Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, April 28th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-04-30 15:51:10

Monday was a tough night. None of the pitchers at the top really had great starts, but I guess that evens things up a bit. Nobody gets them all right, except maybe Kevin with the weather. We also had a game canceled due to a riot in Baltimore and nobody even knows if or where they’re going to play the series as I write this. It might even be canceled by the time you read this (Editor’s note: It has been. Don’t use any players from that game in today’s contests.). Cleveland and Boston insist on starting an hour early all week, so we’ll be providing stats on those pitchers, but skipping the analysis as those games don’t factor into most daily fantasy offerings.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp. team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

A.J. Cole is the #6 prospect for the Nationals on the Fangraphs list and like the article says, it seems like he’s been around forever, but is only just today making his Major League debut. He throws four pitches with a fastball 91-94 mph and is projected as a back of the rotation type arm. He has a 2.40 ERA, but 3.90 FIP with a 14.3 K-BB% due to just walking one batter through three AAA starts. He hasn’t been missing many bats either.

Anibal Sanchez walked four in his last start, but struck out a third of the batters he faces and only allowed a single run. He’s off to a rough start due to the long ball. Minnesota has the third-worst offense vs RHP with a 23.0 K% and just a 6.1 HR/FB against them.

Archie Bradley has a lot of red in his ledger, despite a shiny ERA. We’ll explore that today. Colorado has been an above average team with power away from home this year. They have a 12.5 HR/FB on the road this year.

Chase Whitley was a swing-man for the Yankees last year, working 75.2 IP in twelve starts and as many bullpen outings. He had trouble keeping the ball in the park, as many do at Yankee Stadium, but had a respectable 12.7 K-BB%. A .353 BABIP eventually did him in and he didn’t even make the team out of spring training this year. The Rays have been above average vs RHP this year and are hitting the ball well over the last week.

Clayton Kershaw has a 1.69 xFIP with a 30.9 K-BB% at home since the start of last season. He’s had a bit of an issue managing contact this season, but his peripherals match last year. After a rough start, he was able to dispatch these Giants with ease in his last start.

David Phelps is more of a spot starter than a piece you want in your rotation long term. The Mets have the 3rd worst road offense and 3rd worst HR/FB (6.2) vs RHP and that’s counting the three-run shot that won the game for them in the 9th last night.

Hector Noesi has done some extreme things in his two starts, but the one where he walked six batters was actually the start where he had better traditional results. The Orioles are not a team a RHP wants to face in their home park. They own an 18.0 HR/FB at home and 18.8 HR/FB vs RHP.

J.A. Happ has pitched at least into the 7th inning and allowed exactly two ERs in every start, but things are hardly that rosy if you look further. The Rangers seem like a good matchup, but have been league average vs LHP.

Jake Odorizzi has walked as many has he’s struck out in two of his last three starts (three in both instances), but was sensational in between. Oddly, the middle one was the one where he allowed the most runs, against these Yankees. They’ve been hitting the ball well and Odorizzi has a 14.8 HR/FB on the road since the start of last season, where the Yankees have a 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP this year.

Jeff Locke has struck out 13 of his last 50 batters (26%). The Cubs have a 27.1 K% vs LHP and 26.8 K% over the last week. There may be some hidden potential there, but Locke also has a 14.8 HR/FB on the road since the start of last season.

Jered Weaver no longer lays the smack down on his peripherals. The Athletics have the 3rd lowest K% (15.6) at home, though with just a 4.0 HR/FB. They are the 3rd best offense vs RHP.

Johnny Cueto lines up well with his peripherals. Take note because this rarely happens. There’s a bit of a difference in his xFIP and SIERA, but that’s negligible after just a few starts. And it’s not that his ERA has gotten worse, but that his underlying skills have gotten better with a ridiculous 24.5 K-BB%. Milwaukee is the worst road offense in the league (they have yet to homer) and is bad vs RHP too. Cueto has a 23.4 K-BB% at home since the start of last season.

Julio Teheran hasn’t pitched well and maybe the scarier thing is that his peripherals are right there with his ERA in large part due to his 12.9 BB%. His HR/FB has more than doubled to 19.0% as he’s allowed four already. That part should normalize at least, but this fly ball pitcher probably misses Jason Heyward, though the fly ball rate is down this year and the team has remained very good at limiting BABIP. The Nationals are off to a terrible start and it seems like we’ve seen this story before. Only the Astros have struck out more vs RHP.

Kyle Kendrick should be happy to get out of Coors for a day. He faces the coldest offense in the league. The Diamondbacks have a just a 6.0 HR/FB at home and 6.9 HR/FB vs RHP.

