Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, May 13th
We have two mid-afternoon games today and Cleveland is doing their silly one hour early thing again, but the other twelve are at night in a larger than normal Wednesday night slate. If you thought there were some bad pitchers going yesterday, wait until you get a load of some of these sad sacks. Let’s try to sort it all out starting now.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ | CombK% | CombBB% | CombLD% | CombHR/FB% | CombIFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 5.8 | 4.01 | 5.35 | 3.03 | 1.04 | 3.71 | 5.88 | BAL | 122 | 113 | 91 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 19.0% | 15.2% | 4.5% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | -6.2 | 3.66 | 4.88 | 1.42 | 0.94 | 4.17 | 5.09 | TAM | 110 | 95 | 112 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 22.5% | 9.5% | 16.9% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 4.2 | 4.24 | 6.12 | 0.87 | 1.01 | 4.3 | SFO | 95 | 90 | 102 | ||||||
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 10.2 | 3.01 | 4.25 | 1.83 | 0.89 | 3.33 | 2.9 | FLA | 92 | 88 | 93 | 21.7% | 6.1% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.9% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | -0.4 | 3.3 | 6.73 | 1.31 | 1.01 | 3.22 | 3.85 | PIT | 73 | 70 | 108 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 24.0% | 11.6% | 12.4% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -7.1 | 2.85 | 6.53 | 1.63 | 0.94 | 2.67 | 4.07 | STL | 104 | 111 | 110 | 21.2% | 6.5% | 20.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% |
| Eric Stults | ATL | -10.1 | 4.31 | 5.86 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 3.95 | 3.98 | CIN | 83 | 99 | 99 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 13.7% | 7.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -1.4 | 3.5 | 5.93 | 1.96 | 1.01 | 3.22 | 3.26 | PHI | 64 | 98 | 85 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 22.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -9 | 3.52 | 6.09 | 1.37 | 1.09 | 3.37 | 2.28 | ARI | 93 | 103 | 139 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 21.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 4.5 | 4.45 | 5.31 | 0.7 | 0.91 | 4.81 | 4.71 | COL | 92 | 70 | 72 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 19.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% |
| James Shields | SDG | -23.8 | 3.65 | 6.59 | 1.23 | 0.85 | 3.52 | 3.1 | SEA | 116 | 98 | 138 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 19.0% | 18.9% | 10.2% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | -0.5 | 4.52 | 5.96 | 2.13 | 0.89 | 4.1 | 3.57 | LOS | 146 | 135 | 162 | 18.3% | 10.5% | 21.7% | 16.2% | 7.3% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 1.7 | 3.76 | 5.98 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 3.5 | 3.62 | NYM | 70 | 81 | 84 | 21.1% | 6.9% | 22.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 7.7 | 4.11 | 5.26 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 4.79 | 4.08 | WAS | 95 | 98 | 172 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 22.5% | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.7 | 3.71 | 5.74 | 1.48 | 1.07 | 3.56 | 2.74 | CHW | 80 | 97 | 115 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 20.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| John Lackey | STL | 16.9 | 3.63 | 6.52 | 1.33 | 0.94 | 3.89 | 3.48 | CLE | 113 | 101 | 124 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 21.1% | 9.8% | 13.1% |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 0.4 | 4.39 | 5.73 | 1.8 | 0.91 | 4.08 | 5.24 | ANA | 94 | 77 | 87 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 23.0% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -11.3 | 3.67 | 6.17 | 1.23 | 1.07 | 3.85 | 3.05 | MIL | 83 | 62 | 115 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 19.4% | 10.7% | 8.1% |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 9.1 | 4.52 | 6.02 | 1.65 | 1.05 | 4.51 | 3.81 | MIN | 68 | 102 | 113 | 16.4% | 7.3% | 20.2% | 5.3% | 10.2% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2.4 | 2.78 | 6.73 | 1.47 | 1.05 | 3.41 | 4.4 | CHC | 89 | 93 | 105 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 19.5% | 10.2% | 11.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 11.3 | 4.31 | 6.06 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 4.37 | 4.32 | TOR | 101 | 105 | 134 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 20.9% | 11.7% | 12.1% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 8 | 4.03 | 5.34 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 4.65 | 2.94 | NYY | 112 | 105 | 120 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 17.8% | 16.7% | 5.4% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 4.7 | 4.29 | 5. | 1.5 | 1.02 | 3.86 | ATL | 89 | 98 | 100 | ||||||
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 8 | 3.87 | 5.85 | 1.24 | 1.05 | 4.22 | 4.89 | DET | 102 | 104 | 96 | 16.7% | 7.7% | 24.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -17.7 | 3.48 | 6.56 | 1.98 | 0.93 | 3.54 | 3.43 | BOS | 85 | 93 | 58 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 19.0% | 7.6% | 12.4% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -12.3 | 4.11 | 5.08 | 1.34 | 0.85 | 4.57 | 3.95 | SDG | 93 | 98 | 111 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 19.5% | 13.2% | 5.4% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | -8 | 3.72 | 6.28 | 2.16 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 4.01 | HOU | 76 | 98 | 33 | 19.5% | 6.4% | 20.9% | 15.1% | 8.4% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -9.8 | 3.84 | 5.99 | 1.85 | 0.93 | 3.74 | 3.1 | OAK | 113 | 52 | 89 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 10.1% | 7.5% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 22.2 | 3.97 | 5.9 | 1.56 | 1.08 | 4.03 | 5.91 | TEX | 88 | 74 | 112 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 20.5% | 9.8% | 6.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.1 | 3.85 | 5.89 | 1.75 | 1.08 | 3.75 | 5.94 | KAN | 118 | 111 | 111 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 22.4% | 11.6% | 7.0% |
Aaron Sanchez – You get a walk and you get a walk and you get a walk. We’re going to do something a little different today. We can talk about how Aaron Sanchez could and might be much worse this year, but we’re just going to stop right here and say the one time in his last three starts he’s allowed more than two runs is when he walked two and struck out seven. In his other three, he’s allowed just five runs in 11 innings with 18 BBs and 12 Ks. That’s just absurd and you don’t want any part of him when he those runs start crossing the plate. You can see all the warning signs in the charts below for yourself.
Brett Oberholtzer makes his 2015 debut. He wasn’t terrible last year, but wasn’t good either and doesn’t miss enough bats to be very fantasy relevant.
Carlos Frias has pitched well in his two starts, allowing just three runs in 10.1 IP with nine Ks. The Marlins have not hit RHP well.
Cole Hamels is impossible to predict. He’s allowed at least four ERs in three of his starts, but a total of three ERs in his other four. His most recent start was his best from a control standpoint with just two BBS to eight Ks. After allowing seven HRs in his first three starts, he’s allowed just one total over his last four and has an elite -2.5 Hard-Soft% for the season. In fact, he leads the majors in soft contact rate at 30.2%. The Pirates have been bad on the road and vs LHP with a 29.1 K%, but 17.6 HR/FB against southpaws.
Francisco Liriano may look like he’s coming off an awful start with two HRs and five ERs allowed to the Cardinals, but he struck out 10 with just 1 BB and only allowed seven to reach base. The Phillies have actually been league average vs LHP, but are still the worst home offense in baseball and impact the baseball with a league worst 2.1 Hard-Soft% overall.
James Shields has simplified the game. He wants to make sure that defense never has to touch the ball. You either get a HR or a strikeout. That’s it. No other options. Seattle has the 4th best home offense in baseball now and hit the ball harder (18.2 H-S%) than any team in baseball. They have a 17.8 HR/FB over the last week.
Jarred Cosart struggled last time out and only had two strikeouts, but 10 of his 15 batted balls were on the ground. His -1.8 H-S% is elite as far as contact authority goes. He won’t dazzle you, but he might be the sort of pitcher who frustrates the Dodgers with a 58.7 GB%. You’re not going to use him, but you may want to be cautious when entertaining the idea of a Dodger stack, though they continue to maul RH pitching at home at obscene rates.
Jason Hammel has been pitching well. The Mets have not been hitting well and are the 3rd worst road offense in baseball.
Jimmy Nelson allowed three HRs in his last start, but struck out 11 Cubs. He hasn’t been able to sustain the high ground ball rate from his first few starts, but has kept missing bats, the caveat being he’s faced some high strikeout teams. The White Sox have struck out just 13.2% over the last week.
Jordan Lyles has pitched poorly in any ballpark and is not worth your consideration as his 2.6 K-BB% exhibits. The Angels have the 3rd worst offense vs RHP.
Jose Quintana has allowed just a total of five ERs over his last three starts after a rough start to the season and is coming off a season high eight strikeouts. Milwaukee has the 3rd worst offense vs LHP, probably because a lot of their top RHBs have been injured at one time or another. They have a 20.2 K-BB% against them and just a 15.0 LD%, but 14.1 HR/FB.
Kyle Lobstein has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last three starts and only allowed a single run in his most recent, but has just 15 strikeouts in 33 innings on the year, good for a 2.9 K-BB%. He has a strong ground ball rate, but there’s just not much upside here. His ERA is being held down by the fact that none of his 25 fly balls have left the yard yet. Minnesota has just a 2nd worst road offense in baseball with a 4.2 HR/FB.
Matt Harvey is coming off two substandard starts by his standards since Terry Collins let him go out there in the 9th and throw over 100 pitches facing the Yankees. In the two starts since, he’s been held well short of that. It’s probably safe to say he has a leash and the manager’s job depends on him staying on it. That’s not to say he can’t be very effective and even dominant in 90 or so pitches, but he blames his last outing on an extra day of rest throwing off his routine. Sounds like an excuse, but who knows. The announcers mentioned him being extra motivated with Noah Syndergaard making his debut last night, but I think he’s always motivated to be great. It’s the fact that he’s facing a high strike out team in the Cubs that excites me. The Cubs 25.6 K% vs RHP exactly matches Harvey’s rate over the last two years. They’ve also struck out 28.9% over the last week and 25.9% at home.
Miguel Gonzalez is our last hope. No major league starting pitcher with 500 career innings or more has a LOB rate above 80%. He now stands at 80.1% through 471 career innings. Stranding just 35.7% of his runners like he did in his last start isn’t going to help and brought his season rate down below 80%. The Blue Jays have been hot with a 15.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Nate Karns is coming off his best start of the season. He’s allowed three ERs in 9.2 IP against the Yankees this year with many looking strikeouts. He’s allowed six HRs and the Yankees have a 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP and 15.8 HR/FB over the last week.
Raisel Iglesias is a less heralded Cuban acquisition that the Reds are looking to convert from a reliever to a starter. He throws hard with a good slider and a changeup that he throws infrequently. Fangraphs ranks him as the team’s 4th best prospect. His first start was mediocre at best against St Louis. Atlanta is a fairly neutral matchup. They don’t hit for power, but rarely strike out.
Ricky Nolasco has a surprisingly high 29.2 Soft% through three starts, though it hasn’t helped either his BABIP or bottom line. He struck out just one more (seven) than he’s walked (six). The Tigers have just a 6.1 HR/FB at home and 3.8 HR/FB over the last week.
Taijuan Walker had one of his better starts last time out, allowing three runs over five innings with six Ks. Missing bats has not been the problem, it’s the walks and the ones that do make contact hitting the ball hard 37.6% of the time. He’s going to need to find that control and command on a consistent basis before you can trust him.
Tim Hudson has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last five starts, but may have the top matchup of the day against the ice cold Astros, who now have the 2nd worst home offense in baseball where they’ve struck out 26.6% of the time, but with a 16.5 HR/FB. They’ve struck out 24.8% vs RHP and 27.6 over the last week.
Yordano Ventura has been awful and has the day’s worst 26.0 H-S% with a major league low 9.0 Soft%. Four of his 27 fly balls have left the yard. The Rangers are the 2nd worst offense vs RHP, but take their walks.
Yovani Gallardo has allowed exactly three ERs in each of his last four starts, but has an unearned run credited in three of them and hasn’t completed seven innings in a start this year. Kansas City offers even less fantasy upside for him.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 19.4% | 12.9% | Road | 17.3% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 20.0% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 19.9% | 8.4% | Road | 18.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Astros | 15.3% | 4.5% | Home | 13.5% | 3.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 21.2% | 5.3% | Home | 19.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 4.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 23.7% | 6.3% | Home | 23.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 8.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 26.0% | 5.4% | Home | 26.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Eric Stults | Braves | 14.7% | 5.3% | Road | 15.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 1.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.3% | 10.6% | Road | 29.2% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 7.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 24.0% | 8.6% | Road | 24.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 5.6% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.1% | 10.9% | Home | 20.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 12.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 20.5% | 6.0% | Road | 21.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 5.8% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 14.6% | 10.3% | Road | 16.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 20.2% | 6.2% | Home | 21.5% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 18.0% | 6.7% | Home | 16.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 6.4% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.5% | 7.4% | Home | 21.5% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 5.4% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 19.6% | 5.3% | Road | 15.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 6.9% |
| Jordan Lyles | Rockies | 14.8% | 8.4% | Road | 16.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.7% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 20.7% | 6.5% | Road | 18.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 14.0% | 8.3% | Home | 12.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 25.6% | 3.6% | Road | 25.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 4.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 17.3% | 7.6% | Home | 17.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 6.5% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 22.6% | 10.6% | Home | 22.4% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 6.7% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 19.1% | 9.5% | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | 18.2% | 5.7% | Road | 16.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 4.7% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.8% | 8.1% | Home | 20.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 11.9% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 20.5% | 10.1% | Home | 25.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 7.3% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 15.3% | 5.1% | Road | 12.5% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 3.4% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 19.1% | 8.2% | Road | 20.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 1.9% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 19.7% | 8.9% | Road | 19.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 13.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 18.6% | 7.6% | Home | 18.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 7.6% | 11.3% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 21.3% | 6.4% | RH | 24.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.5% |
| Rays | Home | 23.3% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.2% |
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 8.3% | LH | 19.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.8% | 7.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.9% | 7.6% | RH | 21.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.6% | 6.1% | LH | 29.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.4% | 7.7% | RH | 16.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.0% |
| Reds | Home | 23.9% | 9.8% | LH | 21.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.5% | 6.4% | LH | 16.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 19.0% | 8.2% | LH | 18.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.9% | 4.8% | LH | 23.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.3% | 7.7% | RH | 20.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.0% | 9.8% | RH | 20.1% | 10.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 12.9% |
| Mets | Road | 20.6% | 6.9% | RH | 19.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.1% | 8.2% | RH | 21.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 18.9% | 6.1% | RH | 18.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 13.2% | 8.1% |
| Indians | Home | 17.4% | 10.1% | RH | 17.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Home | 19.3% | 7.4% | RH | 20.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 4.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 23.1% | 7.7% | LH | 24.6% | 4.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.2% |
| Twins | Road | 22.8% | 7.6% | LH | 17.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.9% | 10.0% | RH | 25.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.9% | 9.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.3% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
| Braves | Road | 16.4% | 9.0% | RH | 15.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 15.2% | 7.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.0% | 9.2% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.6% | 9.9% | RH | 15.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 9.4% |
| Padres | Road | 20.5% | 7.8% | RH | 19.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.2% | 12.0% |
| Astros | Home | 26.6% | 9.2% | RH | 24.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 14.7% | 8.0% | LH | 18.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 20.4% | 9.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.3% |
| Royals | Road | 15.9% | 5.1% | RH | 16.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 14.2% | 5.8% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 16.7% | 13.9% | 5.6% | Road | 20.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 22.7% | 9.2% | 11.0% | Road | 22.8% | 8.2% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Astros | 21.0% | 5.7% | 9.0% | Home | 19.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 15.3% | 12.2% | 4.9% | Home | 13.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 21.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | Home | 23.9% | 16.3% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 5.9% | 17.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 23.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | Home | 19.9% | 10.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Eric Stults | Braves | 21.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | Road | 18.3% | 14.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 21.1% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.7% | 10.5% | 6.5% | Road | 18.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | Road | 17.4% | 10.1% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 19.7% | 8.7% | 14.5% | Home | 17.1% | 7.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | Road | 17.5% | 14.3% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 46.7% | 13.3% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 19.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | Road | 17.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.6% | 12.6% | 8.9% | Home | 20.9% | 11.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 21.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | Home | 21.7% | 10.3% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | Home | 18.9% | 11.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.5% | 11.8% | 12.9% | Road | 19.6% | 17.3% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Jordan Lyles | Rockies | 21.8% | 11.2% | 7.1% | Road | 26.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.8% | 7.9% | 11.7% | Road | 22.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 18.3% | 4.2% | 9.9% | Home | 19.2% | 4.3% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 20.7% | 6.2% | 11.0% | Road | 13.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 6.3% | 18.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% | Home | 19.5% | 11.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 16.9% | 20.9% | 9.0% | Home | 10.4% | 29.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 23.1% | 0.0% | 25.0% | Home | 23.1% | 0.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | 23.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | Road | 24.3% | 13.7% | 2.1% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 18.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | Home | 19.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 24.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | Home | 18.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 20.5% | 9.9% | 5.9% | Road | 21.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 21.0% | 13.8% | 4.0% | Road | 22.2% | 7.5% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 21.0% | 9.9% | 7.1% | Road | 23.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 20.3% | 12.3% | 5.2% | Home | 20.8% | 16.0% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 24.2% | 15.8% | 7.2% | RH | 22.7% | 18.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 18.0% | 8.0% |
| Rays | Home | 21.4% | 13.5% | 14.2% | RH | 20.5% | 8.6% | 12.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 17.2% | 12.1% |
| Giants | Road | 24.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | LH | 23.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | L7Days | 19.3% | 2.0% | 10.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.8% | 11.7% | 7.8% | RH | 22.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.0% | 14.0% | 9.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | LH | 22.8% | 17.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 13.1% | 9.8% | RH | 21.3% | 9.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 12.8% | 4.3% |
| Reds | Home | 20.8% | 16.2% | 11.7% | LH | 23.1% | 12.3% | 4.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | LH | 23.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 12.3% | 9.9% | LH | 16.8% | 9.8% | 16.4% | L7Days | 25.2% | 20.8% | 9.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.4% | 12.2% | 8.6% | LH | 22.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.1% | 12.1% | 7.0% | RH | 19.6% | 11.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 17.8% | 6.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 24.0% | 18.2% | 11.0% | RH | 21.8% | 19.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 18.4% | 6.1% |
