Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, May 26th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-05-28 12:23:33

Some people like to keep it simple, and there is merit to that, but I feel that if you’re not constantly evolving when new information becomes available, you’ll eventually fall behind. This is how I feel about baseball analysis in either a real world or fantasy setting.

I’ve described the Combo stats in the main charts as something I threw together a few years ago and jammed into one number due to space limitations at the time, but never liked how all the components were equally weighted because I knew that wasn’t correct. Eventually, I was able to provide individual numbers with additional charts, but only this weekend did I finally start messing around with weighting. It’s not something that will be displayed yet, because nobody can tell you what the correct weighting for each particular situation is. I’d be welcome to suggestions though.

The second thing I tried to do this weekend is bake some of the contact authority stuff (Hard% and Soft%) into the secret sauce instead of just using it to confirm things seen in a pitcher’s results. So, although, nothing you’ll see right now in the charts has changed, I feel as if the thought process behind the analysis has been upgraded, which hopefully benefits both of us with the write ups.

Lastly, tomorrow’s schedule is really odd with just four late games, so there will be no article again, but I’m going to try to make up for it with a rare Thursday posting.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

Adam Warren hasn’t been good, but what he has been is serviceable for the Yankees at the back end of the rotation. He’s allowed between one to four ERs in each of his eight starts, but with just a 4.8 K-BB% and peripherals that should not endear him to daily fantasy players. The good news is that his style of pitching already fits right in with his opponents, the Royals, today and the one thing he does have going for him is solid contact authority rates and just a 4.2 HR/FB at home since last season. That’s unsustainable over the long run, but none the less impressive. He has just a 4.9 Hard-Soft%, while the Royals have just a 7.1 H-S% overall and 7.8 H-S% vs RHP. What you may have here, is a lot of weak contact for six innings and then relief pitching. Is that worth a dumpster dive for you?

Alex Colome had a strong start last time out and has pitched well in three of his five starts, allowing two ERs or less. In the other two, he failed to strike out a batter in one, lasting only into the fourth inning and then allowed all four of his HRs in the other against the Yankees. Pitching at home with the Tampa Bay defense behind him will always be beneficial and the matchup would seem to favor him as well, but the Mariners strike the ball harder than any team overall (16.7 Hard-Soft%) and vs RHP (17.6 H-S%).

Chris Tillman has been awful and pitches in a tough park tonight against a team with power. Here’s the odd thing about him this year though: 18 of 28 ERs have come in just three starts against Toronto. Against all other teams in five starts, he’s only allowed more than two ERs once against the Yankees with just a total of two HRs allowed. The underlying numbers have been better against non-Toronto opponents, but they still haven’t been good. The one reason we’re mentioning him though, is because Houston strikes out a lot (24.3% on the road, 25.7% vs RHP, 26.6% over the last week) and strikeouts get us lots of points.

Clay Buchholz doesn’t seem to have pitched nearly as poorly as his ERA would indicate and those who have believed in the underlying metrics have been rewarded with two very good starts (one even dominant) the last couple of times he took the mound. In addition to striking out 15 of 54 batters he has a -2.7 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks and 5.3% mark on the year. Another thing that may not be blatantly obvious is that Minnesota plays as a bit of a hitter’s park for overall run factor and the Twins have one of the top home offenses in baseball. They counter that by not hitting RHP very well though.

Clayton Kershaw has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last four starts, but his estimators keep portraying him as a dominant pitcher due to a 23.5 K-BB% that is still elite and not too far behind last year’s mark. He’s already allowed two-thirds of the HRs that he allowed last year and Al Leiter mentioned on MLB network that a slider which isn’t breaking as much may be the issue, but there’s still a ton of upside in a guy who’s struck out at least seven in seven of nine starts and faces a weak offense that is 3rd worst vs LHP this year with a 22.0 K% and 2.7 Hard-Soft% against them.

Danny Salazar has as much strikeout upside as anyone today or any other day (his 28.7 K-BB% is tops in the majors), but you never know what else you’re going to get with that. He has at least seven Ks in six of his seven starts, but has a 34.9 Hard% on the season with a 24.2 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks. It probably doesn’t help that he’s facing one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors, but the Rangers are going from one of the best hitting environments to a much tougher one in Cleveland. They do have an 18.5 HR/FB over the last week.

David Price has struck out 21 of his last 55 batters (HOU & STL) after striking out just four of his previous 63 (KC & KC). Opposition matters I guess, so thankfully he’s facing a team that’s 2nd worst vs LHP (3.9 HR/FB) in a great park where they have just a 6.1 HR/FB this year. If you look at Price’s 16.4 K-BB% and 3.32 ERA and think he’s having a subpar season, those are actually his career numbers. It’s just possible that he had a career year last season. The really shocking thing seems to be the assist he’s getting from a Detroit defense that rates 2nd best in the majors by UZR.

Jacob deGrom has flashed last year’s Rookie of the Year brilliance, but has also mixed in some mediocrity. He was almost scratched from his last start with shoulder and hip soreness which may have led to some mechanical issues this season in his poor starts, but instead decided to go out and dominate the best team in the National League. It didn’t hurt his velocity, as it was the hardest he’s thrown all year in addition to the most curveballs and 2nd fewest sliders. That’s back to back strong starts and three out his last four as he seems to have found his release points again. He has the best park adjusted matchup of the day by new or old weighting against a team that is the worst vs RHP with just a 5.1 Hard-Soft% against them and Major League-worst 3.1 H-S% overall. DeGrom has just a 3.9 HR/FB at Citi Field in his career and the Phillies have a 5.6 HR/FB on the road this year.

Jaime Garcia walked five of the 26 batters he faced in his first start, striking out only three, but that didn’t stop him from going seven innings and allowing just two runs to the Mets. He did precede that without a walk and six strikeouts in his last minor league rehab start though. He has a fairly neutral matchup today, but in a home park where he’s had great success.

Jeff Locke has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last six starts, but seems to be a little better than his ERA suggests and has a respectable 18.3 K% this year. His 9.4 SwStr% has declined, but suggested a possible rise in his K-rate this year. He has a good matchup today in a great park against a team that is league average vs LHP, but with just a 6.5 Hard-Soft% against them.

Jesse Chavez has gone at least six innings with three ERs or fewer in four of his six starts and hasn’t allowed more than four ERs yet. His 15.7 K-BB% is a career best and though he faces an offense that is 3rd best on the road and 5th best vs RHP, the park adjusts them down to neutral and he has just a 5.9 HR/FB at home since last season to go with their 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP.

Jordan Zimmermann has been pitching well after a rough start and it coincides with an uptick in velocity closer to last year’s levels over his last few starts. The strikeouts still aren’t back, but even that has been a bit better over the last month and he now has a 0.6 Hard-Soft% for the season and -10.8% mark over his last two weeks. He faces a Cubs team today that, despite being a better team, still profiles as a good matchup for him, even in Chicago. Their strikeout rates (24.6% at home, 25.7% vs RHP, 25.9% over the last week) rival the Astros.

Editor’s Note: Jorge De La Rosa has been scratched from today’s game. Chris Rusin will start in his place.

Jorge De La Rosa hasn’t been very good and goes from one band box to another, but Cincinnati doesn’t play very hitter friendly overall. They do have some RH power with a 15.2 HR/FB at home and 14.3 HR/FB vs LHP, but de la Rosa keeps the ball on the ground and therefore generally in the park and is catching them during a cold spell.

Jose Urena ranks as the #6 Marlins prospect in a system without a lot of high-end potential according to Fangraphs. He has four pitches of which the fastball seems to be the best, but none will overwhelm you. This will be his first major league start after three relief innings. He had a 6.7 K-BB% in 37.1 AAA innings this season, but does seem to keep the ball in the park. He has a slightly favorable matchup in a great park against a team that has been hitting the ball better though.

Julio Teheran has been better in recent starts, allowing one ER or less in three of his last four starts, but still has HR issues and faces the best offense at home vs RHP with a 17.1 HR/FB against them. It’s really the walk rate that’s improved for him over the last month.

Kyle Hendricks is coming off his best start of the season, a shutout of San Diego with seven strikeouts and now returns to Wrigley, where he’s pitched well since last year to face a Washington offense that isn’t bad, but is more Bryce Harper and injuries right now. They do have a 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP, which might scare you here, but Hendricks has succeeded by not walking anyone, leading to a 14.9 K-BB% (though we’ll talk about the K% later) and a 6.2 HR/FB over his 126 inning major league career so far. He’s had excellent walk and HR rates in the minors as well though.

Madison Bumgarner has looked a bit better than his estimators this season, which we’ll talk about later, but the gist of it is a drop in drop in his K%, though his 17.7 K-BB% is right around his career number, if not as good as last season. He goes into a tough park tonight to face a team with some RHP power, but they’ve been the worst offense in the majors against LHP (18.7 K-BB%), leaving him in a great spot. Even better is an uptick in his strikeouts over the last month, which the Brewers should only benefit by chasing the high fastball he likes to throw.

Matt Shoemaker has seen a slight uptick in his May velocity, which has led to two good starts, but two absolute beatings as well. He allowed just 14 HRs in 136 innings last year. He’s allowed 13 in just 44 innings already this season. His 17.7 K-BB% otherwise nearly matches his 18.4% rate last year. He has a 20.0 K-BB% at home over his career and faces a scuffling offense with a 21.8 K-BB% offensively over the last week in what should be a very favorable matchup.

R.A. Dickey has taken a beating and allowed 11 HRs over his last seven starts, but has also improved his control with just two walks over his last two starts and a season-high seven strikeouts in a complete game against the Angels last time out. Here, he gets another great matchup, despite the hitter’s environment, against an offense that hasn’t gotten on track this year and been the worst in the majors over the last week. Not something you see in any of the charts today is Dickey’s 3.6 Hard-Soft% this year and 2.2% over the last two weeks, along with Chicago’s 5.8 H-S% this year and 6.3% vs RHP. That drops even further to 0.0% over the last week with a 20.3 K-BB% for the White Sox over the last week.

Scott Feldman has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last four starts and is not in a particularly good spot today in an offensive park against a team with power, but there is some noise in his ERA that we’ll explore below, which may create a situation where there’s some value in his cost today.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)

Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.

Michael Lorenzen (.295 BABIP – 91.2 LOB% – 21.1 HR/FB) – LOB% and HR/FB don’t offset, leaving his ERA well below his estimators due to a 1.1 K-BB%, though there should be significant upside to his K% per his SwStr%, so maybe he makes it off this list when that’s realized.

Mike Pelfrey (.279 BABIP – 79.3 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – The BABIP is not obscene, but well below his career rate and the 3.6 K-BB% is well below his career rate too.

Wandy Rodriguez (.258 BABIP – 74.6 LOB% – 6.1 HR/FB)

NO THANK YOU

Archie Bradley

J.A. Happ – TB #3 offense vs LHP with 13.3 HR/FB and 13.1 HR/FB at home.

Jason Vargas

Jerome Williams

John Danks

Matt Garza

Odrisamer Despaigne

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Kyle Hendricks does have at least a league average SwStr% in each of his last two starts, but was below 4% in four of his previous six starts. The most recent does portray some potential upside to at least sustaining his current nearly league average K%, but there is some risk of a significant drop into obscurity here as well, which would then push his ERA estimators closer to four.

R.A. Dickey has his lowest SwStr% since he became good in 2010, but has been at least league average in five of nine starts this year. It’s been below 5% in the other four though. Regardless, there should be some upside in his K% and even more than his current SwStr% suggests with flashes of his league average career rate in there.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Alex Colome – Some of this you kind of have to throw out. He has a 16.1 HR/FB, but as mentioned above, all four of his HRs came in one start. The BABIP is a little misleading too because it’s been exactly .250 in three of his five starts. He’s basically had three good starts and two bad ones with no in between. I believe inconsistency is the word we’re searching for here. If you’re looking something more overall to support the separation in BABIP between him and the defense, he does have a 26.6 LD% and very high Z-Contact rate.

Clay Buchholz is still working off some early season issues, but has a BABIP that was hovering around .400 just a few starts ago down to .340. Although he still doesn’t have an IFFB, his 5.3 Hard-Soft% backs up his solid underlying metrics which show a career-best 18.9 K-BB% and 25.6 K%. His 64.6 LOB% should continue to adjust upwards too.

Clayton Kershaw has been a bit more hittable it seems. His 30.9 Hard% is a career high and his six HRs allowed already pace him well ahead of his career high of 16 set back in 2012. A 27.0 LD% on top of that leads to a .342 BABIP and 65.6 LOB% despite continued elite work in his Zone Contact rate. Brooks Baseball does show that the whiff rate on his slider is down from 28.85% to 21.31% this year with hitters slugging .382 against it. That might not sound like much, but they slugged just .226 against it last year. Hitters are also slugging nearly 100 points higher against his four-seam fastball (.466), so clearly, it’s not just the slider that’s been the issue. But the stuff is still awesome and I don’t doubt he’ll figure it out.

Danny Salazar is actually doing well with just a .313 BABIP as the Cleveland defense almost plays more against their pitchers than with them. The 17.9 HR/FB has hurt him and if he could just normalize that in a pitcher’s park half the time, he could really turn himself into something special.

Jeff Locke has a .331 BABIP and 65.6 LOB% and you may look at the fact that he has gotten just one pop up this year, but he’s a heavy groundball pitcher (1.85 GB/FB) with a solid 19.1 LD% and just a 3.5 Hard-Soft% this season, suggesting some better things in store for him, although the 7.4 K-BB% over the last month doesn’t speak as well.

Jesse Chavez has just a 4.0 HR/FB, keeping his FIP close to his ERA and lower than the other two estimators. Although that’s probably unsustainable, it’s not out of the question that he gets a bump from pitching often in Oakland.

Jordan Zimmerman has used a low 3.3 HR/FB that will probably regress some, but is backed by a 0.6 Hard-Soft% to offset a lot of what he’s lost in his strikeout rate this year. A 24.4 LD% and high Z-Contact% have kept his BABIP over .300 and his strand rate at 65.5% even with 11 pop ups already.

Madison Bumgarner doesn’t have the K rate he’s had the last two years or the K-BB% he had last year, but the strikeouts have come back some over the last month. The long issue is an 83.9 LOB% that is well above his career rate and should regress a bit. If he sustains his May K rate though, he might not see his ERA rise much overall when that happens though.

Matt Shoemaker – If you believe last year was a fluke and that he won’t be able to improve upon a 21.0 HR/FB and 64.4 LOB% then a 35.3 Hard% with a huge spike in fly ball rate (47.3%) might spell doom and you could even point to the velocity drop to enhance your point. The other side of the coin is that the velocity has increased a bit in May and the underlying numbers (Ks and BBs) are still basically the same as is a .275 BABIP. These HR rates usually do regress, if you believe he’s still a major league pitcher, and he had a slightly better than league average 9.4 HR/FB last year, which fits his home park.

Scott Feldman has a 10.6 K-BB% that isn’t great, but is better than last year and matches the rate from the previous two that got him a nice contract from Houston a couple of years ago. This is more due to a better walk rate than his strikeout rate bouncing back. What we’re looking at here are a BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB all out of whack and worse than career rates. The 16.7 HR/FB is far worse than anything he’s ever posted (10.5 career) and neither that, nor his 26.0 LD% are supported at all by his 21.0 Hard% this season. You should expect some regression here and there’s even been some upside in his K% over the last month, not to a league average level, but closer to what he’s presented in his better recent seasons.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Julio Teheran still profiles as a low BABIP pitcher with strong IFFB and Z-Contact rates. His other numbers are a little shaky though, including a 27.9 LD% and 30.0 Hard% that matches his career rate and also supports a higher HR rate this year.

R.A. Dickey – Knuckleball pitchers generally have a lot of the characteristics of a low BABIP and Dickey has both those and a sub .280 rate each year since 2010. This year it may look unsustainably low and though it might be, his defense has been really good, so maybe not. Thus, ERA estimators don’t necessarily work on them either, but he also has the lowest rate (65.5%) in a long time as well.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Clay Buchholz has been pitching well, but still has estimators and peripherals well ahead of his season numbers at this point. Perhaps, that’s what’s keeping him in a very affordable price range. Some of that may be countered by a tough home offense in a park that plays much more towards offense than a lot of people realize, but there’s a lot of upside here against a team that struggles against RHP with just a 4.7 Hard-Soft% against them.

Clayton Kershaw – I still believe! He still has the most elite price tag, but it seems to have dropped slightly on a couple of sites. He has an excellent matchup and though the Braves do strike out less often than most teams, they have been terrible vs LHP and have a 22.0 K% vs southpaws. Atlanta has a -9.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Kershaw is my top pitcher and value of the day.

Danny Salazar is the only one that comes close to matching the upside in Kershaw’s K% and a couple of weeks ago he would have been the no doubt high-upside play of the day, but the price tag has increased and the Rangers (particularly Prince Fielder) have been hitting the ball much better now that they seem to be healthy. I still like him a lot on some sites, but am conflicted about being all in on him in double ups tonight.

David Price is my second best overall pitcher regardless of cost behind Kershaw tonight because the A’s can’t hit LHP, but tag and fact that Oakland doesn’t strike out much leave him firmly in the 2nd tier in terms of value behind only Kershaw today. Although outcomes in any individual start are wide ranging, I feel like we might be looking at something like eight innings with a couple of runs and maybe five or six strikeouts tonight.

Jacob deGrom – Normally, I’d hesitate to recommend a pitcher who almost missed his last start, but considering how that turned out and that today he’s facing the Phillies, there can be an exception made. He’s right there with Price in terms of cost, overall potential, and value today for me, although he may have slightly more upside in his K-rate today.

Jordan Zimmermann has been better and although he’s not cheap, his price still hasn’t shot back up into the top tier yet today. With all the positive signs recently and the upside in his K% that the Cubs represent, there may be quite a bit of value here tonight.

Kyle Hendricks – To be clear, I am concerned about his ability to sustain his current K%, but he doesn’t walk anyone and keeps the ball in the park. Aside from Bryce Harper, the Nationals don’t have anybody that really scares you against RHP. I don’t expect him to shut them out, but he could generate some value beyond his price tag, which is mid-range or even quite low on some sites.

Madison Bumgarner has a great matchup against a team that can’t hit LHP, even though it seems like they should, but I don’t see that much excess value above his cost, which rivals Price and deGrom today, because his ERA is much lower than his estimators. Plus Gomez and Braun being hot do caution one a bit even with their overall numbers vs LHP. None the less, I will keep him here because he is Madison Bumgarner and has shown more upside in his K% over the last month and SwStr% much of the season.

Matt Shoemaker has allowed nine of his 13 HRs over his last four starts, but many people have gone broke predicting HR/FB rates above 20% to sustain. Maybe they haven’t, I’m making that up, but just the going broke part, not the HR/FB regression park. I have no idea who bets on these, but the overall point is that he may have some value tonight. Anyway, he represents the strong stomach play of the night as the potential that few will probably want to take a chance on due to recent results might be there in a great park against an offense that has severely under-performed. It’s all in the HR rate tonight.

R.A. Dickey has shown some recent glimpses of improvement and is in a great spot despite a tough park, against an offense that has been worst in baseball over the last week. His ability to induce weak contact and their inability to hit the ball hard should work in Dickey’s favor tonight.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.