AFL DraftKings Picks: Friday, July 10th DFS Strategy
Round 6 of the AFL continues on Friday with two powerhouse Melbourne-based teams battling it out on neutral territory in Sydney. Collingwood and Hawthorn are looking to get back on the winners list and keep in touch for the finals. The slate gets underway at 19:50 Australian Eastern Standard Time (05:50 ET Friday). Neutral venues are the theme of the round after the shutdown of Metropolitan Melbourne earlier this week.
We continue to educate and teach the game of Aussie Rules DFS throughout the season so do drop in the Discord Chat at any time and ask questions. However you are new to the game then our resources are below to get you started:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 6 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 6 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
Also, be sure to catch some fantastic multimedia from Daily Fantasy Rankings every week. Below, you’ll find the AFL DK Down Under Show in which Smatho and Big Hef break down this match between the Pies and the Hawks. Make sure you check it out and subscribe on YouTube so you don’t miss an episode!
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Hawthorn (+120) v Collingwood (-147)
Total Points Over/Under – 120.5
Spread – 6.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (2030 AEST 07-09-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
Partly cloudy day in Sydney, into a cool evening. No issues here in the forecast.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
There has been quite a few changes to each team especially with both teams naming two debuts for each team. We will discuss each of these players in the targets below.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $20,000 USD pool for a $11 USD entry. The contest is a 64 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups. .
Quirky Fact – Hawthorn has never played Collingwood in the history of the AFL Premiership outside of Melbourne. However these two teams played a pre-season fixture in Hawthorn’s 2nd home in Launceston, Tasmania in 2015.
Lineup Building tip: The salaries on DraftKings reflect how these two teams fantasy output have fared in 2020. Collingwood possesses the ball from the defenders linking to the midfielders in a high possession game plan. The Hawks have given up 89 points per game to their opposition’s top 3 scoring midfielders this season, which is the 6th highest mark in the league. This opens up the opportunity to stack the Magpies mids and link up with their defenders on this slate.
Players of Interest
Ben McEvoy – R – $4,500
If you watch the video in this article, the lads discussed at length the Ruck choice with the might of Brodie Grundy going Jono Ceglar and Ben McEvoy. However, former number 1 ruckman Ben McEvoy attended 46% of the centre bounce restarts and was sent forward and kicked two goals in Round 5. Now your guess is good as mine, but you would assume the Hawks will deploy both ruckmen against Grundy in this match. McEvoy does have a low floor but his upside is there at his salary.
Rookie Players
So we have two new players from Hawthorn named and Collingwood have two rookies starting as well. Instead of all four being highlighted let me touch on each of them. Will Kelly $2,800 was originally recruited to the Magpies as a defender but has turned into a Key Forward. His fantasy scores have been poor in the minor league so he is a pass. Atu Bosenavulagi $2,700 is also a key forward who averaged 46 fantasy points in the VFL in 2019. For Hawthorn Josh Morris $2,800 was drafted by the Hawks last year and is a speedy medium forward player (averaged 54 in the SANFL 2’s in 2019). Will Day $2,500 is a rebounding defender and was drafted with the 13th pick in last year’s draft. Day’s U/18 numbers are the most impressive numbers (Ave 77.3 in the SANFL 2’s 2019) out of these four and at min price is the one to look at.
Collingwood Defenders
Jesse in our feature preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site is very strong on Collingwood defenders, especially key defenders against the Hawks. Jordan Roughead $3,000 and Darcy Moore $4,700 play the key-defence role and if we believe the season trends, they are far too cheap for their potential. However link defenders such as Matthew Scharenberg $3,900, Jack Crisp $6,200 and Brayden Maynard $6,600 are also on the radar. Stacking this position is the way to go.
Adam Treloar – D – $7,800
Treloar returned from his hamstring injury with a bang last week posting a massive 105 points against the Bombers. He was right back to his pig self and I absolutely love linking him with other Magpies in game stacks as he plays both inside and outside. The Hawks give up a lot of uncontested possessions and they are also conceding the 6th most points to opponents top scoring midfielders.
For further analysis of the Thursday Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Friday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL