AFL DraftKings Picks: Friday, July 3rd DFS Strategy
Round 5 continues on Friday Night in Australia with the traditional clash between Collingwood and Essendon. These two teams play on Anzac Day (Australian’s version of Veterans Day) each year but obviously the pandemic stopped that. Instead they are on prime time Friday with the match scheduled for 19:50 Australian Eastern Standard Time (05:50 ET Friday). Both teams suffered heartbreaking losses in Round 4 and both teams have had their fair share of changes this week.
DraftKings’ main GPPs and mini max contests have had some serious overlay on each slate so far, so we need to strike while the iron is hot! If this is your first time playing Daily Fantasy Aussie Rules, make sure you check out content from our partners in Australia Daily Fantasy Rankings to get you up to speed on AFL DFS.
If this is your first look at AFL DFS or need to advance your skills then make sure you are aware of the game itself in our How to Articles:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 5 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 5 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
Also, be sure to catch some fantastic multimedia from Daily Fantasy Rankings every week. Below, you’ll find the AFL DK Down Under Show in which Smatho and Big Hef break down this match between the Pies and the Bombers.
The lads talk about wet weather footy so make sure you check it out and subscribe on YouTube so you don’t miss an episode!
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Collingwood (-250) v Essendon (+205)
Total Points Over/Under – 114.5
Spread – 15.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (1830 AEST 07-02-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
At 24 hours before the game, Melbourne’s weather forecast is a typical winter’s day. Very high chance (95%) of showers with possible hail in the afternoon. The MCG surface has excellent drainage but this will affect the total scoring of points in this match.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
It has been a big week for news drama with star midfielder Steele Sidebottom suspended by the league for 4 weeks for breaching multiple league protocols. Star midfielder for the Bombers Zach Merrett has also been suspended for one match for striking. The Bombers have brought in backup Ruckman Andrew Phillips into the side.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $50,000 USD pool for a $11 USD entry. The contest is a 150 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups.
Quirky Fact – Steele Sidebottom’s suspension means he will miss his 2nd game of footy since Round 3 2016. Round 23 in 2019 was the last game he missed where fellow midfielders Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar all scored 100+. Chris Mayne (110) and Jamie Elliott (113) also scored 100+ in the longer quarter format.
Lineup Building tip: If you watch the video in the article above, Hef discusses how wet weather can affect fantasy scores. If the forecast does come into fruition then I would not be heavy on key tall forwards due to the wet ball. However, Ruckman will go to many stoppages and the tackle count for both teams increase.
Players of Interest
Brodie Grundy – R – $9,000
Just like last Friday, Grundy gets another peach matchup against Bombers 2nd string ruckman in Andrew Phillips. Whilst Phillips does come at a significant discount ($4,400) these conditions are ideal for Grundy. Grundy scores against the Bombers in the last 2 seasons = 123, 149, 110 and 122. A must in cash.
Devon Smith – M/F – $6,200
Like the Magpies, the Bombers are also short in the middle playing without Dyson Heppell and now losing Zach Merrett to a suspension. This should open up further opportunities, especially on the wing. Last week against the Blues, it looked like Smith picked up extra midfield time with 6 centre bounce attendances and he took full advantage posting an 86-point game.
Tom Phillips – M – $4,700
Playing a significant amount of time forward this season he has managed only one solid score all season (a 101-point game against Richmond). But with Steele Sidebottom out of the side, the wing position has opened up and will relish the opportunity as the logical option for the Pies. Bombers have been giving up a fair amount of points to midfielders and I am very keen here.
Matt Scharenberg – D – $3,100
The like for like replacement for Jeremy Howe for the Pies, Scharenberg is the chalk of the slate. While Maynard and Crisp will take more responsibility down back, Scharenberg will link with fellow Pies backs and should make value quite easily. Career has been curtailed by injuries but will take his opportunity here.
Adam Treloar – M – $7,000
Treloar is first up after an injury lay off and I’ll be a bit cautious clicking on his name numerous times at his tempting price. It would be easy to roster Treloar in without Sidebottom in the side and assume the fantasy scoring continues but Treloar plays the same role as Taylor Adams and Scott Pendlebury. However the Bombers midfield is lacking and Treloar will be popular in Pies midfield stacks.
For further analysis of the Friday Showdown Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Friday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL