Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, May 19th
In addition to the “No Thank You” list (because we try to be polite) that was first instituted Friday for pitchers we aren’t going to talk about at all on full day slates, today I’m also adding a “Not As Good As They Look” list also for pitchers we’re not going to use, but who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with it instead of using many more words to essentially say the same thing. These two lists will serve multiple purposes, including, shortening the length of the article, allowing for earlier posting times hopefully, and give us more time and words to focus on pitchers we might like.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -1.8 | 4.19 | 6.07 | 0.92 | 1.4 | 4.35 | 4.85 | COL | 84 | 86 | 41 | 20.0% | 5.7% | 22.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 8.1 | 4.26 | 5.43 | 2.88 | 1.05 | 4.17 | 6.43 | ANA | 76 | 75 | 91 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 10.1 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 1.24 | 1.05 | 3.74 | 4.13 | MIL | 63 | 79 | 58 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 21.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 12.5 | 3.03 | 4.6 | 1.89 | 0.87 | 2.9 | 2.9 | SFO | 100 | 108 | 153 | 20.2% | 6.6% | 18.8% | 13.6% | 5.1% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -6.4 | 4.74 | 4.69 | 1.53 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 5.77 | PHI | 72 | 69 | 111 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 22.7% | 9.0% | 5.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 13.8 | 4.31 | 5. | 1.11 | 0.98 | 4.68 | 2.99 | ATL | 104 | 98 | 84 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 22.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -3.3 | 3.53 | 5.97 | 2 | 0.91 | 3.49 | 3.01 | MIN | 71 | 107 | 91 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 24.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -2.2 | 3.55 | 6.06 | 1.4 | 1.03 | 3.29 | 3.05 | NYY | 101 | 104 | 57 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 20.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.1 | 4.43 | 5.32 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 4.45 | 3.4 | TOR | 132 | 145 | 111 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 22.2% | 9.5% | 15.7% |
| James Shields | SDG | -16.5 | 3.62 | 6.56 | 1.25 | 0.84 | 3.43 | 3.41 | CHC | 103 | 91 | 108 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 21.5% | 15.1% | 8.7% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 3.6 | 4.56 | 5.96 | 2.06 | 1.01 | 4.17 | 5.7 | ARI | 90 | 91 | 97 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 7.1% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 4.2 | 3.75 | 6.02 | 1.04 | 0.84 | 3.54 | 3.38 | SDG | 101 | 96 | 90 | 22.3% | 6.8% | 22.2% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 3.2 | 4.21 | 5.23 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 3.63 | 5.64 | FLA | 81 | 83 | 64 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 20.0% | 11.2% | 8.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3 | 3.78 | 5.76 | 1.5 | 1.05 | 4.31 | 3.14 | DET | 111 | 110 | 146 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 20.1% | 14.6% | 9.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 5.1 | 3.23 | 6.9 | 1.36 | 1.04 | 3.7 | 3.26 | KAN | 111 | 110 | 115 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 21.0% | 9.6% | 12.8% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.7 | 3.73 | 6.25 | 1.8 | 0.88 | 3.51 | 4.39 | STL | 89 | 94 | 83 | 21.0% | 6.6% | 22.4% | 10.3% | 6.8% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -8.6 | 3.61 | 6.19 | 1.25 | 1.08 | 2.98 | 1.88 | CLE | 94 | 100 | 103 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 21.0% | 5.4% | 12.0% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 7.2 | 3.7 | 5.83 | 1.26 | 0.88 | 3.81 | 3.89 | NYM | 100 | 79 | 87 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 23.2% | 8.6% | 13.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 5.8 | 4.32 | 6.08 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 4.43 | 5.11 | SEA | 86 | 94 | 117 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 19.8% | 13.0% | 9.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -5.1 | 4.6 | 5.67 | 0.55 | 0.98 | 5.43 | 4.18 | TAM | 92 | 96 | 114 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 21.3% | 9.4% | 14.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -7 | 4.06 | 5.98 | 1.36 | 1.03 | 3.98 | 4.48 | WAS | 104 | 102 | 127 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 23.3% | 13.8% | 9.7% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 4.8 | 3.86 | 5.86 | 1.25 | 0.91 | 4.13 | 4.42 | PIT | 88 | 84 | 107 | 18.6% | 7.1% | 22.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | -5.2 | 4.33 | 5.78 | 1.89 | 1.01 | 4.57 | 4.86 | OAK | 94 | 112 | 113 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 18.0% | 13.3% | 9.6% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -17.9 | 3.44 | 6.57 | 1.97 | 1.01 | 3.49 | 1.78 | HOU | 87 | 99 | 100 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 18.2% | 11.8% | 14.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -12.5 | 4.06 | 5.14 | 1.25 | 1.04 | 4.04 | 3.27 | BAL | 109 | 105 | 43 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 21.7% | 12.6% | 9.2% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | -2.7 | 3.73 | 6.3 | 2.14 | 0.87 | 3.38 | 3.69 | LOS | 114 | 134 | 120 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 24.3% | 21.6% | 9.2% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -7.5 | 3.98 | 5.74 | 0.85 | 1.08 | 4.18 | 3.07 | CHW | 86 | 95 | 92 | 22.3% | 7.7% | 22.7% | 8.6% | 10.4% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -7.6 | 3.87 | 6.02 | 1.83 | 1.07 | 3.51 | 4.72 | TEX | 84 | 114 | 129 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 18.3% | 13.5% | 7.6% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 18.9 | 3.95 | 5.93 | 1.59 | 1.04 | 3.61 | 4.04 | CIN | 96 | 90 | 117 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 22.3% | 13.3% | 8.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 4.2 | 3.85 | 5.91 | 1.74 | 1.07 | 3.68 | 4.91 | BOS | 95 | 91 | 49 | 16.2% | 7.3% | 18.5% | 9.3% | 13.3% |
NOTE – PITCHER CHANGE – Jarred Cosart was the originally scheduled starter, but was DL’ed and replaced by Tom Koehler at some point while this article was in the process of being written and too late to make the necessary change. Luckily there’s not enough of a difference in the upside of either pitcher to make much of a difference tonight, although it’s not a terrible spot at home against a weak Arizona offense for a competent low upside pitcher.
Anibal Sanchez had a couple of rough starts against Kansas City bombard his ERA and peripherals, but bounced back nicely against Minnesota last time out with nine strikeouts. He’s excelled at weak contact this season (1.3 Hard-Soft%). Milwaukee is the top park adjusted matchup of the day with the worst road offense and tied for 3rd worst wRC+ vs RHP. They have a 21.0 K-BB% over the last week.
Carlos Frias has pitched respectably in three starts while holding down the fort, waiting for another highly paid starter to get healthy. He’s allowed six ERs in 16.1 IP with 14 K’s, admittedly against the lesser offenses of the National League. He faces the hottest offense in the majors with a 16.7 HR/FB and are above average vs RHP, but are fairly average at home before factoring a park that harshly suppresses offense.
Erasmo Ramirez is a much maligned pitcher, who has really only pitched really poorly in one of his three spot starts this year, but he really got hammered by Toronto in that first start. He’s allowed one run in nine innings with six strikeouts over the following two. Despite a satanic ERA (6.66), his underlying metrics suggest that of an average pitcher through 24.1 IP with one very correctable issue, which will be discussed below. The Braves have been better than expected, though they’ve struggled lately (2.4 HR/FB over the last week). They’ve stuck out just 15.6% vs RHP.
Francisco Liriano continues to be inconsistent, as he’s been throughout his career, but the upside also continues to be immense. It’s usually the control that will get him (10.5 BB%) because even when batters make contact, his -3.6 Hard-Soft% is one of the top contact authority marks in baseball. He’s one of six qualified starters with a hard contact rate below 20%. You’re really just looking for the right spots to deploy him and in his very comfortable home park that thwarts RH power should often work, though he’s allowed a 13.9 HR/FB there since the start of 2014. Minnesota has hit LHP well, but are the 2nd worst offense on the road with just a 4.3 HR/FB.
Gio Gonzalez can also be very inconsistent, but with similar upside to Liriano when he’s on. After two starts where he was really on, he wasn’t as good last time out. He’s throwing more two seam fastballs than four seam for the first time of his career to a profound effect on his batted ball rates that will be covered later. He’s been very good at home with a 24.7 K% and unsustainable 1.4 HR/FB since the start of last season. His 0.8 Hard-Soft% is also a top mark as much of the leaderboard is going today. The Yankees have a solid offense that has hit LHP well even though they heavily lean that way, but they’ve been cold lately with just a 4.8 HR/FB over the last week.
James Shields really has a matchup that might emphasize both his strengths and weaknesses today. He may really be a rare pitcher that many people may use and many others may target hitters against and everyone may be right. Repeating what I’ve written in recent starts, you either get a strikeout or a home run because he really doesn’t want to let his defense deal with ball. He’s had at least seven strikeouts in all except one start and has also allowed 12 HRs and at least one in all but one start. The Cubs have struck out 26.1% on the road and 25.4% vs RHP and do have some pop. You’d hope the park might have some effect, but five of his 12 HRs have come at Petco in just three starts.
Jason Hammel has pitched well enough recently that his ERA has finally caught up (or dropped down) to his estimators. He’s gone at least seven innings with two runs or less in three of his last four starts. His 19.1 K-BB% is a career high. The Padres have been basically average offensively, which is a disappointment for them even though it represents great improvement from last season. The park adjustment likely puts Hammel in an even better spot than that.
Jeremy Hellickson probably hasn’t been good enough to deserve his own write up, but gets one due to the matchup. He’s allowed at least three ERs in all but one start, but the Marlins have been bad enough to get a manager fired over the weekend.
Jimmy Nelson had nearly a 2.0 GB/FB ratio in his last start, but added in six line drives and two HRs without the strikeouts. There are still things to like about him, but this might not be a great spot against a tough offense that has been hitting the ball well.
Johnny Cueto has pitched well and has the best SIERA over the last two calendar years of all of today’s starters who have been used exclusively as a starter, but hasn’t entirely bee up to his standards lately. He’s gone at least seven innings in seven of eight starts though and allowed two ERs or fewer in five of them. He’s still beating his estimators, just not by a significant amount. The Royals represent fantasy hell for pitchers. They swing and make some kind of contact in nearly every plate appearance. They have just a 5.4 team Hard-Soft%, which is 3rd worst in the majors, but they have somehow turned that into an above average offense.
Jon Niese seems to just be there among all the young studs in the Mets rotation. He’s the outlier: the not so young lefty that doesn’t throw gas, but consistently gets his league average or better results. He’s coming off a rough start in Chicago where his defense betrayed him, leading to the opening of the flood gates in what was really just a rough inning or two, but hasn’t allowed more than a single ER in five of seven starts. Terry Collins should start the better infield defense with the 2.8 GB/FB, but that’s another story. He doesn’t miss many bats, but has great control and though he can struggle with HRs occasionally, the Cardinals have been a below average offense both on the road and recently.
Jose Quintana is not the guy you think of when they talk about the dominant lefty on this staff, but he has been just that recently. He hasn’t walked a batter in four starts and is coming off a season high 10 strikeouts and has 18 over his last 47 batters. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts and hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in any of them. Further, though Cleveland has hit LHP better and has a 6.5 K-BB% against them this season that comes with just a 6.7 HR/FB and just a 4.5 overall HR/FB over the last week. Quintana has 19.4 K-BB% and 2.1 HR/FB at home since the start of last season.
Michael Wacha has allowed a single ER or less in five of seven starts, but has disappointed in his strikeout rate and nearly ended up on the list directly below if it weren’t for his opposition today. The Mets are tied for the 3rd worst wRC+ vs RHP with just a 6.3 HR/FB against them.
Ricky Nolasco is coming off his best start of the season, but hasn’t completed six innings in any of his four starts yet. He does have a very impressive 3.3 Hard-Soft% due to a 26.2% softly hit rate and is in a better spot than most realize. Pittsburgh is a pitcher’s park and the Pirates are one of the worst offenses both at home and vs RHP this year.
Sonny Gray has allowed more than one ER twice this year and more than two ERs just once. He has a new found fire in his strikeout rate with a double digit SwStr% and at least nine Ks in each of his last three starts and today faces a team that might scare you from a power perspective (18.5 HR/FB at home, 16.0 vs RHP, 22.6 over the last week), but strikes out a ton (26.0 K% at home, 25.5% vs RHP, 25.6% over the last week). How has he done it? A quick look at his Brooks Baseball Card shows a drop in curveball, changeup, and sinker usage this month, while his slider, cutter, and four seam fastball have all increased sharply.
Taijuan Walker has now pitched well in four of his last five starts. A reader tried to convince me on twitter that he had turned the corner last week, but I was still too concerned about his hard hit rate to take a chance on him and that’s still a problem with a 23.4 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks that is right near his 24.8% season rate, but the decrease in walks and ability to get ahead of batters more often is good news. Baltimore might seem like the worst place for him to pitch against a team with a 14.0 HR/FB at home and 16.4 HR/FB against RHP, but they’ve struck out 23.5% vs RHP and have been ice cold with a 6.3 HR/FB over the last week.
Tim Hudson has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last six starts and has just a 12.2 K%, which is the lowest of his career. Tonight, he faces the righty mashing Dodgers, so why do I think he has the potential to be one of the top values of the night in terms of points per dollar? Let’s start with a park that significantly suppresses offense despite his 5.74 ERA there this season. Next, we’ll move onto his 2.58 GB/FB that is actually his highest since 2010. Unfortunately, that’s because some of his fly balls have turned into line drives rather than his ground ball budging much, but his 29.6 Hard%, which is a bit higher, still isn’t among the worst marks in the league. The Dodgers have the 3rd best road offense, but not nearly as potent as at home and they’ve merely been good over the last week instead of dominating. Yes, all this is a bit of a stretch, but read on.
Trevor Bauer has shown great upside in his K rate, but sometimes he just likes to walk people and that’s a problem when he’s not striking out batters due to the defense behind him. The White Sox would offer a favorable matchup that the park really neutralizes.
Yordano Ventura has allowed exactly five ERs in three of his last five starts and has struggled with walks, strikeouts, and HRs this year. There’s not a lot good to say except that this is his first home start in a month, where he’s been respectable since the start of last season. Maybe a trip home against a team whose power should be turned down in this park might help him.
Yovani Gallardo hasn’t gotten pounded, but has really shown very little upside with just six strikeouts total over his last three starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three ERs since his first start, but also has only allowed fewer three times. He’s just there and only gets a paragraph because Boston has been so cold with the bats.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Aaron Harang (.255 BABIP – 79.7 LOB% – 2.9 HR/FB)
Hector Santiago (.263 BABIP – 86.8 LOB% – 7.5 HR/FB)
Miguel Gonzalez (.237 BABIP – 79.3 LOB% – 9.3 HR/FB) – I’ll break my new rule to say that he’s just 21.1 IP away from being the only pitcher (active or historical) with at least 500 career innings as a starter and a LOB above 80%. Some may have reached that mark with an 80 LOB%, but none have ever sustained or left the game with it intact. Seattle’s 16.7 team Hard-Soft% still leads the majors and the notion of them in Baltimore is pretty worrisome for a pitcher.
