Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, April 15th
We’re covering just 11 night games on Wednesday because the early games have a first pitch just after noon eastern and you’re very likely watching those before you’re reading this. As always, we’re looking to see if we can find things under the surface, or even under the surface of that surface, which might give us an advantage that other daily fantasy players won’t see.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ | CombK% | CombBB% | CombLD% | CombHR/FB% | CombIFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | DET | -7.6 | 4.07 | 6.1 | 1.45 | 0.91 | 4.13 | 4.83 | PIT | 61 | 82 | 83 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 22.4% | 11.1% | 3.8% |
| Brandon Morrow | SDG | -0.8 | 4.17 | 5.27 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 3.82 | 2.76 | ARI | 86 | 78 | 75 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 21.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.4 | 3.53 | 5. | 2.63 | 0.89 | 4.91 | 3.5 | SEA | 82 | 75 | 90 | 18.4% | 6.7% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 8.0% |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 11.8 | 4.04 | 5.79 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 3.82 | 5.08 | NYY | 78 | 91 | 103 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 22.7% | 9.9% | 6.6% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 1.8 | 3.78 | 5.41 | 1.12 | 0.84 | 3.76 | 3.72 | SDG | 125 | 109 | 123 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 20.0% | 12.1% | 10.9% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -12.9 | 3.4 | 5.91 | 1.31 | 1.01 | 3.25 | 2.79 | OAK | 130 | 134 | 134 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 23.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% |
| Drew Pomeranz | OAK | 4.7 | 3.98 | 5.07 | 1.28 | 1.01 | 3.86 | 2.46 | HOU | 36 | 107 | 81 | 26.8% | 9.1% | 16.5% | 11.2% | 14.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 8.8 | 4.2 | 5.79 | 1.55 | 1.05 | 4.15 | 3.81 | MIN | 74 | 57 | 56 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 21.9% | 7.1% | 13.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 1 | 4.4 | 5.11 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 4.78 | 5.09 | TOR | 21 | 74 | 74 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 21.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -6.7 | 3.52 | 5.89 | 2 | 0.91 | 3.78 | 3.44 | DET | 146 | 149 | 151 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 21.0% | 12.8% | 7.7% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 6.5 | 5.04 | 5.91 | 1.93 | 1.05 | 2.64 | CHC | 67 | 89 | 102 | ||||||
| Jerome Williams | PHI | -4.9 | 4.2 | 5.73 | 1.46 | 0.88 | 4.28 | 2.65 | NYM | 138 | 79 | 93 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 22.9% | 8.1% | 14.0% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 1.3 | 3.85 | 6.12 | 1.72 | 0.88 | 3.49 | 3.45 | PHI | 106 | 107 | 85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 22.7% | 20.1% | 7.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -3.3 | 4.41 | 5.57 | 1.93 | 1.05 | 3.83 | 9.03 | KAN | 148 | 172 | 151 | 11.8% | 9.7% | 22.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.2 | 3.75 | 6.17 | 1.22 | 0.98 | 3.96 | 1.51 | MIL | 62 | 78 | 87 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 21.9% | 4.1% | 10.6% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | -1 | 4.24 | 6.28 | 1.3 | 1.05 | 4.09 | 5.95 | TAM | 105 | 127 | 109 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.9% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.5 | 4.08 | 5.98 | 1.34 | 1.04 | 4.09 | 5 | BAL | 132 | 121 | 112 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 24.3% | 13.6% | 9.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -1.4 | 4.01 | 5.22 | 1.43 | 0.89 | 3.69 | 4.7 | LOS | 161 | 150 | 140 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 24.9% | 16.7% | 7.3% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0.2 | 3.73 | 5.93 | 1.56 | 0.87 | 3.83 | 3.47 | COL | 144 | 132 | 112 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 21.0% | 9.2% | 4.3% |
| Travis Wood | CHC | -0.6 | 4.42 | 5.9 | 0.77 | 1.05 | 3.78 | 4.22 | CIN | 88 | 100 | 87 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 28.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | -1.2 | 4.11 | 6.05 | 1.6 | 0.87 | 4.01 | 4.86 | SFO | 68 | 15 | 76 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 19.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -1.3 | 4.03 | 5.98 | 1.84 | 0.98 | 4.06 | 4.58 | STL | 95 | 89 | 91 | 15.4% | 8.1% | 20.4% | 8.9% | 10.7% |
NOTE – Team defense stats are still 2014 as they’re not available for 2015 yet.
Brandon Morrow struck out or induced a ground ball from 16 of the 24 Giants he faced. Pitch F/X says he’s developed a new knuckle-curve. This one’s at home against a D’Back offense that hasn’t shown much power yet (see Batted Ball chart below).
Brett Anderson making his second consecutive start without an injury might be some kind of record. He was solid in his Dodger debut, as you would expect from him when healthy.
Bud Norris got hammered in his 2015 debut. We’ll dissect more aspects of that start below to see if it was really as bad as it looked. He’ll be facing a lineup that leans heavily left handed at home tonight.
Chase Anderson can miss some bats and may have some success in a bigger park. He faces the new and improved San Diego offense, though.
Collin McHugh picked up where he left off last year. Despite the large turnover, the Oakland offense hasn’t missed a beat yet either.
Drew Pomeranz was great against Seattle. The Astros have struck out in over a quarter of their plate appearances so far.
Erasmo Ramirez was hammered for seven runs in two innings of relief last week. The Rays must be giving him this start to help him get his ERA below nine. That might not happen in Toronto.
Franciso Liriano walked hitters and missed bats in his first start because that’s what he does. He’ll have an interesting matchup against a tough lineup that leans heavily RH.
Jason Marquis was actually pretty good against the Cardinals. He has to get hammered here, no? When is Kris Bryant getting here, anyway?
Jerome Williams puts up another quality start and you’re left scratching your head again. He got 16 Nationals to swing and miss, a number he didn’t come close to last year. The Mets will be without David Wright and possibly Michael Cuddyer, after both were injured last night.
Jon Niese wasn’t incredibly sharp against the Braves, but 15 of his 21 batted balls were grounders. The Phillies haven’t been as terrible as expected offensively yet and even hit a few HRs last night.
Kyle Gibson was a sleeper pick for me to turn his 8.8 SwStr% last year into a spike in his 14.1 K% this year. He walked five Tigers without a strike out last week. I’m glad I kept my mouth shut. It doesn’t get much easier last week against a Kansas City offense that came out smoking.
Lance Lynn dominated the Cubs in his first start. The Milwaukee offense has been a disappointment to start the season and Lynn does not allow the ball to leave the park at home (career 4.7 HR/FB in 309 innings).
Nathan Eovaldi amped up the usage on all of his secondary pitches against Boston, including 13.8% on his splitter/changeup, which has been dormant in the past. In fact, he threw his heater less than 50% of the time. The results? Not so different. He has another tough matchup in Baltimore tonight. Welcome to the AL East.
Taijuan Walker may have walked just two of the 21 batters Oakland batters he faced, but seemed to be 2-0 on most of them, which allowed them to sit on and hammer the strikes he followed with.
Tim Lincecum is going to drive you nuts no matter what you do. The results were good against the Padres, but he averaged just 87.3 mph on his fastball.
Tyler Matzek did not last long against the Cubs, but allowed only a single run, despite walking three. He was nearly a league average pitcher on the road last year. He might enjoy pitching in San Francisco. The Giants have faced a LHP in just a league low 30 plate appearances this year, but have also done the least amount of damage against them.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 16.1% | 7.1% | Road | 15.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Brandon Morrow | Padres | 19.3% | 9.5% | Home | 26.7% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 12.5% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 18.0% | 8.3% | Home | 8.8% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Bud Norris | Orioles | 19.5% | 8.1% | Home | 19.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 21.9% | 8.5% | Road | 22.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 13.6% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 22.4% | 6.3% | Home | 25.2% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Athletics | 22.0% | 11.1% | Road | 19.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 18.0% | 9.2% | Road | 16.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 3.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 17.7% | 9.4% | Road | 16.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.0% | 10.6% | Home | 20.4% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 11.5% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 14.9% | 13.2% | Road | L14 Days | 28.0% | 8.0% | ||
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 15.6% | 7.4% | Road | 14.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 4.4% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.4% | 6.4% | Home | 19.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 13.4% | 8.1% | Home | 12.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 21.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.1% | 8.5% | Home | 19.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 4.6% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 14.8% | 5.6% | Home | 13.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 3.9% | 7.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.6% | 6.3% | Road | 15.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 20.3% | 10.0% | Road | 21.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 21.6% | 8.8% | Home | 20.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Travis Wood | Cubs | 18.1% | 8.8% | Home | 23.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 9.1% |
| Tyler Matzek | Rockies | 18.1% | 9.0% | Road | 19.6% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 17.1% | 8.0% | Road | 15.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 0.0% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 21.0% | 0.0% | RH | 25.8% | 4.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 5.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.7% | 9.2% | RH | 23.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 24.0% | 6.6% | LH | 18.6% | 3.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.9% | 4.2% | RH | 20.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.4% |
| Padres | Home | 18.6% | 8.0% | RH | 20.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 14.7% | 5.3% | RH | 16.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 13.2% | 7.3% |
| Astros | Home | 32.0% | 11.8% | LH | 33.3% | 12.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 9.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.2% | 3.0% | RH | 23.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 11.6% | 7.2% | RH | 18.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.0% | 10.5% | LH | 20.8% | 16.7% | L7Days | 18.0% | 11.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.7% | 9.3% | RH | 23.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.7% |
| Mets | Home | 13.0% | 11.7% | RH | 19.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.6% | 4.2% | LH | 17.9% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Road | 16.2% | 6.4% | RH | 14.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 14.1% | 6.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 16.7% | 2.8% | RH | 21.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.7% |
| Rays | Road | 19.7% | 11.6% | LH | 24.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 13.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.0% | 7.0% | RH | 25.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 6.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.0% | 10.3% | RH | 19.5% | 10.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 15.2% | 4.0% | RH | 15.9% | 4.4% | L7Days | 18.9% | 4.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.5% | 2.6% | LH | 23.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.3% |
| Giants | Home | 18.4% | 13.2% | LH | 23.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 14.0% | 14.0% | RH | 18.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 20.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | Road | 21.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Morrow | Padres | 19.6% | 12.6% | 5.3% | Home | 19.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 16.4% | 11.9% | 5.1% | Home | 13.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Bud Norris | Orioles | 21.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | Home | 23.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 24.1% | 13.8% | 9.8% | Road | 25.8% | 13.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 24.7% | 11.0% | 9.9% | Home | 25.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Athletics | 18.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% | Road | 19.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% | Road | 17.4% | 13.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.5% | 13.4% | 6.5% | Road | 18.1% | 13.8% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.5% | 10.2% | 5.8% | Home | 19.7% | 11.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Marquis | Reds | 20.8% | 17.4% | 6.5% | Road | L14 Days | 6.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 21.9% | 12.3% | 7.2% | Road | 21.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 22.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | Home | 23.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 19.6% | 9.3% | 12.1% | Home | 23.3% | 3.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 21.2% | 6.5% | 11.3% | Home | 17.0% | 3.1% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.9% | 8.4% | 11.1% | Home | 22.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | Road | 24.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 26.1% | 6.1% | 12.2% | Road | 29.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 23.1% | 13.0% | 7.0% | Home | 23.4% | 12.0% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Travis Wood | Cubs | 23.0% | 7.9% | 13.5% | Home | 24.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Matzek | Rockies | 20.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | Road | 20.1% | 10.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.9% | 12.8% | 8.8% | Road | 16.4% | 9.6% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% | RH | 20.5% | 14.3% | 1.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.2% | 0.0% | 6.7% | RH | 23.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 16.0% | 17.5% | 10.5% | LH | 16.0% | 12.5% | 16.7% | L7Days | 16.6% | 17.1% | 10.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 16.7% | 15.8% | 5.3% | RH | 19.4% | 13.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.0% | 13.9% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Home | 18.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | RH | 16.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.1% | 20.0% | 6.7% | RH | 23.7% | 8.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.5% | 12.9% |
| Astros | Home | 16.0% | 5.7% | 14.3% | LH | 7.7% | 27.3% | 0.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.8% | 10.3% |
| Twins | Home | 36.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | RH | 18.9% | 2.5% | 30.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 3.6% | 25.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.4% | 0.0% | 11.1% | RH | 19.8% | 7.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 5.7% | 12.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 15.4% | 7.7% | LH | 20.7% | 9.1% | 18.2% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.3% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 18.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | RH | 15.7% | 14.5% | 10.9% | L7Days | 14.7% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Mets | Home | 23.6% | 4.0% | 16.0% | RH | 22.1% | 1.5% | 18.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.6% | 15.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 24.4% | 23.5% | 11.8% | LH | 23.7% | 16.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Royals | Road | 24.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | RH | 21.9% | 14.6% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | RH | 21.9% | 7.1% | 14.3% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.7% | 10.3% |
| Rays | Road | 17.4% | 7.5% | 3.8% | LH | 16.0% | 12.5% | 4.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 24.2% | 24.3% | 16.2% | RH | 19.5% | 23.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 20.0% | 15.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.0% | 21.4% | 4.8% | RH | 21.0% | 21.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 20.4% | 6.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.5% | 11.1% | 4.4% | RH | 22.9% | 10.4% | 4.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Reds | Road | 31.7% | 0.0% | 18.8% | LH | 34.5% | 14.3% | 0.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.3% | 14.0% |
| Giants | Home | 14.0% | 0.0% | 7.7% | LH | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | RH | 20.9% | 9.8% | 17.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
K/SwStr Chart
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 13.0% | 1.3% | 10.00 | 13.0% | 1.3% | 10.00 |
| Brandon Morrow | SDG | 29.2% | 17.1% | 1.71 | 29.2% | 17.1% | 1.71 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 16.7% | 6.4% | 2.61 | 16.7% | 6.4% | 2.61 |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 5.6% | 10.6% | 0.53 | 5.6% | 10.6% | 0.53 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 27.3% | 8.0% | 3.41 | 27.3% | 8.0% | 3.41 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 16.7% | 11.8% | 1.42 | 16.7% | 11.8% | 1.42 |
| Drew Pomeranz | OAK | 27.3% | 8.7% | 3.14 | 27.3% | 8.7% | 3.14 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.2% | 9.5% | 1.81 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 1.81 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 13.3% | 12.0% | 1.11 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 1.11 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 26.9% | 16.3% | 1.65 | 26.9% | 16.3% | 1.65 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 28.0% | 9.6% | 2.92 | 28.0% | 9.6% | 2.92 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 26.1% | 16.1% | 1.62 | 26.1% | 16.1% | 1.62 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 7.7% | 1.2% | 6.42 | 7.7% | 1.2% | 6.42 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.0% | 7.9% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 7.9% | 0.00 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 40.9% | 12.6% | 3.25 | 40.9% | 12.6% | 3.25 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 3.9% | 4.8% | 0.81 | 3.9% | 4.8% | 0.81 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.0% | 4.3% | 0.93 | 4.0% | 4.3% | 0.93 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 14.3% | 6.5% | 2.20 | 14.3% | 6.5% | 2.20 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 |
| Travis Wood | CHC | 22.7% | 11.1% | 2.05 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 2.05 |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 19.1% | 9.5% | 2.01 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 2.01 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 7.7% | 8.0% | 0.96 | 7.7% | 8.0% | 0.96 |
There’s a lot of variance in game to game SwStr%. Let’s talk about a few things that really stand out from these pitchers’ first starts.
Alfredo Simon got a single swing and miss, yet finished his first start with three strikeouts.
Brandon Morrow – How’s this for a guy who hadn’t started a major league game in nearly a year? On 88 pitches, he got 15 swinging strikes!
Bud Norris got hit so hard that the seven swinging strikes he got in his last start hardly seemed to matter, but it’s one positive sign.
Both Chase Anderson and Drew Pomeranz exceeded their expected K% according to their SwStr%.
Jon Niese also got just a single swing and miss in his first start.
Kyle Gibson is the only one of tonight’s starters without a strikeout yet this season.
Lance Lynn had some fantastic stuff against the Cubs, but probably not enough to strike out 40% of the batters he faced.
Mark Buehrle is not defined by such things as measured in this chart.
Nathan Eovaldi – That new strikeout pitch we read about that he was developing? You know, that splitter that everyone thinks is the reason the Yankees traded for him? Yeah, well, not so much yet.
Wily Peralta – His SwStr% was just about on par with his career rate.
ERA Estimators Chart
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 5.06 | 4.83 | -0.23 | 4.47 | -0.59 | 2.98 | -2.08 | 5.06 | 4.83 | -0.23 | 4.47 | -0.59 | 2.98 | -2.08 |
| Brandon Morrow | SDG | 0 | 2.76 | 2.76 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.26 | 2.26 | 0 | 2.76 | 2.76 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.26 | 2.26 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 3.69 | -0.81 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 3.69 | -0.81 | 4.31 | -0.19 |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 24 | 5.08 | -18.92 | 5.64 | -18.36 | 4.31 | -19.69 | 24 | 5.08 | -18.92 | 5.64 | -18.36 | 4.31 | -19.69 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 5.4 | 3.72 | -1.68 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 4.98 | -0.42 | 5.4 | 3.72 | -1.68 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 4.98 | -0.42 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 1.5 | 2.79 | 1.29 | 3.09 | 1.59 | 2.64 | 1.14 | 1.5 | 2.79 | 1.29 | 3.09 | 1.59 | 2.64 | 1.14 |
| Drew Pomeranz | OAK | 0 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.78 | 2.78 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.78 | 2.78 | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 1.13 | 3.81 | 2.68 | 4.13 | 3 | 2.48 | 1.35 | 1.13 | 3.81 | 2.68 | 4.13 | 3 | 2.48 | 1.35 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 31.5 | 5.09 | -26.41 | 6.98 | -24.52 | 6.98 | -24.52 | 31.5 | 5.09 | -26.41 | 6.98 | -24.52 | 6.98 | -24.52 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 2.57 | 3.44 | 0.87 | 3.21 | 0.64 | 4.12 | 1.55 | 2.57 | 3.44 | 0.87 | 3.21 | 0.64 | 4.12 | 1.55 |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 4.5 | 2.64 | -1.86 | 2.75 | -1.75 | 3.81 | -0.69 | 4.5 | 2.64 | -1.86 | 2.75 | -1.75 | 3.81 | -0.69 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 1.5 | 2.65 | 1.15 | 2.58 | 1.08 | 3.64 | 2.14 | 1.5 | 2.65 | 1.15 | 2.58 | 1.08 | 3.64 | 2.14 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 1.8 | 3.45 | 1.65 | 3.91 | 2.11 | 5.98 | 4.18 | 1.8 | 3.45 | 1.65 | 3.91 | 2.11 | 5.98 | 4.18 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.73 | 9.03 | -5.7 | 9.96 | -4.77 | 10.61 | -4.12 | 14.73 | 9.03 | -5.7 | 9.96 | -4.77 | 10.61 | -4.12 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 1.5 | 1.51 | 0.01 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.98 | -0.52 | 1.5 | 1.51 | 0.01 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.98 | -0.52 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 3 | 5.95 | 2.95 | 5.19 | 2.19 | 5.81 | 2.81 | 3 | 5.95 | 2.95 | 5.19 | 2.19 | 5.81 | 2.81 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 5.06 | 5 | -0.06 | 4.97 | -0.09 | 3.73 | -1.33 | 5.06 | 5 | -0.06 | 4.97 | -0.09 | 3.73 | -1.33 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 24.3 | 4.7 | -19.6 | 4.96 | -19.34 | 6.88 | -17.42 | 24.3 | 4.7 | -19.6 | 4.96 | -19.34 | 6.88 | -17.42 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0 | 3.47 | 3.47 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 0 | 3.47 | 3.47 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.84 | 2.84 |
| Travis Wood | CHC | 5.79 | 4.22 | -1.57 | 4.39 | -1.4 | 2.12 | -3.67 | 5.79 | 4.22 | -1.57 | 4.39 | -1.4 | 2.12 | -3.67 |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 2.25 | 4.86 | 2.61 | 6.38 | 4.13 | 4.73 | 2.48 | 2.25 | 4.86 | 2.61 | 6.38 | 4.13 | 4.73 | 2.48 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 2.57 | 4.58 | 2.01 | 4.11 | 1.54 | 4.26 | 1.69 | 2.57 | 4.58 | 2.01 | 4.11 | 1.54 | 4.26 | 1.69 |
Most pitchers are going to have discrepancies between their ERA and Estimators in a single game. We’ll discuss just the largest ones among the night starters.
Bud Norris – Nine baserunners in three innings is a lot. It’s a WHIP of 3.00, but Norris stranded only one of those nine, which is even odder, considering that he didn’t allow the ball to leave the park.
Edinson Volquez is probably going to like the park and defense in Kansas City. All 10 fly balls allowed in his first start stayed in the park.
Mark Buehrle had double digit runners reach base, allowing only two to score, despite only striking out one.
Taijuan Walker was hit hard and almost all of those runners scored.
Tim Lincecum was able to strand all three of his walks plus his four hits.
Tyler Matzek – I’m curious, because you rarely see that big a difference between SIERA and xFIP. They’re generally the same thing, except SIERA goes into a little more batted ball detail. The obvious thing is that he walked three of 21 Cubs and got away with just a single run and kept all five of his fly balls in the park, which isn’t all that easy to do in Colorado.
