Advanced Stats Pitching Charts - Wed 9/17
After skipping the 2 day games, which include 2 unknown pitchers and a game in Colorado, we’re left with 13 for Wednesday night. With several stud lefties as your potential top targets, let’s see who else we can try to pull some value out of on this board. And as usual, tomorrow’s an off day and then back Friday.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. 2013+ is since the start of that season. Combo stats are explained below.
Adam Wainwright – has been very good at home over the last 2 years and had his best start in while, in terms of process, last time out with 8 K’s and 1 ER over 8 IP. His walk rate is almost minimal and although they’ve been above average recently, the Brewers walk just 6.2% of the time on the road.
Alex Cobb – is great at home and faces a cold NYY team. He may not be as good as his numbers lately though. We’ll look more below. He does a great job at limiting hard contact with an 18.5 LD% over the last 2 seasons.
Alex Wood – we get 3 of the top home pitchers out of the way right away. Wood has been a find and is coming off a 9 K performance where he allowed just 1 ER. He has a 28.3 K% with an 18 LD% at home over the last 2 years.
Brandon McCarthy – sees his K% on the lower end in today’s chart in part because he’s facing a tough team to strike out. There’s not a single K rate above 20% in his line below.
Brett Oberholtzer – Cleveland falls into “just a guy” territory on the road vs LHP, but he hasn’t been a very good LHP. K’s may be hard to come by, but he doesn’t walk anyone either and does a good job keeping the ball in the park. The Tribe has a 6.7 HR/FB vs LHP.
Bud Norris – is coming off 7 shutout innings with 10 K’s, but faces the #2 offense vs RHP. The Blue Jays have an 11.9 HR/FB on the road and Norris allowed 4 at TB just 2 starts back.
C.J. Wilson – has been mediocre in his best starts recently, but faces the 2nd worst offense vs LHP. They have just a 6.0 BB% vs LHP, but he has a 10.1 BB% over the past 2 seasons. Neither side seems to be interested in popping the ball up as shown in the batted ball chart below.
Carlos Carrasco – had his 1st mis-step since being put back into the rotation vs the mighty Tigers last time out. He had a string of 4 starts with at least 7 K’s snapped and is facing a very high K% team in Houston. He has allowed at least 6 LD’s in 4 straight starts.
Chris Sale – one of the top pitchers in baseball faces the 2nd worst home offense. The Royals may pull down his K rate just a bit, but he should still accumulate a few. They also pull down his HR rate with just a 5.9 HR/FB at home.
Clay Buchholz – has been more effective lately, but faces the 2nd best home offense and 2nd hottest offense in baseball.
Cole Hamels – has been more average than elite recently, but a trip to Petco to face by far the worst hitting team vs LHP has the potential to change that.
Daniel Corcino – was ok in his first major league start, but pretty terrible in the relief appearance preceding it. He has just 8.2 big league innings and wasn’t very good in the minors. A matchup with the 3rd worst home offense and tied for 5th worst vs RHP can make a lot of pitchers useful though.
David Price – the Twins can do some hitting at home, but Price should greatly hamper their 9.6 home BB%. In fact, he has the day’s top K-BB% (18.1) using the numbers in the main chart.
Derek Holland – the new and interesting version of the lefty goes to Oakland to face the best home offense, but also one of the coldest sets of bats in the majors.
Dillon Gee – shows us the day’s reddest HR/FB. The Marlins have a mark above 10% both on the road and vs RHP, though that’s likely much less without Stanton. He has been known to allow them with 4 in his last 3 starts.
Eric Stults – is not good, but may have the best park adjusted matchup of the day. Petco can hide a lot of faults, although he still may not be able to escape the long ball entirely.
Francisco Liriano- should neutralize Boston’s best hitter, if he even plays in an NL park, and has been making just about everybody who swings miss the ball lately. Walks may still be an issue and Boston does that 8.6% of the time vs LHP.
Gio Gonzalez – is apparently too drunk to pitch, but nobody cares about sending a rookie out there with a hangover to take his place.
Henderson Alvarez – shows you the day’s greenest BB% against a patient team because he has just a 3.7% mark on the road over the last 2 seasons. K’s will similarly be at a premium though. The Mets are not a high K% team at home or vs RHP.
J.A. Happ – we’ve failed at Toronto pitchers 2 days in a row (though Hutchison did pile up the K’s), but he has a real chance tonight if the O’s haven’t stopped drinking yet.
James Paxton – has been good, but probably not as great as his ERA suggests. The lefty smashing Angels may expose him. Every walk rate in his line in the chart directly below is league average or higher.
Jeff Samardzija – has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 3 of his last 4 and just snapped a 3 game streak with at least 9 K’s. He faces the worst offense vs RHP in his comfy home park tonight.
Kyle Gibson – has taken a beating in 4 of 5 starts over the last month. It’s fair to say that while he may have some talent, he just wasn’t ready for the majors this season. But he is here, so analyze we must. The Tigers are also here and may pulverize him in what may be the day’s toughest park adjusted matchup. They are both the 3rd best home and vs RHP offense. He has more HR’s allowed (2) than K’s (1) over his last 2 starts.
Kyle Hendricks – had been doing a great job limiting damage on balls in play until his last 2 starts. A low walk rate will help compensate for lack of K’s more in the real world, but he does face the 4th worst road offense and tied for 2nd worst vs RHP. He also comes in with the greenest HR/FB of the day despite pitching in Chicago.
Mike Fiers – takes his smoke and mirrors act to St Louis to face a team that can still put up some offense at home. He has a 29.4 K% on the road over the past 2 seasons, but the confidence level in that can be questioned and we will later.
Yordano Ventura – has walked at least 4 in 4 of his last 6 starts, but has somehow not been getting punished for it.
Combo K/BB Chart
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but were originally due to space limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows, but now, you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
Combo Batted Ball Chart
Ditto for the Combo Batted Ball stats in the Main Chart above.
K/SwStr Chart
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing can make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Alex Cobb – we see that he has lost something off his SwStr% over the last month, by 2.4 percentage points with no related drop in K%. In fact, he’s maxed out at 7.6% over his last 4 starts. He’s thrown at least 150 professional innings in 3 straight seasons and the velocity is steady so I can’t say he’s tired. It may just be something to keep in mind for his last couple of starts.
C.J. Wilson – I’m as skeptical about Wilson’s league average K rate as I am every time I write about him. I can only add that his 9.3 SwStr% in his last start was his best work in 13 starts. If that gives you more confidence in him, here’s the downer…..it was against Houston.
David Price – this is mostly about that one terrible start still sticking in there a few weeks back with a 1.9 SwStr%, but he did have a 5.7 SwStr% in his last start, which is his second lowest mark of the season.
Derek Holland – he’s had an 11+ SwStr% in all 3 starts now. If he keeps this up, now and next season, better things are sure to come for his K rate.
Francisco Liriano – over his last 6 starts, his low mark is a 12.6 SwStr%. On four occasions, he’s been above 15%. I guess the better question is how long he can maintain this SwStr% because it’s inhuman.
J.A. Happ – if there skepticism on his K% for the season, there’s definitely more of it when the K% rises with no budge in SwStr%. His SwStr has exceed 7% only once over his last 6 starts.
Kyle Gibson – just refuses to conform, although his last start was just an epic fail. He failed to strike out a single batter with a season low 1.7 SwStr%.
Kyle Hendricks – followed up a 1.3 SwStr% performance with an 11.0% mark against Toronto of all teams. I’d figure the soft tosser to settle in around a 15 K% sooner or later without a change in approach or stuff.
Mike Fiers – his 12.2 SwStr% in the last start was his 2nd best of the season. He did this in 2012, but then didn’t anymore and was banned to the minors in 2013. Now the magic is back, but how long will it last?
ERA Estimators Chart
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Alex Cobb – has things going his way right now, but this is the first time he’s been doing some things that we’re not sure he can keep up. Mainly the .229 BABIP, 82.1 LOB%, and 0 HR’s over his last 5 starts.
Brett Oberholtzer – has been getting shelled, but has a respectable 14.5 K-BB% over the last month. What’s not respectable is his .379 BABIP and 49.8 LOB%.
Clay Buchholz – has put together some solid work lately, but still has just a 63.7% strand rate on the season.
David Price – this is still about that one damn start that I’ve had to write is killing his numbers for the 4th time now and might have to once more before we’re done. His BABIP for the month is .371, though it has been above .310 in each of his last 4 now. Welcome to the Detroit experience.
Henderson Alvarez – the issue here remains that 5 of his 13 HR’s allowed this year have come in his last 4 starts. It’s the reason his ERA matches his FIP, but is so far away from the other 2 numbers.
James Paxton – shut down Oakland in his last start, but his 8 K’s were the first time he struck out more than 5 since his 1st start on 4/2. That’s encouraging and while the estimators don’t take it into account because it’s not entirely in his control, the .255 BABIP may be sustainable with his current defense, though the 80.8 LOB% might be a touch too high to expect going forward.
Kyle Gibson – you may want to turn away now. His line over the last month, in which he’s taken several beatings: .365 BABIP, 58.4 LOB%, 23.1 HR/FB.
Kyle Hendricks – the soft tosser is going to have to be creative to be successful without missing bats, but it’s possible. A .268 BABIP with this defense isn’t very likely though and a 4.5 HR/FB pitching half your games at Wrigley is even less so.
Yordano Ventura – over the last month (4 starts) he’s sporting an 11.1 BB%, but hasn’t allowed a single HR. Some HR suppression is possible in Kansas City, but he’s going to want to get things under control before he starts allowing at least a few.
BABIP Chart
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
Brandon McCarthy – has been working to bring his BABIP into range since the first month. It has been below .300 in 4 of his last 5 starts.
C.J. Wilson – his team’s defense suggests a better BABIP, but his 22.9 LD% and other indicators suggest it might be fine where it is.
Carlos Carrasco – even with an 18.7 LD% and strong Z-Contact%, it’s hard to maintain a sub-.300 BABIP with Cleveland without the pop ups.
Chris Sale – has some strong indicators, including an 18.5 LD% and the best Z-Contact% in baseball. I’m still ok with this BABIP under those circumstances.
Dillon Gee – when he allows hard contact, he likes to make sure it leaves the yard. Aside from an 18.5 LD% though, there really isn’t any reason he can sustain this mark, which probably makes him a prime trade candidate for the Mets this off season.
Kyle Gibson Kyle Hendricks Mike Fiers – I believe I lumped them all together last time too. Each has a low BABIP predicated on super elite IFFB rates. Fiers also includes an elite Z-Contact% (which maybe should give him a bit more credit for his K% than I have), but is also the furthest away from an accepted mark. Only Gibson (19%) has a LD rate below 20%. He’s also the least likely candidate for regression with current indicators.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Adam Wainwright – although it’s gotten better and I’m not going to actively try and ward people off him anymore, I’m not sure I’m back on board yet at current prices.
Alex Cobb – yes, some of the metrics he can’t control have been really favorable lately, but he’s still an excellent pitcher in a great park, facing an inferior offense at a lower price than Wainwright and others in most places.
Alex Wood – is an even barely cheaper option with great upside facing a potentially hungover team. Keep an eye on the lineup the Nats run out there.
Brandon McCarthy – outside of 2 rough starts on the road against top offenses, he continues to be a success for the Yankees (13.2 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 10 K since). The Rays are a better home offense than most people give them credit for, but McCarthy is pretty much smack in the middle of most boards and has some upside.
Carlos Carrasco – I’m going to jump right back on board, especially when your rough start was against the Tigers and you get to follow it up with Houston. He too, is in the middle of most boards, priced similarly to McCarthy, with the potential to be your top K guy tonight if nothing else.
Chris Sale – shares the top spot on the board today with another lefty, but it’s really borderline whether he has much value beyond the price tag. He’s facing a poor offense, but a tough one to strike out, though he should still get a few. There may be some better options with more upside at cheaper prices today.
Cole Hamels – while I’m still not in love with the elite price tag considering recent performance, the Padres in Petco can make a lot of pitchers a lot better quickly.
David Price – similar to Sale, he’s always an option for the top performance on any given night, but the exorbitant price tag in this spot makes me wonder if he has that much value beyond it. He still goes deep in games and generates K’s almost every time out though, so it’s not like I want to talk you off him. I just might look at guys like Liriano, Carrasco, and even Samardzija with similar upside in better spots at cheaper prices.
Derek Holland – has now gone exactly 7 IP in each of his 3 starts, allowing a total of 2 ER’s. He’s also a prime candidate for an increase in K rate considering his double digit SwStr% in each start. Moderately priced against the best home offense in baseball, some people may shy away, but considering how they’ve performed over the last month or so makes him a more attractive option.
Eric Stults – if we’re going to consider the other end at a high price, we have to consider the side with potentially the better matchup in this park at a rock bottom price, right? At least one punt like option needs to be mentioned today with almost all of your reasonable options on the top half of the board tonight.
Francisco Liriano – sits on the top half of the board, but below the top price tags, but has the potential for the top performance tonight. He’s struck out 21 of his last 52 batters faced (albeit against Phi & ChC) and I must repeat his 16.6 SwStr% over the last month in which he’s consistently been above 12.5% in every start.
Jeff Samardzija – has been pitching well and with a price tag a bit below the top tier in most places, gets a crack at the worst offense vs RHP in his spacious home park. His SwStr and K rates over the last month are shadowed only because of Liriano today. On most days they’d be the best on the board.
Mike Fiers – I’m going to leave this up to you. Well, it’s always up to you ultimately, but if you believe in the K rate then he might be worth his now upper half of the board price tag and maybe a little more. If you think he’s a prime regression candidate and don’t want the risk, there are plenty of other options as we see.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.