Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, June 2nd
A couple of things need attention before we get started and one, which will likely become a very perturbing situation to daily fantasy players tonight, has started already. The pitcher portion of these charts is made up around 10pm the night before and is not a short process. If something needs to be changed, it takes a good 10 to 15 minutes because you can’t just pull one pitcher and plug another. You need to go through a good chunk of the process again. As a result, we’re usually sticking with whatever’s been announced by the time the last game ends the night before and that’s rarely a problem.
Last night, there were two situations where today’s starter was not announced. Milwaukee hinted at the debut of Tyler Cravy and that has worked out. The Rockies told us which two pitchers where going today in their double header with the Dodgers, but not in which order, so I gambled with a 50/50 change of being right. It probably doesn’t matter because you’re never using a Colorado pitcher in Colorado, but it now seems like I’ve guessed wrong (David Hale will start). It looks like the real issue that may frustrate players concerning this double header is that lineups may not be out for the 2nd game by the time rosters lock tonight. Anyway, on to what we can do know about today now.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | -4.4 | 3.62 | 6.34 | 2.02 | 0.87 | 4.04 | 1.72 | SFO | 103 | 108 | 110 | 20.6% | 7.5% | 19.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 12.2 | 4.19 | 6.18 | 1.41 | 1.05 | 3.88 | 4.3 | OAK | 95 | 110 | 94 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 7.3 | 4.25 | 5.58 | 1.56 | 1.01 | 3.92 | 3.44 | CHC | 98 | 114 | 85 | 20.6% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 2.6 | 4.12 | 6.1 | 1.42 | 0.91 | 4 | 4.38 | TAM | 95 | 120 | 105 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 23.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -8.4 | 2.94 | 5.91 | 1.81 | 1.04 | 2.87 | 2.69 | KAN | 109 | 105 | 57 | 22.4% | 5.9% | 20.3% | 9.5% | 6.2% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -9.5 | 3.71 | 6.26 | 1.48 | 0.85 | 3.56 | 3.74 | SEA | 102 | 115 | 79 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 21.7% | 16.0% | 9.7% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 11.1 | 3.62 | 5.93 | 1.51 | 0.91 | 3.55 | 2.11 | ANA | 109 | 91 | 142 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | -3.5 | 3.55 | 5.92 | 2.33 | 0.87 | 3.23 | 3.57 | PIT | 83 | 94 | 106 | 19.1% | 6.3% | 19.9% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | -6.7 | 3.83 | 6.05 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 3.89 | 3.97 | MIN | 72 | 86 | 94 | 18.2% | 6.1% | 21.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | -0.9 | 4.21 | 5.88 | 0.74 | 1.08 | 4.23 | 5.02 | CHW | 84 | 89 | 85 | 16.8% | 5.1% | 24.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -5.5 | 3.43 | 6.03 | 1.33 | 1.01 | 3.27 | 4.06 | BAL | 92 | 99 | 82 | 21.6% | 5.7% | 22.3% | 14.3% | 7.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -15.6 | 3.71 | 5.81 | 1.04 | 0.84 | 3.57 | 3.25 | NYM | 72 | 85 | 120 | 22.6% | 7.2% | 23.9% | 15.3% | 7.8% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -3.9 | 3.42 | 6.59 | 1.49 | 1.08 | 3.32 | 3.05 | TEX | 95 | 89 | 100 | 21.2% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 16.1 | 4.63 | 6.19 | 1.17 | 1.04 | 4.8 | 6.5 | CLE | 97 | 107 | 121 | 14.1% | 8.6% | 19.0% | 12.6% | 8.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 2 | 3.21 | 6.94 | 1.34 | 1.01 | 3.69 | 4.37 | PHI | 72 | 67 | 36 | 20.1% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 5.9% | 9.9% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -2.8 | 4.12 | 5.56 | 1.73 | 1.4 | 3.81 | 4.47 | LOS | 107 | 97 | 118 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 21.0% | 14.1% | 7.2% |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 1.5 | 4.15 | 5.98 | 0.9 | 1.09 | 3.94 | 4.68 | ATL | 84 | 95 | 75 | 17.6% | 6.5% | 21.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -11.5 | 4.39 | 4.67 | 2.14 | 1.05 | 4.26 | 3.44 | DET | 111 | 106 | 73 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 19.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 5.4 | 3.88 | 6.05 | 1.49 | 1.01 | 4.22 | 2.94 | FLA | 77 | 80 | 79 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 6.3 | 3.75 | 6.12 | 1.24 | 0.98 | 3.82 | 4.67 | MIL | 69 | 81 | 66 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 7.2 | 3.75 | 6. | 0.71 | 1.03 | 4.4 | 4.8 | WAS | 104 | 102 | 90 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 19.4% | 13.4% | 11.7% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -2.4 | 2.94 | 6.74 | 0.8 | 1.03 | 3.11 | 2.34 | TOR | 101 | 104 | 144 | 25.1% | 6.5% | 18.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | -9.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.85 | NYY | 93 | 96 | 77 | ||||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 1.2 | 4.68 | 5.52 | 1.54 | 1.07 | 4.84 | 2.94 | BOS | 102 | 93 | 81 | 15.0% | 7.4% | 20.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 4.9 | 3.99 | 6.37 | 1.25 | 1.01 | 5.07 | 4.74 | HOU | 98 | 101 | 116 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 19.8% | 11.0% | 21.4% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.3 | 3.51 | 6.05 | 1.07 | 0.84 | 3.95 | 2.74 | SDG | 89 | 86 | 60 | 22.2% | 5.4% | 17.2% | 6.4% | 11.3% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | -0.9 | 4.9 | 5.65 | 1.25 | 1.01 | 4.23 | 4.94 | CIN | 88 | 90 | 118 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 21.1% | 15.6% | 7.2% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -1 | 4.26 | 5.81 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 4.17 | 4.49 | ARI | 92 | 95 | 111 | 17.9% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | -1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.98 | STL | 112 | 104 | 102 | ||||||||
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 8.3 | 3.17 | 6.49 | 1.59 | 1.4 | 2.96 | 2.93 | COL | 87 | 94 | 86 | 22.4% | 5.7% | 20.9% | 12.5% | 13.6% |
A.J. Burnett had his worst start of the season by traditional metrics last time out, but he’s struck out 16 of his last 54 batters with only two walks over the last two weeks and has only allowed one HR since his first start. That’s a 25.9 K-BB%. The Giants have a good offense, but the park adjusts them below average. They have a 110 wRC+ over the last week, but just a 2.1 Hard-Soft% and 7.6 HR/FB at home overall this year. They seldom strike out at home (16.7%) and vs RHP (17.6%) though.
Brad Hand – The Cubs hit LHP well (114 wRC+, 9.5 BB%, 24.1 LD%), but have just a 7.6 HR/FB against them and Miami is not a very power friendly park. They also strike out a more than any other team on the road (25.7%), a good chunk vs LHP (23.2%), and at 27% over the last week. Brad Hand has just a 6.4 HR/FB at home since last year and hasn’t been entirely terrible when the Marlins have been forced to employ him as a spot starter over the last few years. He went five innings without allowing a run in the first of such last week.
Carlos Carrasco has peripherals in the chart above, rivaled only by Max Scherzer today and he’s finally put together strong back to back starts for the first time in over a month. He’s struck out at least seven in each of his last four starts and has a 19.9 K-BB% on the road since 2014, but also has a rough 16.9 Hard-Soft% this season. The Royals are everything that he isn’t: low strikeouts and weak contact. They’re a tough team at home and not bad vs RHP, but one of the coldest teams over the last week. They strike out just 13.4% at home and 16.3% vs RHP, but have a 25.8 K% over the last week.
C.C Sabathia has allowed at least three ERs in four of his last five starts, but his peripherals aren’t bad and he has a -3.1 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks. Leaving Yankee Stadium hasn’t solved his HR problem though, as he has a 17.1 HR/FB on the road since 2014 and 15.4 HR/FB over the last two calendar years. This provides our dilemma today. Safeco should be a tough park, but the Mariners have a 12.4 HR/FB at home and hit a major league best 15.5 Hard-Soft% overall. That drops to 13.2% vs LHP, but they have still hit southpaws very well with a 15.9 HR/FB that nearly matches their 17.4 K% against them. They haven’t been hitting well though, with a 30.1 K% over the last week. As always, check your umpire with CC. That may be difficult to do before game time, but an RG member has occasionally been posting a very useful umpire chart on the forum the last few days.
Chris Archer is doing exactly what this team needs him to in becoming the Ace of the staff. He’s coming off an amazing season high 12 Ks without a walk and has at least eight Ks in four of his last five starts now. Missing lots of bats and having a great defense behind you is a recipe for success. He’s had a few starts with control issues, walking four on three separate occasions, but has walked one or none in seven of his other eight starts, inspiring more confidence. The Angels are still a favorable matchup for a RHP, but have been tougher recently and come in as one of the hottest offenses in the majors with an 18.9 HR/FB and 15.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Chris Heston has been one of my favorites this year because he’s constantly under-valued as a guy that’s been league average, but finding good spots in a great park and the few times he wasn’t, it was easy enough to lay off, like when he’s pitched in Colorado twice and gotten hammered, giving us the extra benefit of keeping him somewhat of a hidden gem. He has a league average 13.1 K-BB% and misses just enough bats to relevant, but inducing 1.2% more soft contact than hard is what’s really topped off his results this year. He has a 4.3 HR/FB in at home in his career and has only allowed more than a single run once in five home starts this year. The Pirates have hit the ball well over the last week (18.6 Hard-Soft%), but have been below average on the road and vs RHP, with the park turning them into a favorable matchup.
Clay Buchholz has very consistent ERA estimators across the main chart above, but the rally odd thing is that as his results have turned around over the last couple of weeks, his peripherals have been as good to close the gap between them and his ERA even more. He’s struck out four or fewer in four of his last six starts now. The Twins are a terrible road offense though (22.8 K%, 7.0 HR/FB) and have just a 5.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP with a 22.1 K%.
Collin McHugh is set up for a neutral matchup in a neutral environment (it plays up for power, but not for overall run factor), but has a 3.27 xFIP and 19.2 K-BB% at home since 2014. The Ks have only been there at about a league average rate so far this season, but the O’s have struck out a higher than league average rate on the road, vs RHP, and over the last week and there’s some good news on that front later.
