Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, May 5th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-05-08 14:26:16

At the time that Tuesday’s stats were compiled, the Arizona/Colorado game was still in a delay. It has now been cancelled and the starters pushed back a day. Unfortunately, this information came too late to change Tuesday’s charts because it’s not a quick and easy process. Fortunately, we’re talking about two bad staffs in Colorado, so it’s likely that nobody cares anyway. Now let’s talk about some pitchers you might care about.

If you read yesterday, I’ve begun using my new made up stat for contact authority (Hard-Soft%) in the notes. It’s simply a derivative of the new stats at fangraphs that measure contact as either Hard, Medium, or Soft. The lower the number, the better for the pitcher with very few finding their way to a negative number.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

Andrew Cashner has allowed five HRs already after allowing just seven in 123 innings last year, but his ERA remains below three with his non-FIP estimators lower due to an 8 point increase in his K-BB to 20.9%. Four of his five HRs have come against the Dodgers, so we can’t call that a trend that would continue yet. The Padres outfield defense has been as bad as advertised, so the increase in strikeouts may have been a conscious shift, though it’s come with an increase in fly balls (32 so far, 117 last year). Cashner has a 4.01 xFIP on the road since the start of last year with just a 16.5 K% and 12.1 HR/FB, but moves from one great park to another in an otherwise neutral matchup tonight.

Bartolo Colon had his worst outing of the season last time out, but hasn’t walked a batter since the single one he allowed on opening day. He has just a 2.6 BB% at home as a Met. The Orioles are the fourth best offense vs RHP, with a 17.1 HR/FB, but a 23.4 K% against them. They have been cooled off overall by the situation in Baltimore and strange schedule it forced on them last week. They have some surprisingly low pop up rates for such a power based offense. When you combine Colon’s Hard-Soft rate (17.4%) over the past two years with the Orioles’ rate this year (13.2%), you get the second highest number of the day (30.6%) and highest for anyone who’s actually started a game this year. The potential is there for danger.

Bud Norris has gotten hammered in two of his four starts and been mediocre in his other two, while his contact authority rates haven’t changed all that much. He’s allowed a 14.5 HR/FB on the road since the start of last season, but the Mets have poor HR rates at home, vs RHP, and over the last week, in which they’ve also struck out nearly a quarter of the time with some of the coldest bats in the league as a team. Their 6.2 Hard-Soft% is the fourth worst team mark in the majors this season.

Chad Billingsley hasn’t pitched a major league game in over two years. Current velocity is in line with past velocity readings, but beyond that, what you’ll get is anybody’s guess.

Danny Salazar struck out seven of 25 Royals in his last start. It was his first effort with fewer than 10, but might be considered a success against this team with the lowest combined strikeout rate in today’s situations: 11.2% at home, 16% vs RHP, 15.3% over the last seven days. They are the 5th best home offense and 2nd best vs RHP, but have the 2nd worst Hard-Soft% (2.4) in baseball. That conflicts entirely with Salazar, who when contact is allowed, it is often hard. His hard hit rate is up to 40% this season with a 26.7 Hard-Soft% that is actually only 3rd worst among today’s starters. Salazar has the highest K rate (27.8%) of all of today’s pitchers over the last two calendar years and on the road (29.1%) since the start of last season. This will really be another clash of opposing forces, which will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Drew Smyly has just two starts to his credit this season and allowed two HRs in Yankee Stadium his last time out, but struck out 10. Boston represents somewhat of a neutral matchup here. A LHP may neutralize Ortiz and Sandoval, but the rest of their lineup leans RH. The Red Sox do have a 12.9 BB% and 16.7 HR/FB against LHP despite a below average wRC+. Smyly gets a small boost if Hanley is out after running into a wall last night.

Garrett Richards has walked at least three in each of his three starts (10 total) with a decreased strikeout rate that has dropped his K-BB to 5.5% in the early going. His velocity is down about a mile per hour. If Pitchf/x is to be believed, he is throwing a ton of cutters (37.9%), which is double the rate of any past season and over six times as often as last season. Why he’d want to change anything, who knows, but it’s resulted in a -22.4 Hard-Soft% to make up for the loss in strikeouts. Richards has just a 1.6 HR/FB at home since the start of last year. The Mariners have struggled for offense on the road, but with a team 16.2 HR/FB that nearly matches 16.7 rate over the last week. They have the 2nd Hard-Soft rate (16.8%) overall as a team.

James Paxton has struggled, but his K-BB has actually increased 5 points to 14.9%, while a lot of his batted ball rates have remained. His velocity is down, but he’s walking fewer batters and the results have actually been an improvement aside from strand rate, so we can’t know if taking something off and utilizing his change-up more often was an intentional effect or not. The Angels have the fourth best offense vs LHP and his name is Mike Trout. They have a 13.6 HR/FB vs southpaws, but have been otherwise cold this past week and have just 6.7 Hard-Soft% for the season.

Jason Vargas had a history of pitching well in Kansas City, but has been hit hard this season (22.9 Hard-Soft%) and over the last two weeks (33.3 Hard-Soft%) and walked five of these Clevelanders in his last start. The Tribe has been improved vs LHP, do not often strike out, and have been red hot overall.

Jeff Locke might not be pitching as bad as the results look. We’ll provide some hidden reasons for optimism later. Cincinnati hasn’t been the pushover they were last year. They strike out 23.1% vs LHP, but with a 15.1 HR/FB and have an 18.1 HR/FB over the last week.

Jeff Samardzija hasn’t been good and his peripherals bear that out with a significant drop in his K rate down to 15.6%. He’s also seen a significant rise in his line drive rate (28.4%) and huge drop in his GBs (35.8%), but not much change in his contact authority overall. He actually has an impressive 5.4 Hard-Soft%, very similar to last season. I’d worry about the K% and corresponding SwStr% drop of over 2 points, but not much else. The only change in his pitch mix seems to be a slight increase in sliders in regard to his fastball usage, but that doesn’t even make sense as sliders usually get more whiffs, but his has gone from 16.6% whiffs to 10.6% this year. Samardzija had his best start against the Tigers a few weeks ago, strikeout out seven. They’ve been the fourth best road offense and sixth best against RHP, but not that good lately.

Jesse Chavez makes his third start and has just a 1.5 K/BB in his first two, but does have a 0.0 Hard-Soft% on the season. He has a 14.0 HR/FB on the road since the start of last season and faces a red hot offense, one of the best at home.

Kyle Hendricks has increased his strikeout rate by 7 points despite over a 2 point drop in SwStr%. More about that later, but he faces a tough St Louis team that doesn’t necessarily hit for power, especially at home, but doesn’t strike out and has the 3rd best Hard-Soft (16.2%) in the majors.

Marco Estrada has pitched well in relief with a 26.8 K% and -8.3 Hard-Soft%, but gets his first start today and we know about his problems with HRs (12.1 career HR/FB). The Yankees are a patient team with a 12.5 HR/FB vs RHP and Toronto isn’t really an upgrade from Milwaukee as far as parks are concerned.

Mat Latos owns a stunning 45.1% hard hit rate that’s 3rd worst in the majors. More about that later, but he gets a tough Washington team that is on a bit of a roll as a team, if not so much offensively. They scored just one run in consecutive games over the weekend, but won both and have a 120 wRC+ over the last week.

Matt Garza hasn’t been good, but is coming off two of his better starts back to back. Unfortunately, he’s facing a team that absolutely mauls RHP. You’re probably getting sick of seeing me repeat their enormous HR rates every day, so there they are in the Batted Ball Chart below. They have struck out 27.5% of the time over the last week and that’s not even the league high.

Michael Lorenzen made his debut last week and was greeted by three solo HRs from Milwaukee, but otherwise pitched well, striking out five of the 24 batters he faced. He’s Cincinnati’s #2 prospect according to Fangraphs and has advanced quickly through the system with a hard fastball and good slider. The Pirates are a solid matchup. They’ve been poor at home and it’s a big park, but they do have a 14.5 HR/FB there. Their plate discipline has been horrendous.

Michael Pineda has been better than is immediately obvious, though his last two starts have gotten good results too. What surprises people most about him is his impeccable control, leading to a 23.6 K-BB%. The Blue Jays are the 3rd best home offense in baseball, with just a 16.7 K% and 14.8 HR/FB.

Rick Porcello has struggled on several fronts, but his K-BB has actually increased 3 points to 13.9%. His last start was the first in which he didn’t allow a HR and was easily his best of the season. His 40.1 FB% is only the second time his fly ball rate has surpassed 30% in a season, though he does own a very solid 5.2 Hard-Soft%. He has a solid matchup with a cold Tampa Bay offense that strikes out frequently with little power.