NO THANK YOU
Aaron Sanchez
Chad Bettis
Mike Foltynewicz
Nathan Eovaldi
Roberto Hernandez
Wade Miley
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 18.0% | 7.3% | Road | 15.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 3.7% |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 17.8% | 13.0% | Home | 21.3% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 6.9% | 15.5% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 22.5% | 6.7% | Home | 20.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 6.8% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 20.9% | 5.1% | Road | 23.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 12.7% | 9.4% | Home | 8.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 15.4% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 17.9% | 9.0% | Road | 16.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 4.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.0% | 10.6% | Home | 23.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 7.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.8% | 8.7% | Home | 24.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.3% | 10.8% | Road | 19.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| James Shields | Padres | 20.7% | 6.1% | Home | 20.2% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 11.3% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 14.7% | 10.4% | Home | 13.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 20.2% | 6.1% | Road | 22.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 7.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 17.6% | 7.0% | Road | 20.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.9% | 7.3% | Road | 18.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 24.4% | 6.5% | Road | 21.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 8.3% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.8% | 5.9% | Home | 18.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 3.5% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.1% | 6.4% | Home | 24.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 38.3% | 6.4% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 20.8% | 7.0% | Road | 19.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 17.3% | 7.6% | Home | 17.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 18.6% | 10.6% | Home | 17.7% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 13.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.9% | 6.3% | Road | 16.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | 18.4% | 5.8% | Road | 17.0% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 14.5% | 8.1% | Home | 14.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 22.0% | 7.9% | Road | 21.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 4.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 20.8% | 9.8% | Road | 19.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 6.7% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 15.4% | 5.1% | Home | 16.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 3.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 22.1% | 9.4% | Road | 22.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 5.9% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 19.1% | 8.3% | Home | 20.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 19.7% | 8.9% | Home | 20.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 8.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 18.4% | 7.4% | Road | 16.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 6.3% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 18.9% | 6.2% | RH | 21.7% | 5.0% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.2% |
| Angels | Road | 20.8% | 5.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 21.8% | 2.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.7% | 4.5% | RH | 22.2% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.9% | 3.9% |
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 7.9% | RH | 17.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.3% | 6.1% | RH | 19.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.0% | 7.8% |
| Braves | Home | 16.9% | 8.4% | RH | 15.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.8% | 5.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.8% | 7.4% | LH | 17.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.4% | 8.7% | LH | 18.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.6% | 9.6% | LH | 17.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 26.1% | 8.5% | RH | 25.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.5% | 5.9% | RH | 19.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.3% |
| Padres | Home | 20.9% | 6.5% | RH | 21.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 8.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.7% | 6.5% | RH | 21.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.2% | 6.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.2% | 9.0% | RH | 19.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.0% |
| Royals | Home | 13.6% | 6.3% | RH | 15.5% | 5.7% | L7Days | 12.8% | 4.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.9% | 7.3% | LH | 23.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 29.6% | 6.8% |
| Indians | Road | 17.3% | 8.4% | LH | 16.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.0% |
| Mets | Home | 19.5% | 8.9% | RH | 19.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.2% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 6.5% | RH | 21.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.0% |
| Rays | Road | 19.7% | 8.2% | RH | 20.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.7% | 8.9% | RH | 20.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.5% | 6.6% | RH | 19.7% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.0% | 6.9% | RH | 16.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.0% | 12.1% |
| Astros | Home | 26.0% | 9.4% | RH | 25.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.6% | 6.2% | RH | 23.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.5% | 4.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.3% | 11.3% | RH | 19.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.0% | 7.4% | RH | 19.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.6% | 8.4% | LH | 20.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.1% |
| Reds | Road | 18.8% | 8.6% | RH | 20.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 9.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.4% | 9.6% | RH | 16.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.2% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 21.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | Road | 24.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 3.3% | 20.0% |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 17.3% | 11.9% | 7.1% | Home | 12.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 20.5% | 5.9% | 10.8% | Home | 21.6% | 4.2% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 14.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | Road | 18.2% | 26.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 21.9% | 12.0% | 4.8% | Home | 23.6% | 21.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 19.8% | 13.2% | 7.3% | Road | 16.4% | 14.1% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.6% | 10.7% | 6.6% | Home | 20.1% | 13.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | Home | 22.3% | 1.4% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.2% | 8.2% | 14.3% | Road | 22.6% | 8.5% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.3% | 11.2% | 10.5% | Home | 23.2% | 9.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 19.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | Home | 20.7% | 4.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 23.0% | 12.4% | 8.8% | Road | 22.3% | 12.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 21.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | Road | 24.7% | 9.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.7% | 10.3% | 9.5% | Road | 16.9% | 7.1% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 41.7% | 8.