Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, August 19th

Friday was supposed to be glorious, but then Scherzer gets scratched with just minutes to swap to Kluber if you were lucky enough to catch the update immediately. And if you were, well…he certainly outscored Scherzer, but left in the sixth with an injury of his own. Then Mr. Shields shuts down the Rangers in Texas.

It’s okay though, it’s the weekend now. We’ve got Sale tonight. We’ve got Greinke. Gets a little murky after that. Or maybe a lot murky.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher Team Team
Def
SIERA
L2Yrs
IP/GS
L2Yrs
GB%
L2Yrs
Park
Run
Hm/Rd
xFIP
SIERA
L14
Opp Opp
Hm/Rd
Opp L/R
wRC+
Opp L7
wRC+
Ariel Miranda SEA 7.4 4.82 5.62 31.6% 0.96 5.98 5.59 TAM 99 89 66
Brandon Woodruff MIL -1.6 5.35 6. 43.2% 1.39 3.88 5.35 COL 90 81 112
CC Sabathia NYY 2.4 4.51 5.72 49.6% 1.13 4.56 4.18 BOS 94 100 113
Chad Bettis COL -3.9 4.31 5.8 51.2% 1.39 3.77 4.71 MIL 94 93 131
Chad Kuhl PIT -2.4 4.69 5.03 44.0% 0.97 5.06 4.5 STL 96 100 138
Chris Sale BOS 5.4 2.97 6.97 39.6% 1.13 3.1 1.84 NYY 99 87 105
Collin McHugh HOU -5.5 3.98 5.74 40.6% 0.94 4.06 4.37 OAK 86 103 108
Derek Holland CHW -0.1 5.09 5.44 39.3% 1.11 5.58 7.49 TEX 109 83 152
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 2.8 4.01 5.39 45.4% 0.98 3.91 3.28 DET 114 124 135
Jake Odorizzi TAM -0.5 4.38 5.57 33.8% 0.96 4.5 6.52 SEA 95 103 131
Jason Vargas KAN 7.2 4.67 5.66 38.6% 1.06 4.83 4.72 CLE 102 103 126
JC Ramirez ANA 2 4.45 5.92 50.4% 1.02 4.33 5.5 BAL 104 99 150
Jerad Eickhoff PHI 2.2 4.19 5.87 39.8% 0.93 4.36 4.06 SFO 80 82 86
Jose Berrios MIN -0.2 4.75 5.07 38.9% 1.04 4.44 5.34 ARI 81 99 92
Jose Quintana CHC 3.2 3.97 6.24 42.7% 0.96 3.88 5.35 TOR 92 99 88
Julio Teheran ATL -1.8 4.35 6.06 38.8% 1 4.41 4.35 CIN 95 99 115
Kendall Graveman OAK -11.2 4.59 5.89 51.0% 0.94 4.7 4 HOU 122 127 87
Kevin Gausman BAL -5.1 4.04 5.71 43.9% 1.02 3.91 3.65 ANA 85 95 89
Martin Perez TEX 1.8 4.99 5.88 51.1% 1.11 4.66 5.02 CHW 92 103 117
Michael Fulmer DET 1.7 4.21 6.34 49.2% 0.98 4.08 6.53 LOS 103 109 120
Michael Wacha STL -1.5 4.32 5.47 46.6% 0.97 4.15 5.21 PIT 93 87 97
Nick Tepesch TOR -1.9 5.83 4. 34.4% 0.96 4.56 6.51 CHC 106 96 136
Rafael Montero NYM -1.6 4.73 4.77 44.6% 0.91 5.11 4.28 MIA 99 96 112
Robert Stephenson CIN 7.3 5.11 4.74 37.1% 1 6.22 2.99 ATL 85 86 91
Stephen Strasburg WAS 1 3.13 6.2 0.418 0.91 3.29 SDG 89 87 82
Travis Wood SDG -5.4 4.43 4.36 0.378 0.91 4.88 4.99 WAS 98 110 82
Trevor Bauer CLE 0.3 4.13 5.78 0.474 1.06 4.08 2.9 KAN 90 92 130
Ty Blach SFO -3 5.1 6.32 0.47 0.93 4.6 5.79 PHI 75 80 56
Vance Worley MIA 4.9 4.75 4.93 0.483 0.91 5.08 6.38 NYM 88 99 64
Zack Greinke ARI -5.4 3.65 6.4 0.468 1.04 3.46 3.58 MIN 103 100 149


Chris Sale has at least 11 strikeouts in six of his last eight and has struck out 25 of his last 55 batters. He has failed to reach seven innings in just 25% of his 24 starts this year. His 32.1 K-BB% leads the majors by more than two full points. That kind of number takes a lot of the sting out of Fenway. The Yankees have not been very good against LHP. In 22.2 innings against them this year, he’s struck out 35 of 87 batters (40.2%).

Collin McHugh has only started five games, but only dropped below a double digit SwStr% for the first time in his last one. His 12.8 SwStr% is third best on the board and would easily represent a career high. His 27.3 GB% is a little scary, but he’s allowed just 2.6% Barrels/BBE so far. Oakland has some power, but the 25% strikeout rate on the road and vs RHP is incredibly enticing.

Jerad Eickhoff has roughly league average peripherals (11.4 K-BB%), but too much hard contact (88 mph aEV) in the air (39.1 GB%). That’s not as much of a concern in one of the top matchups on the board (Giants 6.2 HR/FB at home, 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 3.5 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but his peripherals could take a hit.

Kevin Gausman is just one strong start away from dropping his ERA below five for the season. Over his last 11 starts, it’s actually not much above three (3.32) with matching estimators due to 29.3 K% with a 14.0 SwStr%. It basically all coincides with increased usage of his splitter. While the strikeouts have greatly improved, his hard hit rate still stands at one-third of batted balls over this stretch. The Angels don’t strike out a lot, but are a below average offense.

Trevor Bauer has struck out 21 of his last 59 batters with the most interesting part of it being a 12.2 SwStr%. He’s been striking out batters at a high clip all season, still without a SwStr rate to support that and an 88.9 mph aEV that’s highest on the board. The thing to do has been wait for it to all fall apart. The hard contact continues, although his last start was the first one in five tries with a hard hit rate above 30%. If he’s going to generate hard contact, Kansas City’s big outfield might be the place to do so. They don’t have much power in that park and rarely walk.

Zack Greinke has pitched at least two outs into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts with at least eight strikeouts in all four. His 28.4 K% and 13.0 SwStr% are behind only Sale today. The interesting thing is a 35.1 Hard% via Fangraphs and even 7.2% Barrels/BBE from Statcast, but just an 86.2 mph aEV and 28.6% 95+ mph EV. Minnesota is not actually a favorable spot. They have a 28.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week, but also a 26.4 K%.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)

Jason Vargas (.289 – 81.7% – 10.6) has had at least a league average SwStr% in four straight starts. He’s struck out at least six in two of his last three. His seven strikeouts last time out were his most since his third start of the season though and he’s failed to surpass five innings in five of his last seven starts.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Stephen Strasburg is in one of the top spots on the board in San Diego, but has faced just 19 batters in a high A rehab start over the last four weeks and you can bet the Nationals are going to be incredibly cautious with him.

Julio Teheran has a 22.9 K% over his last eight starts (10.5 SwStr%), but has not stopped allowing all the hard contact (35.8%) in the air (40.3 GB%), which has led to nine HRs over that span. He’s allowed 28 HRs this year, tied for fifth most in the majors.

Jose Berrios has just a 15.6 K% (7.6 SwStr%) over his last eight starts. The Diamondbacks strike out a lot, which is the only reason he’s even this high.

Chad Bettis has tonight’s worst overall matchup, despite a high strikeout spot.

Brandon Woodruff is in Colorado.

C.C. Sabathia hasn’t been terrible, but the Red Sox have tough peripherals against lefties (6.4 K-BB%).

JC Ramirez is facing a hot offense with very little swing and miss in his game recently.

Rafael Montero has a league average SwStr% with a board low 83.9 mph aEV. The problem continues to be an 11.1 BB%. It looked like he had that under control for a while and his last start against the Yankees was a quality one (6 IP – 2 ER – 2 BB – 6 K – 24 BF), but he has walked three or more in two of his last four starts and has allowed a HR in five straight starts. In fact, eight of his 10 HRs allowed this year have come over the last month.

Kendall Graveman is in Houston with a 6.9 SwStr%.

Robert Stephenson is missing bats adequately, but his 11.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the slate.

Martin Perez is facing a White Sox lineup that may have some young talent in a terrible environment. Oh, and he’s not very good either.

Ty Blach has the top spot on the board and quality contact management keeps his spot in the rotation, but a non-existent strikeout rate really crushes any daily fantasy value.

