Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, May 6th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-05-08 19:23:49

Two small pieces of business to mention here before getting started. The first is that Arizona and Colorado are playing a doubleheader today to make up at least one of the games that was rained out this week. They were originally scheduled for a day game today, but we’re going to chart only the pitchers from the 2nd game (if correct) due to space limitations (only 30 rows formatted). All pitchers will be listed today, but notes will only be for the night games.

I saw Eno Sarris tweet last night that the new Hard% stat does not correlate well with BABIP and even less than LD%. While this was heartbreaking, reading the conversation that continued A) completely went over my head when the really smart people started talking and B) revealed that Hard% does correlate much better with wRC+, which makes some sense as hard hit balls are more likely to go for HRs and extra-base hits. All hits are not created equal, although batting average would have you think so. As a result, stats like my newly made up Hard-Soft% (H-S% for short from now on) will still be used in evaluation of a pitcher’s overall performance, just not as much towards their BABIP.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

Alex Colome induced 11 swinging strikes (60 pitches) in a spectacular season debut against Baltimore, but contact authority stats say five of his 12 batted balls were hit hard with no weak contact.

Alfredo Simon has a slightly improved 11.8 K-BB% this season and an ERA closer to his estimators. He faces one of the weaker hitting teams in the league. They are the third-worst home offense and haven’t homered in over a week.

C.J. Wilson has allowed two ER or less in four of his five starts. He’s only allowed one HR this season, but the Mariners have a 16.4 HR/FB vs LHP. Seattle is now the hardest hitting team in the majors (16.7 Hard-Soft%).

Carlos Carrasco was roughed up a bit in his second straight start. Fellow RG writer JMtoWin, who watched the game while I did not, noted that he had all the great stuff going, but seemed timid in spots against Toronto’s top hitters. It makes sense when you look at his final line and is good news because it should be correctable. Pitchf/x shows more sliders (28.4%) in that start than normal, but for the past month, he’s nearly doubled his change-up usage to 21.3%. He has the lowest combined estimators in today’s main chart when you add up his SIERA for the last two calendar years, road xFIP, and SIERA over the last two weeks. Kansas City has a tough offense at home vs RHP and strike out just 12.3% of the time in Kansas City.

C.C. Sabathia has struck out just 10 of his last 81 batters. He’s basically Tom Glavine now and I’ll say the same thing as I said last time. Check the umpiring schedule. If he gets a generous one, he can live on the corners and be good. If he has to throw real strikes, he may get shelled. This one may be extra tough on him as he faces the third-best home offense where they homer on 14.2% of their fly balls and toughest on LHP, whom they strike out just 14.3% of the time against.

Chris Sale was pounded in his last start and it might take him a while to work those numbers off, but you’ll find out later why you probably shouldn’t worry. He faces a tough Detroit offense he pitched well against a couple of weeks ago, but has a 27.6 K% at home since the start of last season (2.52 xFIP).

Colby Lewis dominated Oakland in his last outing and hasn’t been bad this season. He faces a Houston team that has done nothing the last two nights against inferior lefties. When you combine his H-S% over the last two years (21.9%) with Houston’s this season (12.5%), you get the highest combined Hard-Soft rate of the day (34.4%). The Astros also strike out 26.4% at home and 24.1% vs RHP, though that comes with 17.5 and 15.4 HR/FBs.

Danny Duffy is coming off his best start of the season and has a 4.3 HR/FB at home since the start of last season, but with an 11.9 BB%. He faces a red hot Cleveland offense with an 11.3 BB% and 17.4 HR/FB over the last week.

Gerrit Cole has struck out at least six in every start and now has a 22.3 K-BB% on the season. His main chart estimators rival Carrasco’s for the top spot today and he owns a very impressive 2.6 H-S% this season. His star is rising with every start and he may be on his way to some Cy Young votes this season. The Reds have hit for some power, including a couple from the right side last night in the toughest park on RH power in the majors.

Jacob deGrom hasn’t looked like the same pitcher who won Rookie of the Year in his last two starts, being roughed up for nine ERs in 10.1 IP with just six strikeouts. His K-BB is down to 12.7%. Was he a flash in the pan? He still has all the pitches, throwing them all at the same rates and the same speeds. The Orioles have a 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP, but have struck out 23.7% of the time against them.

Joe Wieland comes over from the Padres where he’s missed most of the last two seasons with an injury, but was a prospect of some note who had a 25.0 K-BB% in four minor league starts this season. He did not once surpass five innings though. He faces the surprisingly second-worst home offense in a hitter’s park.

Jon Lester has been getting back on track in recent starts. We’ll talk about his issues this season later and why a rebound should have been expected. He faces the second-hardest hitting team in the majors (15.1 H-S%), but with just a 2.6 HR/FB vs LHP.

Justin Masterson has averaged 87.8 mph on his fastball this year. He averaged 90.1 last year and 92.2 for his career. He’s still been able to keep the ball on the ground and somehow has the lowest combined Hard-Soft rate of the day, (13.1%) adding his number over the last two years (6.1%) with Tampa Bay’s this season (7%). The Rays are tied for the worst offense over the last week.