| Mets | Road | 23.3% | 8.1% | 13.7% | RH | 22.6% | 6.3% | 13.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.9% | 10.0% | 7.3% | RH | 20.7% | 13.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 27.5% | 5.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.2% | 6.5% | 17.8% | RH | 24.5% | 9.7% | 14.2% | L7Days | 26.9% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| Indians | Home | 23.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | RH | 20.6% | 12.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Angels | Home | 22.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | RH | 20.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.2% | LH | 15.0% | 14.1% | 3.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 21.9% | 6.3% |
| Twins | Road | 20.6% | 4.2% | 16.2% | LH | 22.3% | 7.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 21.2% | 11.9% | 8.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.4% | 10.7% | 14.0% | RH | 21.0% | 12.6% | 13.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 17.2% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 17.8% | 11.3% | 13.1% | RH | 17.5% | 12.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 25.2% | 15.9% | 13.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.4% | RH | 21.5% | 13.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 15.8% | 7.0% |
| Braves | Road | 23.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | RH | 23.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 25.7% | 3.8% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 23.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | RH | 22.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 3.8% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.3% | 10.5% | 15.2% | RH | 19.7% | 10.4% | 14.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.3% | 18.2% |
| Padres | Road | 19.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | RH | 18.2% | 11.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Astros | Home | 16.0% | 16.5% | 10.8% | RH | 22.1% | 14.5% | 12.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.4% | 13.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 21.4% | 6.3% | 9.5% | LH | 18.3% | 3.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 20.1% | 9.2% | 11.5% | RH | 16.0% | 6.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 16.2% | 13.7% | 6.8% |
| Royals | Road | 26.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | RH | 23.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 16.9% | 5.9% | 2.86 | 18.6% | 6.3% | 2.95 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 12.0% | 7.5% | 1.60 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 2.01 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | ||||||
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 21.2% | 9.8% | 2.16 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 2.16 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 24.7% | 11.8% | 2.09 | 25.4% | 11.5% | 2.21 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 23.8% | 12.7% | 1.87 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 1.81 |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 15.1% | 5.9% | 2.56 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 2.45 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 29.1% | 13.5% | 2.16 | 29.6% | 13.0% | 2.28 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 24.4% | 8.6% | 2.84 | 26.1% | 9.6% | 2.72 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.4% | 8.0% | 2.55 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 2.64 |
| James Shields | SDG | 30.4% | 14.2% | 2.14 | 31.5% | 14.6% | 2.16 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 14.4% | 7.2% | 2.00 | 16.4% | 7.0% | 2.34 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 22.9% | 7.9% | 2.90 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 3.03 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 16.6% | 9.4% | 1.77 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.01 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 24.8% | 12.3% | 2.02 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 1.90 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.0% | 10.9% | 1.56 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 1.71 |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 13.5% | 8.7% | 1.55 | 14.3% | 9.1% | 1.57 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 19.9% | 8.4% | 2.37 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 2.41 |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 11.0% | 6.7% | 1.64 | 11.0% | 6.7% | 1.64 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 24.2% | 11.5% | 2.10 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 2.00 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 19.9% | 8.8% | 2.26 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.22 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 23.0% | 7.6% | 3.03 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 3.12 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.82 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.82 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 11.3% | 6.5% | 1.74 | 11.6% | 7.7% | 1.51 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.39 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.43 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.19 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.18 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 11.5% | 8.7% | 1.32 | 12.9% | 8.7% | 1.48 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 16.5% | 7.4% | 2.23 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 1.83 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 17.1% | 8.9% | 1.92 | 18.5% | 8.5% | 2.18 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.58 | 14.6% | 5.1% | 2.86 |
Jason Hammel had a season high eight Ks in his last start, but also a season best 11.1 SwStr%. That’s more in line with what he’ll have to do to keep his current K%, which sits just above last year’s mark with a much lower SwStr%. For his career, his SwStr is pretty close to this year’s mark, so maybe it was last year that was the aberration, but his career K rate is just 17.5%.
Jordan Lyles has shown some of the strongest SwStr rates of his career, yet his K% is exactly two points below his career average. I’d expect his K% to rise by at least four or five points if he keeps this up, but that’s questionable too. It’s still probably not enough to make him useful with a 10.9 BB%.
Nate Karns has had a double digit SwStr% in each of his last two starts after not reaching 8% in any of his first four starts. If he maintains his latest step forward, he may be able to sustain an above average K%. His two lowest SwStr% games have been against the Yankees (5.7% and 4.6%).