Vance Worley

Travis Wood

Derek Holland is still making major league starts.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher Team Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Ariel Miranda Mariners L2 Years 20.0% 8.3% Road 16.9% 9.5% L14 Days 25.5% 17.0%
Brandon Woodruff Brewers L2 Years 15.7% 9.8% Road 22.2% 7.4% L14 Days 15.7% 9.8%
CC Sabathia Yankees L2 Years 19.2% 9.0% Road 18.5% 9.7% L14 Days 18.8% 6.3%
Chad Bettis Rockies L2 Years 17.1% 7.0% Home 16.2% 4.8% L14 Days 7.7% 0.0%
Chad Kuhl Pirates L2 Years 18.9% 8.8% Home 17.0% 10.3% L14 Days 25.5% 12.8%
Chris Sale Red Sox L2 Years 30.3% 4.8% Home 30.2% 4.6% L14 Days 45.5% 5.5%
Collin McHugh Astros L2 Years 22.4% 6.8% Home 24.1% 6.5% L14 Days 22.5% 8.2%
Derek Holland White Sox L2 Years 16.0% 9.0% Road 14.7% 9.0% L14 Days 15.6% 22.2%
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers L2 Years 22.8% 7.0% Road 23.7% 7.5% L14 Days 28.3% 4.4%
Jake Odorizzi Rays L2 Years 21.2% 7.7% Home 22.1% 7.8% L14 Days 14.0% 11.6%
Jason Vargas Royals L2 Years 18.5% 6.9% Home 17.7% 7.3% L14 Days 20.0% 10.0%
JC Ramirez Angels L2 Years 17.3% 7.8% Road 17.7% 7.7% L14 Days 11.1% 9.3%
Jerad Eickhoff Phillies L2 Years 21.0% 6.7% Road 20.0% 6.5% L14 Days 22.0% 6.0%
Jose Berrios Twins L2 Years 19.6% 9.3% Home 21.8% 7.8% L14 Days 14.3% 7.1%
Jose Quintana Cubs L2 Years 22.8% 6.9% Home 23.8% 6.3% L14 Days 14.3% 10.2%
Julio Teheran Braves L2 Years 20.4% 7.2% Home 20.7% 7.4% L14 Days 26.9% 11.5%
Kendall Graveman Athletics L2 Years 14.3% 6.1% Road 12.9% 6.4% L14 Days 19.2% 3.9%
Kevin Gausman Orioles L2 Years 22.4% 7.3% Home 22.7% 7.2% L14 Days 26.3% 5.3%
Martin Perez Rangers L2 Years 13.3% 8.4% Home 13.7% 8.4% L14 Days 11.8% 4.0%
Michael Fulmer Tigers L2 Years 18.8% 6.1% Home 18.0% 4.8% L14 Days 8.7% 13.0%
Michael Wacha Cardinals L2 Years 20.1% 8.3% Road 20.0% 7.5% L14 Days 12.5% 6.3%
Nick Tepesch Blue Jays L2 Years 11.1% 7.4% Road 15.8% 0.0% L14 Days 8.2% 8.2%
Rafael Montero Mets L2 Years 22.0% 12.4% Home 20.3% 12.0% L14 Days 25.0% 11.4%
Robert Stephenson Reds L2 Years 19.6% 12.8% Road 17.0% 14.6% L14 Days 37.5% 12.5%
Stephen Strasburg Nationals L2 Years 30.6% 6.7% Road 29.5% 8.8% L14 Days
Travis Wood Padres L2 Years 20.2% 9.8% Home 16.7% 7.7% L14 Days 20.8% 11.1%
Trevor Bauer Indians L2 Years 22.9% 9.1% Road 23.2% 9.7% L14 Days 31.8% 4.6%
Ty Blach Giants L2 Years 11.9% 5.6% Home 13.5% 5.4% L14 Days 6.9% 6.9%
Vance Worley Marlins L2 Years 15.4% 8.8% Road 14.2% 9.0% L14 Days 6.3% 10.4%
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks L2 Years 24.0% 5.7% Road 23.8% 5.1% L14 Days 33.3% 11.8%