BABIP Chart
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.245 | 0.389 | 0.144 | 0.0% | 95.0% |
| Brandon Morrow | SDG | 0.267 | 0.286 | 0.019 | 0.0% | 88.0% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.328 | 0.222 | -0.106 | 0.0% | 96.0% |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 0.259 | 0.467 | 0.208 | 0.0% | 84.2% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.317 | 0.333 | 0.016 | 20.0% | 81.3% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.254 | 0.278 | 0.024 | 0.0% | 92.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | OAK | 0.209 | 0.125 | -0.084 | 37.5% | 84.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.229 | 0.182 | -0.047 | 0.0% | 91.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.231 | 0.667 | 0.436 | 0.0% | 84.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.278 | 0.067 | -0.211 | 0.0% | 81.0% |
| Jason Marquis | CIN | 0.263 | 0.267 | 0.004 | 0.0% | 76.7% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 0.262 | 0.267 | 0.005 | 20.0% | 81.8% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.247 | 0.286 | 0.039 | 0.0% | 96.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.332 | 0.412 | 0.08 | 12.5% | 85.2% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.226 | 0.182 | -0.044 | 16.7% | 72.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.249 | 0.318 | 0.069 | 42.9% | 96.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.292 | 0.364 | 0.072 | 0.0% | 89.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.323 | 0.533 | 0.21 | 0.0% | 88.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0.321 | 0.235 | -0.086 | 0.0% | 88.0% |
| Travis Wood | CHC | 0.347 | 0.467 | 0.12 | 0.0% | 91.7% |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 0.260 | 0.333 | 0.073 | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.325 | 0.261 | -0.064 | 11.1% | 92.1% |
Bud Norris – Six LDs (40% of batted balls) is the culprit here.
Francisco Liriano had a good batted ball mix and was as difficult to square up as ever. It’s never about the quality of his stuff.
Mark Buehrle – Eight of his 23 batted balls were line drives, but three of his seven fly balls were of the infield variety. I only remark on this because you think guys are squaring him up, but then they’re also not.
Taijuan Walker kept falling behind and consequently ended up with an equal mix of grounders, flies, and liners, without mixing in a pop up. That’s really not the combination you’re looking for.
Travis Wood induced just two ground balls, but 33% of his batted balls were line drives.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Brandon Morrow – You can’t put a ton of stock on a single start, but the stuff is still there. It might even be different good stuff with the new knuckle curve, which he threw only a few times last year. Velocity was up to peak as well. He has a good matchup tonight (as most in Petco are) against the D’backs, and is fairly cheap in most places.
Brett Anderson is similarly cheap across the board. There’s not as much upside here and Nelson Cruz has been crushing the ball, but he’ll face at least a couple of LHBs in the middle of that order. He has a 65.2 GB% against lefties in his career.
Chase Anderson fits nicely into that mostly cheap range as well. He’s somewhere in the middle, riskier than the Dodger pitcher, but with more upside, though probably not as much as the guy he’s going against. If he can keep the ball in the park, he could end up with a quality start and a few Ks.
Collin McHugh may be slightly expensive for my tastes against a hot Oakland offense.
Drew Pomeranz is in that cheap range as well and in a great spot for strikeouts.
Francisco Liriano – I’m not sure that I want to pay top price for him in such a tough spot when there are pitchers in much better spots, who are much cheaper. And it’s not like you’re paying for a guy who can’t blow up, either.
Jerome Williams is another bottom of the board pitcher, who could be useful tonight against a weakened lineup. Beware of Duda, maybe Murphy, and that’s about it.
Jon Niese – The Phillies haven’t been terrible offensively, but you’re still targeting pitchers against them. Niese has a fairly low ceiling here, but should have a high floor as well. Unlike some other riskier pitchers today, you probably have a decent idea what you’re getting. Hence, he’s more your #2 for double ups instead of GPPs.
Lance Lynn – I may be putting too much on early season stats (both his and Milwaukee’s), but considering your other options at the top today, he’s probably the one I’d opt for. There’s really no such thing as safe today, but he might be as close as you get.
Mark Buehrle is like Niese, except with maybe less upside and a tougher matchup.
Nathan Eovaldi isn’t expensive, but let’s see that new strikeout pitch actually strike some people out first.
Taijuan Walker has the talent to pitch well here, but if the command matches his first start, it could be a slaughter.
Tyler Matzek fits into the same cheap price range that most of today’s pitchers are sitting in. In fact, he might even be a tad cheaper. Talent wise, he may be their best pitcher. Put him in San Francisco and you might see the results too (results meaning league average performance at a well below league average price tag).
Wily Peralta – I like him to keep the ball on the ground, but I don’t know if I want to pay a mid-range price for it today. Other options may risky, but with more upside and it’s not like he’s a lock for a quality start either.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.