Ricky Nolasco – After just three starts and fewer than 20 innings this can change in a hurry, but he has a very average 9.3 career SwStr% with the expected 18.9 K%.
Tim Hudson has had a SwStr over 8% in four of his six starts, but only above 9% once. This is actually right around where his SwStr% usually sits though, despite just a 16.1 K%. He has a career 1.81 K/SwStr and I think we can safely say this is who he is, but there’s still some upside from his current 1.48 K/SwStr.
Yovani Gallardo has just five SwStrs over his last 210 pitches, including not a single on in over 100 pitches two starts back.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.62 | 5.43 | 1.81 | 4.93 | 1.31 | 5.68 | 2.06 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 4.81 | 1.71 | 4.94 | 1.84 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 4.65 | 5.07 | 0.42 | 4.81 | 0.16 | 4.31 | -0.34 | 5.26 | 4.98 | -0.28 | 4.73 | -0.53 | 4.39 | -0.87 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | ||||||||||||||
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 2.13 | 2.96 | 0.83 | 3 | 0.87 | 3.15 | 1.02 | 2.13 | 2.97 | 0.84 | 3 | 0.87 | 3.15 | 1.02 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 3.68 | 3.93 | 0.25 | 3.95 | 0.27 | 4.92 | 1.24 | 3.66 | 3.93 | 0.27 | 4.03 | 0.37 | 3.77 | 0.11 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 5.04 | 3.2 | -1.84 | 3.15 | -1.89 | 3.19 | -1.85 | 6.1 | 3.52 | -2.58 | 3.55 | -2.55 | 3.6 | -2.5 |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 4.84 | 4.37 | -0.47 | 4.27 | -0.57 | 5.07 | 0.23 | 4.75 | 4.37 | -0.38 | 4.27 | -0.48 | 4.63 | -0.12 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 2.79 | 3.31 | 0.52 | 3.16 | 0.37 | 3.53 | 0.74 | 2.84 | 3.24 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 0.26 | 3.37 | 0.53 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.62 | 3.25 | -0.37 | 3.09 | -0.53 | 2.69 | -0.93 | 3.48 | 2.95 | -0.53 | 2.71 | -0.77 | 2.37 | -1.11 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.57 | 4.63 | 2.06 | 4.88 | 2.31 | 4.57 | 2 | 2.12 | 4.72 | 2.6 | 4.88 | 2.76 | 4.46 | 2.34 |
| James Shields | SDG | 4.25 | 2.78 | -1.47 | 3.06 | -1.19 | 4.99 | 0.74 | 5.22 | 2.72 | -2.5 | 2.91 | -2.31 | 5.43 | 0.21 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 3.67 | 4.17 | 0.5 | 4.04 | 0.37 | 4.17 | 0.5 | 4.13 | 3.81 | -0.32 | 3.69 | -0.44 | 4.13 | 0 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.52 | 3.23 | -0.29 | 3.28 | -0.24 | 3.49 | -0.03 | 3.34 | 3.31 | -0.03 | 3.37 | 0.03 | 3.52 | 0.18 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 5.85 | 4.37 | -1.48 | 4.25 | -1.6 | 4.23 | -1.62 | 5.79 | 4.2 | -1.59 | 4.21 | -1.58 | 4.32 | -1.47 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.25 | 3.51 | -0.74 | 3.64 | -0.61 | 3.81 | -0.44 | 5.28 | 3.86 | -1.42 | 3.93 | -1.35 | 4.28 | -1 |
| John Lackey | STL | 3.2 | 4 | 0.8 | 3.83 | 0.63 | 3.15 | -0.05 | 2.7 | 3.58 | 0.88 | 3.41 | 0.71 | 2.25 | -0.45 |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 4.42 | 5.01 | 0.59 | 4.65 | 0.23 | 4.18 | -0.24 | 4.7 | 5.12 | 0.42 | 4.65 | -0.05 | 4.32 | -0.38 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 5.03 | 3.85 | -1.18 | 3.97 | -1.06 | 3.65 | -1.38 | 4.34 | 3.77 | -0.57 | 3.79 | -0.55 | 3.25 | -1.09 |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 3 | 4.56 | 1.56 | 4.29 | 1.29 | 3.24 | 0.24 | 3 | 4.56 | 1.56 | 4.29 | 1.29 | 3.24 | 0.24 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2.72 | 3.08 | 0.36 | 3.2 | 0.48 | 3.07 | 0.35 | 3.21 | 3.37 | 0.16 | 3.44 | 0.23 | 3.5 | 0.29 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 3.57 | 4.25 | 0.68 | 4.12 | 0.55 | 4.25 | 0.68 | 3.94 | 4.08 | 0.14 | 4.04 | 0.1 | 4.29 | 0.35 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.79 | 4.12 | 0.33 | 4.2 | 0.41 | 4.76 | 0.97 | 2.86 | 3.9 | 1.04 | 3.97 | 1.11 | 4.44 | 1.58 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 5.4 | 4.29 | -1.11 | 3.86 | -1.54 | 2.75 | -2.65 | 5.4 | 4.29 | -1.11 | 3.86 | -1.54 | 2.75 | -2.65 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 9 | 5.53 | -3.47 | 5.72 | -3.28 | 3.68 | -5.32 | 6.3 | 4.89 | -1.41 | 4.85 | -1.45 | 3.05 | -3.25 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 1.65 | 3.64 | 1.99 | 3.72 | 2.07 | 2.66 | 1.01 | 2.14 | 3.37 | 1.23 | 3.35 | 1.21 | 2.2 | 0.06 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 8.13 | 4.36 | -3.77 | 4.59 | -3.54 | 5.28 | -2.85 | 5.92 | 4.27 | -1.65 | 4.5 | -1.42 | 5.04 | -0.88 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 4.5 | 4.14 | -0.36 | 3.99 | -0.51 | 4.97 | 0.47 | 5.35 | 3.7 | -1.65 | 3.56 | -1.79 | 4.93 | -0.42 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 6.91 | 4.62 | -2.29 | 4.54 | -2.37 | 4.3 | -2.61 | 7.71 | 5.02 | -2.69 | 4.93 | -2.78 | 4.82 | -2.89 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 5.13 | 4.31 | -0.82 | 4.27 | -0.86 | 4.71 | -0.42 | 5.93 | 4.25 | -1.68 | 4.19 | -1.74 | 4.5 | -1.43 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 4.19 | 4.18 | -0.01 | 4.08 | -0.11 | 4.36 | 0.17 | 3.72 | 4.48 | 0.76 | 4.3 | 0.58 | 4.49 | 0.77 |
