Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, August 19th
Friday was supposed to be glorious, but then Scherzer gets scratched with just minutes to swap to Kluber if you were lucky enough to catch the update immediately. And if you were, well…he certainly outscored Scherzer, but left in the sixth with an injury of his own. Then Mr. Shields shuts down the Rangers in Texas.
It’s okay though, it’s the weekend now. We’ve got Sale tonight. We’ve got Greinke. Gets a little murky after that. Or maybe a lot murky.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ariel Miranda | SEA | 7.4 | 4.82 | 5.62 | 31.6% | 0.96 | 5.98 | 5.59 | TAM | 99 | 89 | 66 |
Brandon Woodruff | MIL | -1.6 | 5.35 | 6. | 43.2% | 1.39 | 3.88 | 5.35 | COL | 90 | 81 | 112 |
CC Sabathia | NYY | 2.4 | 4.51 | 5.72 | 49.6% | 1.13 | 4.56 | 4.18 | BOS | 94 | 100 | 113 |
Chad Bettis | COL | -3.9 | 4.31 | 5.8 | 51.2% | 1.39 | 3.77 | 4.71 | MIL | 94 | 93 | 131 |
Chad Kuhl | PIT | -2.4 | 4.69 | 5.03 | 44.0% | 0.97 | 5.06 | 4.5 | STL | 96 | 100 | 138 |
Chris Sale | BOS | 5.4 | 2.97 | 6.97 | 39.6% | 1.13 | 3.1 | 1.84 | NYY | 99 | 87 | 105 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | -5.5 | 3.98 | 5.74 | 40.6% | 0.94 | 4.06 | 4.37 | OAK | 86 | 103 | 108 |
Derek Holland | CHW | -0.1 | 5.09 | 5.44 | 39.3% | 1.11 | 5.58 | 7.49 | TEX | 109 | 83 | 152 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 2.8 | 4.01 | 5.39 | 45.4% | 0.98 | 3.91 | 3.28 | DET | 114 | 124 | 135 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -0.5 | 4.38 | 5.57 | 33.8% | 0.96 | 4.5 | 6.52 | SEA | 95 | 103 | 131 |
Jason Vargas | KAN | 7.2 | 4.67 | 5.66 | 38.6% | 1.06 | 4.83 | 4.72 | CLE | 102 | 103 | 126 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 2 | 4.45 | 5.92 | 50.4% | 1.02 | 4.33 | 5.5 | BAL | 104 | 99 | 150 |
Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.2 | 4.19 | 5.87 | 39.8% | 0.93 | 4.36 | 4.06 | SFO | 80 | 82 | 86 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | -0.2 | 4.75 | 5.07 | 38.9% | 1.04 | 4.44 | 5.34 | ARI | 81 | 99 | 92 |
Jose Quintana | CHC | 3.2 | 3.97 | 6.24 | 42.7% | 0.96 | 3.88 | 5.35 | TOR | 92 | 99 | 88 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | -1.8 | 4.35 | 6.06 | 38.8% | 1 | 4.41 | 4.35 | CIN | 95 | 99 | 115 |
Kendall Graveman | OAK | -11.2 | 4.59 | 5.89 | 51.0% | 0.94 | 4.7 | 4 | HOU | 122 | 127 | 87 |
Kevin Gausman | BAL | -5.1 | 4.04 | 5.71 | 43.9% | 1.02 | 3.91 | 3.65 | ANA | 85 | 95 | 89 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 1.8 | 4.99 | 5.88 | 51.1% | 1.11 | 4.66 | 5.02 | CHW | 92 | 103 | 117 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 1.7 | 4.21 | 6.34 | 49.2% | 0.98 | 4.08 | 6.53 | LOS | 103 | 109 | 120 |
Michael Wacha | STL | -1.5 | 4.32 | 5.47 | 46.6% | 0.97 | 4.15 | 5.21 | PIT | 93 | 87 | 97 |
Nick Tepesch | TOR | -1.9 | 5.83 | 4. | 34.4% | 0.96 | 4.56 | 6.51 | CHC | 106 | 96 | 136 |
Rafael Montero | NYM | -1.6 | 4.73 | 4.77 | 44.6% | 0.91 | 5.11 | 4.28 | MIA | 99 | 96 | 112 |
Robert Stephenson | CIN | 7.3 | 5.11 | 4.74 | 37.1% | 1 | 6.22 | 2.99 | ATL | 85 | 86 | 91 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 1 | 3.13 | 6.2 | 0.418 | 0.91 | 3.29 | SDG | 89 | 87 | 82 | |
Travis Wood | SDG | -5.4 | 4.43 | 4.36 | 0.378 | 0.91 | 4.88 | 4.99 | WAS | 98 | 110 | 82 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.3 | 4.13 | 5.78 | 0.474 | 1.06 | 4.08 | 2.9 | KAN | 90 | 92 | 130 |
Ty Blach | SFO | -3 | 5.1 | 6.32 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 4.6 | 5.79 | PHI | 75 | 80 | 56 |
Vance Worley | MIA | 4.9 | 4.75 | 4.93 | 0.483 | 0.91 | 5.08 | 6.38 | NYM | 88 | 99 | 64 |
Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.4 | 3.65 | 6.4 | 0.468 | 1.04 | 3.46 | 3.58 | MIN | 103 | 100 | 149 |
Chris Sale has at least 11 strikeouts in six of his last eight and has struck out 25 of his last 55 batters. He has failed to reach seven innings in just 25% of his 24 starts this year. His 32.1 K-BB% leads the majors by more than two full points. That kind of number takes a lot of the sting out of Fenway. The Yankees have not been very good against LHP. In 22.2 innings against them this year, he’s struck out 35 of 87 batters (40.2%).