Ian Kennedy got hammered by the Pirates at home his last time out and even pitching in favorable parks hasn’t helped him avoid allowing 12 HRs in his last seven starts. HRs can be overlooked though, to some extent because we expect them to even out and if there are enough Ks, the benefits to your fantasy score might be worth the potential downside. You’re just looking for the right spots and this may be such a one. Kennedy’s 24.3 K% at home since last season matches the Mets’ 24.1 K% on the road. The Mets are one of the worst road offenses in baseball and may be without Lucas Duda tonight. That didn’t help Andrew Cashner much last night, but he also did have a ton of strikeouts, so maybe it did. The Mets do have a league high 26.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week though.
Jeff Samardzija has been pitching better in recent starts and has gone at least seven innings with three runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. He still hasn’t been the 1A they’ve been looking for to compliment Sale, but it’s a start and his 5.9 Hard-Soft% is actually limiting contact authority a bit better than he has throughout his career. The Rangers represent a very neutral park adjusted matchup here.
Johnny Cueto is just as good as last season by his underlying metrics, but has been a bit worse than usual in May. The difference has been in his contact authority rates. He had an elite -2.6 Hard-Soft% last season, which has fallen to a not so special 10.5% this season. His prime matchup keeps him in the elite category tonight. Instead of reciting all the ways the Phillies are awful, it would be easier to just tell you the one area they are not. They have just an 18.3 K% at home. They’re anywhere from bad to worst in the league in just about every other aspect that we’d generally look at today.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed just one ER over 16 innings in his last two starts, but that’s not the reason to like him tonight. He has a prime matchup against a Miami offense with a 7.0 HR/FB at home that compares favorably to his 6.8 HR/FB overall in his major league career. His 9.8 mark this year is probably closer to his true talent, but he’s in a great park tonight and doesn’t walk anyone. The Marlins have struck out 25.9% over the last week, but that’s one part of his game that you probably shouldn’t expect to excel tonight.
Lance Lynn walked four and allowed a HR in his last start, which are not things he usually does at home, where he has a 3.8 HR/FB since last season. He’ll attempt to rectify that against the worst road offense in baseball in an overall great matchup.
Marco Estrada has long standing HR issues, but actually has an excellent -1.7 Hard-Soft% this year. He’s still allowing HRs, but is otherwise limiting the hard contact. The Nationals hit HRs, but seem to be an overall neutral matchup here. Estrada’s strikeouts are down, but you’ll soon see why that might be more of an opportunity than a hindrance. He could also gain some additional benefit from the Nationals not putting out an optimal lineup in the 2nd game of a double header too.
Max Scherzer is matchup proof and probably still the top overall guy despite not having the greatest matchup. He may even get the benefit of a sub-optimal lineup in the 2nd game of a DH and Toronto loses the DH today. Oh, wow, so I guess DH can mean two things in baseball, but you smart readers know what I mean. Basically, Scherzer has been awesome and may have Toronto in a more favorable spot than the numbers tell today. He has double digits strikeouts in four of six starts and is only one eighth inning HR away from not having allowed more than two ERs in a start this season. He’s the odds on favorite for today’s top K%. He has an excellent 2.7 Hard-Soft% as well and has been dominant any way you look at it this season.
Mike Montgomery seems like he’s been floating around prospect land forever, so it surprised me that today will be his major league debut. He’s now on his 3rd organization and no longer generates much interest, but is generating a career high 21.8 K% at AAA. I say career high because it’s the fifth season he’s started at least nine games at this level. The Yankees lean left handed and have just a 3.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHPs this season. The park turns an otherwise neutral matchup into a very good one for his debut.
Noah Syndergaard has walked just a single batter over his last three starts without allowing a HR and now Petco turns an already favorable matchup into a prime one for him today. The Padres have a 24.2 K% with just a 6.3 HR/FB over the last week. Why didn’t the Padres try to upgrade this offense over the off-season?
Tyler Cravy is a 17th round draft pick in 2009 and has done extremely well to put himself in a position to reach the majors. He has occasionally shown high K rates in the minors, but not consistently and has also struggled with walks. He has a 4.5 FIP in just over 50 AAA innings and debuts in a tough environment tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Alfredo Simon (.277 – 79.2 LOB% – 6.3 HR/FB) – All these numbers are at least borderline on the sustainability front.
C.J. Wilson (.272 BABIP – 73.9 LOB% – 5.9 HR/FB) – And Tampa Bay has the 2nd best offense vs LHP.
Mike Pelfry (.275 BABIP – 79.7 LOB% – 7.5 HR/FB)
Mike Wright (.200 BABIP – 98.6 LOB% – 10.0 HR/FB)
Shelby Miller (.202 BABIP – 88.7 LOB% – 6.6 HR/FB) – I could discuss him at more length today, but would really just be looking for different ways to tell you these numbers are insane.
Zack Greinke (.220 BABIP – 90.6 LOB% – 7.7 HR/FB) – The main reason he finds himself here and not in the discussion today is Colorado though.