Hector Santiago has stranded 87% of his runners with help from a .237 BABIP. You don’t want to buy into this. He has generated an amazing nine pop ups in 45 fly balls, but his 34.7 Hard% is among the league’s worst marks.
James Shields – The difference between his FIP and other estimators are completely insane. Eleven of his 44 fly balls have left the yard and his 36.0 Hard% is tied for 8th worst in the majors. However, he’s 2nd in the majors in K% and his 23.8 K-BB% is 6th best and despite all the HR’s, he’s stranded 81.3% of his runners because of all the strikeouts probably.
Jimmy Nelson might see his BABIP rise a bit, but should also improve on his 65.9 LOB%. He has allowed just a 14.3 LD% and has a strong 3.2 H-S%.
Jose Quintana has had some BABIP difficulties that have remained even in his recent good starts. Everything in his batted ball mix looks very similar to last season and his Hard-Soft% is even the same league average rate. There are two things though. First, he had a .318 BABIP last year, so I’m not saying his batted ball rates were good, just similar. Second, look at that team BABIP in the chart below. And now you see the answer.
Ricky Nolasco has a .417 BABIP through 16 innings. His 27.1 LD% matches his Hard%, though he hasn’t allowed a HR yet and has a very high softly hit rate as mentioned above. He’s stranded just 51.9% of his runners.
Taijuan Walker has been hit hard. Five of his 33 fly balls have left the yard with only one pop up. That said, his .386 BABIP and 58.3 LOB% both likely have some regression in them.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.286 | 0.239 | -0.047 | 5.0% | 93.4% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.292 | 0.297 | 0.005 | 16.7% | 89.9% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 0.270 | ||||
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 0.283 | 0.297 | 0.014 | 12.5% | 96.6% |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 0.309 | 0.245 | -0.064 | 18.2% | 87.3% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.346 | 0.364 | 0.018 | 8.3% | 86.7% |
| Eric Stults | ATL | 0.293 | 0.282 | -0.011 | 4.4% | 92.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.306 | 0.186 | -0.12 | 11.1% | 86.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.326 | 0.375 | 0.049 | 0.0% | 87.6% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.262 | 0.237 | -0.025 | 20.0% | 85.5% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.294 | 0.300 | 0.006 | 18.2% | 80.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 0.290 | 0.231 | -0.059 | 8.0% | 91.9% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.301 | 0.280 | -0.021 | 2.4% | 90.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.307 | 0.369 | 0.062 | 2.6% | 86.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.302 | 0.273 | -0.029 | 9.1% | 86.5% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.292 | 0.280 | -0.012 | 18.4% | 88.7% |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 0.334 | 0.313 | -0.021 | 16.1% | 90.1% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.321 | 0.353 | 0.032 | 8.3% | 89.7% |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 0.283 | 0.288 | 0.005 | 12.0% | 91.7% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.281 | 0.269 | -0.012 | 12.2% | 85.6% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.270 | 0.255 | -0.015 | 14.7% | 91.0% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.261 | 0.190 | -0.071 | 5.0% | 87.1% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 0.267 | 0.333 | 0.066 | 25.0% | 87.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 0.289 | 0.417 | 0.128 | 10.5% | 95.4% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.277 | 0.254 | -0.023 | 8.5% | 86.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.291 | 0.386 | 0.095 | 3.0% | 85.2% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 0.282 | 0.292 | 0.01 | 3.6% | 89.3% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.309 | 0.319 | 0.01 | 3.0% | 87.9% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.263 | 0.281 | 0.018 | 0.0% | 93.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.290 | 0.283 | -0.007 | 5.1% | 87.2% |
Cole Hamels – We’ve already seen most of the aggression that’s been expected from his previously sub .200 BABIP over the last several starts. His eight IFFBs is already more than half of what he had all of last year.
