AFL DraftKings Picks: Saturday, July 4th DFS Strategy
It’s Saturday, Round 5 in the AFL and we have four games on the slate for DraftKings contests. The league has announced that all games from Round 6 onwards are now outside Victoria, so this Saturday slate is the last in Melbourne for quite some time. The slate gets underway at 13:45 Australian Eastern Standard Time (23:45 ET Friday). The late game between the Lions and the Power is a fan favourite on this slate, however we have multiple angles to attack here.
DraftKings’ main GPPs and mini max contests continue to have serious overlay on each slate so we need to strike while the iron is hot! If this is your first time playing Daily Fantasy Aussie Rules, make sure you check out content from our partners in Australia Daily Fantasy Rankings to get you up to speed on AFL DFS.
If this is your first look at AFL DFS or need to advance your skills then make sure you are aware of the game itself in our How to Articles:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 5 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 5 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
West Coast (-172) v Sydney (+140)
Total Points Over/Under – 127.5
Spread – 9.5
Geelong (-333) v Gold Coast (+260)
Total Points Over/Under – 123.5
Spread – 20.5
Western Bulldogs (-147) v North Melbourne (+120)
Total Points Over/Under – 124.5
Spread – 6.5
Brisbane (-116) v Port Adelaide (-105)
Total Points Over/Under – 130.5
Spread – 1.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (1830 AEST 07-03-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
West Coast are playing at their Gold Coast hub which is showing Sunny conditions. It is a coolish day at Geelong with the forecast for minimal showers. The Dogs and Kangaroos will play at Marvel under the roof and it looks like a nice night in Brisbane for the Lions and Power.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
Not too much fantasy news to speak of on the slate, however Sydney did lose their number 1 and number 2 ruckman to injury. So Hayden McLean gets the number 1 role with Aliir Aliir to back up at stoppages. Tom Stewart is a big out for the Cats in defense, his output should be shared amongst fellow defenders. Stefan Martin returns for the Lions in the Ruck and Ben Cunnington returns to the midfield for the Kangaroos.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $40,000 USD pool for a $11 USD entry. The contest is a 128 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups.
Quirky Fact – Gary Ablett plays his 350th game on Saturday and is regarded to be one of the best players for Geelong/Gold Coast but also is a fantasy legend. In 349 games, Ablett averages a shade over 96 fantasy points per game over his career. Whilst the numbers have dipped since 2019/2020 he is still as ever fantasy relevant.
Lineup Building tip: Geelong are the target today as teams tend to struggle at their home ground (although Carlton had a say in that). Geelong are celebrating milestone matches for Joel Selwood (300 Games) and Gary Ablett (350 Games) and Gold Coast have never won at GMHBA stadium. Gold Coast also give up the 4th most fantasy points to Forwards so far through 2020.
Players of Interest
Hayden McLean – R – $3,700
Sydney in Round 4 deployed 2 and half Ruckman against the Bulldogs and now they are left with the half. McLean has just the single Hit Out to his name in 2020 but is now the man Ruckman for the Swans after injuries to Naismith and Sinclair. However McLean scored 87 + 88 Fantasy points in his appearances in 2019 and is an exceptional value play in this position. If you are looking to pivot, Todd Goldstein is up against Tim English and Jarrod Witts is up against Darcy Fort. Both can overcome those high price tags.
Marcus Bontempelli – M – $6,300
Bontempelli was a risk last week against the Swans with the fears of the tag ruining his night. It only took 5 minutes to bust that theory! 98 Fantasy Points last week and we still get the ‘Bont’ at an affordable $6,300. With Lachie Hunter and Josh Dunkley still out for the Dogs and tag from North, Bontempelli is in an excellent spot under the Marvel roof.
Geelong Stacks
Apart from one player I really like in particular, it is hard to pinpoint a particular Cats player here. If you are looking to make a full Cats stack then you must start with Patrick Dangerfield at $6,900. 93 Fantasy Points against Melbourne and was $7,600 last round! Brandan Parfitt, Gryan Miers and Gary Ablett are all Forward eligible and Zach Tuohy will anchor the Cats defense. Plenty of options here and I haven’t even mentioned Mitch Duncan, Cam Guthrie and Joel Selwood!
Shaun Atley – D – $4,500
Tough spot for defenders on this slate with a clear gap between Jake Lloyd’s salary and the remainder of the pool, so I have dug deep into the data. As you can see in the chart below, the Dogs are giving up points to the opposition defense. Jasper Pittard at $5,200 is a fine play but I have taken the discount and look to get Atley at low ownership. Atley has scored two fantasy scores over 60 and looked great linking up with Pittard in last week’s loss to Hawthorn. I do have a concern with Robbie Tarrant returning to the side however. Tough spot in general.
Lin Jong – M – $3,700
I was going to mention Jong with Bontempelli but he deserves his own spot. Jong was injured in his 47 fantasy point effort against GWS with only 68% TOG in Round 3. Whilst I am not expecting a huge score, the allure of a midfielder under $4K that is playing in a short handed midfield has huge appeal.
For further analysis of the Saturday Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Friday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL