 | 3.56 | -0.99 | 3.51 | -1.04 | 4.15 | -0.4 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 5.23 | 4.86 | -0.37 | 4.96 | -0.27 | 5.5 | 0.27 | 5.23 | 4.86 | -0.37 | 4.96 | -0.27 | 5.5 | 0.27 |
| Ross Detwiler | TEX | 8.66 | 5.75 | -2.91 | 6.37 | -2.29 | 8.12 | -0.54 | 8.66 | 5.75 | -2.91 | 6.37 | -2.29 | 8.12 | -0.54 |
| Travis Wood | CHC | 3.04 | 3.08 | 0.04 | 3.24 | 0.2 | 3.35 | 0.31 | 3.04 | 3.08 | 0.04 | 3.24 | 0.2 | 3.35 | 0.31 |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 2.7 | 5.66 | 2.96 | 5.79 | 3.09 | 4.89 | 2.19 | 2.7 | 5.66 | 2.96 | 5.79 | 3.09 | 4.89 | 2.19 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 4.55 | 3.66 | -0.89 | 3.4 | -1.15 | 3.94 | -0.61 | 4.55 | 3.66 | -0.89 | 3.4 | -1.15 | 3.94 | -0.61 |
Carlos Martinez still has his 100% strand rate, though his 22.2 HR/FB (four of 18) does drag things back the other way some in two of his estimators (remember FIP uses actual HR/FB and does not normalize like the other two). Getting into the BABIP, it’s increased and been in the .260’s in each of his last two starts, but is still far too low overall and without any positive indicators in the BABIP chart, including an unexpectedly sad 92.9 Z-Contact%. His line drive rate looks average, but where we see our first positive sign is in his 2.9 Hard-Soft% this year. The quality of the contact generally speaks well for him.
Clay Buchholz – His ERA has actually gone up from last year’s 5.34 mark that was way above his peripherals for 2014, but he’s pitched even better this season according to those numbers. The 21.6 K-BB% is excellent, but the 59.1 LOB% is a product of that enormous BABIP. The BABIP chart shows that none of his 22 fly balls have been pops and free outs help, but lack of them doesn’t put your BABIP over .400. His line drive rate is well below league average (17.8%). Let’s go to the new stats. Those aren’t as pretty (14.8 Hard-Soft%), but it’s hardly worst in the league or even close. His failing comes in avoiding soft contact, as he’s among the league lowest rates there. What might be particularly disturbing is his 50% hard and 5% soft rates over the last two weeks, both worst among today’s starters. So while you’d expect a great deal of improvement over the long run, he’s been hit hard lately.
Clayton Kershaw has a 22.2 HR/FB (four of 18) and .378 BABIP. First, the good news is a Z-Contact that is 2nd in the league. The bad news is the 26.3 LD%, but even that isn’t so bad when you realize he strikes out so many batters that he’s allowed exactly four line drives in every start. His quality of contact is almost exactly league average (11.6 Hard-Soft%). The even better news is that his hard and soft rates are both 26.7% over the last two weeks for 0 Hard-Soft%, tied for the lead among today’s starters. I’m pretty confident Kershaw is back.
Dallas Keuchel leads all of today’s starters with a -3.90 Hard-Soft%. He’s the only one with a negative rate. He is in the top 11 in the majors in both rates and among today’s pitchers who have exclusively started and has the best Hard-Soft% (6.00) over the last two calendar years. That, in addition to his 16.8 LD% and 65.3 GB% help explain his low BABIP, where the other BABIP chart indicators will not. Lots of weak ground balls. All that said, neither he nor the Houston defense are that good. His BABIP will rise by at least 100 points most likely, his strand rate will regress from 88.9%, and some of his fly balls will leave the yard (none of 18 have yet).
Kyle Lohse is a ground ball pitcher and in fact, has the lowest GB rate (36.7%) of his career so far. Eight of his 38 fly balls have already left the yard for a 21.1 HR/FB. That’s a problem and is probably affecting his 55.6 LOB%, but hasn’t been a career trend. His BABIP is fine despite a career worst 24.5 LD%, but mostly because of a solid 7.9 Hard-Soft%.
Matt Shoemaker has a BABIP over 40 points higher than last year and has stranded just 2/3 of his runners. His 26.9 LD% matches his GB% and his 16.2 Hard-Soft% is not good, but was actually worse last year. Over his last two starts, 43.8% of his batted balls have been hit hard. The difference was likely in an 18.4 K-BB% in 2014 versus a 13.2% one this year. It brings you back to the velocity drop.
Ross Detwiler has allowed six of 35 fly balls to leave the yard, but that he has so many fly balls is part of the problem. He has a career 1.37 GB/FB and at least 1.4 each of the last three years, but is sitting at 0.63 this year. The LD rate is normal, but everything is in the air and he only has one IFFB. All of that makes a 15.3 Hard-Soft% that’s not good look even worse. No ground balls, no pop ups, too many hard hit fly balls equals lots of extra base hits probably and his current 63.3 LOB%.
Tyler Matzek unfortunately, an 85.9 LOB% and amazing 4.3 HR/FB pitching two of his four games in Colorado and another in Arizona, are masking his 0.0 K-BB%. Though his BABIP may not show it, he adds an 18.7 Hard-Soft% that is 3rd worst among today’s starters, including a 46.4% hard hit rate over his last two starts.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.310 | 0.256 | -0.054 | 15.0% | 85.2% |
| Alex Wood | ATL | 0.276 | 0.341 | 0.065 | 18.5% | 92.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.272 | 0.203 | -0.069 | 11.1% | 92.9% |
| Chase Whitley | NYY | 0.287 | 0.375 | 0.088 | 0.0% | 83.9% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.306 | 0.403 | 0.097 | 0.0% | 86.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.290 | 0.378 | 0.088 | 11.1% | 78.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.255 | 0.157 | -0.098 | 0.0% | 92.6% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.266 | 0.254 | -0.012 | 16.0% | 91.2% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.303 | 0.247 | -0.056 | 25.0% | 87.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.257 | 0.221 | -0.036 | 11.4% | 88.0% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.272 | 0.235 | -0.037 | 0.0% | 93.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.329 | 0.344 | 0.015 | 22.9% | 92.5% |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 0.304 | 0.300 | -0.004 | 15.2% | 94.3% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 0.301 | 0.280 | -0.021 | 10.5% | 90.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.284 | 0.316 | 0.032 | 24.3% | 91.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.277 | 0.328 | 0.051 | 9.7% | 88.0% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.285 | 0.316 | 0.031 | 14.0% | 89.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.307 | 0.258 | -0.049 | 8.3% | 83.7% |
| Ross Detwiler | TEX | 0.307 | 0.364 | 0.057 | 2.9% | 89.5% |
| Travis Wood | CHC | 0.298 | 0.271 | -0.027 | 3.7% | 86.9% |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 0.320 | 0.293 | -0.027 | 8.7% | 88.0% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.292 | 0.348 | 0.056 | 0.0% | 81.8% |
Alex Wood – His batted ball rates look perfectly average and he’s even induced five free outs (IFFBs), which is already half of last year’s total. He even has a respectable 10.8 Hard-Soft%, which is a little bit better than league average. The Z-Contact% is not pretty and is the one concern, way up from last season’s 86.6%.
Felix Hernandez – So far, he’s gotten at least one IFFB in four of five starts and we like free outs. His modest Z-Contact% is actually a career best. Discounting a shortened rookie season, his 63.5 GB% and 2.7 GB/FB are also his best along with a 12.7 LD% that is probably not sustainable. His 8.1 Hard-Soft% is solidly better than league average, though not elite. It’s been an even better 4.7% over the last two weeks.
Jake Odorizzi has increased his GB rate by nearly half and reduced his LD rate to 20%. That’s one way to drop your BABIP over 70 points. Another is a 1.1 Hard-Soft% this season, especially considering a 12.9% mark over the last two calendar years. Of course, we’re still talking about a .221 BABIP, so expect regression, but he’s got a solid defense and has earned a lot of this, so maybe we can look forward to something better than his career .283 and last year’s .295 BABIP. There’s really nowhere he’s lacking here.
Jesse Hahn does not have in IFFB, and has 24.6 LD% and very poor Z-Contact%. He does have a very impressive 2.9 Hard-Soft% and a defense that has been great at limiting hits on balls in play, though both his and their BABIP are very likely to rise over the course of the season.
R.A. Dickey – There’s no issue with the BABIP as this is within his normal range as is his always exceptional Z-Contact%. IFFBs are down, with just three so far and over 30 each of the past two seasons. He maintains a very good 4.1 Hard-Soft%.
Tyson Ross – Opponents have had a BABIP above .300 in every start, though his batted ball numbers are fairly normal with a strong 2.22 GB/FB and Z-Contact% among the league leaders. The problem seems to be in quality of contact with an 18.0 Hard-Soft%, well worse than last year’s nearly league average mark. Just last week, I would have assumed he’d be fine and he still may be, but the hard authority of contact suggests that this is more his fault than it can be blamed on a poor San Diego defense.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Alex Wood – This is in no way an endorsement of his eight K’s last time out, as mentioned in the SwStr chart above. The Phillies don’t strike out much, so I’d expect the K’s to be limited today, but they also don’t hit the ball hard. There should be lots of easy outs on batted balls.
Carlos Martinez – I’ve written two decently sized paragraphs about him today. We have a reasonable expectation of not many hard hit balls today, it’s a hard park to hit the ball out of, and the Cubs give his K rate some real upside today. He won’t continue to strand everybody, but is still quite affordable.
Clay Buchholz – That we can actually tell he’s been getting hit hard is worrisome, but the Rays are ice cold with the bats and he’s probably very under-valued when weighing his strikeouts against his enormous BABIP. This is more of a low cost GPP play of course.
Clayton Kershaw – No more words are really necessary except to say that he may be top value even at top price today.
Dallas Keuchel – This is like paying for ground balls, but in this case, you really know you’re going to get them in addition to lots of weak contact. Just beware that without a ton of strikeouts, daily fantasy upside may be limited.
Felix Hernandez – Pretty much Kershaw, but to a slightly lesser extent today. He just needs to pitch around Trout, who owns him.
Jesse Hahn – Is one of those guys who you didn’t even know you were going to consider until you looked at the price tag. Everybody has a price, a famous heel wrestler once said. I don’t expect a lot out of him and it’s a risk against a tough Minnesota offense at home, but he has been good at limiting contact authority and is coming off a season high six Ks.
Jordan Zimmermann – I still have a little bit of an issue in paying up for him because there are remaining red flags, but he has pitched better recently.
Madison Bumgarner – The Padres his LHP well, but with little power and Bumgarner is coming off back to back strong performances against the top offense in the league.
Tyson Ross – I’m really blanking on left handed danger from the Giants. Maybe Brandon Belt? He has had his issues against them this year, but still strikes a ton of batters out and is in a great park. There is definitely a little bit of risk to go with your upside here though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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