Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, April 8th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-04-10 17:52:05

Today is the last article without opposing team offensive stats for this season, and by next week all of the blank spaces in the charts should be gone with almost all pitchers having had a start already. Wednesday is the first full day of games that I don’t have six months to prepare for, so the write-ups may be a little smaller and not going into great detail on every single starter. I may glimpse over the very obvious or where there’s nothing to see. After today, we’re off Thursday and will be back on Friday.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp. team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

NOTE – I’ve decided to leave in the stats for last season’s team defense and opposing team’s wRC+ just as a reference point, although we obviously expect things to change and in some places somewhat drastically due to off-season transactions. I’ll switch over to this season’s stats at the end of the week.

Aaron Harang looked like toast a couple of years ago and then had a nice little resurgence and pitched 200 innings for the first time since 2007. His peripherals say that without a 6.4 HR/FB (second best of his career by 0.1 point), he should have matched his career numbers. Say goodbye to Atlanta and hello to Philadelphia. Remember when the Phillies had pitching?

Andrew Cashner has gone from a flame-throwing strikeout machine to a still hard-throwing sinker baller, pitching to more contact, whose fantasy upside may be limited in a tough spot today.

Brandon McCarthy had great peripherals, but terrible results in Arizona. He turned it around after a trade to the Yankees. His underlying performance continued to excel, but now the results matched and he turned it into a nice contract from the Dodgers. It wasn’t all luck, as he did make some changes to his pitch mix after the trade and has even seen his velocity rise significantly over the last year, which, like, never happens to someone at his age. He’ll definitely be someone to watch and see if he can sustain gains made last year.

Carlos Carrasco finally had the breakout a lot of people were waiting on for a long time in the second half of the season last year. It did not look to be a trick, though he did do some magic with his BABIP (.274) with the Cleveland defense behind him. You can usually count on the Astros for some Ks for your pitcher.

Chris Heston is the second fill in starter for the Giants in just three games with Cain going down. Seems like only a couple of weeks ago the Giants had too many starters. There’s really nothing exciting about Heston. The best thing you could say about him is that the other team hasn’t seen him yet.

Danny Duffy has ERA estimators nearly two runs above his actual ERA. Beware the unsustainable BABIP. We’ll talk more about him later, but he’s likely to be over-valued to start the season.

Eddie Butler is the #2 prospect in the organization according to Fangraphs and throws gas, but lost the ability to make hitters miss last season. He walked twice as many as he struck out in a very short major league stint last year. He keeps the ball on the ground though, so there may be little value on either side of him for daily fantasy purposes.

Gerrit Cole was let loose by the Pirates last year and spiked his strikeout rate all the way to 24.2%. Previously, they’d brought him up pitching to contact and staying away from his curveball. Cole was allowed to use it again last year and it changed his arsenal. This should be the year a healthy Cole takes that next step forward and becomes an Ace.

Hisashi Iwakuma almost became the only starting pitcher in major league history with more than 500 career innings to have a strand rate greater than 80%. And then he couldn’t stop anyone from scoring for about a month, so that didn’t happen. The issue with him is and always has been HRs. They usually don’t hurt him so bad because he doesn’t walk anyone, but he’s facing a tough lineup tonight. You’d think Safeco would help him keep the ball in the park, but he had a 15.9 HR/FB at home last season to go with his 2.1 BB%. He has a 14.2 HR/FB in 290 career innings at Safeco, higher than his 12.4% road rate. If his HR rate ever normalizes, it could knock about a quarter of a run off his ERA. If not, a guy that sits around 3.25 is not so bad either.

Jacob deGrom came out of nowhere to capture the NL Rookie of the Year in 2014. He wasn’t a big prospect because he just came into pitching from shortstop a couple of years ago, but looks to have picked it up pretty quickly. He threw five different pitches at least 9.5% of the time last year, including a changeup that Johan Santana helped him mold in the minors. The HR/FB should normalize to something above the 6% it was last year, but he otherwise seems like the real deal.

Jake Odorizzi is another piece to an article I linked to opening day concerning a couple of potentially underrated pitchers according to contact authority. The article suggests that Odorizzi was the victim of poor sequencing and a ridiculous .344 AVG/.359 SLG against on grounders. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who follows the team philosophy of pitching up, mostly because their home park lets them get away with such things. Another upside is an increased strikeout rate (24.2%) which he experienced last year.

Jeremy Hellickson blasted by his mediocre peripherals early in his career by stranding over 80% of his base runners until he stopped doing that and the bottom fell out. He may miss the park and defense in Tampa Bay that allowed him to do that. Let’s see if he changes his philosophy and goes back to being the high strikeout pitcher that made him such a big prospect in the minors.