NO THANK YOU
Colby Lewis
Jeremy Guthrie
Josh Collmenter
Kendall Graveman
Sean O’Sullivan
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 21.9% | 9.2% | Road | 19.0% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 3.7% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.7% | 7.1% | Home | 16.0% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Brad Hand | Marlins | 14.9% | 7.7% | Home | 15.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 3.5% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 19.8% | 9.7% | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 13.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 24.4% | 6.0% | Road | 25.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 5.9% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 20.0% | 6.7% | Road | 20.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 4.8% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 22.1% | 8.1% | Road | 22.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 7.7% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 18.7% | 6.4% | Home | 18.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 5.6% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.2% | 7.0% | Home | 18.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.7% | 6.2% | Home | 18.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 2.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.9% | 5.7% | Home | 25.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 1.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.0% | 8.7% | Home | 24.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 4.4% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 21.8% | 6.1% | Road | 22.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 3.5% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 12.7% | 6.1% | Home | 11.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 12.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 24.2% | 6.2% | Road | 21.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 3.3% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.0% | 9.0% | Home | 18.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 16.5% | 5.9% | Home | 15.5% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 13.9% | 8.6% | Road | 17.9% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 16.5% | 4.9% | Road | 14.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 3.6% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.0% | 8.4% | Home | 20.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 21.4% | 6.8% | Road | 19.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.2% | 6.4% | Home | 27.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 3.6% |
| Mike Montgomery | Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 14.1% | 9.0% | Road | 9.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 2.1% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 16.4% | 4.1% | Road | 14.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 21.8% | 5.0% | Road | 21.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 11.7% | 7.6% | Home | 14.8% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 3.9% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.7% | 8.8% | Road | 18.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 3.9% |
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 23.5% | 5.8% | Road | 23.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 5.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 16.7% | 8.0% | RH | 17.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.9% | RH | 17.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.4% | 5.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 25.7% | 8.2% | LH | 23.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 7.9% |
| Rays | Road | 20.7% | 7.7% | LH | 22.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 5.3% |
| Royals | Home | 13.4% | 6.0% | RH | 16.3% | 5.4% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.6% | 7.8% | LH | 17.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 30.1% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Home | 19.3% | 7.5% | RH | 19.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.8% | 6.4% | RH | 19.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Road | 22.8% | 7.1% | RH | 22.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 13.0% | 4.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 18.5% | 5.6% | RH | 19.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 4.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.2% | 7.6% | RH | 22.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.8% |
| Mets | Road | 24.1% | 5.9% | RH | 20.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.4% | 8.3% | RH | 20.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.2% | 6.3% |
| Indians | Road | 17.0% | 9.0% | RH | 18.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.3% | 6.6% | RH | 20.0% | 5.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 2.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.9% | 10.6% | LH | 20.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.5% |
| Braves | Road | 18.0% | 7.4% | RH | 16.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 6.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.6% | 8.6% | RH | 19.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.5% | 11.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.8% | 6.3% | RH | 20.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.9% | 3.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.0% | 5.6% | RH | 21.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.0% | 4.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.1% | 8.8% | RH | 20.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.5% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.7% | 7.9% | RH | 20.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.4% | 8.3% | LH | 18.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 8.8% | RH | 16.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 14.0% | 8.6% |
| Astros | Home | 25.5% | 9.2% | RH | 25.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.5% |
| Padres | Home | 22.5% | 6.2% | RH | 21.7% | 6.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.9% |
| Reds | Road | 19.5% | 7.7% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 19.5% | 7.9% | RH | 19.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.0% | 9.2% | RH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 16.9% | 6.7% | RH | 19.7% | 5.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 5.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.3% | 9.9% | 5.8% | Road | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 21.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | Home | 21.4% | 12.5% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Brad Hand | Marlins | 20.0% | 7.7% | 3.9% | Home | 18.9% | 6.4% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 22.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | Home | 21.5% | 6.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 20.2% | 7.5% | 3.8% | Road | 20.4% | 8.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 21.8% | 15.4% | 8.8% | Road | 18.1% | 17.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 21.0% | 8.9% | 11.0% | Road | 20.2% | 6.5% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 22.7% | 12.5% | 16.7% | Home | 18.8% | 4.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | Home | 22.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 22.0% | 9.3% | 10.2% | Home | 20.9% | 9.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 23.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | Home | 23.8% | 11.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 22.6% | 12.2% | 8.9% | Home | 22.6% | 15.1% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.9% | 11.6% | 8.9% | Road | 21.9% | 10.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 22.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | Home | 21.2% | 8.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 6.9% | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 20.9% | 11.0% | 10.7% | Road | 22.4% | 7.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 20.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | Home | 19.2% | 12.4% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 22.2% | 8.7% | 12.4% | Home | 21.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 22.1% | 14.3% | 7.1% | Road | 20.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.2% | 6.8% | 12.9% | Road | 18.0% | 5.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 21.4% | 7.3% | 10.8% | Home | 18.4% | 3.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 18.0% | 12.1% | 14.1% | Road | 16.0% | 15.2% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.3% | 21.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | Home | 20.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Mike Montgomery | Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.2% | 8.7% | 12.5% | Road | 15.1% | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 19.6% | 10.0% | 20.0% | Road | 15.8% | 0.0% | 42.9% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 19.4% | 3.6% | 17.9% | Road | 16.7% | 7.1% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 18.7% | 13.5% | 6.7% | Home | 20.4% | 14.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 29.4% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 19.3% | 10.1% | 11.5% | Road | 17.1% | 12.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 22.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | Road | 21.2% | 7.6% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 27.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | RH | 21.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 15.5% | 12.9% | 8.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.0% | 11.7% | 8.9% | RH | 21.4% | 10.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.4% | 13.5% | 9.2% | LH | 24.1% | 7.6% | 3.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 11.6% | 7.0% |
| Rays | Road | 21.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | LH | 22.1% | 12.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| Royals | Home | 22.4% | 7.2% | 9.9% | RH | 23.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 16.1% | 9.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.8% | 12.4% | 7.3% | LH | 17.4% | 15.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 12.7% | 14.5% |
| Angels | Home | 22.8% | 11.7% | 10.5% | RH | 20.1% | 11.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | RH | 21.8% | 10.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.5% | 1.7% |
| Twins | Road | 20.5% | 7.0% | 13.4% | RH | 22.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.1% | 7.4% | 12.8% | RH | 22.6% | 9.0% | 12.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 19.9% | 11.7% | 8.0% | RH | 21.7% | 14.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 14.1% | 3.1% |
| Mets | Road | 24.7% | 9.1% | 11.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.1% | 12.3% | L7Days | 27.2% | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | RH | 16.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Indians | Road | 20.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | RH | 21.1% | 11.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 12.9% | 8.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | RH | 22.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.0% | 2.9% | 5.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.2% | 15.7% | 9.2% | LH | 22.9% | 10.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Braves | Road | 22.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | RH | 23.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.5% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | RH | 21.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 7.0% | 10.7% | RH | 21.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 18.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | RH | 20.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.2% | 16.0% | 8.9% | RH | 20.5% | 14.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.7% | 17.2% | 3.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.3% | 10.7% | 13.6% | RH | 17.8% | 12.6% | 13.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 12.3% | 8.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | LH | 16.8% | 10.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.7% | 12.0% | 11.5% | RH | 20.1% | 10.4% | 14.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Astros | Home | 18.4% | 18.1% | 12.3% | RH | 22.4% | 14.7% | 13.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 9.1% | 11.4% |
| Padres | Home | 18.6% | 10.9% | 6.8% | RH | 18.6% | 10.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Reds | Road | 21.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | RH | 21.2% | 12.2% | 10.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.0% | 11.6% | 8.7% | RH | 21.1% | 11.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.7% | 16.1% | 3.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | RH | 22.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 9.1% | 11.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.2% | 11.3% | 8.6% | RH | 22.0% | 15.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.4% | 21.8% | 12.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.58 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 2.41 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 16.1% | 7.6% | 2.12 | 15.6% | 7.2% | 2.17 |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 17.2% | 8.6% | 2.00 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 1.88 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 18.3% | 8.2% | 2.23 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.00 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 28.2% | 12.0% | 2.35 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 2.46 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.6% | 8.3% | 2.36 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 2.64 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 30.7% | 12.2% | 2.52 | 30.8% | 10.9% | 2.83 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.28 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 2.39 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 24.1% | 11.3% | 2.13 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.75 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 18.6% | 7.5% | 2.48 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 2.57 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 19.6% | 10.9% | 1.80 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 1.64 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 21.4% | 11.2% | 1.91 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 2.18 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 18.7% | 9.5% | 1.97 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 2.06 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 8.6% | 5.6% | 1.54 | 7.4% | 5.8% | 1.28 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 23.5% | 10.3% | 2.28 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.09 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 24.0% | 12.3% | 1.95 | 23.1% | 11.5% | 2.01 |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 11.9% | 7.3% | 1.63 | 11.5% | 8.0% | 1.44 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.03 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 2.74 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 19.3% | 6.2% | 3.11 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 2.61 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 25.8% | 10.0% | 2.58 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 2.12 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 19.9% | 11.8% | 1.69 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 1.66 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 30.4% | 13.9% | 2.19 | 32.9% | 14.9% | 2.21 |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.9% | 5.4% | 2.20 | 9.1% | 3.8% | 2.39 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 16.4% | 5.6% | 2.93 | 16.4% | 5.6% | 2.93 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 21.8% | 6.8% | 3.21 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 3.21 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 12.3% | 5.6% | 2.20 | 11.3% | 4.8% | 2.35 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 19.1% | 9.0% | 2.12 | 18.8% | 9.9% | 1.90 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | ||||||
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 22.7% | 10.6% | 2.14 | 24.2% | 11.5% | 2.10 |
A.J. Burnett – We talked about how Cervelli grades out at the top pitch framer this season last week and that’s still true (+8.0 RAA), but Burnett has had a double digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts.
Collin McHugh may not be finishing the job as often, but the good news is that he’s missing bats at the same rate (11.0 SwStr% last year). Both Castro and Conger are among the better framers in the league too, so the catching probably isn’t hurting him.
Chris Archer has only had three of 11 starts with a sub double digit SwStr% and never lower than 7.3%, but two of those have come in his last three starts and it might be a bit much to expect him to sustain a 30% strikeout rate, but he’s not far off and it wouldn’t be shocking with his stuff.
Kyle Hendricks is someone we’ve been skeptical of this season and we’re now seeing a break in his K% over the last month to below league average. Montero is a solid framer (3.3 RAA this year), but you just can’t expect much on such a low SwStr%.
Marco Estrada has the best SwStr% of his career, so I’d not worry about the drop in K% at all and would expect it to return to at least his career 22.6% mark. His below average K% may actually represent opportunity at a low cost today.
Noah Syndergaard has not had a league average SwStr% in any start yet and bottomed out at 5.0% in his last start. The stuff is there, but this seems to be the one concerning thing about his major league efforts so far.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 1.81 | 3.31 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 1.39 | 2.69 | 0.88 | 2.14 | 3.17 | 1.03 | 3.01 | 0.87 | 2.56 | 0.42 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 2.67 | 4.39 | 1.72 | 4.2 | 1.53 | 3.56 | 0.89 | 2.1 | 4.94 | 2.84 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 3.95 | 1.85 |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 4.5 | 3.46 | -1.04 | 3.41 | -1.09 | 2.31 | -2.19 | 5.06 | 3.46 | -1.6 | 3.22 | -1.84 | 2.34 | -2.72 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 3.18 | 4.19 | 1.01 | 4.17 | 0.99 | 3.49 | 0.31 | 3.66 | 3.96 | 0.3 | 3.88 | 0.22 | 3.91 | 0.25 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 4.24 | 2.75 | -1.49 | 2.65 | -1.59 | 2.66 | -1.58 | 3.79 | 2.95 | -0.84 | 2.87 | -0.92 | 2.7 | -1.09 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.67 | 3.61 | -2.06 | 3.57 | -2.1 | 4.2 | -1.47 | 5.97 | 3.55 | -2.42 | 3.38 | -2.59 | 4.18 | -1.79 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.12 | 2.65 | 0.53 | 2.56 | 0.44 | 2.42 | 0.3 | 3.28 | 2.98 | -0.3 | 2.73 | -0.55 | 2.48 | -0.8 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.82 | 3.47 | -0.35 | 3.36 | -0.46 | 3.6 | -0.22 | 5.28 | 3.72 | -1.56 | 3.53 | -1.75 | 4.16 | -1.12 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 4.33 | 3.19 | -1.14 | 3.15 | -1.18 | 3.06 | -1.27 | 3.31 | 3.51 | 0.2 | 3.42 | 0.11 | 3.41 | 0.1 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.7 | 4.17 | -0.53 | 4.42 | -0.28 | 3.72 | -0.98 | 6.44 | 4.17 | -2.27 | 4.46 | -1.98 | 3.78 | -2.66 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.24 | 3.52 | -0.72 | 3.56 | -0.68 | 3.85 | -0.39 | 5.08 | 3.9 | -1.18 | 4.08 | -1 | 5.2 | 0.12 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 7.15 | 3.9 | -3.25 | 4.06 | -3.09 | 6.5 | -0.65 | 7.18 | 3.69 | -3.49 | 3.95 | -3.23 | 5.75 | -1.43 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 3.84 | 3.85 | 0.01 | 3.8 | -0.04 | 3.51 | -0.33 | 3 | 3.51 | 0.51 | 3.46 | 0.46 | 2.98 | -0.02 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 6.7 | 5.49 | -1.21 | 5.44 | -1.26 | 5.97 | -0.73 | 7.46 | 5.54 | -1.92 | 5.78 | -1.68 | 6.01 | -1.45 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 3.03 | 3.27 | 0.24 | 3.3 | 0.27 | 3.29 | 0.26 | 4.45 | 3.93 | -0.52 | 3.72 | -0.73 | 4.12 | -0.33 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 6.51 | 3.81 | -2.7 | 3.5 | -3.01 | 3.42 | -3.09 | 4.79 | 4.01 | -0.78 | 3.69 | -1.1 | 3.43 | -1.36 |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 5.05 | 4.69 | -0.36 | 4.45 | -0.6 | 4.6 | -0.45 | 8.14 | 5.31 | -2.83 | 5.31 | -2.83 | 7.04 | -1.1 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 5.79 | 4.86 | -0.93 | 5.06 | -0.73 | 5.56 | -0.23 | 2.31 | 3.44 | 1.13 | 3.75 | 1.44 | 3.78 | 1.47 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.76 | 3.63 | -0.13 | 3.75 | -0.01 | 3.63 | -0.13 | 2.81 | 3.98 | 1.17 | 4.06 | 1.25 | 3.88 | 1.07 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.41 | 3.4 | -0.01 | 3.36 | -0.05 | 3.04 | -0.37 | 3.73 | 3.94 | 0.21 | 3.89 | 0.16 | 4.02 | 0.29 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.89 | 4.08 | 0.19 | 4.43 | 0.54 | 4.62 | 0.73 | 5.02 | 4.37 | -0.65 | 4.62 | -0.4 | 4.87 | -0.15 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1.51 | 2.53 | 1.02 | 2.87 | 1.36 | 1.77 | 0.26 | 1.75 | 2.31 | 0.56 | 2.6 | 0.85 | 1.68 | -0.07 |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | ||||||||||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.77 | 4.43 | 1.66 | 4.5 | 1.73 | 4.17 | 1.4 | 3.21 | 4.47 | 1.26 | 4.44 | 1.23 | 3.95 | 0.74 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 1.4 | 3.98 | 2.58 | 3.93 | 2.53 | 3.82 | 2.42 | 1.4 | 3.99 | 2.59 | 3.93 | 2.53 | 3.82 | 2.42 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.55 | 3.5 | 0.95 | 3.64 | 1.09 | 2.57 | 0.02 | 2.55 | 3.51 | 0.96 | 3.64 | 1.09 | 2.57 | 0.02 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 4.81 | 4.61 | -0.2 | 4.81 | 0 | 6.57 | 1.76 | 4.76 | 4.81 | 0.05 | 4.85 | 0.09 | 6.49 | 1.73 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 1.48 | 3.9 | 2.42 | 3.85 | 2.37 | 3.35 | 1.87 | 0.95 | 3.69 | 2.74 | 3.8 | 2.85 | 2.7 | 1.75 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | ||||||||||||||
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.48 | 3.41 | 1.93 | 3.44 | 1.96 | 3.05 | 1.57 | 1.05 | 3.3 | 2.25 | 3.42 | 2.37 | 3.12 | 2.07 |
A.J. Burnett – You knew regression was coming, but he still has some fine peripherals. Burnett has a 4.8 HR/FB and though this will be his seventh road start of his 11, he’s getting some very favorable parks, last time in San Diego and now in San Francisco. Both of his HRs this season were served up to the Reds, but he has a 30.7 Hard% that isn’t much below his rate last year. Both the HR/FB and his 83.6 LOB% are expected to regress a bit more.
Brad Hand has done most of his work out of the bullpen with a slightly elevated BABIP, but just a 60% strand rate. None of his 22 fly balls have left the park yet. Some eventually will, but he’s in a great park.
Carlos Carrasco has gotten his BABIP down to what you’d consider a respectable .336 with the Cleveland defense behind him. That’s not going to change. He does have an average LD%, but his 32.5 Hard% is probably not helping his overall results and his 67.7 LOB% is a little low, but not disastrous. He might have too much noise going on around and behind him to reach his estimators, but lopping a run off that ERA with a 22.6 K-BB% and league average HR rate doesn’t sound like asking for too much and may still make him under-valued.
C.C. Sabathia has an elevated BABIP, but it doesn’t seem that batters are hitting the ball particularly hard against him, nor does he have a high LD rate (20.2%). His indicators and defense in the chart below are just slightly below average, but he profiles much closer to .300 than he’s been. The 15.4 HR/FB is an issue and even leaving his tough home park hasn’t helped much, as we’ve discussed, but the AL East is full of tough parks and not many like Safeco tonight. In addition, his 64.4 LOB% is very likely to improve.
Chris Heston – He had back to back rough starts in Cincinnati and then in Colorado where he gave up three HRs, along with his lone ugly start at home about a month ago. His other two starts over the last month, including his last time out were excellent. All of that left him with a 14.8 HR/FB in May, which we don’t expect him to come close to sustaining. Four of his six HRs for the season came in Colorado.
Clay Buchholz had a gap well over two runs just a few weeks ago. His BABIP has regressed with his K%, but still remains a bit high. He still doesn’t have a pop up yet though, and that would help. His 66.2 LOB% is in line for some improvement too, though he’s been at least 70% in each of his last four starts.
Ian Kennedy has not been good this year, but how the hell do you sustain a 27.9 HR/FB, especially in Petco? His 13.3 K-BB% is perfectly serviceable. The additional problem is a league average walk rate, allowing the HRs to hurt him even more, leading to a 67.9 LOB%. It has to get better, unless he’s hurt, and even then, it should improve. I don’t even think major leaguers have a 27.9 HR/FB in batting practice.
Max Scherzer – Maybe the one area you can’t expect him to maintain his excellence is in a 3.6 HR/FB. His 46.9% fly ball rate is the highest of his career too. That, his 13.1 IFFB%, and 80.6 Z-Contact% won’t make you worry too much about a BABIP so much lower than his team’s allowed rate.
Noah Syndergaard allowed a HR to Chris Coughlan in his first start in Chicago and then none since. A league average HR/FB would give him a three and a half ERA, but we should probably start to keep an eye on his K rate due to the SwStr% and see if that doesn’t eventually damper the situation more.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 0.303 | 0.305 | 0.002 | 7.1% | 91.5% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.286 | 0.277 | -0.009 | 9.5% | 88.5% |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 0.296 | 0.322 | 0.026 | 4.5% | 88.1% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 0.272 | 0.272 | 0 | 13.2% | 89.5% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.319 | 0.336 | 0.017 | 2.2% | 86.2% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.302 | 0.344 | 0.042 | 9.2% | 89.9% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.264 | 0.270 | 0.006 | 6.8% | 82.9% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.279 | 0.305 | 0.026 | 17.8% | 88.2% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.298 | 0.333 | 0.035 | 0.0% | 85.5% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.294 | 0.307 | 0.013 | 10.6% | 89.7% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.281 | 0.317 | 0.036 | 6.6% | 83.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.307 | 0.299 | -0.008 | 9.3% | 84.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.312 | 0.305 | -0.007 | 7.6% | 89.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 0.266 | 0.320 | 0.054 | 7.7% | 90.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.281 | 0.253 | -0.028 | 10.8% | 85.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.310 | 0.346 | 0.036 | 0.0% | 82.1% |
| Josh Collmenter | ARI | 0.301 | 0.311 | 0.01 | 13.0% | 90.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.282 | 0.316 | 0.034 | 7.4% | 92.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.291 | 0.289 | -0.002 | 9.8% | 91.7% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.290 | 0.337 | 0.047 | 10.0% | 84.2% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.283 | 0.252 | -0.031 | 16.0% | 78.7% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.319 | 0.278 | -0.041 | 13.1% | 80.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | SEA | 0.286 | ||||
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.299 | 0.275 | -0.024 | 10.0% | 93.6% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 0.284 | 0.200 | -0.084 | 20.0% | 90.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.285 | 0.292 | 0.007 | 17.9% | 91.3% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 0.303 | 0.252 | -0.051 | 4.9% | 91.6% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.288 | 0.202 | -0.086 | 8.2% | 86.8% |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 0.307 | ||||
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.293 | 0.220 | -0.073 | 10.8% | 85.1% |
Colin McHugh has a BABIP 58 points higher than last year despite a significant drop in his LD rate (24.1% to 20.4%) that’s shown up almost entirely in his GB%. His Z-Contact% is still great, but his IFFB% has fallen, but that shouldn’t mean anywhere close to 58 points in his BABIP. The real answer is that his true talent probably lies somewhere in between last year and this year, but with a defense that uses a lot of shifts and been successful in limiting BABIP to .281, you might expect to see some improvement this year.
Lance Lynn does have a .308 career BABIP, so maybe last year (.290) was the outlier. None of his batted ball numbers are far off from career rates, but he does have a good zone contact rate, so we should probably expect something a closer to his career rate, which means about 30 points less.
Marco Estrada generates some elite markers in terms of IFFB% and Zone Contact%. His BABIP career BABIP is .275. With a good defense, this is fine.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
A.J. Burnett – I’m really wavering on him today because he’s in a great park, but against a formidable offense at a high price. I’m having trouble seeing any excess value there as there still seems to be some regression eminent in his numbers. There are some cheaper with more upside, but very few stable choices today with good matchups, so I don’t hate him, but probably won’t be using him myself in many lineups.
Brad Hand – Dumpster Dive Special here because he’s been not entirely useless for the Marlins as a spot starter and is in a good spot against a high strikeout offense tonight in an environment that should play down their power. There’s not a lot of upside, but he could be ok for five or six innings.
Carlos Carrasco – has strung a couple of good starts together and we know he has the talent. The Royals are a tough daily fantasy matchup, but have been striking out lately. While Carrasco isn’t cheap, he’s cheaper than Burnett and solidly in the 2nd tier today. He did strike out six Royals in his first start against them, which isn’t his normal fare, but isn’t nothing either.
C.C. Sabathia – is someone I may throw in a lineup or two if the umpiring information turns out to be extremely favorable. There are some sites where he’s not cheap, but a few where his underlying numbers are currently under-valued.
Chris Archer is someone I value similarly to Carrasco today for different reasons. I’d probably slightly favor whoever was the cheaper of the two on any given site. There’s a lot of upside here as he’s been fantastic and about a week or two ago, I’d love this matchup, but as he’s continued to get better this season, the Angels have improved recently also. It’s now closer to a neutral spot where it would have been much more favorable not too long ago, but he has the talent to return some value tonight.
Chris Heston – I believe I’ve been using him in every home start over the last month and just once has it been a bad decision. There will probably be additional times that happens in the future, but at his current low cost, there’s little reason to change the status quo now: average pitcher in a great environment continually returns good value.
Collin McHugh has seen his price tag drop to the mid-range due to a perceived lack of success this season, but there’s still the same upside in his K% due to his SwStr% and the free swinging O’s are decent bets to help him achieve that today. The risk is that they do have power, so I’d probably keep him to GPP lineups tonight.
Ian Kennedy is another pitcher you obviously don’t trust in double ups, but the strikeout rate is fine and that HR rate has to regress a lot. The Mets broke out without Duda last night, mostly due to Murphy, but there’s a lot of upside in his cost, especially if the big guy can’t go again tonight.
Johnny Cueto – You might have adequate reason to avoid him at his current price that keeps him as the 2nd most expensive pitcher today (close to Greinke behind Scherzer), but the reason he still costs this much is probably because he has the top matchup in the majors tonight. The Phillies have gotten a lot of teams and pitchers better this year.
Kyle Hendricks is one of just a couple of pitchers still here despite not liking his upside and expecting regression in his K-rate, but the matchup and spot are just really good at an acceptable price. I may not expect him to strike out many batters, but he has a reasonable floor here just by refraining from walks and keeping the ball in the park, both of which he should do a fine job of.
Max Scherzer is the top price on the board and the matchup doesn’t immediately look great, but it may be weakened by the 2nd game of a double header and the loss of the DH. He’s been dominant in just about every start this year and is matchup proof. He’s the top expected overall performer tonight and a reasonable value considering price tag as well.
Mike Montgomery – I don’t have any of his price tags in front of me right now, but assuming he’s close to the site minimum everywhere, it’s not a terrible spot he’s debuting in as a lefty against a left handed lineup in a great park. There’s a little bit of upside here, but his prospect status has long since disappeared.
Noah Syndergaard – the SwStr% has begun to be concerning and nobody has mentioned it that I know of, but he’s in an otherwise strong spot tonight and begin getting those swings and misses at any time. The price is rising on some sites, but where it hasn’t much yet, he’s still in a position to return good value.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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