Ryan Vogelsong faces a cold San Diego offense in a great park, but is the sad owner of a 33.3 Hard-Soft%. He’s had the misfortune of being pounded by the Dodgers in each of his last two starts, but pitched poorly in extended relief in Petco against these Padres almost a month ago.

Scott Feldman is not missing any bats, but has also cut down on walks, allowing him to maintain at least an 8.7 K-BB%. He does have a 2.19 GB/FB and impressive 2.8 Hard-Soft%. His 63.2 Med% is actually 3rd highest in baseball, so he doesn’t allow a lot of soft or hard contact. Texas is a terrible road team and worst in the majors vs RHP with absolutely no power in either situation.

Shane Greene has gotten hammered for 15 runs over his last two starts, but actually struck out a season high eight in his most recent one. He has an excellent 1.0 Hard-Soft% and faces an offense with just a 5.4% mark so this should be an interesting game to watch from a batted ball perspective to see if these trends continue. In fact, when adding the two marks together, you get the lowest rate of the day by a good margin. The White Sox have unexpectedly been the 2nd worst home offense in baseball, in large part due to a 24.1 K%.

Shelby Miller is fooling traditional baseball fans again and we’ll tell you how later, but he faces the 2nd worst offense vs RHP and weakest hitting team overall (1.9 Hard-Soft%). They have just a 5.5 HR/FB on the road and 6.3 HR/FB vs RHP.

Stephen Strasburg is going to get the full treatment regarding his strikeouts and BABIP today. It’s well known that he’s been much better at home, but three of his last four starts have been on the road and while his best start came at home, it was against the Phillies, while his other home start vs the Mets was not good. He does own a 29.1 K% at home since the start of last season, has been missing a few more bats in recent starts, and faces a team that has struck out in 23% of road plate appearances.

Trevor May hasn’t pitched too poorly and we’ll look for some sneaky upside in his K% later. He has an unimpressive 19.1 Hard-Soft%, but that’s mostly due to being one of 14 starters with a 60+ Med%. He has a tough matchup tonight against an offense with some power that doesn’t strike out much.

Tyler Lyons makes his 2015 debut. He doesn’t throw hard at all, but does have the ability to miss bats with a 22.39 SwStr% on his slider. The Cubs are a tough matchup right now, but with just a 7.4 HR/FB against LHP in a park that’s hard to hit it out of. The upside is that they’ve struck out 27.2% vs LHP and a league high 30.2% over the last week.

Wandy Rodriguez is your Astros stack against a LHP take two? Are we all trying that again tonight? Somebody let me know on Twitter because I don’t want to be left out, but don’t want to look stupid doing it all by myself after last night.

Zack Greinke is in a perplexing spot. He pitches really well at home, but is on the road tonight. However, this used to be home and he pitched really well here. What does it mean? Thankfully, he pitches well on the road too. That was just a phase as they usually are for good pitchers. They can usually pitch anywhere (except maybe Colorado or Yankee Stadium if they’re right handed). We’ll really get into why his ERA is lower than his estimators later. Milwaukee has been a bit better as of late, but still terrible. They strike out at a rate above league average at home and against RHP, as well as over the last week.

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Bartolo Colon – This is par for the course for him, though his SwStr rate hasn’t topped 6.6% over his last four starts and has been as low as 3.3% twice.

Drew Smyly – Small sample size alert, but he induced 15 swings and misses in 87 pitches in his last outing vs the Yankees, which ended in him striking out 10 of the 22 batters he faced. I’m buying on an impressive SwStr% and stronger K% with his new team philosophy in Tampa Bay, which we saw some of last year, but nobody’s buying on something that high.

Jason Vargas – His current SwStr% is his lowest in many years, but that could bounce right up to his career average with one mediocre start. Either way, you’d expect his K rate to rise closer to his well below league average 15.4% career mark.

Kyle Hendricks got a strikeout for each swing and miss (six) in his last start and that’s just not sustainable. In fact, his K% might end up about half of what it currently sits if the SwStr% doesn’t pick up.

Ryan Vogelsong has only had a SwStr better than 4.4% in one of his starts. Imagine how much worse it would be if his K rate matched.

Stephen Strasburg – This is the one to dig into today. His other issues have been well publicized, but this is something new because he has a career 11.0 SwStr%. Unfortunately, it’s not very simple. Strasburg has a double digit SwStr% in two of his last three starts. That’s good news. He also has a rate between 5.2% and 5.5% in each of his other three starts. More good news is that his velocity is up a bit in his last two starts. Overall, his whiffs are significantly down on both his change-up and curveball. Because of his history, you tend to lean towards the improvement in more recent starts and just say that he got a bit lucky in his K-rate when the SwStr rate was down.

Trevor May had a SwStr below 11.3% for the first time in four starts his last time out, however, he’s struck out exactly four batters in three of his four starts. These weren’t high strikeout offenses he’s faced either. He may be someone to keep an eye on because maybe not against Oakland (another low strikeout team), but going forward he could be a sneaky source of K’s, which Minnesota pitchers aren’t known for.

Wandy Rodridguez has just two starts, but has been consistent with a 4.5 SwStr% followed up by a 4.0% performance.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Bud Norris has an unfathomable 39.0 LOB%, which is even crazier than the .355 BABIP. He has an 18.4 Hard-Soft% with a 24.6 LD% that’s complimented by a 3.4 K-BB%. It’s pretty sad all around, even if you expect him to chop his ERA in half or better.

Garrett Richards – With three starts in the books, he has just a 5.5 K-BB%, but the .229 BABIP makes it look like nothing’s changed to the untrained eye. The good news is that he had a .265 BABIP last year and some great contact authority numbers, which have been even crazier this year. Only 8.2% of the batted balls have been hit hard and 30.6% are noted as soft. That’s backed up by a 6.3 LD% (he’s only allowed three). If the command comes back quickly, he may be able to erase that gap by pulling his estimators down before the ERA goes up.

James Paxton – Four of his 28 fly balls have been HRs and he’s stranding just 55.6% of his runners. His other numbers aren’t bad.

Jeff Locke actually doesn’t have a HR allowed or IFFB through just 16 fly balls. His 21.7 LD% is nothing to talk about, but the 2.38 GB/FB is a solid number. His -8.5 Hard-Soft% is exceptional in just 22.2 innings with only 18.6% of his balls being hit hard. The BABIP looks like a total fluke and with a solidly league average 13.3 K-BB% in tow, you would definitely expect his 61.8 LOB% to improve as well.

Kyle Hendricks has a 60.3 LOB%, but his estimators aren’t picking up on the issues with his K% being unsustainable, in which case, the gap wouldn’t be nearly as large.

Mat Latos – I can quote the numbers, but he’s still essentially working off his horrid first start. It still won’t be good when or if he gets there. The BABIP is somewhat backed by the indicators in that chart plus a 30.4 LD% that’s higher than his 29.4 GB% and a 32.4 Hard-Soft%. This all leads to a 58.5 LOB%.

Michael Pineda – Two good starts in a row have gotten him on the right track, but not too many realize that he’s been better this year than last year when his ERA was two runs lower. The 23.6 K-BB% is elite stuff as he’s walked just two batters and there is nothing in any of his indicators that mark him as someone who should have a higher than normal BABIP, including batted ball mix and contact authority.

Ryan Vogelsong – Six of his last 13 fly balls (all against the Dodgers) have left the yard. His current 27.6 HR/FB can’t be sustainable simply because he pitches half his games in San Francisco. He probably shouldn’t be in a major league rotation right now.

Shelby Miller – His K-BB has improved just slightly to 9.2% this season even though his walk rate has increased to 10.1%. It’s really just some BABIP magic and an 87.3 LOB% that’s hiding his true self and there is nothing there that suggests any BABIP suppression abilities. In fact, his 23.5 LD% and 18.0 Hard-Soft% are both well worse than league average.

Zack Greinke exhibits all the classic signs of an ERA out performing it’s estimators. Those are low HR/FB (two of 30 fly balls), low BABIP (.231), and high LOB% (85.1). It’s the BABIP we’ll examine. After four straight seasons of a LD rate above 21.5%, he shows up with a 17.4% rate so far this season. He has an exactly league average career pop up rate, so we shouldn’t expect any surprises with that when it’s all said and done. He’s sitting at a 10.8 Hard-Soft% that’s very close to league average over the last two years, but has an impressive 6.4% rate this year. All in all, he’s exhibited some of the signs you’d expect to see in a lower BABIP, but does that mean he can sustain one going forward? Maybe, but not this low.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Stephen Strasburg – I wanted to put him down here by himself because this isn’t new. Though he finished with a reasonable .315 BABIP last year, Strasburgh struggled with his BABIP closer to .350 for most the year. Right off the bat, he has a 13.8 Hard-Soft% over the last two years, which is a little bit worse than league average. This year, however, it’s only 6.5%, which means he’s been good at managing contact authority. His Z-Contact is higher than league average for the first time ever (85.9% career rate). He has had exactly 12 IFFBs in each of the last three years and already has four this season. One spot where he has struggled is his line drive rate that’s been exactly 22.7% in two of the last three years and is 22.8% so far this year. All that is a long winded way of saying that with the absence of exceptional defense, yeah, he may profile as a slightly higher BABIP kind of guy, though much closer to .300 than .400.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Andrew Cashner might not come as cheap as you like, but offers some strong upside with the increased K% this season. He’s in a great park tonight against a mediocre offense and may even have some hidden value as most of his struggles this season have come against the Dodgers.

Danny Salazar is not very cheap either, but still affordable in most places. He offers tremendous upside that might be dampened by Kansas City, but he should still generate some strikeouts (seven against them in his last start) and they should help temper his hard hit tendencies.

Drew Smyly is a little cheaper than the previous two just about everywhere. An opposing pitcher in Fenway could be a bit scary, but we’ve already seen glimpses of what he’s capable of since the trade to Tampa Bay with the new high fastball philosophy. He gets a bump with Hanley likely out tonight too.

James Paxton was not as good as his ERA said last year, nor is he as bad as it looks this year. The great thing is that his price is low and his issues seem easily fixable, if they even have to be fixed rather than fixing themselves. He’s already pitched well against the Angels once this season and is catching them while they’re cold. Like I said above, it’s a one man band in this part of LA right now.

Jeff Locke is probably not on many radars tonight, which is one reason he should be on yours. The Reds have shown some power this year, but Pittsburgh is a tough park on RH power and Locke keeps the ball on the ground, while doing an exceptional job on contact management this season. The increase in his K% to a league average rate seems real and he’s cheap across the board.

Michael Lorenzen is a prospect of some pedigree and shouldn’t be a rock bottom price with a solid matchup in a good park. The Pirates should send some strikeouts his way. This is an easy guy to throw into some GPP lineups at this price and not even need much to come out way ahead.

Michael Pineda – Toronto is a tough team, especially at home, which is why I like him rather than love him tonight. Pineda has pitched well all season, but has just begun seeing results. At least if he gives up a bomb or two, which he’s also done well with, there won’t be any walks ahead of it.

Rick Porcello – I’m going to write his name here, but can’t find any compelling reason to use him except that Tampa Bay has been weak offensively and tends to strike out quite a bit, while he’s struck out a few more this season.

Ryan Vogelsong – If you really want to go dumpster diving, he’s not facing the Dodgers, and is in a great park, where he’s had success before, vs a slumping offense at a great price. He could go five innings with three runs and just a few strikeouts and it wouldn’t really hurt you, while allowing you to afford more offense. I’d probably rather look for upside in someone like Lorenzen though at an even cheaper price.

Shane Greene may be a super contrarian play due to his last few outings, but has actually done a great job managing contact against a team that has trouble hitting the ball hard or often hitting the ball at all at home. I don’t know why they’ve struggled so much at home and would expect them to snap out of that at some point, but it is what it is and we should probably take advantage of it. For the price tag, Greene has the potential to be one of the top values of the day, but at a risk.

Stephen Strasburg is at the top of your board with the last guy, but hasn’t had the expected results yet. He has generally pitched well at home though and has shown some uptrends in his swings and misses late. Maybe you want to take an educated guess and be out front of a guy like this when some signs are pointing the right way, rather than wait until everyone else is back on him. I guess that’s kind of a half-hearted endorsement due to the tremendous upside he always carries when he puts it together.

Tyler Lyons is another bottom of the board pitcher with some upside in his K rate, which I think actually gives him a reasonable floor tonight for the price, even if he gets tagged.

Zack Greinke is in a tough park tonight, but has a strong matchup and is probably the most stable pitcher today with the longest track record of success.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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