Jordan Zimmermann had the highest K% of his career (22.8%) and lowest BB% (3.6%) of his career. That’s a combination that leads to good things. With a career 8.7 HR/FB, he’s been able to keep his ERA and FIP slightly below his other estimators. He’s an opening day starter on a lot of other teams. The Nationals have several of those guys.

Jose Quintana was never a big prospect, but has turned himself into a very solid pitcher, turning in the best of his three seasons last year. I’d expect the 5.1 HR/FB to return to the league average rate it was in his first two seasons, but that could be cancelled out by a reduction in his .318 BABIP.

Matt Shoemaker is yet another non-prospect made good last year. I’m sensing a theme today. Some wonder if he can sustain this performance, not because of anything in the underlying metrics, but because he’s not over-powering and never showed any signs of this in the majors. If he keeps throwing strikes and making hitters miss, I see no reason why not. The Mariners have some potent lefty bats, but it’s a great park to start his second major league campaign in.

Michael Pineda returned to action in 2014 after missing two years with a shoulder injury. His impeccable control (2.4 BB%) helped him to a 1.89 ERA, but I’d expect the 5.1 HR/FB to regress. The Blue Jays may represent an immediate challenge regarding that last number.

Miguel Gonzalez is just over 64 innings away from becoming the first starting pitcher with over 500 career innings and a LOB greater than 80%. There are all sorts of anomalies going on here, including allowing only 57 ERs last year on 25 HRs. Tampa Bay is a park that could play well for the extreme fly baller. A lot of them leave the yard, but a lot of them find infielders’ gloves.

Mike Leake had a very uncharacteristic 22.2 K% at home last season. It would seem an aberration considering his career marks. His 3.20 ERA at home (and matching xFIP) was a run below his career number. He’s a strong ground ball pitcher, who would only be interesting at a low price if he can’t sustain the increase in strikeouts.

R.A. Dickey hasn’t been what the Blue Jays thought they traded for, but he wasn’t bad last year. Peripherals and especially BABIP rules don’t necessarily apply to knuckleballers. Weather can wreak havoc on a knuckleball and it’s not expected to be very good in this game, if it even gets played at all.

Rick Porcello just signed a new extension to stay in Boston before he even throws a pitch. He should benefit from improved defense behind him, even if his strikeout rate never again reaches even the 19.3% it did in 2013. He’s an option vs Philly depending on weather because I think most pitchers are going to be an option against them.

Ross Detwiler worked exclusively out of the bullpen last year in Washington. Despite throwing hard, he doesn’t miss many bats. His strength is keeping the ball on the ground, though he hasn’t reached a 50% ground ball rate in each of the last two seasons. He has done a good job keeping the ball in the park and Oakland should only help in that regard tonight.

Scott Feldman doesn’t miss bats. In fact, his strikeout rate fell from 17% for each of the previous three seasons to just 14% last year. He’s a guy that offers little upside vs Cleveland.

Scott Kazmir had fine season and threw the most innings (190) since 2007. Maybe there was a tiring effect there because his performance and velocity really fell off towards the end of the year. If you believe all it was is fatigue, then you should probably like him in this spot against the Rangers at home, but keep in mind the risk.

Shelby Miller obviously showed the Braves something they liked last season. I’m not sure exactly what that was as he really outperformed his underlying metrics, but he did that the season before too. Maybe they think he can keep it up. The real problem last year was a big drop in strikeout rate and a rise in walk rate. He went from a 15.5 K-BB% in his rookie year to a sad 7.1% last year. He’s another fly ball pitcher, who might have really benefited from having the guy he was traded for out there. If he’s going to be good, he’s going to have to hope the strong pop up rate and a good defense carries him to an elite BABIP again, though expecting a repeat of last year’s .256 may be foolish.

Tom Koehler wasn’t great, but was probably better than he was supposed to be or than many people thought he was last year in that he was even useful at all. He’ll miss some bats, but walks can be an issue for him, though he was league average in both metrics at home last year. Keeping the ball in the park, especially at home, was a strength for him last year. The most favorable thing about him tonight is the matchup (and the non-threat of weather in a dome). You might be scared off by Atlanta’s offensive barrage last night, but that had more to do with Mat Latos throwing batting practice.

Wily Peralta throws gas, but like most Milwaukee pitchers, looks for groundballs rather than strikeouts. He uses Lucroy’s abilities to his benefit and pounds the bottom of the zone as per the team pitching philosophy. That’s something that should help him at home (though he still managed to allow 23 HRs) where he actually did strike out a league average rate of hitters (20.8%). Lefties managed a .361 wOBA and 14 HRs against him last year, but he essentially had identical strikeout rates vs both sides.

