Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, June 3rd
I try to be very thorough in this article and think I accomplish that, sometimes even to a fault, but there are some things that just can’t account for yet by the time of day it’s published. Those include weather, lineup, and umpiring. Thankfully, RotoGrinders has made great strides in several of those areas. Kevin Roth is the best meteorologist in DFS and the RG e-mail alert service for lineups and late news has you covered there, but there was never much information on umpiring, a very important piece of the puzzle, until recently. RG member ataggart has recently begun posting a daily umpiring report in the forum. It’s a tremendous tool I would implore all readers to use as a companion to this article because what good is it to know a guy has the skills to hit the corners consistently if they’re not going to be called. There are just so many great tools at our disposal now to help us pick the best options every night, beyond just player stats now.
All pitcher stats are represented below except the first game of the doubleheader in Boston, but we’ll only be covering the night games in the notes.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 12.2 | 3.51 | 6.06 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 3.7 | 3.03 | OAK | 95 | 109 | 101 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 20.4% | 12.8% | 7.4% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -2.8 | 4.38 | 5.42 | 1.51 | 1.4 | 4.24 | 3.02 | LOS | 108 | 128 | 114 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 20.1% | 12.1% | 5.2% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -3.9 | 2.73 | 6.84 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 3.18 | 1.59 | TEX | 103 | 112 | 129 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.5% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | -0.9 | 3.27 | 6.85 | 1.33 | 1.01 | 3.12 | 3.12 | CIN | 88 | 106 | 127 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 19.9% | 12.0% | 10.1% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -8.4 | 2.76 | 6.71 | 1.62 | 1.04 | 2.52 | 1.87 | KAN | 105 | 103 | 61 | 24.6% | 5.3% | 23.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 7.3 | 3.69 | 5.79 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 3.87 | 4.12 | CHC | 97 | 88 | 75 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 21.1% | 11.6% | 13.0% |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 1.3 | 4.21 | 6.44 | 1.18 | 0.84 | 3.63 | SDG | 92 | 88 | 78 | ||||||
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -4.4 | 3.47 | 5.9 | 1.97 | 0.87 | 3.08 | 1.86 | SFO | 104 | 114 | 104 | 25.1% | 9.0% | 18.7% | 12.0% | 5.4% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.6 | 4.4 | 5.44 | 0.68 | 0.91 | 4.61 | 4.25 | TAM | 94 | 118 | 100 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 20.7% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
| James Shields | SDG | -15.6 | 3.58 | 6.54 | 1.23 | 0.84 | 3.38 | 2.63 | NYM | 71 | 84 | 113 | 23.2% | 5.7% | 23.8% | 11.6% | 9.1% |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 16.1 | 4.15 | 6. | 1.01 | 1.04 | 3.87 | 2.33 | CLE | 96 | 111 | 117 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 21.1% | 12.1% | 11.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -1.4 | 3.82 | 5.87 | 1.55 | 0.98 | 4.46 | 4.16 | STL | 110 | 102 | 89 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 22.7% | 9.2% | 11.8% |
| John Lackey | STL | 6.3 | 3.68 | 6.53 | 1.28 | 0.98 | 3.16 | 3.54 | MIL | 67 | 80 | 60 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 20.0% | 7.9% | 10.7% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 5.4 | 3.44 | 6.61 | 1.18 | 1.01 | 3.31 | 3.11 | FLA | 77 | 107 | 85 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 18.7% | 13.1% | 9.9% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -5.5 | 3.3 | 5. | 1.58 | 1.01 | 4.01 | 2.97 | BAL | 90 | 98 | 85 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 22.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 7.2 | 4.3 | 6.28 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 4.25 | 5.33 | WAS | 99 | 96 | 75 | 18.0% | 6.9% | 19.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -9.5 | 2.78 | 6.59 | 1.47 | 0.85 | 2.61 | SEA | 103 | 91 | 78 | ||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 4.9 | 4.33 | 6.09 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 4.42 | 3.8 | HOU | 99 | 102 | 121 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 23.5% | 15.8% | 9.6% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 8.3 | 3.52 | 5.73 | 2 | 1.4 | 3.78 | 3.35 | COL | 91 | 96 | 110 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 21.9% | 11.7% | 6.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -1 | 3.93 | 6.02 | 0.65 | 1.09 | 3.89 | 2.81 | ARI | 94 | 96 | 114 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 2 | 3.9 | 6.36 | 1.84 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 6.15 | PHI | 74 | 67 | 41 | 15.9% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 11.1 | 3.9 | 5.44 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 3.29 | 3.88 | ANA | 107 | 90 | 149 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | -0.9 | 5.05 | 5.59 | 0.84 | 1.08 | 5.32 | 4.13 | CHW | 83 | 87 | 69 | 16.2% | 6.7% | 21.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -6.7 | 3.76 | 6.36 | 1.73 | 1.07 | 3.75 | 5.35 | MIN | 69 | 84 | 77 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 18.2% | 11.0% | 9.7% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 1.5 | 3.92 | 5.86 | 1.41 | 1.09 | 3.68 | 3.19 | ATL | 84 | 94 | 88 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 21.0% | 13.5% | 11.8% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -11.5 | 3.44 | 6.54 | 1.98 | 1.05 | 3.51 | 3.65 | DET | 109 | 105 | 73 | 20.0% | 8.4% | 18.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -9.6 | 4.13 | 5.23 | 1.19 | 0.85 | 3.78 | 4.57 | NYY | 95 | 102 | 88 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% |
| Taylor Jordan | WAS | -2.4 | 4.08 | 5.51 | 2.11 | 1.03 | 4.27 | 6.04 | TOR | 99 | 103 | 113 | 15.1% | 7.4% | 20.5% | 8.7% | 12.2% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | -3.5 | 3.73 | 6.29 | 2.2 | 0.87 | 3.4 | 4.28 | PIT | 85 | 95 | 108 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 20.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% |
| Trevor May | MIN | 1.2 | 3.96 | 5.17 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 3.78 | 2.33 | BOS | 101 | 93 | 85 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 18.6% | 10.2% | 12.1% |
Anibal Sanchez rewarded those who believed in his ERA estimators last time out and has now struck out at least nine in three of his last four starts. That might be a little bit tougher of a feat to continue against an Oakland lineup with just a 17.5 K% vs RHP, but his ERA is still well above his estimators, so we may still be able to take advantage of that. Oakland is also the 2nd best offense vs RHP and represents a below average matchup for him with the park adjustment.
Chris Sale has pitched into the 8th inning and struck out at least 10 in three of his last four starts. His dominant estimators in the main chart above, compare only to Kluber’s today. He compliments that with an excellent 3.8 Hard-Soft% this year and has an amazing 23.0 K-BB% over the last two calendar years. Texas has been hitting the ball hard (23.3 Hard-Soft%, 129 wRC+ over the last week) and blistered Samardzija last night, scoring 15 runs. They hit LHP well (15.8 H-S% leads the majors) and the park adjustment makes them one of the tougher matchups of the evening and possibly the worst outside of Colorado, though he has one of the top two K projections.
Cole Hamels has pitched at least seven innings, allowing two or fewer runs in five straight starts. He allowed two HRs in his last start, his first two in five starts, and is facing a team with some RH power today. His 26.4 Soft% this season is 3rd in the majors, so aside from the early HR issues, there has been a lot of strikeouts and weak contact. He does now have a 16.8 HR/FB at home since the start of last season though. Cincinnati has a 13.6 HR/FB vs LHP and is hitting the ball well lately with just a 2.1 K-BB% over the last week.
Corey Kluber has struck out at least 12 in three of his last four. Are you sensing a theme here as the parade of Aces continues? He has a 29.6 K% and 6.6 HR/FB on the road since last season and a 16.9 SwStr% over the last month. Some pitchers will take that as their K%. He gets a cold Kansas City offense that usually doesn’t strike out often, but has a 27.5 K% over the last week, but also a 14.3 HR/FB and 23.5 LD% despite just a 4.0 Hard-Soft% over that span.
Dan Haren has allowed more than two ERs only twice this season. He’s still in line for some major adjustments, which we’ll talk about below, but has a solid park adjusted matchup against the highest strikeout team (25.5 K% on the road, 26.1% vs RHP, 28.0% over the last week) that may leave him still worthy of consideration.
Dillon Gee was pitching well when he got hurt and because the Mets don’t know what to do with all their young pitching, he had three minor league rehab starts in which he’s also pitched well. The Padres hit the ball well last night and have an 18.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week, but still profile as a great park adjusted matchup (Petco is still a pitcher’s park, right?) against a team that does strike out more than average.
James Shields is all strikeouts and HRs this year because that’s how San Diego has built this staff due to their horrid defensive range. Challenge everybody and hope Petco holds it? As a result, Shields has missed more bats than he ever has before, but also has a 19.4 Hard-Soft%, meaning when contact is made, he’s being hit hard. I don’t know if his team likes that, but as DFS players, we like the strikeouts more than we hate the HRs, as long as there’s a 5 to 1 ratio (I just did some math: 5.9 Ks for every HR he’s allowed). He didn’t allow a HR in his last start for only the 2nd time this season. The Mets are the 3rd worst offense on the road and vs RHP, making them an excellent park adjusted matchup, although their 33.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week is the best in baseball. They have hit 44.6% of their batted balls hard, resulting in a 16.0 HR/FB in the last seven days, but have struck out 24.5% of the time on the road this year.
Jason Vargas doesn’t have a lot of upside and has a 37% hard hit rate against him this year, but has allowed exactly two ERs in four of his six starts this year and with a great defense behind him, the fly ball pitcher is occasionally useful at home. Cleveland has just a 4.2 K-BB% against LHP.
Jon Lester has gone seven innings in five of his last six starts and tied a season high with 10 Ks in his last outing. He finally seems to be on a roll, allowing a total of eight ERs over that span, but also six HRs. That’s a 91.8% strand rate in May, to make up for 58.3 LOB% in April. That’s not usually the way these things work, but whatever works for him and now his ERA estimators match his ERA for the season, meaning we don’t have to write additionally about him below. The Marlins have been above average vs LHP with a 16.1 HR/FB, but just a 7.2 HR/FB at home, keeping this as a basically neutral overall spot for Lester.
Lance McCullers has allowed a total of four ERs over his three starts, but has only lasted 15 innings. His walk rate is a little high, but not out of control, but combined with a 26.9 K%, it gets him close to 100 pitches by the 5th inning. Baltimore has the 3rd highest SwStr (11.5%) and 5th highest chase rate (32.5%) in the majors, making them a solid matchup for him despite a 13.6 HR/FB vs RHP.
Nate Karns has allowed two ERs or less in six straight starts, but has had an issue consistently pitching deep into games. As we’ve seen last night, despite being the hottest offense in the majors, the Angels are still a below average offense against RHP. Overall, they grade out as neutral with a park adjustment, due to the offense being much better recently. Karns has done well on the road (27.1 K%) in his short major league career and the Angels strike out about average in all categories tonight (home, vs RHP, over the last week), but have a league-high 21.7 HR/FB over the last seven days.
Sonny Gray had a run where he was striking out a lot of batters in the early part of May and while it shows up well in his overall rates, he’s struck out just 13 over his last three starts. He’s been exceptional in contact management with a 1.5 Hard-Soft% with a low line drive rate and HR/FB that holds up even on the road since last year, but the Tigers are a tough home offense and strike out less than the average team. Gray should be fine, but the upside may be limited.
Trevor May has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last four starts, but has struck out 14 of his last 52 batters and has an above average SwStr% on the year. The Red Sox don’t strike out a lot (16.1% vs RHP), but haven’t been particularly good either with just a 7.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. May has shown exceptional control and has a 14.9 K-BB% that profiles much better than his ERA.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Chade Bettis (.280 BABIP – 69.0 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB)
Hector Santiago (.249 BABIP – 87.1 LOB% – 7.1 HR/FB)
Miguel Gonzalez (.244 BABIP – 78.7 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Mike Bolsinger (.244 BABIP – 91.2 LOB% – 4.5 HR/FB) – He’s still been very good, but Colorado.
Nick Martinez (.279 BABIP – 83.1 LOB% – 6.0 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU
Mark Buerhle
Mike Leake – Despite the best matchup of the day. He’s been just bad enough to not deserve a write-up.
Rick Porcello
Taylor Jordan
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 22.5% | 6.8% | Home | 21.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 8.1% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 14.6% | 8.1% | Home | 13.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 2.4% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 28.5% | 5.5% | Road | 27.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 1.7% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 23.9% | 6.4% | Home | 24.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 3.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 26.9% | 5.3% | Road | 29.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 32.8% | 1.6% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 19.7% | 4.8% | Home | 17.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Dillon Gee | Mets | 16.2% | 6.3% | Road | 17.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.7% | 10.7% | Road | 29.6% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 40.3% | 8.1% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.3% | 10.4% | Home | 21.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 8.5% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.0% | 6.0% | Home | 21.3% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 5.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | 16.7% | 5.7% | Home | 15.9% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 5.6% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.9% | 7.8% | Road | 17.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.2% | 10.7% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 19.4% | 5.4% | Home | 22.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 6.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 22.7% | 6.3% | Road | 23.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 6.9% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 26.9% | 9.0% | Home | 27.9% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 6.4% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 14.1% | 5.3% | Road | 13.0% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 4.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 26.1% | 4.4% | Road | 24.8% | 3.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 17.1% | 7.5% | Road | 16.6% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 19.8% | 6.2% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 20.5% | 7.3% | Road | 20.2% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 21.6% | 8.3% | Road | 22.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 3.8% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 16.1% | 6.0% | Road | 13.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 14.6% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 22.8% | 9.9% | Road | 27.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 12.8% | 8.5% | Home | 12.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 17.2% | 5.6% | Home | 16.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.4% | 7.0% | Home | 19.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.8% | 7.9% | Road | 21.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 7.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 20.6% | 10.0% | Home | 26.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 11.0% |
| Taylor Jordan | Nationals | 12.8% | 5.7% | Home | 12.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 15.2% | 5.2% | Home | 16.2% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 5.6% |
| Trevor May | Twins | 19.9% | 7.3% | Road | 26.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 1.9% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Road | 19.4% | 8.1% | RH | 17.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.0% | 10.5% | RH | 19.7% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 8.3% | LH | 20.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.3% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Road | 19.2% | 7.6% | LH | 20.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| Royals | Home | 14.3% | 6.0% | RH | 16.7% | 5.5% | L7Days | 27.5% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 25.5% | 8.2% | RH | 26.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 28.0% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Home | 22.9% | 6.2% | RH | 22.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.3% |
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 7.9% | LH | 20.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 7.8% | LH | 23.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.5% |
| Mets | Road | 24.5% | 5.9% | RH | 20.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 5.9% |
| Indians | Road | 16.8% | 9.0% | LH | 15.8% | 11.6% | L7Days | 14.7% | 8.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.2% | 9.1% | RH | 18.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.7% | 5.5% | RH | 21.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 4.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.8% | 6.3% | LH | 21.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.5% | 2.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.3% | 7.5% | RH | 22.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.4% | 5.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.2% | 8.6% | LH | 23.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.8% | 7.7% | RH | 23.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 31.7% | 8.5% |
| Astros | Home | 25.5% | 9.2% | RH | 25.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 16.3% | 6.5% | RH | 19.4% | 5.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 4.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 19.1% | 8.5% | RH | 19.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 10.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.1% | 6.4% | RH | 19.9% | 5.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 1.7% |
| Angels | Home | 20.1% | 7.4% | RH | 20.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 18.5% | 5.4% | RH | 19.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 4.1% |
| Twins | Road | 23.0% | 7.2% | RH | 22.3% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.0% | 5.6% |
| Braves | Road | 17.9% | 7.3% | RH | 16.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.4% | 8.5% | RH | 18.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.4% | 8.3% | RH | 19.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.4% | 7.8% | RH | 20.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.8% | 6.5% | RH | 19.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 8.7% | RH | 16.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 13.2% | 8.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 20.5% | 7.1% | 10.0% | Home | 21.6% | 7.6% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 21.1% | 9.6% | 4.8% | Home | 22.8% | 12.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | Road | 16.2% | 7.2% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 21.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | Home | 24.1% | 16.8% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | Road | 22.2% | 6.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 20.1% | 12.2% | 9.9% | Home | 19.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 14.3% | 21.4% |
| Dillon Gee | Mets | 18.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | Road | 20.3% | 12.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.2% | 11.4% | 6.5% | Road | 20.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 19.8% | 8.0% | 14.1% | Home | 17.9% | 6.9% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 6.5% | 12.9% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | Home | 23.1% | 10.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | 22.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | Home | 20.9% | 8.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | Road | 17.9% | 5.9% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.5% | 11.0% | 13.1% | Home | 24.0% | 5.1% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.6% | 8.5% | 12.4% | Road | 19.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | 20.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.8% | 8.1% | 11.2% | Road | 23.2% | 7.7% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 23.7% | 12.9% | 11.4% | Road | 23.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.3% | 11.8% | 12.1% | Road | 23.9% | 13.2% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 23.5% | 0.0% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.0% | Road | 21.8% | 10.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 19.5% | 8.8% | 16.3% | Road | 21.6% | 9.1% | 24.2% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 21.1% | 14.0% | 7.0% | Road | 20.0% | 15.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 19.0% | 15.6% | 9.1% | Road | 15.7% | 0.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 20.7% | 7.6% | 11.0% | Home | 20.7% | 8.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 21.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% | Home | 19.5% | 13.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 21.0% | 13.4% | 8.4% | Home | 19.7% | 11.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | Road | 15.0% | 6.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 7.5% | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 23.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% | Home | 18.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 9.5% | 19.0% |
| Taylor Jordan | Nationals | 19.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | Home | 15.1% | 10.5% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 20.5% | 9.8% | 5.9% | Home | 20.5% | 11.1% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor May | Twins | 21.9% | 9.0% | 15.6% | Road | 21.4% | 13.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Road | 20.8% | 11.7% | 8.6% | RH | 21.3% | 10.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.2% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.7% | 16.5% | 8.3% | RH | 21.3% | 17.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.9% | 17.4% | 4.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.1% | 11.2% | 9.0% | LH | 21.8% | 12.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 19.8% | 13.7% | 3.9% |
| Reds | Road | 21.4% | 9.5% | 9.1% | LH | 24.3% | 13.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 11.7% | 8.3% |
| Royals | Home | 22.3% | 7.0% | 10.5% | RH | 23.2% | 8.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.5% | 13.2% | 9.4% | RH | 20.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.6% | 11.4% |
| Padres | Home | 19.1% | 11.1% | 6.6% | RH | 18.8% | 10.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | LH | 23.2% | 7.7% | 2.2% | L7Days | 15.6% | 10.4% | 7.5% |
| Rays | Road | 21.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | LH | 22.4% | 12.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.7% | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| Mets | Road | 25.3% | 8.9% | 11.4% | RH | 23.5% | 8.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Indians | Road | 19.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% | LH | 22.4% | 8.6% | 5.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | RH | 22.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.5% | 12.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | RH | 20.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 5.5% | 10.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.3% | 7.2% | 10.8% | LH | 21.5% | 16.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 19.8% | 10.9% | 8.0% | RH | 21.6% | 13.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.7% | 13.2% | 2.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.7% | 14.3% | 7.9% | LH | 16.7% | 11.6% | 4.2% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.1% | 12.1% | 7.1% | RH | 19.2% | 11.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| Astros | Home | 18.3% | 18.2% | 11.9% | RH | 22.3% | 14.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 24.8% | 11.7% | 8.7% | RH | 22.2% | 15.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 20.6% | 13.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.7% | 11.6% | 8.8% | RH | 20.9% | 11.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.8% | 15.4% | 4.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | RH | 22.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.9% | 13.2% |
| Angels | Home | 23.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | RH | 20.4% | 11.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.6% | 21.7% | 10.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.1% | 7.4% | 12.0% | RH | 22.6% | 8.9% | 11.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| Twins | Road | 20.1% | 6.8% | 13.5% | RH | 22.0% | 8.6% | 12.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% |
| Braves | Road | 23.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | RH | 23.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | RH | 21.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | RH | 21.4% | 13.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.7% | 10.6% | 12.9% | RH | 18.1% | 12.5% | 13.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.4% | 7.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | RH | 21.9% | 10.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.7% | 1.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | RH | 19.8% | 10.2% | 13.7% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 23.8% | 10.7% | 2.22 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 2.18 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.06 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.06 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 27.7% | 14.0% | 1.98 | 32.2% | 15.5% | 2.08 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 25.3% | 12.7% | 1.99 | 26.6% | 14.5% | 1.83 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 30.9% | 14.9% | 2.07 | 39.0% | 16.9% | 2.31 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 17.5% | 5.7% | 3.07 | 16.7% | 6.4% | 2.61 |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 15.6% | 10.0% | 1.56 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 2.56 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 30.9% | 14.3% | 2.16 | 34.5% | 15.5% | 2.23 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 22.0% | 8.8% | 2.50 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 2.30 |
| James Shields | SDG | 30.7% | 14.6% | 2.10 | 29.8% | 13.4% | 2.22 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 15.3% | 7.3% | 2.10 | 27.5% | 8.2% | 3.35 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 21.7% | 11.8% | 1.84 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 1.78 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.95 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 2.78 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 22.8% | 9.8% | 2.33 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.28 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 26.9% | 7.5% | 3.59 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 3.59 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 11.1% | 4.9% | 2.27 | 13.8% | 5.3% | 2.60 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 26.7% | 10.3% | 2.59 | |||
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 19.5% | 9.4% | 2.07 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 1.88 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 21.2% | 8.6% | 2.47 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 24.2% | 10.5% | 2.30 | 26.9% | 11.7% | 2.30 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 12.7% | 5.3% | 2.40 | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.94 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 22.7% | 8.1% | 2.80 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 2.46 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.4% | 8.4% | 1.60 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 1.89 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 18.7% | 8.5% | 2.20 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 2.10 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.79 | 20.7% | 15.1% | 1.37 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 23.0% | 10.2% | 2.25 | 27.2% | 12.1% | 2.25 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.31 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 2.44 |
| Taylor Jordan | WAS | 4.6% | 5.4% | 0.85 | 4.6% | 5.4% | 0.85 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 11.5% | 8.1% | 1.42 | 11.1% | 6.5% | 1.71 |
| Trevor May | MIN | 19.2% | 9.7% | 1.98 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 2.20 |
General Note – Last year, only Kershaw had a SwStr greater than 14%. This year, there are five, including Kershaw. The other four all pitch today. So, maybe some strikeouts.
Dan Haren has consistently had a SwStr% between 4.6% and 6.6% in five of his last six starts with a high of 8.8% twice this year. The Miami catchers seem to be very below average framers via StatCorner.com, so he’s not getting any help there. His numbers over the last month look a bit more believable than his early season strikeout rates. It’s not a big adjustment, but a slight dip.
Dillon Gee had a 7.4 SwStr% last year. He beat that in all five of his starts before hitting the DL this year and has had better than league average SwStr rates in the past. The difference was an O-Swing that dropped to 30.2% last year, his worst since his rookie season. This year, his 37.4 O-Swing% is the best of his career. That represents some potential upside in his K%.
Jason Vargas – Earlier in the season, I noted some potential upside in just a 9.9 April K% and that was not only realized, but blown past in a 27.5 May K% despite just a modest upgrade in his SwStr%. Altogether, it washes out to put him right on target almost right at his career rate.
Lance McCullers achieved a double-digit SwStr% for the first time in his last start, which was a major improvement over his first two starts, but to be fair, those were tough assignments against the A’s and Tigers. He found 9 swings and misses against the White Sox and could do even better against the Orioles tonight.
Nate Karns has been adjusting his K/SwStr by doing something not many pitchers are able to do, increasing his SwStr% instead of decreasing his K%. This is obviously a positive development as he’s had a double digit SwStr% in four of his last five games, with the one exception being a hard to strike out Oakland offense.
Trevor May has a 14.9 K-BB% that we’ve already mentioned, but a .352 BABIP and 65.2 LOB%. Underneath all that is a league average LD% with a solid IFFB% as he’s pretty neutral between fly balls and ground balls. He also gets a good amount of swings and misses in the strike zone. Overall, he profiles as a pitcher who we might see a better than league average BABIP against, not much worse. This all points to some well-hidden upside.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.75 | 3.53 | -2.22 | 3.64 | -2.11 | 4.29 | -1.46 | 5.97 | 3.6 | -2.37 | 3.62 | -2.35 | 4.5 | -1.47 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 2.96 | 3.56 | 0.6 | 3.48 | 0.52 | 2.15 | -0.81 | 2.96 | 3.57 | 0.61 | 3.48 | 0.52 | 2.15 | -0.81 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.66 | 2.95 | -0.71 | 3.08 | -0.58 | 3 | -0.66 | 2.68 | 2.57 | -0.11 | 2.87 | 0.19 | 2.83 | 0.15 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 2.91 | 3.43 | 0.52 | 3.49 | 0.58 | 3.93 | 1.02 | 1.69 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 1.41 | 2.48 | 0.79 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.52 | 2.33 | -1.19 | 2.33 | -1.19 | 2.31 | -1.21 | 2.39 | 1.53 | -0.86 | 1.6 | -0.79 | 1.66 | -0.73 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 3.03 | 4.17 | 1.14 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 4.43 | 1.4 | 3.34 | 4.05 | 0.71 | 4.12 | 0.78 | 3.81 | 0.47 |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 3.86 | 3.79 | -0.07 | 3.73 | -0.13 | 3.86 | 0 | 1.8 | 5.77 | 3.97 | 5.79 | 3.99 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 3.47 | 2.98 | -0.49 | 2.79 | -0.68 | 3.2 | -0.27 | 5.27 | 2.35 | -2.92 | 2.07 | -3.2 | 3.1 | -2.17 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.18 | 4.21 | 2.03 | 4.47 | 2.29 | 3.82 | 1.64 | 1.35 | 3.87 | 2.52 | 4.09 | 2.74 | 3.01 | 1.66 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.69 | 2.73 | -0.96 | 2.91 | -0.78 | 4.38 | 0.69 | 4.34 | 2.8 | -1.54 | 2.98 | -1.36 | 5.37 | 1.03 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 5.16 | 4.73 | -0.43 | 4.85 | -0.31 | 5.05 | -0.11 | 3.6 | 3.23 | -0.37 | 3.63 | 0.03 | 4.4 | 0.8 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.9 | 3.85 | -0.05 | 3.88 | -0.02 | 4.35 | 0.45 | 3.83 | 3.8 | -0.03 | 3.86 | 0.03 | 4.8 | 0.97 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.83 | 4 | 1.17 | 3.89 | 1.06 | 3.13 | 0.3 | 1.97 | 3.59 | 1.62 | 3.63 | 1.66 | 2.63 | 0.66 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.3 | 3.35 | 0.05 | 3.2 | -0.1 | 3.46 | 0.16 | 2.12 | 3.49 | 1.37 | 3.49 | 1.37 | 4.42 | 2.3 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 3.42 | 1.02 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 3.42 | 1.02 | 2.3 | -0.1 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 4.97 | 4.83 | -0.14 | 4.62 | -0.35 | 4.71 | -0.26 | 3.57 | 4.57 | 1 | 4.57 | 1 | 3.8 | 0.23 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.22 | 3.31 | 0.09 | 3.46 | 0.24 | 3.05 | -0.17 | |||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 3.48 | 4.15 | 0.67 | 4.1 | 0.62 | 4.42 | 0.94 | 4.4 | 4.25 | -0.15 | 4.25 | -0.15 | 4.99 | 0.59 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 1.15 | 3.56 | 2.41 | 3.45 | 2.3 | 2.87 | 1.72 | 1.05 | 3.57 | 2.52 | 3.46 | 2.41 | 2.98 | 1.93 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.96 | 3.72 | -0.24 | 4.1 | 0.14 | 3.68 | -0.28 | 4.02 | 3.29 | -0.73 | 3.7 | -0.32 | 3.61 | -0.41 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 4.66 | 4.52 | -0.14 | 4.28 | -0.38 | 5.42 | 0.76 | 6.75 | 4.8 | -1.95 | 4.73 | -2.02 | 6.78 | 0.03 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.32 | 3.97 | 0.65 | 3.99 | 0.67 | 3.97 | 0.65 | 1.88 | 3.38 | 1.5 | 3.36 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 0.55 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 2.03 | 4.71 | 2.68 | 4.75 | 2.72 | 4.06 | 2.03 | 3.3 | 4.52 | 1.22 | 4.77 | 1.47 | 4.76 | 1.46 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.37 | 4.05 | -1.32 | 4.18 | -1.19 | 4.81 | -0.56 | 5.4 | 4.29 | -1.11 | 4.29 | -1.11 | 4.76 | -0.64 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.5 | 3.44 | -1.06 | 3.35 | -1.15 | 4.08 | -0.42 | 3.71 | 3.43 | -0.28 | 3.24 | -0.47 | 3.77 | 0.06 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 1.82 | 3.43 | 1.61 | 3.5 | 1.68 | 2.73 | 0.91 | 1.67 | 3.17 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 1.53 | 2.81 | 1.14 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 6.18 | 4.29 | -1.89 | 4.44 | -1.74 | 4.76 | -1.42 | 4.13 | 4.03 | -0.1 | 4.12 | -0.01 | 4.26 | 0.13 |
| Taylor Jordan | WAS | 5.79 | 6.04 | 0.25 | 6.07 | 0.28 | 3.95 | -1.84 | 5.79 | 6.04 | 0.25 | 6.07 | 0.28 | 3.95 | -1.84 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 4.62 | 4.17 | -0.45 | 4.07 | -0.55 | 4.72 | 0.1 | 5.59 | 4 | -1.59 | 3.88 | -1.71 | 4.3 | -1.29 |
| Trevor May | MIN | 5.07 | 3.75 | -1.32 | 3.84 | -1.23 | 3.1 | -1.97 | 5.52 | 3.81 | -1.71 | 4 | -1.52 | 3.51 | -2.01 |
Anibal Sanchez has had issues keeping the ball in the park (15.0 HR/FB) and stranding runners (62.3 LOB%) this season. The fact that he does have the highest fly ball rate of his career (41.7%) by a large margin could pose a problem, but a high HR rate is not a problem he’s ever really had before with a career rate of only 8.0. As that regresses, expect his strand rate to follow.
Cole Hamels was in the process of moving his HR rate back towards league average before his last start jumped him back up to a 14.5 HR/FB. The low BABIP is supported by a lot of weak contact, a low LD rate (17.1%) and an elite IFFB%. Looking at the chart now, there seem to be a lot of elite IFFB rates in play today. Through his career, Hamels has always been a guy who gets a lot of pop ups, but allows a few HR’s. His career rate is 11.1% of his fly balls in both categories.
Corey Kluber has a 26.7 K-BB%, but a .351 BABIP because Cleveland. He doesn’t profile as a low BABIP pitcher, but a little help would be nice to get him closer to .300. He does have a .329 career rate so far, so don’t expect too much of an adjustment.
Dan Haren has an 86.5 LOB% to go with his .239 BABIP. He’s a fly ball pitcher that generates a lot of pop ups and is slightly above average with his weak contact and line drive rate. That all profiles well, but he seldom gets batters to miss in the strike zone. His .289 career BABIP is much closer to his team’s allowed rate. Maybe there’s some leeway there, but not over 50 points.
James Shields had an absurd May in which he had a 28.9 HR/FB, but 92.5 LOB%. That’s how you get some lopsided numbers like in the ERA chart above.