Kyle Lohse hasn’t seen the results, but is missing more bats than he ever has. The Reds have the 2nd worst home K rate (24.7%) in the majors.

Madison Bumgarner did his best work of the season vs these same Dodgers in SF his last time out. They’ve pummeled opposing pitchers at home with a 17.2 HR/FB that nearly matches their 17.7 HR/FB over the last week.

Michael Wacha wins the prize with the Phillies tonight, although it didn’t work out as expected for Lackey last night. His dominant ERA does not paint a true picture, but he hasn’t pitched poorly. The Phillies surprisingly have the lowest strikeout rate (13.7%) in the majors over the last week.

Rafael Montero has 4.1 IP out of the bullpen and then was sent down to stretch out when the Mets decided they wanted a sixth starter this time through the rotation. He has not looked good in his minor league starts and has struggled to command secondary pitches in his major league starting assignments. If he could just throw strikes, he should be able to navigate a Miami offense that has a 4.8 HR/FB at home.

Ross Detwiler has allowed exactly five ERs in each start and has walked more than he struck out. The Mariners haven’t been hitting lately, but have a 15.7 HR/FB on the road and 17.8 HR/FB vs LHP.

Severino Gonzalez is Fangraphs’ 16th rated Phillies prospect. He had a rough year last year and has only struck out 12.2% of his batters in three starts at AAA this year. He should at least be able to keep the ball in the park as the Cardinals have just a 3.7 HR/FB at home.

Sonny Gray finally missed a few bats last time out, but can we expect that to continue? He rematches with an Angels team he dominated last time out.

Travis Wood has had one good start and two bad ones. It may look like he’s missing more bats, but we’ll talk about that later. The Pirates have been awful on the road (20.3 K-BB%) and vs LHP (23.4 K-BB%), but have only faced lefties 77 times (plate appearances) with a 21.1 HR/FB against them.

Tyson Ross is lucky he has an ERA and peripherals under 4.00 with a 15.2 BB% this year. He’s still throwing tons of sliders and missing bats and now has a 26.9 K% at home since the start of last season. The Astros have struck out more vs RHP than any other team, but have power that has played on the road. Ross has just a 5.0 HR/FB at Petco since the start of 2014 too.

Ubaldo Jimenez allowed runs for the first time in his last start. That will be the norm from now on. The White Sox aren’t the worst matchup for him, but most matchups will be tough in Baltimore. Chicago has struck out in 26.5% of plate appearances over the last week.

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2014 LG AVG – 20.3 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.18 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Archie Bradley has garnered a total of six swings and misses in 192 pitches in the two starts since his debut and has struck out just six of 49 batters in those efforts.

David Phelps induced just seven missed swings in 170 pitches in his two starts. He was a little bit better last year, but not much.

Hector Noesi had a 17.1 SwStr% in his first start, but did have a more than respectable 10.1% follow up. Those were his only two starts though.

J.A. Happ has consistently had a SwStr between 6.0% and 7.3% in each of his three starts, which isn’t impressive, but should lead to more than an 11.1 K%. His 7.2 SwStr% last year was his lowest in a full season.

Jered Weaver – The SwStr% has fallen far and been volatile in his four starts this year with two above 9% and two below 5.5%. He hasn’t had a SwStr below 8.5% since 2007. His K% will probably never be league average again and may not even reach his 19% mark of the last few years, but it should tick up a couple of notches.

Kyle Lohse has a near league average SwStr%, improving on an 8.1% mark last year that was his highest since 2006. He should be able to add a bit to his K% even if the SwStr drops down closer to his normal career levels. It looks like he’s completely abandoned the four seamer that he used just 6% of the time last year in favor or exactly that amount of an increase in changeups.

Mike Pelfrey – Here are his SwStr marks in his three starts: 13.8%, 1.1%, and 10.1%. He did face Kansas City in one of those, but not the one you think. I have no idea what to do with this, except expect a K rate at least a bit higher than 11.1%.

Ross Detwiler has one of the worst SwStr rates in the majors and it doesn’t much matter what his K% is next to it.

Sonny Gray – Out of nowhere, he got 13 swings and misses in his last start against the Angels. That opened a few eyes, including mine after a long stretch, going back to last year, of struggling to miss bats. That gives you some hope, but you’re not going to rely on it until he does it consistently, but right now you just want to see him keep it near league average.

Travis Wood – Considering that his SwStr was exactly 7.1% in his last two games and that’s exactly his career mark, I’m going to consider his 11.1 SwStr% in his first start and his current 25 K% that’s well above his career rate as total flukes.

Ubaldo Jimenez has gotten just six swings and misses over his last 161 pitches. Please do not buy into his K%.

ERA Estimators Chart (2014 LG AVG – 3.80 ERA – 3.72 SIERA – 3.80 xFIP – 3.80 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Anibal Sanchez has just a 63.6 LOB%, in part due to allowing five HRs (31 fly balls). He allowed them all bunched into two back to back starts and has been rather good on the bookends (his first and last start). Sanchez has never had a HR problem and, in fact, has a career 7.8 HR/FB, never allowing more than 20 in a season. I don’t see why he’d start now.

Archie Bradley has an abysmal 1.4 K-BB%, yet has ridden a 6.2 LD% to a .149 BABIP and 84.2 LOB%. He has a strong ground ball rate with 30 of his 43 batted balls being on the ground, but his plate discipline numbers only have opponents going out of the zone after his pitches 16% of the time. He really struggled in the minors last year it looks like he’s using magic to get by so far, though the ground balls will help him in that park. Expect a stark adjustment at some point.

Clayton Kershaw had a sub .400 BABIP for the first time in four starts his last time out against these same Giants. There’s nothing wrong with his bat missing skills, as his 27.5 K-BB% is the same as last year. A 28.1 LD% lies beneath a .393 BABIP. He’s allowed exactly four in every start and only stranded 66% of his runners. Then there’s the three HRs that make up his 21.4 HR/FB because he’s only allowed 14 fly balls. His other BABIP indicators are remarkable again with the 2nd best Z-Contact among qualified starters. He’ll be fine. He’ll be better than fine and even better than that probably. His xFIP is even better than last year.

David Phelps – All 18 of his fly balls have stayed in the yard and he hasn’t even started a game at home yet. He has a .216 BABIP despite a quarter of his batted balls being line drives, although he has induced three pop ups. His 1.9 K-BB% is not pretty.

J.A. Happ is stranding 83% of his runners and has a .265 BABIP despite a 29.4 LD% and no other positive indicators. Happ isn’t suddenly very good.

Jake Odorizzi is experiencing the opposite effect of what happened last year. His xFIP and SIERA are essentially the same as when he had a 4.13 ERA and his 13.7 K-BB% is even lower, though he is missing more bats. He had a respectable 8.7 HR/FB last year, but this season all 29 of his fly balls have stayed in the yard. His .169 BABIP has only been above .150 in one start this year and is no doubt assisted by his 16.9 LD%, though Tampa Bay’s team defense (.245 BABIP) has been exceptional.

Kyle Kendrick – If you’re counting on that 25.0 HR/FB normalizing, I wouldn’t in Colorado, but he should be able to cut it by close to half and maintain an ERA around five.

Kyle Lohse – It’s been ugly so far, but it seems fixable. Five of his 24 fly balls have been HRs, but his career rate is pretty much the league average rate and he’s been mostly below that in recent years. Then the other part of it is a 48.0 LOB%. And if his K% increases as expected, his estimators should drop even closer to between 3.50 – 3.70.

Michael Wacha has a very unimpressive 9.9 K-BB%, as he’s just not missing bats as expected. His .216 BABIP has some backbone with a 14.8 LD%, great Z-Contact%, and good team defense, but his 98.8 LOB% is screaming for some sharp regression.

Mike Pelfrey has held opponents to a 13.0 LD% and has a 61.1 GB%, so I’m not even going to complain much about the .250 BABIP. The 90.1 LOB% is what I will make some noise about, so: NOISE, NOISE, NOISE!

Ross Detwiler has a negative K-BB%. He’s been abysmal, but hopes to improve to simply terrible by meeting his ERA estimators.

Sonny Gray exhibits the peripherals of a pretty good pitcher, but not an Ace. His park will help him with some things, including a 3.2 HR/FB so far. He can’t sustain that, but something better than league average wouldn’t be too much of a surprise. The 14.6 LD% aids his .232 BABIP, but he doesn’t take advantage of his parks greatest defensive feature in inducing pop ups. The Oakland defense is a bit of a mystery. They’ve been good at limiting hits in play, but terrible via advanced metrics, so it remains to be seen the role they’ll play in his BABIP this year.

Ubaldo Jimenez – If you’re like me and don’t buy into the K%, then that would make the estimators even higher. What he has done is keep the ball on the ground though, so his two HRs actually make up a 28.6 HR/FB (seven fly balls). Twenty-four of his 35 batted balls have been on the ground and that leaves just four line drives. To that end, he’s earned some BABIP love, but we’ll talk about line drive rates and expectations a bit more below with Nate Karns and that applies here too. Even if every ball was a ground ball, without a line drive, we’d expect to him to have a BABIP about 100 points higher.

BABIP Chart (2014 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Tyson Ross – His batted ball rates are almost identical to what he did last year and the Z-Contact% is exceptional. The only thing that I can think of that might hurt his BABIP is his walk rate. If he can’t get ahead of batters as often, they’re likely to sit on the fastball and stay away from his devastating slider. It hasn’t hurt his K rate though.

Hector Noesi has more IFFBs (6) than LDs (4). That’s impressive, but maybe even more so is his 72.9 Z-Contact%. Nobody really earns a .231 BABIP, but this process is about as close as one would ever come. They’re not marks he can sustain, but it is something he’s done in two starts.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Anibal Sanchez – We know the Twins haven’t hit for much power or much of anything at all, especially against RHP. Sanchez’s other problem, the strand rate, should sort itself out over the course of a season. There are quite a few pitchers priced higher and he should match up very well with a lot of them.

Clayton Kershaw has only struck out fewer than nine in one of his four starts and has sent down 21 of his last 46 batters in that manner over which he’s walked only two.

Jake Odorizzi – I like portions of his game today, like the strikeouts, but even that’s been hit or miss so far, but I’m concerned about the long ball in this spot at Yankee Stadium. Due to the perceived performance being much better than last season (though with the same peripherals), the price has ascended to the point where he’s not terribly expensive, but may not be expected to give you too much value beyond what you pay for him.

Jeff Locke is my sneaky GPP pick today. He’s low priced and will likely be ignored by most players because he’s just Jeff Locke. He’s striking out a few more batters without many people noticing and the kicker here is that he actually had a 9.4 SwStr% with a well below average K% last year. Look at the K/BB and you’ll see the Cubs are no strangers to strikeouts. It’s risky because of the HR potential. If you can catch the weather, including wind direction tonight, that could make or break this play.

Johhny Cueto – There’s not really much I have to say about this one, right? He trails only Kershaw in price and expected total performance tonight.

Julio Teheran – I can’t help but think he’s going to figure it out. Maybe he won’t get back to what he was last year because he probably isn’t that good, but he should be able cut the walk and HR rates. The Nationals and their current funk are the real reason I’d consider him today though.

Kyle Kendrick – It’s not impossible that he can be worth the lowest price on the board against one of the worst offenses in the league outside of Arizona, so while I don’t ever expect him to pitch well, he might not get hammered and a cheapie hooked up with Kershaw and Cueto would help your offense in a GPP.

Kyle Lohse – I don’t trust him here, but wouldn’t hate taking a shot on his peripherals and SwStr% over his actual traditional stats in a decent spot here. The ceiling is limited though and you probably have better options if you want to take a risk.

Madison Bumgarner pitched well against the Dodgers the last time out. It may be different against them at home, where they’ve mauled opposing pitching, but people may see that and his price and move off him tonight. I’m not calling him the best option, but he’s probably a solid contrarian one. I was off in guessing on a lower ownership percentage on David Price last night, though.

Michael Wacha – You read me rip apart his ERA above and that’s all still true, but he’s facing the Phillies and in my mind, a mid-threes ERA pitcher against the Phillies is a borderline stud. The fact that they haven’t struck out much over the last week (13.7%) is the only thing that can be even a little concerning here.

Roberto Hernandez – I didn’t say a word about him today because there’s not much to say, but he hasn’t been terrible this year and you can give him the Kendrick treatment at the same price. Pair him with Kershaw and Cueto, pick up some offense, and hope Petco does the rest. You don’t even need him to be good.

Sonny Gray – I can’t think of many specific reasons to recommend him other than the Angels haven’t been that good. He should be fine for what you’re paying on most sites.

Travis Wood – Put him in that basket with Kendrick and Hernandez. I’m not buying him, but could consider him someone I’d throw in with the top pitchers at a rock bottom price in order to afford offense. This is more a bet against a bad Pittsburgh offense thus far.

Tyson Ross – Only a couple of pitchers feel “safe” tonight, if there is such a thing in daily fantasy baseball, but you can see why I’ve thrown darts with some bottom feeders today. Ross isn’t a bottom feeder, but there’s some real risk with his current walk rate and the power in the Houston lineup. They scored nine runs at Petco last night. Still, Petco should give him an advantage and he the one skill that has carried over is the strikeouts, which makes the Astros an ideal matchup for him in some ways… or at least one way.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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