Lance Lynn has the top combined K rate in today’s chart. We’ll tell you why you should be skeptical of his strikeouts this year, but the Cubs have the highest combined K% today (23.6% on the road, 24.6% vs RHP, and 32.2% over the last week). Lynn has just a 2.9 HR/FB at home since the start of last season.

Mike Foltynewicz walked more than he struck out in his Atlanta debut, but maybe he’ll do better against the weakest hitting offense in the majors (1.7 H-S%). They have just a 5.2 HR/FB on the road.

Mike Leake has pitched well in recent starts, though a sub .200 BABIP props him up even more. He normally offers little upside in his K rate though (just 14.4% on the road since the start of last season) and the Pirates have gotten their strikeouts under control recently.

Roenis Elias has struck out 14 of the 50 batters he’s faced in two starts. He faces the LA Trouts, who have hit well against LHP.

Samuel Deduno lasted just four innings in his first start of the season, but pitched well. He faces the 2nd worst offense vs RHP with just a 4.0 HR/FB against them.

Scott Kazmir has been really good this season, but faces the hottest bats in the majors.

Ubaldo Jiminez has been a magician this year with a strikeout rate well above his SwStr% and a BABIP below .200 driving a .159 ERA. Sooner or later the illusions are likely to be exposed, but he is doing well to induce weak contact (1.9 H-S% this year). He faces a cold offense that has shown little power this season.

Wily Peralta is coming off his best start of the season, but has the displeasure of facing the Los Angeles Mashers at home today in the day’s toughest matchup.

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Jerome Williams – A sub 2.0 K/SwStr is just something he does on the side for kicks. Seriously, he might be the only pitcher with a track record of more than a couple of years that this is true for. He has a career 1.69 K/SwStr.

Jordan Lyles does not have a history of doing this, nor much of a history of doing anything in the major leagues for that matter. I guess part of the problem is that he’s walking so many batters that he can’t get to three strikes before he reaches four balls.

Justin Masterson has had a SwStr below 6% in three of his last four starts, in which he’s faced some tough offensive teams. His K% is down, but his SwStr% is way down. There’s still time for him to make this up when he faces some mediocre and bad teams, but most worrisome is the significant drop in velocity mentioned above.

Kyle Gibson has had a SwStr above 7% in each four starts and has been above 8% in each of his last two, but maxed out at four strikeouts in his last start. Like Lyles, it’s been a struggle to get to strike three before ball four, but if anybody watches him on a consistent basis, what does he have to do to reach his untapped potential? Any Twins fans out there? Because this was an issue last year too and even had me tapping him as my pet sleeper this year. I’m glad I never wrote that article though.

Lance Lynn struck out 10 of 25 Pirates in his last start, but had a 12.9 SwStr%. His 9.5 SwStr% is just above his career rate that sits at an almost perfectly league average 9.2%. He has a career 23.3 K%, well below this year’s mark. Luckily, he faces another high whiff team, so his SwStr% may increase a bit more before his K% drops much.

Ubaldo Jimenez – His SwStr hasn’t topped 6% in any of his last three starts. Don’t buy into this. A 4.3 K/SwStr is ridiculous.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.89 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.89 xFIP – 3.89 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Carlos Carrasco has a fantastic 25.0 K-BB%, but the other stuff is getting in the way. The other stuff being when contact is made. Half of his 55 batted balls have been on the ground and that’s good. It’s the other 27 that have been concerning, as he has a disturbing 32.1 H-S% with 37.5% of his batted balls being hit hard. He’s only allowed 14 fly balls so we can’t worry that two have already left the yard yet, but the 23.6 LD% along with an atrocious team BABIP leave you with a .407 BABIP and 67.4 LOB%. The talent is still there and he figured out how to put it all together late last year, so he should be able to do so again.

C.C. Sabathia has a .340 BABIP despite a 15.8 LD%. He can’t make batters swing and miss at strikes anymore though, as a 90.3 Z-Contact% attests to, and they’re hitting the ball hard 30.4% of the time this year. Five of his 35 fly balls have left the park and that might be a trend he has to live with as he’s had a double digit HR/FB since 2012 and the AL East does him few favors there. If he gets his 65.8 LOB% up, his FIP in the low fours is the most likely scenario.

Chris Sale will be working off the destruction of his last start for a long time. The good news is that his peripherals look fine and only 20% of the balls were hit hard against him last time out according to Fangraphs. For the season, he has an excellent -5.8 H-S% that leads all of today’s pitchers. His LD% is a little high and that along with his defense may account for a high BABIP, but his zone contact is still borderline elite. His LOB% was actually above 80% in all of his first three starts and now sits at 62.9%. It will rebound and so will his ERA.

Jon Lester – His 18.0 K-BB% is just slightly less than last season, but still well above his career rate and he’s only allowed one HR. At the moment, his issue is his .360 BABIP, stemming from a 35.3 LD%, and 63.8 LOB%. His Z-Contact is actually the best of his career. Line drives have a high rate of variance. That is what has hurt him, but it’s something you would probably expect to settle down and now you know everything else looks fine. He’s already looked better in his most recent two starts.

Mark Buehrle is getting pounded. His 72.4 LOB% is somehow right near his career average though. He’s never been a high strikeout guy, but is reaching new lows this year with just a 3.0 K-BB% and he’s not walking more batters. Six of his 32 fly balls have left the yard and he has a 21.1 H-S% with 35.1% of his batted balls being hit hard. Hitters are making contact with almost everything he throws in the strike zone (worst Z-Contact in the majors) and tagging him for a 28.2 LD%. This might be the end for him. I’m hoping he can rebound and go out on a high note, if that’s his plan after the season, but it doesn’t look good.

Scott Kazmir has a career-high 19.7 K-BB% with a career-best 27.3 K%. That might help a guy to a higher strand rate, but not 93.8%. There is not one significant indicator in favor of his .222 BABIP. He doesn’t even have a single pop up yet and all his batted ball rates look normal. Expect an increase of about 50 points. He’s good, even very good maybe, but not great.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Like his K% in relation to his SwStr%, his .157 BABIP is also ridiculous, but at least we can point to a 67.3 GB% and 13.5 LD% as being pretty damn impressive. In addition, he has a 1.9 H-S%. His estimators will jump when his K% comes crashing down and his ERA will rise with his BABIP that will likely jump more than 100 points, but hitters aren’t squaring him up at all thus far.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .291 BABIP – 9.9 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Danny Duffy had a .239 BABIP in a career-high 149 innings last year. We knew that was going to regress, but even though the team has been exceptional at avoiding hits on balls in play and his IFFB remains elite (four in 24 fly balls), his BABIP has risen nearly 100 points. The difference is all in a 31.4 LD%. His IFFB is higher this year, but he had 28 last year when is FB rate was 18 points higher (27.9% vs 46%). He has a career 0.87 GB/FB, but is at 1.46 this year. Fly balls aren’t a bad thing in Kansas City with that outfield.

Lance Lynn has a career .307 BABIP and last year was his first below .300 and that’s because he’s been a high line drive guy in those previous seasons as he is again this year (27.0%). His other indicators in the chart above are more positive, so we should be looking at significant regression with the line drive rate coming at least a bit back closer to the pack.

Mike Leake – There is really nothing in his indicators in this chart or his batted ball rates that would signify a reduced BABIP, especially when his career rate is over 100 points higher.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Alex Colome has some swing-and-miss in him and some pedigree as a prospect. Those two things are generally the guys you’re most likely to want to take shots with on the bottom of the board.

Alfredo Simon – I don’t like paying for what he brings to the table, which is generally a low BABIP and high strand rate, but he’s pitched better in recent season, faces a struggling team, and has a low price tag in some places.

Carlos Carrasco – I’m sticking with him because despite the issues, the talent is still there and the strikeouts give you a solid floor. You may want to just keep him to a GPP play today. The Royals will challenge his ability to find K’s, but have struck out a more pedestrian 19.1% of the time over the last week.

Chris Sale – I’ve provided reasons not to be concerned, but he doesn’t have the best matchup and is the highest priced pitcher of the evening. Sale generally handles RHBs well, but the Tigers lean heavily towards a platoon advantage.

Gerrit Cole – Stud! The Reds were his toughest start of the season in his first one, but that was on the road. They’ve shown some power, but it’s still the toughest park for RH power and he hasn’t allowed a HR in four starts, in which he has allowed a total of three runs. Cole has at least six strikeouts every time out this season.

Jacob deGrom – I don’t think he’s a flash in the pan because the stuff is still there and he faces a cold team that strikes out a lot, but they also have a lot of power and he doesn’t come cheap. Perhaps another GPP only play today?

Jon Lester has looked better and should be fine going forward. He faces a tough St Louis team at home at a steep price, but should keep the in the park and pitch well.

Lance Lynn should retain a high strikeout rate for at least one more start against a team that has a lot of trouble making contact and he’s generally as solid as they come at home.

Mike Leake has little upside and won’t sustain his BABIP, but hasn’t pitched poorly this season and is affordable facing a struggling offense in a pitcher’s park.

Roenis Elias – The Angels have hit well against LHP, but he has some strikeout upside in a pitcher’s park against a struggling offense overall at an affordable price.

Samuel Deduno – A dumpster diving special! I’m not much of a fan, but he has decent stuff when he can control it and has the potential to be worth the bottom price on the board for five or six innings against a weak offense.

Ubaldo Jiminez – This is probably the most surprising part of the article, but nearly everybody has a price. His strikeouts and unsustainable BABIP will go away. However, he’s generating weak contact and carries a reasonable or even low price tag against an offense that has scored a total of three runs over the last three games, all of them last night in the same inning against the struggling Bud Norris. He’s not my favorite pitcher out there today, but I don’t hate taking a shot with Ubaldo tonight.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.