Nate Karns is an odd case. He’s seen his BABIP rise to .260 in May, after a .194 April, but his LOB also rose to 83.3% over the last month. The HR rate is where it’s at though. After a 17.9 HR/FB in April, it was just 3.6 in May. Three of his five starts in each month were at home where all of his HRs occurred, so it’s not a matter of park adjustments. Karns doesn’t profile for an overall low BABIP aside from the excellent positioning of his defense.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.286 | 0.306 | 0.02 | 12.5% | 83.1% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.310 | 0.280 | -0.03 | 3.8% | 95.0% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.312 | 0.293 | -0.019 | 5.1% | 80.0% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 0.303 | 0.246 | -0.057 | 15.9% | 85.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.319 | 0.351 | 0.032 | 7.1% | 85.7% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 0.296 | 0.239 | -0.057 | 12.9% | 92.5% |
| Dillon Gee | NYM | 0.285 | 0.309 | 0.024 | 4.0% | 87.5% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.303 | 0.257 | -0.046 | 7.9% | 82.3% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.272 | 0.249 | -0.023 | 16.7% | 85.0% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.307 | 0.304 | -0.003 | 13.4% | 80.8% |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.266 | 0.284 | 0.018 | 11.9% | 91.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.307 | 0.258 | -0.049 | 11.3% | 85.2% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.290 | 0.273 | -0.017 | 16.1% | 88.9% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.291 | 0.319 | 0.028 | 5.7% | 86.1% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.281 | 0.341 | 0.06 | 0.0% | 90.4% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.283 | 0.301 | 0.018 | 10.1% | 92.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.302 | 0.211 | -0.091 | 16.0% | 84.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.284 | 0.244 | -0.04 | 11.7% | 87.5% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.293 | 0.244 | -0.049 | 0.0% | 89.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.288 | 0.310 | 0.022 | 10.4% | 87.1% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 0.281 | 0.252 | -0.029 | 8.5% | 94.6% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.264 | 0.228 | -0.036 | 5.4% | 87.2% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.294 | 0.279 | -0.015 | 11.9% | 89.8% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.298 | 0.297 | -0.001 | 4.1% | 85.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.301 | 0.267 | -0.034 | 6.8% | 80.5% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.282 | 0.250 | -0.032 | 13.2% | 87.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.286 | 0.329 | 0.043 | 9.7% | 84.2% |
| Taylor Jordan | WAS | 0.319 | 0.316 | -0.003 | 14.3% | 90.9% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 0.279 | 0.286 | 0.007 | 4.4% | 90.0% |
| Trevor May | MIN | 0.299 | 0.352 | 0.053 | 12.7% | 83.4% |
NOTE – All pitchers worth considering tonight were covered above.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Anibal Sanchez faces a team that makes contact and hits RHP well and that combined with his ERA keeps his price more reasonable among our high strikeout pitchers tonight. He projects for about a league average K% tonight and there’s some value in that with some of the top pitchers having tough matchups.
Chris Sale is still likely to generate a lot of strikeouts and should do well tonight, but Texas has become an offensive powerhouse and his high cost may not offer that much value beyond his price tag without a certain amount of risk.
Cole Hamels should also pitch well and generate at least a league average K%, but the Reds do have some power and he’s priced among the top pitchers like Sale and Kluber, where I feel his upside has a slightly lower ceiling than theirs.
Corey Kluber rates as my top projected performance and a contender for top overall value tonight. He’s dominating and the Royals have hit the skids. They’re striking out a lot more than usual and he should be able to take advantage of that tonight. Sale may generate just as many Ks, but Kluber comes with a bit less risk for the same price.
Dan Haren definitely has some adjustments coming, but he’s affordable and the Cubs strike out a lot, which leaves him with some potential value tonight.
Dillon Gee was doing some interesting things and getting more swings and misses before his injury. The Padres will strike out and I think Petco might still be a pitcher’s park. Maybe he’ll make it a 3rd straight day with double digit Ks and hits allowed.
James Shields – If Gee doesn’t do it, he has a shot too. He’s priced just below the top guys tonight and there’s too much strikeout potential against a bad road team to at not at least consider him. Beware that the Mets are hitting the ball really hard over the last week and he’s allowed a lot of hard contact this year.
Jason Vargas is not exactly a dumpster dive and doesn’t have much upside, but somehow usually does ok at home with an approach that favors his park and defense. His price is low enough that it could work out pairing him with a top guy for some salary relief and it would be very contrarian in tournaments.
Jon Lester is finally on a role and though the Marlins do hit LHP better than RHP it’s not really an overall matchup you fear. While he might not have the same upsides as a Shields at the same price or some of the other guys at higher prices, he likely doesn’t carry many of the same risks as well, making him a fine double up option on most sites.
Lance McCullers is our low priced, high upside play of the day. It could turn into a disaster and I don’t believe he’ll maintain his K% with his current SwStr%, but there is potential to get there tonight with a team that chases and misses a lot of pitches. The risk is that the power shows up and command issues that he dealt with in the minors at times returns.
Nate Karns has pitched well and is facing a team that hasn’t been good overall vs RHP in a good park at a cheap price. Now that we can buy into his K% a little more, there seems to be some upside here as well. The risk, of course, is that the Angels have been the hottest offense in baseball, though they were cooled down against one of the best RHP in baseball this year last night. His price on the top sites is probably worth the risk.
Trevor May – I don’t have any of his price tags in front of me because they didn’t import due to the double header, but I’m assuming they’re very low and we’ve spoken of several reasons for optimism for him going forward.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.