Francisco Liriano has dominant stuff, but I don’t see how you serve up a .186 BABIP with a 23.6 LD%. His line drive rate is actually higher than his hit hard rate (22.2%). Soft line drives?
Jarred Cosart – I’ve recently stated that although Hard% and Soft% correlate more with overall production type stats like wRC+ than BABIP, I think for ground ball pitchers, it can be more meaningful towards their BABIP. Generating a lot of weak ground balls is a great thing and that’s what he’s done. That doesn’t mean .231 though.
Nate Karns – The Tampa Bay defense has been helpful, but we all know sub .200 BABIPs aren’t a real sustainable thing. He does get credit for allowing just a 12.4 LD%, but doesn’t generate many pop ups. This speaks more to his 15.0 HR/FB than his BABIP, but he has the 5th highest hard hit rate (36.8%) in the majors.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Carlos Frias is the dumpster diving play of the day. His rock bottom price tag is a reflection of the fact that he’s only started a couple of games and was never expected to be part of the rotation. He won’t go deep into the game, but has pitched respectively both times out and has a decent matchup in a good park with a good defense behind him. He has the potential to return the highest point per fantasy dollar ratio today.
Cole Hamels is coming off a great start and he has the ability to do that more often, but has just been so inconsistent that you struggle with paying up for him unless he’s in a great spot because he’s priced like an ace. The Pirates might strike out against LHP, but also have some power that could be displayed in a smaller park. Hamels has pretty much fixed his early season HR problem, but still has an 11.1 career HR/FB.
Francisco Liriano – The Phillies have only struck out 16.4% vs LHP, but Liriano has enough talent to spike that small sample size number. The Phillies walk infrequently with little power and that’s an ideal matchup for Liriano….or basically anybody.
James Shields – I honestly don’t know what to do here. It’s supposed to be a great spot in Safeco, but this could be a HR for a strikeout all the way through.
Jimmy Nelson – Sure, I’ll take a strong K rate at a low price. He’s really only had one bad game because his three HRs came with 11 Ks last time out. Chicago loses their cleanup hitter again without the DH.
Jose Quintana faces a banged up offense that has been bad vs LHP, though they’ll hit the occasional HR. Did you see the lineup they ran out against Sale last night? His worth a mid-range price, especially on a night like this, with limited upside.
Matt Harvey is coming off a mediocre start against the Phillies and hasn’t been sharp over his last two. The one thing I failed to mention earlier was his 12.8 SwStr% in his last start. His breaking stuff wasn’t crisp though as it didn’t look like he had a feel for it and bounced a lot of them. Maybe he’ll be fired up to stop a losing streak and with the debut of the next coming of Matt Harvey last night. Anyway, the Cubs strike out a ton and who else are you putting all your money into tonight? It’s not the usual ringing endorsement I give him, but it’s going to have to suffice.
Nate Karns is probably the guy I get asked about most often in comment on articles where I don’t recommend him and it’s usually because all of the stuff in the last three charts (SwStr and BABIP along with HR/FB). The Yankees are a team he’s had two of his flukiest starts against, getting several strikeouts without the benefit of swings and misses, but his price is reasonable enough and he is missing more bats lately plus coming off his best start. He’s not my top option tonight and I still don’t trust entirely trust him, but he is an option.
Tim Hudson might have a bit of hidden strikeout upside, though not much, which can be realized against the Astros. He hasn’t been good, but they haven’t hit much worse pitching over the last week plus and he’s cheap.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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