Collin McHugh has only started five games, but only dropped below a double digit SwStr% for the first time in his last one. His 12.8 SwStr% is third best on the board and would easily represent a career high. His 27.3 GB% is a little scary, but he’s allowed just 2.6% Barrels/BBE so far. Oakland has some power, but the 25% strikeout rate on the road and vs RHP is incredibly enticing.
Jerad Eickhoff has roughly league average peripherals (11.4 K-BB%), but too much hard contact (88 mph aEV) in the air (39.1 GB%). That’s not as much of a concern in one of the top matchups on the board (Giants 6.2 HR/FB at home, 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 3.5 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but his peripherals could take a hit.
Kevin Gausman is just one strong start away from dropping his ERA below five for the season. Over his last 11 starts, it’s actually not much above three (3.32) with matching estimators due to 29.3 K% with a 14.0 SwStr%. It basically all coincides with increased usage of his splitter. While the strikeouts have greatly improved, his hard hit rate still stands at one-third of batted balls over this stretch. The Angels don’t strike out a lot, but are a below average offense.
Trevor Bauer has struck out 21 of his last 59 batters with the most interesting part of it being a 12.2 SwStr%. He’s been striking out batters at a high clip all season, still without a SwStr rate to support that and an 88.9 mph aEV that’s highest on the board. The thing to do has been wait for it to all fall apart. The hard contact continues, although his last start was the first one in five tries with a hard hit rate above 30%. If he’s going to generate hard contact, Kansas City’s big outfield might be the place to do so. They don’t have much power in that park and rarely walk.
Zack Greinke has pitched at least two outs into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts with at least eight strikeouts in all four. His 28.4 K% and 13.0 SwStr% are behind only Sale today. The interesting thing is a 35.1 Hard% via Fangraphs and even 7.2% Barrels/BBE from Statcast, but just an 86.2 mph aEV and 28.6% 95+ mph EV. Minnesota is not actually a favorable spot. They have a 28.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week, but also a 26.4 K%.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jason Vargas (.289 – 81.7% – 10.6) has had at least a league average SwStr% in four straight starts. He’s struck out at least six in two of his last three. His seven strikeouts last time out were his most since his third start of the season though and he’s failed to surpass five innings in five of his last seven starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Stephen Strasburg is in one of the top spots on the board in San Diego, but has faced just 19 batters in a high A rehab start over the last four weeks and you can bet the Nationals are going to be incredibly cautious with him.
Julio Teheran has a 22.9 K% over his last eight starts (10.5 SwStr%), but has not stopped allowing all the hard contact (35.8%) in the air (40.3 GB%), which has led to nine HRs over that span. He’s allowed 28 HRs this year, tied for fifth most in the majors.
Jose Berrios has just a 15.6 K% (7.6 SwStr%) over his last eight starts. The Diamondbacks strike out a lot, which is the only reason he’s even this high.
Chad Bettis has tonight’s worst overall matchup, despite a high strikeout spot.
Brandon Woodruff is in Colorado.
C.C. Sabathia hasn’t been terrible, but the Red Sox have tough peripherals against lefties (6.4 K-BB%).
JC Ramirez is facing a hot offense with very little swing and miss in his game recently.
Rafael Montero has a league average SwStr% with a board low 83.9 mph aEV. The problem continues to be an 11.1 BB%. It looked like he had that under control for a while and his last start against the Yankees was a quality one (6 IP – 2 ER – 2 BB – 6 K – 24 BF), but he has walked three or more in two of his last four starts and has allowed a HR in five straight starts. In fact, eight of his 10 HRs allowed this year have come over the last month.
Kendall Graveman is in Houston with a 6.9 SwStr%.
Robert Stephenson is missing bats adequately, but his 11.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the slate.
Martin Perez is facing a White Sox lineup that may have some young talent in a terrible environment. Oh, and he’s not very good either.
Ty Blach has the top spot on the board and quality contact management keeps his spot in the rotation, but a non-existent strikeout rate really crushes any daily fantasy value.
Vance Worley
Travis Wood
Derek Holland is still making major league starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.3% | Road | 16.9% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 17.0% |
Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.7% | 9.8% | Road | 22.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.0% | Road | 18.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.1% | 7.0% | Home | 16.2% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 0.0% |
Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.9% | 8.8% | Home | 17.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 12.8% |
Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.3% | 4.8% | Home | 30.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 5.5% |
Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.8% | Home | 24.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.0% | 9.0% | Road | 14.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 22.2% |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.8% | 7.0% | Road | 23.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 4.4% |
Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.7% | Home | 22.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 11.6% |
Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 18.5% | 6.9% | Home | 17.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.3% | 7.8% | Road | 17.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 9.3% |
Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.7% | Road | 20.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.3% | Home | 21.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.9% | Home | 23.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 10.2% |
Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.2% | Home | 20.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 11.5% |
Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.3% | 6.1% | Road | 12.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 3.9% |
Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.4% | 7.3% | Home | 22.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 5.3% |
Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.3% | 8.4% | Home | 13.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 4.0% |
Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 6.1% | Home | 18.0% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 13.0% |
Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.3% | Road | 20.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 6.3% |
Nick Tepesch | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 11.1% | 7.4% | Road | 15.8% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 8.2% |
Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 22.0% | 12.4% | Home | 20.3% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.4% |
Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 19.6% | 12.8% | Road | 17.0% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 12.5% |
Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 6.7% | Road | 29.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | ||
Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 20.2% | 9.8% | Home | 16.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 11.1% |
Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.9% | 9.1% | Road | 23.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 4.6% |
Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.9% | 5.6% | Home | 13.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 6.9% | 6.9% |
Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.4% | 8.8% | Road | 14.2% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 10.4% |
Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 24.0% | 5.7% | Road | 23.8% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rays | Home | 26.0% | 9.4% | LH | 26.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.3% |
Rockies | Home | 21.3% | 8.3% | RH | 22.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 12.7% |
Red Sox | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | LH | 17.3% | 10.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.4% |
Brewers | Road | 25.3% | 8.5% | RH | 25.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 28.0% | 8.5% |
Cardinals | Road | 21.7% | 8.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.1% |
Yankees | Road | 22.4% | 9.2% | LH | 23.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.8% |
Athletics | Road | 25.0% | 9.1% | RH | 24.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.8% | 5.4% |
Rangers | Home | 22.0% | 9.7% | LH | 25.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 14.7% |
Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 8.9% | LH | 18.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.2% |
Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 7.2% | RH | 20.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 5.8% |
Indians | Road | 18.6% | 9.4% | LH | 17.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 10.0% |
Orioles | Home | 21.7% | 7.2% | RH | 21.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 4.6% |
Giants | Home | 18.8% | 7.1% | RH | 19.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.9% |
Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.6% | RH | 23.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 29.8% | 9.4% |
Blue Jays | Road | 21.0% | 9.4% | LH | 21.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.1% |
Reds | Road | 20.4% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.5% | 13.5% |
Astros | Home | 16.6% | 7.7% | RH | 17.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.9% | 7.1% |
Angels | Road | 20.4% | 8.6% | RH | 19.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.9% |
White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 6.0% | LH | 22.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.4% |
Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.9% | RH | 22.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 14.0% | 12.4% |
Pirates | Home | 17.8% | 9.1% | RH | 18.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.8% |
Cubs | Home | 22.0% | 9.9% | RH | 22.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.0% | 9.0% |
Marlins | Road | 20.3% | 6.6% | RH | 20.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 13.3% | 8.9% |
Braves | Home | 19.6% | 7.1% | RH | 19.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.6% |
Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.4% | RH | 25.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.3% |
Nationals | Road | 21.0% | 8.6% | LH | 22.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 28.4% | 8.4% |
Royals | Home | 19.0% | 6.7% | RH | 20.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 10.1% |
Phillies | Road | 22.7% | 7.5% | LH | 20.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.6% |
Mets | Home | 20.4% | 8.3% | RH | 19.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.9% | 7.5% |
Twins | Home | 21.8% | 10.0% | RH | 22.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.6% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 2017 | 30.7% | 14.6% | 8.8% | Road | 32.3% | 15.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 18.8% | 19.3% |
Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Years | 24.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 2017 | 24.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% | Road | 15.8% | 0.0% | -10.5% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.0% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 2017 | 30.7% | 15.6% | 8.7% | Road | 26.1% | 10.7% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 100.0% | 25.0% |
Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% | Home | 30.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.9% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 2017 | 32.8% | 8.4% | 15.0% | Home | 32.8% | 11.1% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 10.0% | 13.8% |
Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 2017 | 28.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | Home | 31.4% | 17.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2017 | 28.2% | 10.3% | 19.2% | Home | 24.9% | 11.1% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 7.1% | 21.2% |
Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 35.2% | 14.6% | 18.3% | 2017 | 38.1% | 17.6% | 19.6% | Road | 35.9% | 16.6% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 7.7% | 39.3% |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 35.7% | 18.1% | 17.8% | 2017 | 35.1% | 18.2% | 16.5% | Road | 35.7% | 9.8% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 7.7% | 19.4% |
Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 33.8% | 13.4% | 16.9% | 2017 | 37.1% | 16.6% | 22.2% | Home | 36.8% | 14.0% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 5.3% | 25.0% |
Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 2017 | 31.9% | 10.6% | 13.6% | Home | 31.7% | 9.5% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 51.5% | 30.0% | 36.3% |
JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.6% | 15.8% | 14.5% | 2017 | 35.8% | 15.7% | 19.2% | Road | 34.6% | 16.2% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 15.4% | 23.8% |
Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2017 | 32.8% | 9.4% | 18.4% | Road | 33.5% | 11.2% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 13.9% |
Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2017 | 27.4% | 10.4% | 6.6% | Home | 27.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 23.1% | 32.2% |
Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 2017 | 32.2% | 14.1% | 14.5% | Home | 33.9% | 17.5% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% |
Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 2017 | 31.8% | 16.6% | 10.7% | Home | 32.5% | 13.8% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 7.1% | 28.2% |
Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.0% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 2017 | 32.5% | 11.9% | 14.5% | Road | 31.5% | 14.6% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 17.5% |
Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.6% | 15.7% | 13.3% | 2017 | 34.0% | 14.7% | 15.8% | Home | 31.2% | 15.1% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 13.0% | 15.4% |
Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 2017 | 34.7% | 14.0% | 20.1% | Home | 31.2% | 12.4% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 27.4% | 23.8% | 14.5% |
Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.1% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 2017 | 29.7% | 8.5% | 12.3% | Home | 33.3% | 8.7% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.4% | 6.9% | Road | 28.2% | 12.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 7.7% | -7.6% |
Nick Tepesch | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 42.2% | 20.0% | 25.0% | 2017 | 45.8% | 21.7% | 27.0% | Road | 31.3% | 14.3% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 20.0% | 23.1% |
Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 26.8% | 15.1% | 8.3% | 2017 | 25.6% | 13.3% | 6.9% | Home | 23.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 25.0% | -7.7% |
Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 38.1% | 19.2% | 22.9% | 2017 | 38.3% | 19.6% | 25.0% | Road | 36.5% | 23.4% | 25.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.8% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 2017 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 6.6% | Road | 23.9% | 7.0% | 1.0% | L14 Days | |||
Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 31.1% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 2017 | 28.5% | 11.0% | 8.7% | Home | 31.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 20.0% | 14.3% |
Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 2017 | 35.3% | 16.7% | 21.0% | Road | 33.4% | 10.5% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 22.7% | 16.0% |
Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 31.3% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 2017 | 31.5% | 8.3% | 12.7% | Home | 30.2% | 4.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.5% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 2017 | 38.9% | 6.8% | 22.7% | Road | 34.5% | 15.2% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 2017 | 35.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% | Road | 28.0% | 15.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 11.1% | 17.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rays | Home | 36.7% | 14.6% | 18.6% | LH | 33.2% | 12.2% | 11.5% | L7Days | 32.0% | 6.6% | 9.3% |
Rockies | Home | 33.0% | 17.0% | 14.0% | RH | 30.4% | 13.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 33.5% | 17.9% | 13.8% |
Red Sox | Home | 34.7% | 10.5% | 17.0% | LH | 31.4% | 10.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 33.5% | 18.8% | 16.7% |
Brewers | Road | 31.1% | 17.6% | 12.8% | RH | 34.3% | 19.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 41.4% | 30.2% | 25.9% |
Cardinals | Road | 32.1% | 13.3% | 14.7% | RH | 31.5% | 13.0% | 12.9% | L7Days | 35.8% | 15.1% | 19.6% |
Yankees | Road | 30.8% | 12.1% | 12.0% | LH | 28.7% | 12.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.2% | 19.7% | 4.9% |
Athletics | Road | 34.8% | 12.3% | 16.5% | RH | 33.6% | 14.8% | 17.6% | L7Days | 30.8% | 18.3% | 13.5% |
Rangers | Home | 36.7% | 18.1% | 19.1% | LH | 30.7% | 14.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 37.4% | 25.5% | 23.4% |
Tigers | Home | 45.2% | 13.6% | 31.5% | LH | 39.5% | 17.2% | 23.9% | L7Days | 39.1% | 15.6% | 26.5% |
Mariners | Road | 31.8% | 11.6% | 13.9% | RH | 30.6% | 12.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 33.9% | 10.2% | 18.7% |
Indians | Road | 34.8% | 12.7% | 18.4% | LH | 31.5% | 12.7% | 13.4% | L7Days | 35.9% | 18.8% | 19.2% |
Orioles | Home | 31.2% | 16.7% | 11.2% | RH | 32.4% | 15.7% | 12.2% | L7Days | 38.6% | 16.7% | 22.7% |
Giants | Home | 25.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | RH | 28.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
Diamondbacks | Road | 30.8% | 13.8% | 10.7% | RH | 35.0% | 15.0% | 17.7% | L7Days | 32.5% | 14.8% | 16.3% |
Blue Jays | Road | 31.2% | 14.5% | 11.4% | LH | 30.1% | 14.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 30.6% | 13.8% | 11.8% |
Reds | Road | 30.3% | 14.4% | 10.4% | RH | 29.7% | 14.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.4% | 20.0% | 7.1% |
Astros | Home | 30.9% | 15.5% | 13.2% | RH | 33.3% | 15.6% | 15.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 9.0% | 15.3% |
Angels | Road | 32.5% | 11.9% | 12.9% | RH | 31.2% | 13.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 33.3% | 19.2% | 9.8% |
White Sox | Road | 30.9% | 14.3% | 13.1% | LH | 29.0% | 14.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 28.7% | 23.5% | 8.9% |
Dodgers | Road | 34.9% | 14.8% | 19.2% | RH | 36.1% | 15.0% | 20.7% | L7Days | 37.0% | 9.8% | 22.9% |
Pirates | Home | 29.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | RH | 30.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 31.9% | 9.8% | 12.6% |
Cubs | Home | 32.2% | 17.5% | 14.9% | RH | 31.5% | 15.6% | 13.8% | L7Days | 35.9% | 22.2% | 18.2% |
Marlins | Road | 29.5% | 14.3% | 9.0% | RH | 31.6% | 14.8% | 11.5% | L7Days | 29.2% | 13.0% | 6.4% |
Braves | Home | 29.3% | 11.8% | 9.7% | RH | 30.9% | 11.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 12.9% | 11.7% |
Padres | Home | 29.3% | 12.5% | 7.1% | RH | 29.8% | 14.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 11.7% | 7.9% |
Nationals | Road | 31.2% | 15.6% | 13.1% | LH | 32.0% | 16.2% | 13.7% | L7Days | 33.7% | 16.7% | 19.6% |
Royals | Home | 30.3% | 10.9% | 9.7% | RH | 31.5% | 12.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
Phillies | Road | 30.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | LH | 28.5% | 13.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 26.2% | 9.1% | 4.9% |
Mets | Home | 33.4% | 11.4% | 14.4% | RH | 34.6% | 13.6% | 17.2% | L7Days | 28.9% | 15.5% | 9.0% |
Twins | Home | 34.3% | 12.8% | 17.9% | RH | 33.7% | 13.3% | 17.4% | L7Days | 38.2% | 23.2% | 28.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ariel Miranda | SEA | 20.4% | 10.8% | 1.89 | 27.2% | 14.6% | 1.86 |
Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 15.7% | 11.8% | 1.33 | 15.7% | 11.8% | 1.33 |
CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.4% | 8.8% | 2.09 | 17.1% | 10.1% | 1.69 |
Chad Bettis | COL | 7.7% | 6.7% | 1.15 | 7.7% | 6.7% | 1.15 |
Chad Kuhl | PIT | 19.7% | 10.0% | 1.97 | 21.0% | 7.8% | 2.69 |
Chris Sale | BOS | 36.9% | 15.2% | 2.43 | 38.8% | 11.3% | 3.43 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 23.7% | 12.8% | 1.85 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 1.85 |
Derek Holland | CHW | 16.7% | 7.3% | 2.29 | 9.5% | 5.4% | 1.76 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 23.2% | 11.9% | 1.95 | 27.8% | 12.0% | 2.32 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 19.8% | 11.1% | 1.78 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 1.69 |
Jason Vargas | KAN | 18.1% | 10.1% | 1.79 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 1.62 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 17.6% | 8.9% | 1.98 | 13.7% | 5.2% | 2.63 |
Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.5% | 8.7% | 2.36 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.45 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.27 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 2.06 |
Jose Quintana | CHC | 25.0% | 8.3% | 3.01 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.77 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.2% | 9.2% | 1.98 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.07 |
Kendall Graveman | OAK | 16.1% | 6.9% | 2.33 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.98 |
Kevin Gausman | BAL | 21.2% | 10.8% | 1.96 | 28.0% | 14.3% | 1.96 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 14.4% | 7.5% | 1.92 | 11.8% | 8.1% | 1.46 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.1% | 9.8% | 1.74 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 1.16 |
Michael Wacha | STL | 22.8% | 9.8% | 2.33 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 2.31 |
Nick Tepesch | TOR | 9.7% | 6.0% | 1.62 | 8.2% | 6.8% | 1.21 |
Rafael Montero | NYM | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.18 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 2.06 |
Robert Stephenson | CIN | 20.7% | 11.0% | 1.88 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 1.92 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 28.1% | 12.7% | 2.21 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 3.39 |
Travis Wood | SDG | 17.7% | 6.7% | 2.64 | 22.8% | 7.3% | 3.12 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | 26.4% | 8.9% | 2.97 | 28.2% | 10.5% | 2.69 |
Ty Blach | SFO | 11.4% | 6.5% | 1.75 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.26 |
Vance Worley | MIA | 15.7% | 5.5% | 2.85 | 11.2% | 5.9% | 1.90 |
Zack Greinke | ARI | 28.4% | 13.0% | 2.18 | 27.7% | 11.5% | 2.41 |
Chris Sale had a season low 7.5 SwStr% three starts ago. The start before that it was 10.4%, which was a season low at that point. He’s been above 12% in every other start this season.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.75 | 4.84 | 0.09 | 5.26 | 0.51 | 5.43 | 0.68 | 5.01 | 0.26 | 6.41 | 4.14 | -2.27 | 4.8 | -1.61 | 5.95 | -0.46 |
Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 1.5 | 5.35 | 3.85 | 5.54 | 4.04 | 4.39 | 2.89 | 3.55 | 2.05 | 1.5 | 5.35 | 3.85 | 5.54 | 4.04 | 4.39 | 2.89 |
CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.05 | 4.64 | 0.59 | 4.38 | 0.33 | 4.59 | 0.54 | 4.74 | 0.69 | 6.38 | 4.41 | -1.97 | 4.02 | -2.36 | 6.3 | -0.08 |
Chad Bettis | COL | 0 | 4.71 | 4.71 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 0 | 4.71 | 4.71 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.57 | 2.57 |
Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.64 | 4.81 | 0.17 | 4.61 | -0.03 | 3.92 | -0.72 | 4.29 | -0.35 | 3.99 | 4.83 | 0.84 | 4.5 | 0.51 | 3.24 | -0.75 |
Chris Sale | BOS | 2.51 | 2.48 | -0.03 | 2.63 | 0.12 | 1.92 | -0.59 | 2.08 | -0.43 | 2.18 | 2.41 | 0.23 | 2.68 | 0.5 | 1.62 | -0.56 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.88 | 4.33 | -0.55 | 4.83 | -0.05 | 4.19 | -0.69 | 4.87 | -0.01 | 4.88 | 4.34 | -0.54 | 4.83 | -0.05 | 4.19 | -0.69 |
Derek Holland | CHW | 5.68 | 5.41 | -0.27 | 5.58 | -0.1 | 6.22 | 0.54 | 7.45 | 1.77 | 8.22 | 7.63 | -0.59 | 7.67 | -0.55 | 8.57 | 0.35 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.63 | 3.96 | 0.33 | 3.81 | 0.18 | 4.34 | 0.71 | 4.34 | 0.71 | 1.88 | 3.51 | 1.63 | 3.22 | 1.34 | 2.35 | 0.47 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.3 | 4.91 | 0.61 | 5.14 | 0.84 | 5.64 | 1.34 | 5.05 | 0.75 | 3.86 | 5.87 | 2.01 | 6.35 | 2.49 | 6.07 | 2.21 |
Jason Vargas | KAN | 3.45 | 4.73 | 1.28 | 4.83 | 1.38 | 4.31 | 0.86 | 4.10 | 0.65 | 5.06 | 4.85 | -0.21 | 4.66 | -0.4 | 5.43 | 0.37 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.26 | 4.63 | 0.37 | 4.47 | 0.21 | 4.71 | 0.45 | 4.46 | 0.20 | 3.31 | 5.55 | 2.24 | 5.18 | 1.87 | 4.73 | 1.42 |
Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.33 | 4.67 | 0.34 | 4.75 | 0.42 | 4.08 | -0.25 | 5.88 | 1.55 | 2.83 | 4.81 | 1.98 | 4.92 | 2.09 | 3.31 | 0.48 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | 4.27 | 4.38 | 0.11 | 4.68 | 0.41 | 4.18 | -0.09 | 4.22 | -0.05 | 5.88 | 5.09 | -0.79 | 5.34 | -0.54 | 4.64 | -1.24 |
Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.33 | 4.06 | -0.27 | 4.06 | -0.27 | 4.1 | -0.23 | 4.13 | -0.20 | 4.82 | 4.48 | -0.34 | 4.63 | -0.19 | 5.57 | 0.75 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.98 | 4.93 | -0.05 | 5.04 | 0.06 | 5.49 | 0.51 | 4.58 | -0.40 | 6.11 | 4.13 | -1.98 | 4.35 | -1.76 | 5.96 | -0.15 |
Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.7 | 4.66 | -0.04 | 4.42 | -0.28 | 4.18 | -0.52 | 4.00 | -0.70 | 7.53 | 4.66 | -2.87 | 4.12 | -3.41 | 3.28 | -4.25 |
Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.08 | 4.53 | -0.55 | 4.43 | -0.65 | 4.56 | -0.52 | 5.00 | -0.08 | 1.8 | 3.57 | 1.77 | 3.31 | 1.51 | 3.14 | 1.34 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 5.08 | 5.06 | -0.02 | 4.73 | -0.35 | 4.76 | -0.32 | 5.16 | 0.08 | 6.5 | 5.15 | -1.35 | 5.01 | -1.49 | 5.86 | -0.64 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.78 | 4.41 | 0.63 | 4.16 | 0.38 | 3.55 | -0.23 | 3.19 | -0.59 | 7.89 | 4.88 | -3.01 | 4.57 | -3.32 | 5.4 | -2.49 |
Michael Wacha | STL | 3.85 | 4.07 | 0.22 | 3.79 | -0.06 | 3.53 | -0.32 | 4.24 | 0.39 | 4.33 | 4.11 | -0.22 | 3.74 | -0.59 | 4.21 | -0.12 |
Nick Tepesch | TOR | 5.25 | 6.29 | 1.04 | 7.56 | 2.31 | 9.56 | 4.31 | 4.43 | -0.82 | 5.23 | 6.51 | 1.28 | 7.57 | 2.34 | 9.14 | 3.91 |
Rafael Montero | NYM | 5.8 | 4.55 | -1.25 | 4.67 | -1.13 | 4.61 | -1.19 | 5.43 | -0.37 | 6.15 | 4.55 | -1.6 | 4.73 | -1.42 | 6.71 | 0.56 |
Robert Stephenson | CIN | 6.64 | 5.11 | -1.53 | 5.43 | -1.21 | 6.35 | -0.29 | 6.06 | -0.58 | 4.67 | 5.8 | 1.13 | 5.63 | 0.96 | 6.02 | 1.35 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.25 | 3.56 | 0.31 | 3.52 | 0.27 | 3.14 | -0.11 | 2.87 | -0.38 | 0 | 8.44 | 8.44 | 7.43 | 7.43 | 5.64 | 5.64 |
Travis Wood | SDG | 6.46 | 5 | -1.46 | 5.33 | -1.13 | 4.86 | -1.6 | 6.88 | 0.42 | 5.96 | 4.43 | -1.53 | 4.63 | -1.33 | 4.93 | -1.03 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | 4.72 | 3.82 | -0.9 | 3.59 | -1.13 | 3.93 | -0.79 | 4.32 | -0.40 | 2.36 | 3.43 | 1.07 | 3.26 | 0.9 | 3.49 | 1.13 |
Ty Blach | SFO | 4.37 | 5.17 | 0.8 | 4.81 | 0.44 | 4.04 | -0.33 | 5.95 | 1.58 | 4.37 | 5.19 | 0.82 | 4.84 | 0.47 | 4.28 | -0.09 |
Vance Worley | MIA | 4.97 | 4.58 | -0.39 | 4.55 | -0.42 | 3.77 | -1.2 | 5.94 | 0.97 | 3.6 | 4.81 | 1.21 | 4.71 | 1.11 | 4.02 | 0.42 |
Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.01 | 3.29 | 0.28 | 3.19 | 0.18 | 3.21 | 0.2 | 2.58 | -0.43 | 3.43 | 3.48 | 0.05 | 3.4 | -0.03 | 3.37 | -0.06 |
Kevin Gausman has a .355 BABIP this year. He has a 93.9 LOB% over the last month. However, as mentioned above. Both his ERA and estimators are in line in the low to mid-threes over the last two months (11 starts).
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.231 | -0.048 | 31.8% | 0.156 | 14.6% | 83.6% | 86.9 | 9.00% | 33.20% | 398 |
Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 0.300 | 0.250 | -0.05 | 43.2% | 0.162 | 13.3% | 87.3% | 83.9 | 5.40% | 24.30% | 37 |
CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.274 | -0.016 | 50.5% | 0.202 | 5.6% | 87.7% | 85.9 | 4.50% | 31.30% | 313 |
Chad Bettis | COL | 0.302 | 0.250 | -0.052 | 52.2% | 0.217 | 16.7% | 96.9% | ||||
Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.317 | 0.009 | 43.8% | 0.224 | 6.7% | 86.0% | 87.2 | 5.00% | 36.40% | 360 |
Chris Sale | BOS | 0.305 | 0.286 | -0.019 | 36.1% | 0.205 | 12.4% | 78.8% | 86.2 | 5.00% | 29.40% | 377 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | 0.320 | 0.025 | 27.3% | 0.221 | 5.1% | 82.8% | 87.1 | 2.60% | 33.30% | 78 |
Derek Holland | CHW | 0.288 | 0.300 | 0.012 | 39.1% | 0.212 | 8.5% | 88.3% | 88.2 | 8.70% | 39.80% | 389 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.280 | 0.312 | 0.032 | 45.6% | 0.223 | 8.0% | 82.5% | 87 | 6.80% | 32.60% | 279 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.284 | 0.234 | -0.05 | 30.2% | 0.232 | 9.7% | 82.2% | 86.9 | 7.90% | 34.60% | 315 |
Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.299 | 0.289 | -0.01 | 38.8% | 0.202 | 10.0% | 83.3% | 86.7 | 5.00% | 30.50% | 420 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.294 | 0.009 | 50.2% | 0.189 | 7.5% | 87.6% | 87.2 | 6.60% | 34.60% | 439 |
Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.297 | 0.317 | 0.02 | 39.1% | 0.218 | 8.0% | 88.3% | 88 | 5.60% | 34.20% | 360 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.298 | 0.279 | -0.019 | 39.4% | 0.201 | 10.4% | 85.6% | 85.5 | 5.20% | 28.50% | 288 |
Jose Quintana | CHC | 0.283 | 0.290 | 0.007 | 43.5% | 0.19 | 10.6% | 88.7% | 87.5 | 6.20% | 36.60% | 385 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.273 | -0.019 | 39.0% | 0.209 | 6.5% | 87.3% | 86.1 | 7.20% | 30.60% | 431 |
Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.292 | 0.321 | 0.029 | 47.7% | 0.226 | 8.5% | 91.6% | 88.7 | 7.00% | 41.50% | 200 |
Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.355 | 0.04 | 42.1% | 0.23 | 8.7% | 84.1% | 87.7 | 8.80% | 34.40% | 433 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.333 | 0.044 | 45.6% | 0.251 | 6.2% | 90.5% | 87 | 6.10% | 34.90% | 444 |
Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.278 | -0.031 | 49.3% | 0.217 | 10.0% | 88.3% | 85.6 | 5.10% | 28.90% | 454 |
Michael Wacha | STL | 0.294 | 0.324 | 0.03 | 47.5% | 0.22 | 6.7% | 84.0% | 85.8 | 5.40% | 29.30% | 352 |
Nick Tepesch | TOR | 0.307 | 0.279 | -0.028 | 37.5% | 0.146 | 8.7% | 92.7% | 88.4 | 14.60% | 47.90% | 48 |
Rafael Montero | NYM | 0.320 | 0.373 | 0.053 | 46.9% | 0.175 | 9.3% | 83.3% | 83.9 | 5.50% | 27.90% | 219 |
Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.293 | 0.314 | 0.021 | 39.5% | 0.194 | 5.9% | 87.3% | 88.8 | 11.70% | 39.10% | 128 |
Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.293 | 0.283 | -0.01 | 44.4% | 0.197 | 9.7% | 84.1% | 87.5 | 7.20% | 31.30% | 319 |
Travis Wood | SDG | 0.307 | 0.343 | 0.036 | 37.7% | 0.221 | 8.5% | 88.6% | 87.7 | 5.30% | 34.80% | 207 |
Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.343 | 0.04 | 46.0% | 0.216 | 9.6% | 87.7% | 88.9 | 8.70% | 39.40% | 355 |
Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.297 | -0.02 | 45.9% | 0.22 | 7.6% | 89.6% | 85.3 | 4.10% | 31.30% | 467 |
Vance Worley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.348 | 0.055 | 50.9% | 0.224 | 9.1% | 93.1% | 87.9 | 3.00% | 37.70% | 167 |
Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.281 | -0.013 | 46.6% | 0.173 | 10.4% | 85.1% | 86.2 | 7.20% | 28.60% | 405 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Sale (1) is much more likely than not to generate double digit strikeouts through seven innings or more. That’s like, a floor expectation. NOBODY comes close to his upside or even his downside tonight. Let’s hope he fares better than his fellow Cy Young contenders last night.
Value Tier Two
Zack Greinke (2) is tonight’s second best pitcher behind Sale tonight, but far behind and Mr. Gausman is even giving him a run for that spot, but the swing and miss in his game is as good as it’s been all season over his last few starts. He’s not in a great spot in Minnesota tonight, but it has some strikeout potential.
Value Tier Three
Kevin Gausman (3) was on his way out of the league two months ago, but has completely turned his season around and has been pitching like an All Star recently. The cost is beginning to climb (just below $9K) and the Angels don’t strike out a lot, but it’s not a bad spot.
Collin McHugh is missing more bats than he ever has in his career through five starts and that shouldn’t stop against a strikeout prone Oakland offense, but there is a concern with the contact he’s allowing. He hasn’t allowed many barrels yet, but with so much contact in the air and no great tendency to stifle it, danger could be inevitable.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Trevor Bauer has been pitching better recently and is in a decent spot in Kansas City. The price tag above $9K is still a bit of a turn off though.
Jerad Eickhoff is unexciting. He’s struck out as many as eight twice this year, in back to back starts, but should be able to limit damage at an average cost in a fantastic run prevention spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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