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

No outliers today. Well, at least no outliers who threw more than 16 innings. Still, just three strikeouts and a 4.3 SwStr% in even that few innings is concerning for Eddie Butler

ERA Estimators Chart

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Andrew Cashner – I might be able to buy into a good pitcher limiting his HR/FB (6.0% last year) in San Diego, the metrics buy neither that, nor the low BABIP. While regression is king, he may be able to hold onto some of that magic.

Brandon McCarthy – The damage was so severe in Arizona that he still couldn’t catch up to his peripherals for the season in New York.

Danny Duffy – The defense is elite. The infield fly rate is elite (14.1%). They still do not justify a .239 BABIP, which would have been right up there for the league lead with Cueto and Chris Young if he had the innings to qualify. The low HR/FB (6.1) may be somewhat manageable in a good park, but nobody beats their estimators to the extent he did over the long run.

Hisashi Iwakuma – This is mostly about the HR rate we discussed earlier.

Michael Pineda – I wouldn’t expect anything he did in his 76 innings to be sustainable. Not the .233 BABIP. Not the 80.4 LOB%. Not the 5.4 HR/FB.

Miguel Gonzalez – He somehow only allowed scoring on HRs last year. The low BABIP might be sustainable due to great defense and an elite pop up rate. We talked about the strand rate previously, but last year’s 85.5% is even more of an extreme outlier that I’m fairly confident won’t be repeated.

Shelby Miller – Let’s see what happens to the .256 BABIP, although he could make other underlying improvements to get back to being the pitcher he previously was (or was thought to be). That could help him sustain a decent ERA, while not beating his peripherals.

BABIP Chart

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Brandon McCarthy should benefit from improved defense. Neither of his two stops last year helped him much in that aspect last year. If he can get to even his career baseline of .297 (that includes terrible marks the last 2 years), it could be a boon to his ERA.

Carlos Carrasco might give some of that BABIP back, though the Cleveland defense can’t be worse. Batters did have trouble with pitches in the zone though.

Danny Duffy – The BABIP was just covered above.

Jordan Zimmerman might be a candidate for a low BABIP if he maintain that IFFB rate, but it’s not something he’s previously done, at least not to that extreme. His 23.9 LD% is more descriptive than predictive, though it’s been something he’s struggled with throughout his career.

Michael Pineda – The small sample size (76 IP) and unsustainable, although he did indicate some positive indicators as shown in the chart.

R.A. Dickey – BABIP laws don’t normally apply to knuckleballers and the green indicators in the chart definitely back this up.

Shelby Miller had an above average pop up rate, but not to the point where we’d expect him to keep his BABIP that low.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Brandon McCarthy may still be under-valued due to his overall numbers last year and if all remains the same, I can see him having a nice season in Los Angeles. He’s quite affordable on most sites and even cheap on some.

Carlos Carrasco – I like him against a Houston team that strikes out, but he’s not coming cheaply.

Danny Duffy is fairly cheap on some sites despite the ERA. Even so, proceed with caution.

Eddie Butler has some pedigree and a dirt cheap price tag, but beware the low ceiling without the ability to miss bats.

Gerrit Cole – if you haven’t noticed, I’m fan. The sites seem to be fans too considering his price tag. A strong ground ball rate should help him keep the ball in the park in Cincinnati and there should be some strikeouts in that lineup. He should be worth the cost.

Hisashi Iwakuma – I’m not sure I like the excessive price tag against a team with power, even early in the season in Safeco.

Jacob deGrom is among the guys at the top of the board concerning cost. He proved he belongs there last year. The Washington offense is lacking the top of their batting order, so there may be some value here, even at this price.

Jake Odorizzi is a middle of the board pitcher today and if you believe what I wrote up top about an adjustment coming, he might be a bargain tonight.

Jordan Zimmermann is the top priced option on all but one site tonight with good reason. He’s probably the safest option on the board tonight.

Matt Shoemaker is a risk mostly due to previous track record before last season. He’s on the upper half of the board, but not among the most expensive pitchers and the park should be a benefit.

Miguel Gonzalez – Although it’s going to be very difficult to sustain what he’s done, he does come fairly cheap tonight in a good park.

Rick Porcello is an option tonight most immediately because he’s facing the Phillies and sits in the middle of the board. He’s not going to need many strikeouts to justify his price tag.

Scott Kazmir – There is some discrepancy to his cost across different sites. Whether he’s worth in excess of that likely depends what you think about how he ended last season. If you believe in the fatigue theory, he’s worth a play, especially where he’s cheaper.

Tom Koehler – The price tag and opposition may make him worth a flyer.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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