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Rays Home 26.0% 9.4% LH 26.4% 10.0% L7Days 23.2% 10.3%
Rockies Home 21.3% 8.3% RH 22.5% 7.8% L7Days 18.1% 12.7%
Red Sox Home 18.4% 9.4% LH 17.3% 10.9% L7Days 21.3% 10.4%
Brewers Road 25.3% 8.5% RH 25.7% 8.5% L7Days 28.0% 8.5%
Cardinals Road 21.7% 8.9% RH 21.7% 9.1% L7Days 19.2% 7.1%
Yankees Road 22.4% 9.2% LH 23.6% 10.2% L7Days 22.4% 8.8%
Athletics Road 25.0% 9.1% RH 24.9% 9.3% L7Days 23.8% 5.4%
Rangers Home 22.0% 9.7% LH 25.4% 8.0% L7Days 21.0% 14.7%
Tigers Home 19.4% 8.9% LH 18.4% 8.3% L7Days 18.9% 8.2%
Mariners Road 19.7% 7.2% RH 20.8% 7.4% L7Days 16.4% 5.8%
Indians Road 18.6% 9.4% LH 17.1% 10.2% L7Days 20.3% 10.0%
Orioles Home 21.7% 7.2% RH 21.6% 6.5% L7Days 20.7% 4.6%
Giants Home 18.8% 7.1% RH 19.3% 7.4% L7Days 17.4% 7.9%
Diamondbacks Road 24.4% 8.6% RH 23.5% 9.4% L7Days 29.8% 9.4%
Blue Jays Road 21.0% 9.4% LH 21.3% 10.3% L7Days 21.1% 8.1%
Reds Road 20.4% 8.6% RH 20.8% 9.3% L7Days 20.5% 13.5%
Astros Home 16.6% 7.7% RH 17.4% 8.0% L7Days 16.9% 7.1%
Angels Road 20.4% 8.6% RH 19.4% 7.8% L7Days 16.7% 8.9%
White Sox Road 21.7% 6.0% LH 22.1% 6.5% L7Days 18.3% 7.4%
Dodgers Road 22.4% 10.9% RH 22.3% 10.3% L7Days 14.0% 12.4%
Pirates Home 17.8% 9.1% RH 18.4% 8.4% L7Days 18.3% 9.8%
Cubs Home 22.0% 9.9% RH 22.2% 9.0% L7Days 26.0% 9.0%
Marlins Road 20.3% 6.6% RH 20.4% 7.6% L7Days 13.3% 8.9%
Braves Home 19.6% 7.1% RH 19.6% 7.0% L7Days 17.8% 7.6%
Padres Home 24.6% 8.4% RH 25.2% 7.6% L7Days 25.7% 8.3%
Nationals Road 21.0% 8.6% LH 22.2% 7.7% L7Days 28.4% 8.4%
Royals Home 19.0% 6.7% RH 20.3% 6.7% L7Days 17.3% 10.1%
Phillies Road 22.7% 7.5% LH 20.8% 8.0% L7Days 18.3% 7.6%
Mets Home 20.4% 8.3% RH 19.9% 8.8% L7Days 26.9% 7.5%
Twins Home 21.8% 10.0% RH 22.6% 9.6% L7Days 26.4% 7.1%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher Team Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Ariel Miranda Mariners L2 Years 32.6% 14.4% 12.0% 2017 30.7% 14.6% 8.8% Road 32.3% 15.6% 11.8% L14 Days 46.2% 18.8% 19.3%
Brandon Woodruff Brewers L2 Years 24.3% 6.7% 0.0% 2017 24.3% 6.7% 0.0% Road 15.8% 0.0% -10.5% L14 Days 24.3% 6.7% 0.0%
CC Sabathia Yankees L2 Years 27.0% 13.2% 3.9% 2017 30.7% 15.6% 8.7% Road 26.1% 10.7% 2.0% L14 Days 33.3% 100.0% 25.0%
Chad Bettis Rockies L2 Years 31.2% 12.2% 14.6% 2017 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% Home 30.0% 10.6% 10.5% L14 Days 33.3% 0.0% 25.0%
Chad Kuhl Pirates L2 Years 32.9% 8.6% 14.4% 2017 32.8% 8.4% 15.0% Home 32.8% 11.1% 15.8% L14 Days 31.0% 10.0% 13.8%
Chris Sale Red Sox L2 Years 30.5% 11.3% 13.5% 2017 28.1% 8.1% 10.3% Home 31.4% 17.0% 15.4% L14 Days 18.5% 0.0% 3.7%
Collin McHugh Astros L2 Years 29.1% 11.0% 9.3% 2017 28.2% 10.3% 19.2% Home 24.9% 11.1% 2.9% L14 Days 27.3% 7.1% 21.2%
Derek Holland White Sox L2 Years 35.2% 14.6% 18.3% 2017 38.1% 17.6% 19.6% Road 35.9% 16.6% 15.8% L14 Days 46.4% 7.7% 39.3%
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers L2 Years 35.7% 18.1% 17.8% 2017 35.1% 18.2% 16.5% Road 35.7% 9.8% 15.9% L14 Days 35.5% 7.7% 19.4%
Jake Odorizzi Rays L2 Years 33.8% 13.4% 16.9% 2017 37.1% 16.6% 22.2% Home 36.8% 14.0% 19.3% L14 Days 31.3% 5.3% 25.0%
Jason Vargas Royals L2 Years 32.0% 10.2% 13.9% 2017 31.9% 10.6% 13.6% Home 31.7% 9.5% 16.9% L14 Days 51.5% 30.0% 36.3%
JC Ramirez Angels L2 Years 32.6% 15.8% 14.5% 2017 35.8% 15.7% 19.2% Road 34.6% 16.2% 15.9% L14 Days 40.5% 15.4% 23.8%
Jerad Eickhoff Phillies L2 Years 32.2% 11.3% 13.9% 2017 32.8% 9.4% 18.4% Road 33.5% 11.2% 17.0% L14 Days 33.3% 0.0% 13.9%
Jose Berrios Twins L2 Years 29.8% 12.7% 10.0% 2017 27.4% 10.4% 6.6% Home 27.8% 10.8% 9.1% L14 Days 38.7% 23.1% 32.2%
Jose Quintana Cubs L2 Years 32.2% 11.0% 14.1% 2017 32.2% 14.1% 14.5% Home 33.9% 17.5% 16.2% L14 Days 22.9% 8.3% 2.9%
Julio Teheran Braves L2 Years 31.5% 12.9% 12.0% 2017 31.8% 16.6% 10.7% Home 32.5% 13.8% 12.1% L14 Days 43.8% 7.1% 28.2%
Kendall Graveman Athletics L2 Years 30.0% 12.3% 12.7% 2017 32.5% 11.9% 14.5% Road 31.5% 14.6% 14.1% L14 Days 30.0% 0.0% 17.5%
Kevin Gausman Orioles L2 Years 31.6% 15.7% 13.3% 2017 34.0% 14.7% 15.8% Home 31.2% 15.1% 12.3% L14 Days 32.7% 13.0% 15.4%
Martin Perez Rangers L2 Years 31.6% 11.5% 15.8% 2017 34.7% 14.0% 20.1% Home 31.2% 12.4% 15.3% L14 Days 27.4% 23.8% 14.5%
Michael Fulmer Tigers L2 Years 30.1% 9.9% 11.8% 2017 29.7% 8.5% 12.3% Home 33.3% 8.7% 15.5% L14 Days 27.8% 33.3% 11.1%
Michael Wacha Cardinals L2 Years 29.2% 13.1% 9.3% 2017 27.6% 11.4% 6.9% Road 28.2% 12.8% 9.5% L14 Days 18.0% 7.7% -7.6%
Nick Tepesch Blue Jays L2 Years 42.2% 20.0% 25.0% 2017 45.8% 21.7% 27.0% Road 31.3% 14.3% 18.8% L14 Days 43.6% 20.0% 23.1%
Rafael Montero Mets L2 Years 26.8% 15.1% 8.3% 2017 25.6% 13.3% 6.9% Home 23.8% 8.9% 5.7% L14 Days 15.4% 25.0% -7.7%
Robert Stephenson Reds L2 Years 38.1% 19.2% 22.9% 2017 38.3% 19.6% 25.0% Road 36.5% 23.4% 25.2% L14 Days 33.3% 0.0% 33.3%
Stephen Strasburg Nationals L2 Years 26.8% 11.0% 5.5% 2017 26.7% 10.6% 6.6% Road 23.9% 7.0% 1.0% L14 Days
Travis Wood Padres L2 Years 31.1% 10.2% 11.1% 2017 28.5% 11.0% 8.7% Home 31.3% 12.0% 10.3% L14 Days 32.7% 20.0% 14.3%
Trevor Bauer Indians L2 Years 32.8% 12.3% 15.2% 2017 35.3% 16.7% 21.0% Road 33.4% 10.5% 13.9% L14 Days 32.1% 22.7% 16.0%
Ty Blach Giants L2 Years 31.3% 8.1% 11.8% 2017 31.5% 8.3% 12.7% Home 30.2% 4.3% 10.1% L14 Days 30.0% 14.3% 18.0%
Vance Worley Marlins L2 Years 33.5% 10.0% 17.2% 2017 38.9% 6.8% 22.7% Road 34.5% 15.2% 21.5% L14 Days 29.0% 0.0% 5.3%
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks L2 Years 32.5% 13.5% 12.0% 2017 35.1% 13.9% 14.1% Road 28.0% 15.2% 6.9% L14 Days 32.1% 11.1% 17.8%

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Rays Home 36.7% 14.6% 18.6% LH 33.2% 12.2% 11.5% L7Days 32.0% 6.6% 9.3%
Rockies Home 33.0% 17.0% 14.0% RH 30.4% 13.3% 10.3% L7Days 33.5% 17.9% 13.8%
Red Sox Home 34.7% 10.5% 17.0% LH 31.4% 10.8% 8.4% L7Days 33.5% 18.8% 16.7%
Brewers Road 31.1% 17.6% 12.8% RH 34.3% 19.3% 15.7% L7Days 41.4% 30.2% 25.9%
Cardinals Road 32.1% 13.3% 14.7% RH 31.5% 13.0% 12.9% L7Days 35.8% 15.1% 19.6%
Yankees Road 30.8% 12.1% 12.0% LH 28.7% 12.0% 7.2% L7Days 27.2% 19.7% 4.9%
Athletics Road 34.8% 12.3% 16.5% RH 33.6% 14.8% 17.6% L7Days 30.8% 18.3% 13.5%
Rangers Home 36.7% 18.1% 19.1% LH 30.7% 14.2% 10.0% L7Days 37.4% 25.5% 23.4%
Tigers Home 45.2% 13.6% 31.5% LH 39.5% 17.2% 23.9% L7Days 39.1% 15.6% 26.5%
Mariners Road 31.8% 11.6% 13.9% RH 30.6% 12.4% 12.5% L7Days 33.9% 10.2% 18.7%
Indians Road 34.8% 12.7% 18.4% LH 31.5% 12.7% 13.4% L7Days 35.9% 18.8% 19.2%
Orioles Home 31.2% 16.7% 11.2% RH 32.4% 15.7% 12.2% L7Days 38.6% 16.7% 22.7%
Giants Home 25.6% 6.2% 4.8% RH 28.2% 8.9% 6.9% L7Days 28.6% 7.8% 3.5%
Diamondbacks Road 30.8% 13.8% 10.7% RH 35.0% 15.0% 17.7% L7Days 32.5% 14.8% 16.3%
Blue Jays Road 31.2% 14.5% 11.4% LH 30.1% 14.2% 11.7% L7Days 30.6% 13.8% 11.8%
Reds Road 30.3% 14.4% 10.4% RH 29.7% 14.8% 9.1% L7Days 29.4% 20.0% 7.1%
Astros Home 30.9% 15.5% 13.2% RH 33.3% 15.6% 15.9% L7Days 33.3% 9.0% 15.3%
Angels Road 32.5% 11.9% 12.9% RH 31.2% 13.4% 11.4% L7Days 33.3% 19.2% 9.8%
White Sox Road 30.9% 14.3% 13.1% LH 29.0% 14.2% 8.7% L7Days 28.7% 23.5% 8.9%
Dodgers Road 34.9% 14.8% 19.2% RH 36.1% 15.0% 20.7% L7Days 37.0% 9.8% 22.9%
Pirates Home 29.6% 9.6% 8.1% RH 30.0% 10.2% 9.0% L7Days 31.9% 9.8% 12.6%
Cubs Home 32.2% 17.5% 14.9% RH 31.5% 15.6% 13.8% L7Days 35.9% 22.2% 18.2%
Marlins Road 29.5% 14.3% 9.0% RH 31.6% 14.8% 11.5% L7Days 29.2% 13.0% 6.4%
Braves Home 29.3% 11.8% 9.7% RH 30.9% 11.3% 12.4% L7Days 32.0% 12.9% 11.7%
Padres Home 29.3% 12.5% 7.1% RH 29.8% 14.0% 7.2% L7Days 31.1% 11.7% 7.9%
Nationals Road 31.2% 15.6% 13.1% LH 32.0% 16.2% 13.7% L7Days 33.7% 16.7% 19.6%
Royals Home 30.3% 10.9% 9.7% RH 31.5% 12.3% 12.1% L7Days 34.3% 16.7% 18.6%
Phillies Road 30.2% 9.9% 9.4% LH 28.5% 13.4% 7.3% L7Days 26.2% 9.1% 4.9%
Mets Home 33.4% 11.4% 14.4% RH 34.6% 13.6% 17.2% L7Days 28.9% 15.5% 9.0%
Twins Home 34.3% 12.8% 17.9% RH 33.7% 13.3% 17.4% L7Days 38.2% 23.2% 28.0%

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher Team K% Season SwStr% Season K%/SwStr% K% L30 Days SwStr% L30 Days K%/SwStr%
Ariel Miranda SEA 20.4% 10.8% 1.89 27.2% 14.6% 1.86
Brandon Woodruff MIL 15.7% 11.8% 1.33 15.7% 11.8% 1.33
CC Sabathia NYY 18.4% 8.8% 2.09 17.1% 10.1% 1.69
Chad Bettis COL 7.7% 6.7% 1.15 7.7% 6.7% 1.15
Chad Kuhl PIT 19.7% 10.0% 1.97 21.0% 7.8% 2.69
Chris Sale BOS 36.9% 15.2% 2.43 38.8% 11.3% 3.43
Collin McHugh HOU 23.7% 12.8% 1.85 23.7% 12.8% 1.85
Derek Holland CHW 16.7% 7.3% 2.29 9.5% 5.4% 1.76
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 23.2% 11.9% 1.95 27.8% 12.0% 2.32
Jake Odorizzi TAM 19.8% 11.1% 1.78 17.7% 10.5% 1.69
Jason Vargas KAN 18.1% 10.1% 1.79 17.0% 10.5% 1.62
JC Ramirez ANA 17.6% 8.9% 1.98 13.7% 5.2% 2.63
Jerad Eickhoff PHI 20.5% 8.7% 2.36 20.3% 8.3% 2.45
Jose Berrios MIN 21.1% 9.3% 2.27 15.9% 7.7% 2.06
Jose Quintana CHC 25.0% 8.3% 3.01 21.5% 5.7% 3.77
Julio Teheran ATL 18.2% 9.2% 1.98 23.6% 11.4% 2.07
Kendall Graveman OAK 16.1% 6.9% 2.33 14.9% 5.0% 2.98
Kevin Gausman BAL 21.2% 10.8% 1.96 28.0% 14.3% 1.96
Martin Perez TEX 14.4% 7.5% 1.92 11.8% 8.1% 1.46
Michael Fulmer DET 17.1% 9.8% 1.74 14.7% 12.7% 1.16
Michael Wacha STL 22.8% 9.8% 2.33 19.6% 8.5% 2.31
Nick Tepesch TOR 9.7% 6.0% 1.62 8.2% 6.8% 1.21
Rafael Montero NYM 22.2% 10.2% 2.18 22.0% 10.7% 2.06
Robert Stephenson CIN 20.7% 11.0% 1.88 18.2% 9.5% 1.92
Stephen Strasburg WAS 28.1% 12.7% 2.21 20.0% 5.9% 3.39
Travis Wood SDG 17.7% 6.7% 2.64 22.8% 7.3% 3.12
Trevor Bauer CLE 26.4% 8.9% 2.97 28.2% 10.5% 2.69
Ty Blach SFO 11.4% 6.5% 1.75 12.2% 5.4% 2.26
Vance Worley MIA 15.7% 5.5% 2.85 11.2% 5.9% 1.90
Zack Greinke ARI 28.4% 13.0% 2.18 27.7% 11.5% 2.41


Chris Sale had a season low 7.5 SwStr% three starts ago. The start before that it was 10.4%, which was a season low at that point. He’s been above 12% in every other start this season.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher Team Season
ERA
Season
SIERA
DIFF Season
xFIP
DIFF Season
FIP
DIFF Season
DRA
DIFF ERA
L30
SIERA
L30
DIFF xFIP
L30
DIFF FIP
L30
DIFF
Ariel Miranda SEA 4.75 4.84 0.09 5.26 0.51 5.43 0.68 5.01 0.26 6.41 4.14 -2.27 4.8 -1.61 5.95 -0.46
Brandon Woodruff MIL 1.5 5.35 3.85 5.54 4.04 4.39 2.89 3.55 2.05 1.5 5.35 3.85 5.54 4.04 4.39 2.89
CC Sabathia NYY 4.05 4.64 0.59 4.38 0.33 4.59 0.54 4.74 0.69 6.38 4.41 -1.97 4.02 -2.36 6.3 -0.08
Chad Bettis COL 0 4.71 4.71 4.1 4.1 2.57 2.57 2.02 2.02 0 4.71 4.71 4.1 4.1 2.57 2.57
Chad Kuhl PIT 4.64 4.81 0.17 4.61 -0.03 3.92 -0.72 4.29 -0.35 3.99 4.83 0.84 4.5 0.51 3.24 -0.75
Chris Sale BOS 2.51 2.48 -0.03 2.63 0.12 1.92 -0.59 2.08 -0.43 2.18 2.41 0.23 2.68 0.5 1.62 -0.56
Collin McHugh HOU 4.88 4.33 -0.55 4.83 -0.05 4.19 -0.69 4.87 -0.01 4.88 4.34 -0.54 4.83 -0.05 4.19 -0.69
Derek Holland CHW 5.68 5.41 -0.27 5.58 -0.1 6.22 0.54 7.45 1.77 8.22 7.63 -0.59 7.67 -0.55 8.57 0.35
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 3.63 3.96 0.33 3.81 0.18 4.34 0.71 4.34 0.71 1.88 3.51 1.63 3.22 1.34 2.35 0.47
Jake Odorizzi TAM 4.3 4.91 0.61 5.14 0.84 5.64 1.34 5.05 0.75 3.86 5.87 2.01 6.35 2.49 6.07 2.21
Jason Vargas KAN 3.45 4.73 1.28 4.83 1.38 4.31 0.86 4.10 0.65 5.06 4.85 -0.21 4.66 -0.4 5.43 0.37
JC Ramirez ANA 4.26 4.63 0.37 4.47 0.21 4.71 0.45 4.46 0.20 3.31 5.55 2.24 5.18 1.87 4.73 1.42
Jerad Eickhoff PHI 4.33 4.67 0.34 4.75 0.42 4.08 -0.25 5.88 1.55 2.83 4.81 1.98 4.92 2.09 3.31 0.48
Jose Berrios MIN 4.27 4.38 0.11 4.68 0.41 4.18 -0.09 4.22 -0.05 5.88 5.09 -0.79 5.34 -0.54 4.64 -1.24
Jose Quintana CHC 4.33 4.06 -0.27 4.06 -0.27 4.1 -0.23 4.13 -0.20 4.82 4.48 -0.34 4.63 -0.19 5.57 0.75
Julio Teheran ATL 4.98 4.93 -0.05 5.04 0.06 5.49 0.51 4.58 -0.40 6.11 4.13 -1.98 4.35 -1.76 5.96 -0.15
Kendall Graveman OAK 4.7 4.66 -0.04 4.42 -0.28 4.18 -0.52 4.00 -0.70 7.53 4.66 -2.87 4.12 -3.41 3.28 -4.25
Kevin Gausman BAL 5.08 4.53 -0.55 4.43 -0.65 4.56 -0.52 5.00 -0.08 1.8 3.57 1.77 3.31 1.51 3.14 1.34
Martin Perez TEX 5.08 5.06 -0.02 4.73 -0.35 4.76 -0.32 5.16 0.08 6.5 5.15 -1.35 5.01 -1.49 5.86 -0.64
Michael Fulmer DET 3.78 4.41 0.63 4.16 0.38 3.55 -0.23 3.19 -0.59 7.89 4.88 -3.01 4.57 -3.32 5.4 -2.49
Michael Wacha STL 3.85 4.07 0.22 3.79 -0.06 3.53 -0.32 4.24 0.39 4.33 4.11 -0.22 3.74 -0.59 4.21 -0.12
Nick Tepesch TOR 5.25 6.29 1.04 7.56 2.31 9.56 4.31 4.43 -0.82 5.23 6.51 1.28 7.57 2.34 9.14 3.91
Rafael Montero NYM 5.8 4.55 -1.25 4.67 -1.13 4.61 -1.19 5.43 -0.37 6.15 4.55 -1.6 4.73 -1.42 6.71 0.56
Robert Stephenson CIN 6.64 5.11 -1.53 5.43 -1.21 6.35 -0.29 6.06 -0.58 4.67 5.8 1.13 5.63 0.96 6.02 1.35
Stephen Strasburg WAS 3.25 3.56 0.31 3.52 0.27 3.14 -0.11 2.87 -0.38 0 8.44 8.44 7.43 7.43 5.64 5.64
Travis Wood SDG 6.46 5 -1.46 5.33 -1.13 4.86 -1.6 6.88 0.42 5.96 4.43 -1.53 4.63 -1.33 4.93 -1.03
Trevor Bauer CLE 4.72 3.82 -0.9 3.59 -1.13 3.93 -0.79 4.32 -0.40 2.36 3.43 1.07 3.26 0.9 3.49 1.13
Ty Blach SFO 4.37 5.17 0.8 4.81 0.44 4.04 -0.33 5.95 1.58 4.37 5.19 0.82 4.84 0.47 4.28 -0.09
Vance Worley MIA 4.97 4.58 -0.39 4.55 -0.42 3.77 -1.2 5.94 0.97 3.6 4.81 1.21 4.71 1.11 4.02 0.42
Zack Greinke ARI 3.01 3.29 0.28 3.19 0.18 3.21 0.2 2.58 -0.43 3.43 3.48 0.05 3.4 -0.03 3.37 -0.06


Kevin Gausman has a .355 BABIP this year. He has a 93.9 LOB% over the last month. However, as mentioned above. Both his ERA and estimators are in line in the low to mid-threes over the last two months (11 starts).

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher Team Team BABIP Pitcher BABIP Diff GB% Pitcher LD% Pitcher IFFB% Pitcher Zcontact Exit
Velocity
Barrels
BBE
95+ MPH
EV
BBE
Ariel Miranda SEA 0.279 0.231 -0.048 31.8% 0.156 14.6% 83.6% 86.9 9.00% 33.20% 398
Brandon Woodruff MIL 0.300 0.250 -0.05 43.2% 0.162 13.3% 87.3% 83.9 5.40% 24.30% 37
CC Sabathia NYY 0.290 0.274 -0.016 50.5% 0.202 5.6% 87.7% 85.9 4.50% 31.30% 313
Chad Bettis COL 0.302 0.250 -0.052 52.2% 0.217 16.7% 96.9%
Chad Kuhl PIT 0.308 0.317 0.009 43.8% 0.224 6.7% 86.0% 87.2 5.00% 36.40% 360
Chris Sale BOS 0.305 0.286 -0.019 36.1% 0.205 12.4% 78.8% 86.2 5.00% 29.40% 377
Collin McHugh HOU 0.295 0.320 0.025 27.3% 0.221 5.1% 82.8% 87.1 2.60% 33.30% 78
Derek Holland CHW 0.288 0.300 0.012 39.1% 0.212 8.5% 88.3% 88.2 8.70% 39.80% 389
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 0.280 0.312 0.032 45.6% 0.223 8.0% 82.5% 87 6.80% 32.60% 279
Jake Odorizzi TAM 0.284 0.234 -0.05 30.2% 0.232 9.7% 82.2% 86.9 7.90% 34.60% 315
Jason Vargas KAN 0.299 0.289 -0.01 38.8% 0.202 10.0% 83.3% 86.7 5.00% 30.50% 420
JC Ramirez ANA 0.285 0.294 0.009 50.2% 0.189 7.5% 87.6% 87.2 6.60% 34.60% 439
Jerad Eickhoff PHI 0.297 0.317 0.02 39.1% 0.218 8.0% 88.3% 88 5.60% 34.20% 360
Jose Berrios MIN 0.298 0.279 -0.019 39.4% 0.201 10.4% 85.6% 85.5 5.20% 28.50% 288
Jose Quintana CHC 0.283 0.290 0.007 43.5% 0.19 10.6% 88.7% 87.5 6.20% 36.60% 385
Julio Teheran ATL 0.292 0.273 -0.019 39.0% 0.209 6.5% 87.3% 86.1 7.20% 30.60% 431
Kendall Graveman OAK 0.292 0.321 0.029 47.7% 0.226 8.5% 91.6% 88.7 7.00% 41.50% 200
Kevin Gausman BAL 0.315 0.355 0.04 42.1% 0.23 8.7% 84.1% 87.7 8.80% 34.40% 433
Martin Perez TEX 0.289 0.333 0.044 45.6% 0.251 6.2% 90.5% 87 6.10% 34.90% 444
Michael Fulmer DET 0.309 0.278 -0.031 49.3% 0.217 10.0% 88.3% 85.6 5.10% 28.90% 454
Michael Wacha STL 0.294 0.324 0.03 47.5% 0.22 6.7% 84.0% 85.8 5.40% 29.30% 352
Nick Tepesch TOR 0.307 0.279 -0.028 37.5% 0.146 8.7% 92.7% 88.4 14.60% 47.90% 48
Rafael Montero NYM 0.320 0.373 0.053 46.9% 0.175 9.3% 83.3% 83.9 5.50% 27.90% 219
Robert Stephenson CIN 0.293 0.314 0.021 39.5% 0.194 5.9% 87.3% 88.8 11.70% 39.10% 128
Stephen Strasburg WAS 0.293 0.283 -0.01 44.4% 0.197 9.7% 84.1% 87.5 7.20% 31.30% 319
Travis Wood SDG 0.307 0.343 0.036 37.7% 0.221 8.5% 88.6% 87.7 5.30% 34.80% 207
Trevor Bauer CLE 0.303 0.343 0.04 46.0% 0.216 9.6% 87.7% 88.9 8.70% 39.40% 355
Ty Blach SFO 0.317 0.297 -0.02 45.9% 0.22 7.6% 89.6% 85.3 4.10% 31.30% 467
Vance Worley MIA 0.293 0.348 0.055 50.9% 0.224 9.1% 93.1% 87.9 3.00% 37.70% 167
Zack Greinke ARI 0.294 0.281 -0.013 46.6% 0.173 10.4% 85.1% 86.2 7.20% 28.60% 405

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Article Image

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Chris Sale (1) is much more likely than not to generate double digit strikeouts through seven innings or more. That’s like, a floor expectation. NOBODY comes close to his upside or even his downside tonight. Let’s hope he fares better than his fellow Cy Young contenders last night.

Value Tier Two

Zack Greinke (2) is tonight’s second best pitcher behind Sale tonight, but far behind and Mr. Gausman is even giving him a run for that spot, but the swing and miss in his game is as good as it’s been all season over his last few starts. He’s not in a great spot in Minnesota tonight, but it has some strikeout potential.

Value Tier Three

Kevin Gausman (3) was on his way out of the league two months ago, but has completely turned his season around and has been pitching like an All Star recently. The cost is beginning to climb (just below $9K) and the Angels don’t strike out a lot, but it’s not a bad spot.

Collin McHugh is missing more bats than he ever has in his career through five starts and that shouldn’t stop against a strikeout prone Oakland offense, but there is a concern with the contact he’s allowing. He hasn’t allowed many barrels yet, but with so much contact in the air and no great tendency to stifle it, danger could be inevitable.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Trevor Bauer has been pitching better recently and is in a decent spot in Kansas City. The price tag above $9K is still a bit of a turn off though.

Jerad Eickhoff is unexciting. He’s struck out as many as eight twice this year, in back to back starts, but should be able to limit damage at an average cost in a fantastic run prevention spot.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.