AFL DraftKings Picks: Friday, July 17 DFS Strategy
Round 7 of the AFL continues on Friday with two Melbourne-based teams battling it out on neutral territory on the Gold Coast. Essendon and the Western Bulldogs are evenly matched teams yet the Bombers have jumped to a great start to the year. The slate gets underway at 19:50 Australian Eastern Standard Time (05:50 ET Friday).
We continue to educate and teach the game of Aussie Rules DFS throughout the season so do drop in the Discord Chat at any time and ask questions. However you are new to the game then our resources are below to get you started:
— AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 7 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 7 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
Also, be sure to catch some fantastic multimedia from Daily Fantasy Rankings every week. Below, you’ll find the AFL DK Down Under Show in which Smatho and Big Hef break down this match between the Bombers and the Bulldogs. Make sure you check it out and subscribe on YouTube so you don’t miss an episode!
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Essendon (-104) v Western Bulldogs (-118)
Total Points Over/Under – 122.5
Spread – 1.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (2030 AEST 07-16-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
Partly cloudy day on the Gold Coast, into a cool evening. No issues here in the forecast.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
Dylan Shiel has been suspended for his bump with Mason Redman replacing Shiel. Ned Cahill plays his 1st game for the Bombers. The Dogs have made 4 changes with the younger players being pushed out of the side.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $20,000 USD pool for a $12 USD entry. The contest is a 58 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups. .
Lineup Building tip: Despite sitting in the top four currently the Bombers have leaked fantasy points through the midfield. This is especially true for premium midfielders where they have given up 90 points per game to the top three scorers at the position. The Bulldogs aren’t too far behind at 85 points per game, but after last week when the Bulldogs got thrashed they still posted very good fantasy scores.
Players of Interest
Orazio Fantasia – F – $3,700
Fantasia played across half back last week and finally found himself a touch of the football for the first time in over a year. Racking up 19 disposals en route to 64 fantasy points he is a lock and load play at this price. Especially considering it is an elite matchup for defenders. If you are looking for a reason to fade there was some talk this week out of Essendon that it is not necessarily a permanent move and Mason Redman returned to the team this week.
Bailey Smith – M – $6,900
Smith is the easiest Bulldog midfielder to fit in at his price point after his partners in crime got a massive price boost after last week’s fantasy fill up against the Blues (note the Bulldogs still lost). Smith is one of the few players for the Bulldogs who looks to be locked into the midfield every single week and he has topped 90 points three times in five games this season. Going against Essendon is a top matchup for midfielders and I will be starting my builds with Smith due to his reasonable price point.
Darcy Parish – M – $5,000
Parish moved into the midfield finally last week with 12 centre bounce attendances (only behind Ash McGrath if you don’t count the ruckman). He rescinded with a 72 fantasy point performance and has historically shown that if he gets a role in the middle he can pile up the points. With Dylan Shiel out due to suspension I would expect Parish to be kept in the middle and he pretty much becomes a lock and load play.
Tim English – R – DK $7,000
The hype was huge on this kid coming into the season and then he got totally obliterated by Grundy in round 1 before coming back slow from the COVID-19 break in round 2. Since then he has flicked the switch and started living up the fantasy potential we have been drooling over for seasons. Averaging 90 points per game over the last four (108FP equivalent in full timed games) he has absolutely dominated his opponents around the grounds. Phillips has been conceding the fourth highest mark in the league to rucks this season, so if English can break even in the ruck contests a ceiling game could be on the cards.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL