Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, May 12th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-05-14 17:43:49

Tuesday may have more pitchers than Monday, but not necessarily better ones. Two of your potentially better choices are removed from most games right off the bat with Cleveland doing that where they start an hour early again. On the brighter side, a top pitching prospect makes his debut on Tuesday night.

Before getting to the meat of our sandwich, just a reminder that the new Hard% and Soft% (and Hard-Soft% or H-S% for short) seems to correlate less with BABIP and more with stats like wRC+ and overall production because singles aren’t equal to HRs anywhere else except batting average. That’s how we’ll continue to try to use that information from now on.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

A.J. Burnett makes his return to Philadelphia after a season he would like to forget last year. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last five starts and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start this season. He’s been good, but not that good. He also has the lowest SwStr% of his career. The Phillies are terrible at home, vs RHP, and at impacting the baseball in general (1.6 team Hard-Soft%), remaining the day’s top matchup.

Alfredo Simon is coming off back to back rough road starts after a solid April for the most part. His ERA sits as an exact replica to his 3.44 last year. Are these the same tricks he showed us last year? We’ll explore more below. Minnesota is the 2nd worst road offense, with a 4.5 HR/FB, and strike out 23.5% vs RHP.

Anthony DeSclafani has been pretty awful lately. He’s walked nine of his last 49 batters and now has just an 8.1 K-BB% on the season. The Braves have just a 15.3 K% vs RHP.

C.J. Wilson has allowed two ERs or fewer in five of his six starts and more importantly hasn’t walked more than one in four of those. That’s even more important to any success he may have with a waning strikeout rate, putting his K-BB at 10.5%. The defense is really helping him out as well, especially in the BABIP department (see BABIP Chart below). Colorado has not done well against LHP, striking out 23.5% of the time against them. They do impact the baseball harder than any other team though (17.3 H-S%), a mark that’s surprisingly even higher on the road (19.4%), though closer to league average (12.4%) vs LHP.

Chris Archer has fallen apart over his last two starts, walking eight and allowing nine ERs over 9.1 IP. The good news is that he’s still missing bats at an elite rate and has the 4th best K% (29.9) in the majors. He desperately needs to find that strike zone again though, because the Yankees will be patient and wait him out and have a 14.1 HR/FB vs RHP.

Chris Heston has become a little bit of a sleeper for me, flying under the radar out there in San Francisco, but had his first bad start outside of Colorado last time out at home against the Padres. Even so, he sustains a respectable 11.9 K-BB% and has a great 0.0 H-S% with the 10th lowest hit hard rate (21.7%) in the majors. He faces the coldest bats in the majors, who have struck out 26.2% at home, 24.5% vs RHP, and 26.8% over the last week.

Chris Sale is struggling right now and may be better than his present ERA, but definitely hasn’t been as good as we’ve come to expect from him, though he still maintains an elite -1.2 H-S%. Five walks really hurt him in his last start, but were likely just a freak thing. Milwaukee has been more competent overall lately and lean RH, but have the 3rd worst offense vs LHP with an 18.3 K-BB%, though a 14.8 HR/FB. They’ve homered on 20% of their fly balls over the last week.

Collin McHugh is coming off his strongest start in a few weeks against the Angels. I’m not sure anybody really expected a repeat of his breakout last year, but he’s been very good with a 16.7 K-BB% that represents just a small drop off. He does have a slightly concerning 32.2 Hard%, which has led to a rise in his HR/FB to 13.5 early on. The Giants have struck out in just 14.9% of their plate appearances over the last week and just 17.2% vs RHP this year.

Dan Haren faces the mighty righty smashers in Dodgerland, though Tom Koehler fared well against them last night. He’s held the opposition to two runs or fewer in five of his six starts, but no. You’ll find out why later. The Dodgers wRC+, BB%, and HR/FB across all charts remain simply awesome. They are the worst park adjusted matchup of the day (adding all wRC+ then multiplying by park factor), even in a pitcher’s park.

Drew Pomeranz had an encouraging quality start to open his season and has been a big ball of yuck ever since. He probably hasn’t been that bad as you’ll see in the ERA chart and he’s only stranding 54.7% of his runners, but it hasn’t been good either. Maybe a matchup with a Boston offense that hasn’t done much at home will help, though they do have a 13.0 BB% and 14.7 HR/FB vs LHP.

Edinson Volquez had his first real blowup in a Kansas City uniform, walking six Cleveland hitters and has not registered a softly hit ball in either of his last two outings (48.2 H-S%). The Rangers have been better, but are still the 2nd worst offense vs RHP with just a 15.6 LD%.

Ian Kennedy is coming off two solid outings in a row and didn’t even allow a HR in his last one (five in the two prior). Adding his H-S% (18.0) to Seattle’s this season (16.6%) gives you largest rate of the day (34.6%), so even at Safeco, don’t be surprised if there are some hard hit balls. Kennedy will try to temper that with a strong K rate and does have just a 5.5 HR/FB on the road since the start of last season, while the Mariners have just a 4.2 HR/FB over the last week. It’s worth remarking that the San Diego defense has been the worst in the league, so he better be striking batters out.

Jake Arrieta has the day’s lowest combined estimators and highest K-BB (15.8%) in today’s main chart. Early on, I was a bit concerned about his inability to miss bats at nearly last year’s rate and while that’s improved a bit, there are still issues we’ll talk about later. However, his -5.7 H-S% is best of the day’s qualified starts and he is top five in the majors in both Hard and Soft%, so his slider is still good for something. The Mets offense has been below average in basically every aspect.

James Paxton has been pitching better recently, but has walked eight of his last 80 batters. San Diego impacts the baseball with the 4th best Hard-Soft% (13.4) in the majors, but has really been mediocre offensively and has just a 3.6 HR/FB vs LHP, though Paxton has a 12.8 HR/FB at Safeco since the start of last season.

Justin Masterson has the day’s highest combined estimators and lowest K-BB (6.4%) in today’s main chart. He walked six of 24 batters in his last start and has a 3.3 K-BB% on the season with his velocity continuing to free fall. He does still possess the ability to induce weak contact though (3.8 H-S% this season)

Kyle Gibson hasn’t allowed a run over 14 IP in his last two starts, but that’s a lot of BABIP magic with just five strikeouts. A 2.3 H-S% in those outings bears out some weak contact though. The Tigers have just a 5.9 HR/FB at home and major league low 3.9 HR/FB over the last week.

Kyle Kendrick has allowed at least two HRs in four of his last five starts, three of which have been on the road. His 43.2 Hard% is worst in the league among qualified starters, but not even worst of the day. The Angels don’t hit RHP, but I suspect one Mr. Trout to potentially be the top owned batter of the day.

Mike Bolsinger pitched well in his first spot start for the Dodgers in April and has a 38.4 K% in 19 AAA innings this season. He had some issues with hard hit balls and a 15.9 HR/FB with the Diamondbacks last year, but had a respectable 13.0 K-BB%, so maybe getting out of the desert will help him. Perhaps we’re looking at a cheap source of Ks tonight as the Marlins will strike out.

Mike Fiers would have the highest hard hit rate in the majors at 50% if he had a few more inningsn to qualify. I was vocal about not being a believer last year, but the reason for that was what I thought was an unsustainable strikeout rate which is really the only thing he has continued to do well. The White Sox have been hitting the ball well over the last week, including just a 12.1 K% and 14.0 HR/FB.

Mike Foltynewicz has issues with control that have followed him to the majors with a 12.1 BB% through two starts and that could be trouble against a Cincinnati team with a 23.8 K% at home, but a 16.7 HR/FB. They have a 14.1 HR/FB vs RHP.

Nathan Eovaldi has shown no real improvement as a Yankee and in fact, his 37.7 Hard% is 4th worst in the majors. Tampa Bay has hit well at home (13.9 HR/FB) and has a 16.7 HR/FB over the last week.

Noah Syndergaard is the Mets’ top prospect and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. After struggling a bit in an extreme hitter’s environment in Las Vegas, the Mets decided not to call him up and allow him to deal with maturity issues as well. There was a bit of a scare health-wise last month that turned out to be tendinitis and he has returned to dominate Vegas with three above average pitches and a blazing fastball to the tune of a 30.1 K%. Like most young prospects, he’s still yet to complete master the control and command portion of his game, but at 22 years old, that’s expected to come and his 7.1 BB% isn’t really bad. The great news here is the Cubs 26.2 K% at home, 25.8 K% vs RHP, and 30.1 K% over the last seven days. Syndergaard vs Bryant will be a heavily watched matchup by baseball fans tonight.

Rubby de la Rosa has allowed one ER or less, while pitching seven innings in two of his last three starts and can be forgiven for being roughed up by the Dodgers in between. He owns an 18.3 K-BB% and would be considered an under-valued asset tonight if the Nationals weren’t crushing the ball at the moment. They have a 25.0 HR/FB over the last week and 13.1 HR/FB vs RHP.

Sean O’Sullivan is this interesting: when you click to a player’s page on Fangraphs, there’s are links to the most recent articles about them at the top, under the player’s name and the last one about him from January of 2011 stating that he wasn’t worth drafting for your fantasy team.

Stephen Strasburg shaking his shoulder in his last start while Matt Williams leaves him in for another inning then states that all is good after a trip to the chiropractor. Sure, I’ll buy that with his history, especially considering he’s only had one really good start this year and that came against the Phillies.

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Dan Haren – His declining K rate is even worse than it looks. He has only surpassed a 6.6 SwStr% once. His previous career low for a season is a 7.0 SwStr% last year.

Ian Kennedy has had a strong SwStr% in every game except the first start he left due to injury. His previous career high is a 10.7 SwStr%, but he did have a 24.5 K% last season, which I could easily see him repeating. Padre pitchers know they can’t pitch to contact this year.

Jake Arrieta has had a SwStr rate above 9% in just one start and is down just over 2 points from 10.1% last year, but hasn’t lost much off his K%. Look for a slight drop in K% if this continues, consequently brining his ERA estimators up to meet his ERA.

Kyle Gibson – While I was really hoping his 1.6 K/SwStr would lead him to more strikeouts this year, he just decided to miss fewer bats and continue the trend this year. It’s still way too early in his career to call him another Jerome Williams (a low K/SwStr outlier), but even if that were the case, we still have to expect something better. I can’t help but wonder if the Minnesota team philosophy of pitching to contact through his minor league career is now holding him back.

Mike Fiers has sustained and even increased his K% by bringing his SwStr up to 11.2%. His current K% is really borderline sustainable, but better than his 2.92 K/SwStr. None of it’s going to matter if everything that is hit is hit hard.

Stephen Strasburg has a double digit SwStr% in two starts and maxes out at 5.5% in his other four. Yikes?

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

A.J. Burnett may look rejuvenated in Pittsburgh and there are certain aspects of being in Pittsburgh over Philadelphia that may help him defensively (like catcher framing and efficient shifting), but he’s not going to continue stranding 90% of his runners. He’s had a LOB above 83% in every single start.

Alfredo Simon is doing some of the things he did last year to keep his ERA well below his estimators, but not to as much of an extent. His BB and K rates are almost exact replicas, but his BABIP has risen to a more reasonable .289 and his HR/FB has decreased to 8.3 from 11.8, which is understandable when leaving Cincinnati.

Anthony DeSclafani is walking too many batters, but his ERA is being propped up by a .216 BABIP. He is exhibiting an elite Zone Contact rate, but that’s not going to be enough to keep his BABIP this low. He also gets an assist from a strong Cincinnati defense, so he may be able to keep some of that suppression over the course of the season.

Chris Sale has a fairly pedestrian 13.1 K-BB% that is not bad for your average pitcher, but not nearly good enough for him. His .378 BABIP and resulting 63.7 LOB% are partly the result of a 23.8 LD%, but also a porous White Sox defense. That’s one area to expect regression and hopefully the five walks last time out were just a freak aberration.

Dan Haren – The velocity, K%, and SwStr% remain in decline, but the ERA is below four for the first time in four years and below three for the first time ever. That’s because his BABIP is below .200 and his LOB is 89.8%. There is really nothing in his indicators that would suggest any BABIP suppressing talents. When that adjustment happens, he’ll probably be a little bit worse than he was last year and the year before because that’s what age related decline is.

Edinson Volquez – His 10.5 K-BB% is actually the 3rd best of his career and was even better until his last start. Only one of his 35 fly balls has left the yard and while we can’t expect that to continue, maybe Kansas City can keep the HR/FB in single digits. The .236 BABIP is really more a product of his defense than him as he hasn’t induced a single IFFB yet. That will regress some as his defense does most likely, but it has only wrought him a 65.7 LOB%. I still think his situation in Kansas City can prop him up and make him look better than his estimators (similar, but not as extreme as Pittsburgh last season) if he can keep the walks down.

Ian Kennedy – Five HRs resulting in a 27.8 HR/FB is the easy answer to why his FIP is so high, but the other estimators well below his ERA (remember FIP doesn’t normalize HR/FB). The estimators should look better with an expected rise in K%.

James Paxton has stranded just 60.5% of his runners, although that’s been a highly volatile issue for him as he’s had a LOB greater than 80% in two of his six starts.

Kyle Gibson keeps the ball on the ground and doesn’t seem to get hit all that hard, which is reflected more in his 6.5 HR/FB than his 23.5 LD% so far. As such, he’s unlikely to sustain a low BABIP with no supporting indicators. His -2.7 K-BB%, which should improve, but not be nearly good when his K% rises, will likely hamper anything he does from a batted ball standpoint.

Mark Buehrle is coming off his best start, against a Yankee team that has owned him no less, though six of the 18 batted balls were still hit hard and that’s really the big issue here. A career high 34.8% of batted balls are being hit hard despite a career high 13.9 IFFB%. It shows up both in his 28.1 LD% and 16.7 HR/FB.

Mike Fiers has a 20.1 K-BB% with a 10.1 BB%. He gets a bit more credit for the potential to sustain a better K rate with a higher SwStr, though there’s probably still some drop to it, but he is being rocked when contact is being made and it’s not a fluke. He’s a fly ball pitcher in a bad park with an 18.8 HR/FB and 11.5 career rate right now. He also had a 25.7 career LD%. He’s shown an ability to generate pop ups and his Z-Contact% would be 4th best in the majors if he qualified, so there’s reason for some optimism in his BABIP, but this is quite the contrast from a buy with a .224 BABIP last year. How about somewhere in the middle? The contact authority and park still make me lean closer to the FIP than other estimators.

Stephen Strasburg – The .394 BABIP and following 65.3 LOB% are the issues, where only one of 33 fly balls have left the yard for a guy with a 10.8 career HR/FB. The LD rate often runs a little high and sits at 25.2% this year, though his 12.1 IFFB% would be a career best. The contact against him isn’t otherwise particularly hard aside from his line drive rate, but I’m worried about the estimators rising if he doesn’t start missing enough bats to justify or even increase his K%. Health is obviously a question mark here until he proves it isn’t.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Chris Heston is a heavy ground ball pitcher (2.83 GB/FB), who has been able to stay away from hard contact. Further, of the 25 fly balls he has allowed, six have been pop ups. There are definitely reasons to expect his BABIP to drop and maybe significantly. He has allowed at least eight line drives in two of his last three starts though.

Nate Eovaldi – the .358 BABIP hasn’t hurt his ERA due to an 83 LOB%, but there are no indicators that suggest that much improvement, especially with a .312 career mark.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

A.J. Burnett – I don’t like paying this much for a pitcher who might be more defensively enabled than talented at this point, but it’s the Phillies.

C.J. Wilson – The Rockies don’t seem hapless on the road this year, but have struggled against LHP. Here they’re in a pitcher’s park going against a starter I’ve often thought was over-valued in the past, but has pitched well and cut down his walks this year. Strikeouts are down too, but the Rockies have struck out 23.5% against LHP and he has a strong defense behind him. He’s not cheap, but affordable near the middle of the board in most places.

Chris Archer – Although at home, this may not be the greatest spot to pay up for considering his recent troubles.

Chris Heston – This is one spot I’m looking at immediately at the bottom of the board for your dumpster diving play and I don’t even think he’s that bad a pitcher from what he’s shown. He’s been ok and although he’s on the road in a tougher park, the Astros have gone ice cold and have an offensive profile that might lend itself to prolonged slumps and his K rate should get a boost into relevance.

Chris Sale – About a week or two ago this would have been a dream matchup from a pitching standpoint and even though I think he’ll be ok, the defense might not be and there is some risk against a team hitting for more power that leans heavily right handed in a hitter’s park. I’d understand if you were cautious about paying the day’s top price, but there are no sure things today.

Collin McHugh – I’m not completely in love with is upside, which I think the Giants may limit with a low K rate, but he is coming off a strong outing and has pitched well this season, just not as well as last year. He’s not cheap, but affordable on most sites.
Ian Kennedy – Despite the potential of some hard hit balls and bungling defense, he should generate enough strikeouts to ensure his daily fantasy value. The park is still a plus also.

Jake Arrieta – While I’m a bit concerned about his strikeout rate being sustainable, I’m not very concerned with the Mets offense and he has been able to consistently generate weak contact this season if not as many swings and misses.

James Paxton has been decent and probably better than his ERA and that might generate some excess value at an affordable price against a potentially over-valued offense in a great park. Yes, the Padres do lean heavily towards the platoon advantage, but have merely been ok vs LHP this year and Paxton actually has a strong reverse split (.268 wOBA vs RHB through 447 batters faced) in his young career.

Mike Bolsinger – As mentioned up top, I think he could be a cheap source of strikeouts tonight, but don’t know what else. That’s a risk you can probably afford to take in GPPs at this price though.

Mike Fiers – You could get something like the 12 strikeouts and one run vs the Cubs two starts back, but it might be best to duck and pray. There’s a lot of upside, but the risk is him putting up a negative fantasy point total because half the contact he’s allowed has been hard.

Noah Syndergaard isn’t as cheap as you’d expect to see most pitchers making their major league debuts, but that’s because his reputation precedes him. It’s not expensive and likely as cheap as you’ll ever see him if things go right. There’s risk here in a young kid making his first start, but there’s risk everywhere and the potential is through the roof against a Cub offense that strikes out a ton. Remember, I am a Mets fan though so there might be the tiniest amount of if not bias, then wishful thinking, but I really do expect him to pitch well tonight.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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