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 20.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | Road | 21.6% | 7.5% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 23.0% | 9.4% | 6.8% | Home | 24.5% | 9.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.5% | 7.6% | 11.7% | Home | 21.6% | 2.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 20.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | Road | 21.7% | 6.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 10.0% | 30.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.0% | 11.3% | 12.3% | Home | 19.6% | 10.9% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 21.6% | 8.9% | 19.6% | Home | 18.2% | 10.3% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | Road | 24.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | 23.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | Road | 23.6% | 13.4% | 2.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Astros | 20.8% | 15.2% | 9.4% | Home | 18.4% | 15.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 18.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | Road | 15.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 24.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | Road | 26.5% | 14.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 20.8% | 10.7% | 6.3% | Home | 21.3% | 12.4% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 42.2% | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 23.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | Road | 23.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.8% | 13.1% | 4.6% | Home | 19.1% | 18.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 21.0% | 10.6% | 6.9% | Home | 19.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 20.0% | 12.2% | 5.5% | Road | 18.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 23.7% | 10.5% | 7.0% | RH | 22.4% | 13.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.9% | 12.5% |
| Angels | Road | 19.6% | 10.9% | 7.9% | RH | 21.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 18.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | RH | 20.3% | 10.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 13.3% | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Giants | Home | 20.7% | 6.3% | 8.9% | RH | 22.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.9% | 16.7% | 2.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.8% | 5.3% | 10.6% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 28.4% | 8.3% | 10.4% |
| Braves | Home | 22.1% | 11.8% | 8.7% | RH | 23.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 29.9% | 2.4% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Road | 21.6% | 4.3% | 15.5% | LH | 22.5% | 7.8% | 11.2% | L7Days | 27.3% | 5.9% | 9.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% | LH | 16.5% | 10.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 4.8% | 9.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 21.2% | 14.4% | 15.0% | LH | 24.8% | 13.5% | 16.2% | L7Days | 22.5% | 12.1% | 19.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | RH | 20.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 17.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | RH | 20.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% |
| Padres | Home | 18.6% | 12.1% | 6.9% | RH | 18.5% | 11.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 12.7% | 9.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | RH | 21.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 14.8% | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | RH | 21.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 13.0% | 10.1% |
| Royals | Home | 20.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | RH | 22.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.2% | 11.6% | 8.8% | LH | 19.3% | 12.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 26.9% | 13.8% | 6.9% |
| Indians | Road | 19.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | LH | 22.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 4.5% | 16.4% |
| Mets | Home | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.1% | RH | 23.0% | 6.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 16.8% | 14.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.3% | 11.6% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.6% | 22.2% | 1.9% |
| Rays | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | RH | 20.7% | 8.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 27.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.1% | 16.1% | 10.5% | RH | 20.6% | 14.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 21.4% | 18.4% | 13.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 20.1% | 12.6% | 5.4% | RH | 21.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.8% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.2% | 12.4% | 9.3% | RH | 21.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 13.3% | 10.2% | 5.1% |
| Astros | Home | 17.4% | 18.5% | 13.0% | RH | 22.3% | 16.0% | 13.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 22.6% | 18.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.7% | 14.0% | 8.9% | RH | 21.9% | 16.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.3% | 12.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.8% | 18.7% | 8.9% | RH | 21.4% | 18.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 24.1% | 10.6% | 12.2% | RH | 24.2% | 9.8% | 14.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.3% | 19.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 15.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | LH | 20.5% | 13.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 16.6% | 15.3% | 5.1% |
| Reds | Road | 22.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% | RH | 21.3% | 13.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 13.4% | 11.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.8% | 12.0% | 13.6% | RH | 19.9% | 10.6% | 15.0% | L7Days | 20.6% | 5.7% | 24.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 17.9% | 8.1% | 2.21 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 2.07 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 14.5% | 6.0% | 2.42 | 15.3% | 5.9% | 2.59 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 21.7% | 9.9% | 2.19 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.04 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.99 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.99 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 11.5% | 7.6% | 1.51 | 11.5% | 7.6% | 1.51 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.1% | 12.4% | 1.54 | 20.6% | 13.4% | 1.54 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 27.6% | 13.6% | 2.03 | 27.1% | 13.2% | 2.05 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.7% | 8.5% | 2.67 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 2.42 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 22.0% | 9.4% | 2.34 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.16 |
| James Shields | SDG | 30.9% | 13.8% | 2.24 | 31.5% | 13.5% | 2.33 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 14.8% | 7.6% | 1.95 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 2.04 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 22.4% | 8.4% | 2.67 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 2.55 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 15.8% | 9.6% | 1.65 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 1.78 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 22.4% | 11.9% | 1.88 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.78 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 24.9% | 10.5% | 2.37 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.15 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 13.8% | 5.2% | 2.65 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 2.88 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 22.8% | 8.6% | 2.65 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 2.64 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 14.3% | 7.7% | 1.86 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 2.01 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 19.4% | 9.0% | 2.16 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.99 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.14 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.14 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 17.4% | 7.8% | 2.23 | 16.5% | 7.5% | 2.20 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 16.5% | 7.3% | 2.26 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.19 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 11.3% | 6.9% | 1.64 | 9.1% | 6.9% | 1.32 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 24.5% | 9.9% | 2.47 | 30.8% | 11.9% | 2.59 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 20.8% | 9.3% | 2.24 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 2.51 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 12.2% | 9.1% | 1.34 | 13.5% | 9.9% | 1.36 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.1% | 10.9% | 2.30 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 2.08 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 14.2% | 7.2% | 1.97 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 1.72 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 17.7% | 8.6% | 2.06 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 1.94 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 16.4% | 6.6% | 2.48 | 13.5% | 4.6% | 2.93 |
Erasmo Ramirez has had at least a 9.9 SwStr% in each of his three starts, so this has not just been a case of his bullpen work being strong. He has flashed solid swing and miss potential throughout his short time in the majors with a 10.5 career SwStr% in 231 innings. The potential is there.
James Shields is 3rd in the majors in both K% and SwStr% and though he’s been at least league average in every start, his SwStr% has dropped to below double digits for the first two times in his last two starts.
Jeremy Hellickson has a SwStr% that is sitting right at his career rate. It’s never allowed him even a league average strikeout rate, but he normally gets a little more mileage out of it and should going forward too.
Tim Hudson has a career 9.0 SwStr% that is almost exactly the same as what he’s doing this year, yet his career 16.1 K% is nearly four points higher. That’s still not good, but it’s more. These are outs that he’s not getting now, but should be able to get going forward.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 2.03 | 4.19 | 2.16 | 4.22 | 2.19 | 2.87 | 0.84 | 2.41 | 4.14 | 1.73 | 4.11 | 1.7 | 3 | 0.59 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 4.26 | 5.63 | 1.37 | 5.24 | 0.98 | 5.65 | 1.39 | 3.68 | 5.73 | 2.05 | 5.26 | 1.58 | 5.33 | 1.65 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 4.76 | 3.76 | -1 | 3.84 | -0.92 | 3.7 | -1.06 | 5.21 | 4.1 | -1.11 | 4.12 | -1.09 | 3.49 | -1.72 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 2.89 | 3.02 | 0.13 | 3.21 | 0.32 | 2.94 | 0.05 | 2.89 | 3.02 | 0.13 | 3.21 | 0.32 | 2.94 | 0.05 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 7.2 | 5.77 | -1.43 | 5.75 | -1.45 | 4.35 | -2.85 | 7.2 | 5.77 | -1.43 | 5.75 | -1.45 | 4.35 | -2.85 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 6.66 | 3.75 | -2.91 | 3.95 | -2.71 | 3.93 | -2.73 | 1.42 | 3.17 | 1.75 | 3.41 | 1.99 | 2.99 | 1.57 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 2.96 | 3.46 | 0.5 | 3.19 | 0.23 | 3.41 | 0.45 | 3.31 | 3.61 | 0.3 | 3.31 | 0 | 3.21 | -0.1 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.25 | 3.36 | -0.89 | 3.2 | -1.05 | 2.75 | -1.5 | 3.9 | 3.07 | -0.83 | 2.86 | -1.04 | 2.12 | -1.78 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.41 | 4.25 | 1.84 | 4.52 | 2.11 | 3.98 | 1.57 | 2.2 | 4.19 | 1.99 | 4.34 | 2.14 | 3.64 | 1.44 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.91 | 2.81 | -1.1 | 3.01 | -0.9 | 4.85 | 0.94 | 4.6 | 2.83 | -1.77 | 2.98 | -1.62 | 5.98 | 1.38 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 4.08 | 4.48 | 0.4 | 4.27 | 0.19 | 4.71 | 0.63 | 3.81 | 4.43 | 0.62 | 4.23 | 0.42 | 4.88 | 1.07 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.11 | 3.31 | 0.2 | 3.38 | 0.27 | 3.37 | 0.26 | 2.38 | 3.34 | 0.96 | 3.49 | 1.11 | 3.24 | 0.86 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 5.92 | 4.61 | -1.31 | 4.56 | -1.36 | 4.65 | -1.27 | 5.67 | 4.58 | -1.09 | 4.6 | -1.07 | 4.82 | -0.85 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.22 | 3.74 | -0.48 | 3.77 | -0.45 | 4.32 | 0.1 | 5.28 | 4.24 | -1.04 | 4.22 | -1.06 | 5.17 | -0.11 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 2.93 | 3.19 | 0.26 | 3.29 | 0.36 | 3.46 | 0.53 | 3.38 | 3.6 | 0.22 | 3.69 | 0.31 | 4.25 | 0.87 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 2.49 | 3.97 | 1.48 | 3.91 | 1.42 | 4.14 | 1.65 | 2.81 | 3.97 | 1.16 | 4 | 1.19 | 4.09 | 1.28 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 4.39 | 3.46 | -0.93 | 3.56 | -0.83 | 3.15 | -1.24 | 4.5 | 3.3 | -1.2 | 3.37 | -1.13 | 2.88 | -1.62 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.06 | 4.2 | 2.14 | 4.03 | 1.97 | 3.68 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 4.09 | 1.72 | 3.93 | 1.56 | 3.25 | 0.88 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 2.93 | 4.37 | 1.44 | 4.29 | 1.36 | 4.1 | 1.17 | 3.56 | 4.87 | 1.31 | 4.89 | 1.33 | 4.9 | 1.34 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.24 | 4.88 | 0.64 | 5.01 | 0.77 | 4.56 | 0.32 | 4.24 | 4.88 | 0.64 | 5.01 | 0.77 | 4.56 | 0.32 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.14 | 4.01 | -0.13 | 3.81 | -0.33 | 4.09 | -0.05 | 4.06 | 3.97 | -0.09 | 3.69 | -0.37 | 4.15 | 0.09 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 6.38 | 4.82 | -1.56 | 4.86 | -1.52 | 3.26 | -3.12 | 4.11 | 4.17 | 0.06 | 4.13 | 0.02 | 2.76 | -1.35 |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 4.12 | 4.58 | 0.46 | 4.41 | 0.29 | 4.91 | 0.79 | 4.36 | 4.69 | 0.33 | 4.46 | 0.1 | 5.12 | 0.76 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 1.61 | 3.37 | 1.76 | 3.47 | 1.86 | 2.4 | 0.79 | 1.3 | 2.99 | 1.69 | 3.04 | 1.74 | 1.91 | 0.61 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 7.22 | 4.2 | -3.02 | 4.41 | -2.81 | 5.02 | -2.2 | 4.44 | 3.71 | -0.73 | 3.88 | -0.56 | 4.71 | 0.27 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 4.57 | 4.18 | -0.39 | 3.95 | -0.62 | 5.29 | 0.72 | 5.63 | 3.82 | -1.81 | 3.55 | -2.08 | 5.93 | 0.3 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.67 | 3.9 | 0.23 | 4.02 | 0.35 | 3.41 | -0.26 | 4.55 | 4.18 | -0.37 | 4.32 | -0.23 | 3.89 | -0.66 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 5.6 | 5.1 | -0.5 | 5.04 | -0.56 | 4.37 | -1.23 | 4.23 | 5.18 | 0.95 | 5.03 | 0.8 | 4.2 | -0.03 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 5.36 | 4.14 | -1.22 | 4.08 | -1.28 | 4.94 | -0.42 | 6.59 | 4.28 | -2.31 | 4.22 | -2.37 | 4.96 | -1.63 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.94 | 4.25 | 0.31 | 4.14 | 0.2 | 4.16 | 0.22 | 4.2 | 4.66 | 0.46 | 4.51 | 0.31 | 4.42 | 0.22 |
Anibal Sanchez – A 63.4% strand rate has his ERA looking ugly at the moment, but fortunately, with everything else looking ok, that’s usually something that self-corrects or is the easiest thing to fix as it’s generally just a sequencing issue. His 15.6 K-BB% is a bit better than last year and above his career rate and his 1.3 Hard-Soft% is among the top marks in baseball.
Erasmo Ramirez has a 10.5 K-BB% that’s a bit below average due to a strikeout rate that we might be able to expect more from. If that comes to fruition, it would drop his estimators (and hopefully ERA) a bit lower. While a 33.8 Hard% is a bit concerning, his BABIP and HR/FB are in line with the league averages. He has a 15.8 IFFB% that nearly surpasses his 16.9 LD%. Both marks are impressive in an admittedly small sample. The issue so far has been with a 49.7 LOB% stemming entirely from his first two appearances of the season in which he allowed 16 runs over 5.1 IP. He’s been nearly perfect since.
Gio Gonzalez – An inflated BABIP trumps a 4.3 HR/FB in his estimators as an 18.4 Hard% has led to just a single HR. He does have a 23.0 LD%, but career high 58.2 GB% and 3.09 GB/FB that is twice his career rate. A few starts back, I made a crack about him becoming a pitch to contact ground baller, but how about an extreme ground baller with a league average or better strikeout rate? That’s pretty impressive, even with a league average BB%. Back to the BABIP though, you may be looking at the fact that he hasn’t induced a pop up yet, but there have only been 23 fly balls. This looks like entirely too many ground balls finding holes. If the ground ball rate holds, which would be a significant course change for him, things are looking bright.
James Shields – His FIP portrays a 25.0 HR/FB that can’t be sustained. Somehow, he has an 85.1 LOB% because aside from the HRs, he’s seemingly striking everyone else out. Consider that 36.7% of the batters that have faced him have either homered or struck out.
Jeremy Hellickson has not been good and isn’t estimated to be good, but the BABIP runs a bit high. I wouldn’t expect him to come near his career rate of .274 without the stellar defense behind him anymore and his batted ball rates don’t bear out even a league average rate, but there should be some improvement from a .344 mark that might help his estimators and hopefully his ERA. He may see some further assistance if his K% improves to meet his SwStr rate as well.
Jon Niese has an ERA much lower than his estimators, but aside from a 7.7 K-BB% that is well below league average, I’m a bit stumped as to why this is with just a quick look. His BABIP and LOB% are perfectly league average and his 13.3 HR/FB is well worse than league average. Oh, wait, I see it. Eight of his 20 runs allowed have been unearned because of errors preceding or directly causing them. Make them earned runs and his ERA is 4.15.
Jose Quintana is still fighting off the effects of a beating against Detroit in which he allowed nine runs exactly a month ago today. His BABIP has floated high in several starts this year, but much of that blame can go on the defense. That’s good news because it’s not his fault, but bad news because they’ll be behind him all year and it’s not something he can fix.
Michael Wacha has a solid 4.2 Hard-Soft% against him that isn’t top of the league, but close enough to be impressive and maybe explain some of the gap between his ERA and estimators for a guy with just an 8.8 K-BB%. A solid seven pop ups (17.9 IFFB%) helps the BABIP too, but doesn’t explain a .241 BABIP or fully support an 84.8 LOB%. The St Louis portion of his pitching gets him a pass on his 7.7 HR/FB.
Ricky Nolasco hasn’t been good and does have a career BABIP over .300, but a .393 mark and 55.9 LOB% is not something you’d expect any major league caliber pitcher to sustain, even with a 96.6 Z-Contact%. Obviously the 5.9 K-BB% doesn’t help and he’s been fortunate to not have any of his 21 fly balls leave the yard yet, but again, we’re not saying he’s good, just better than his ERA.
Sonny Gray probably has some regression in his BABIP, but most of the negative mark on Oakland’s defense comes from errors rather than preventing hits. He has a 17.1 Hard% that is the 2nd best mark in the majors, but the 1.9 HR/FB is still unsustainable, even in Oakland. Even when those two things regress, with the new found swing and miss stuff in his arsenal, this will still be an all-star pitcher.
Taijuan Walker has too much talent to sustain a .359 BABIP and 60.1 LOB%, but much of that stems from a couple of early season starts and one at the beginning of May which are taking a long time to work off. The 14.6 HR/FB should suffer a similar fate, especially in Safeco, but the 37.6 Hard% is concerning.
Yordano Ventura has a .333 BABIP and 15.8 HR/FB over his last four starts, all on the road. His 8.1 K-BB% doesn’t portray a good pitcher, but possibly one better than his ERA over that period.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.309 | 0.255 | -0.054 | 17.1% | 87.6% |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.288 | 0.250 | -0.038 | 7.7% | 93.9% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.284 | 0.288 | 0.004 | 16.4% | 86.0% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 0.289 | 0.304 | 0.015 | 7.7% | 92.7% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.322 | 0.368 | 0.046 | 0.0% | 96.4% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.268 | 0.306 | 0.038 | 15.8% | 78.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.309 | 0.215 | -0.094 | 10.0% | 85.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.327 | 0.387 | 0.06 | 0.0% | 88.4% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.268 | 0.263 | -0.005 | 18.9% | 82.9% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.305 | 0.310 | 0.005 | 16.7% | 81.3% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 0.295 | 0.229 | -0.066 | 5.9% | 92.4% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.304 | 0.273 | -0.031 | 2.1% | 88.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.302 | 0.344 | 0.042 | 4.5% | 86.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.304 | 0.264 | -0.04 | 10.3% | 88.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.277 | 0.235 | -0.042 | 10.3% | 84.2% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.277 | 0.293 | 0.016 | 0.0% | 92.8% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.314 | 0.345 | 0.031 | 10.0% | 89.7% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.300 | 0.241 | -0.059 | 17.9% | 87.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.269 | 0.237 | -0.032 | 16.3% | 88.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.287 | 0.347 | 0.06 | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.297 | 0.346 | 0.049 | 5.3% | 88.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 0.300 | 0.393 | 0.093 | 9.5% | 96.6% |
| Roberto Hernandez | HOU | 0.274 | 0.246 | -0.028 | 10.0% | 91.9% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.280 | 0.248 | -0.032 | 11.5% | 87.7% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.286 | 0.359 | 0.073 | 4.9% | 84.5% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 0.281 | 0.292 | 0.011 | 6.5% | 88.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.339 | 0.296 | -0.043 | 17.4% | 86.2% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.298 | 0.298 | 0 | 6.7% | 88.9% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.260 | 0.302 | 0.042 | 0.0% | 93.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.296 | 0.280 | -0.016 | 6.5% | 87.7% |
Francisco Liriano – Elite contact authority rates aside, we all know a .215 BABIP is completely unsustainable, especially on a 27.5 LD% and otherwise normal indicators in the chart directly above. In fact add the LD% to a 13.3 HR/FB and it makes his 18.9 Hard% sort of contradictory, but who am I to argue? Weak line drives?
Jason Hammel had a .340 BABIP through his first three starts and a .227 BABIP over his last four. You can see the difference in his ERA and estimators over the last month as his ERA had dropped two full runs over that span.
Johnny Cueto – Part of what has allowed him to swim so far ahead of his ERA estimators (LOB%) has been normalized, but the BABIP is still tough to swallow. He has most of the makings of a lower BABIP, including the strong Z-Contact% and team defense, but is not generating nearly as much weak contact as last season (though that’s more connected to overall performance than BABIP) and has a fairly league average LD rate. It’s tough to accept anything below .250 as being sustainable over the long term without some extreme outliers in the indicators.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Anibal Sanchez is around the bottom of the 2nd tier price wise on most sites and is coming off a great start with the top matchup of the night. He’s allowed just one HR over his last five starts and as soon as his strand rate balances out, his ERA should be fine.
Carlos Frias still has some reliever stats baked into his numbers, but throws tons of groundballs and gets enough strikeouts to be worth the low price you’re paying for him because he’s basically a reliever. The Giants haven’t been an easy offense to hold down, but the park is a major ally. He doesn’t have to give you much to add value to your lineup.
Erasmo Ramirez is a dumpster diving special. The Braves don’t strike out much, but don’t hit for much power either and don’t really scare anyone as an offense. Ramirez is a guy who’s pitched well since some early difficulties and is still working off a low strand rate. Add in the potential for a few more strikeouts than is immediately obvious and you have some hidden value here.
Francisco Liriano is fairly expensive and is inconsistent enough to carry some risk, but has a solid matchup at home with a ton of upside. He’s struck out at least seven if five of seven starts.
Gio Gonzalez also carries some risk of implosion at a high price against a team that can be patient, but he’s facing a cold offense that he should have the platoon advantage against their better hitters. The upside is even bigger than usual if the ground ball version shows up with the guy who can miss bats.
James Shields has immense upside when you combine his talents with the Cubs tendencies to chase, but how comfortable do you feel paying up for a guy who has averaged nearly 1.5 HRs allowed per start. If he gets you double digit Ks, the HRs won’t be a problem and he’s had at least seven in seven of eight starts.
Jason Hammel has been pitching well and has a double digit SwStr% in each of his last two starts. He travels to the great pitcher’s park in San Diego to face a lineup that has under-performed and leans heavily right handed. His price tag compares favorably to Anibal Sanchez near the bottom of the 2nd tier, where I’d expect a similar type performance.
Jeremy Hellickson should probably be mentioned due to the low price tag in a great spot, but has been the dumps and there are other dumpster diving options I’d go to over him.
Johnny Cueto – I don’t know I’d pay the top tier price today against the Royals. They’re just such a tough offense to get value against and it’s not like he’s been lights out every time out this year.
Jon Niese is a mid-range option, who won’t dazzle you, but has been a league average pitcher at home facing an offense that hasn’t been great lately and struggles on the road. If you’re going to consider him, make sure the Mets are starting their best infield defense (Tejada over Flores) to get the maximum from his strong ground ball rate.
Jose Quintana is right there with a couple of pitchers already mentioned near the bottom of that second tier and maybe even a little cheaper on a couple of sites, but has been pitching as well as anyone. He takes a small step up in terms of opposition facing a league average offense in what could be a tough park, but he has a 2.98 xFIP at home since the start of last season with an ERA not too much higher.
Michael Wacha may not have the upside to go with his price tag, so it may be difficult to squeeze much value beyond it out of him today, but probably should be mentioned in good spot.
Ricky Nolasco – Value doesn’t have to mean good and it certainly isn’t here, but this may be another dumpster diving option for you as a bottom of the board price tag coming off a solid start (seven strikeouts and no earned runs) against a good offense (Detroit) and is in a better spot than many people may realize in a pitcher’s park against an offense that has under-performed this year. Maybe not worth your salary cap dollars, but worth a mention.
Sonny Gray is your top priced pitcher today on most sites, but the new version of him this month has immense upside against a team that strikes out a ton. It begs the question: if he could do this all along, why was he pitching to contact?
Taijuan Walker has some scary traits that could show their face in Baltimore, but also shows a lot of the upside you want in your low priced starters. He’s been pitching well lately, has at least league average or better strikeout upside, and is facing an ice cold team. He’s way to high risk for double ups, but might be worth the risk as a potentially low owned GPP play.
Tim Hudson – I’ve done nothing today to convince you that he’s going to or should pitch well against the Dodgers, but he could be worth more than his price tag on many sites. He has a 3.38 xFIP at home since the start of last season and though a few more line drives have taken the place of some fly balls, he’s still generating a ton of ground balls and has the same SwStr% despite the drop in K%. The Dodgers are team we all often stack at home vs RHP, but nobody expected them to keep up that monstrous pace all season, they’re not as potent on the road, and this is a tough park to hit in.
Trevor Bauer has struck out eight or more and five or fewer three times each. It’s really a matter of personal risk here for a mostly mid-range price tag because the range of outcomes is very wide. If he starts walking people and can’t miss bats, he’s in trouble with that defense behind him. Good Bauer has a lot of upside though.
Yordano Ventura is another mid to low range price tag who hasn’t pitched well, but also hasn’t pitched at home in month. Maybe being back in his comfy home park after four consecutive road starts, against a team whose offense should play down in this spot could help him generate some value today.
Yovani Gallardo is missing so few bats and has so little upside that I really can’t think of a reason for you to use him in your lineup tonight except for the fact that Boston has been so bad offensively over the last week.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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