AFL DraftKings Picks: Saturday, June 27th DFS Strategy
Always the best slate to play AFL Fantasy is the four-game Saturday slate on Saturdays! The action goes all day and we have the earlier lock time of 13:45 Australian Eastern Standard Time (23:45 ET Friday). Competition leaders Port Adelaide get the slate underway along with the traditional clash between Essendon and Carlton on the schedule. Let’s take a look with markets, history, teams and DraftKings fantasy thoughts.
If this is your first look at AFL DFS make sure you are aware of the game itself in our How to Articles:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 4 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 4 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Port Adelaide (-161) v West Coast (+135)
Total Over/Under – 129.5
Spread – 8.5
St. Kilda (+190) v Richmond (-238)
Total Over/Under – 129.5
Spread – 15.5
Gold Coast (-149) v Fremantle (+120)
Total Over/Under – 125.5
Spread – 6.5
Essendon (-135) v Carlton (+110)
Total Over/Under – 128.5
Spread – 4.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (1830 AEST 06-26-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
Two games on the Gold Coast today and they are expecting a possible shower with light winds. Should be ok for the day game but it has been “greasy” conditions at night as of late.
The Saints and Tigers game will be played underneath the Marvel roof while the Bombers and Blues will play at the huge MCG on a chilly night in Melbourne.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
The Eagles have made four changes after losing the last two games but none of these Eagles changes are much of a fantasy significance. The Tigers welcome back superstar Dustin Martin and dropped 1st choice ruckman Ivan Soldo. Toby Nankervis comes in and is an instant Ruck play. There is a debut for Caleb Serong for Fremantle who was a high draft pick in last year’s draft.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $50,000 USD pool for a $10 USD entry. The contest is a 150 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to grow the fantasy pools.
Quirky Fact – This is the first time since June 2017 that the Gold Coast Suns are favorites with Vegas to win their match for the second week in a row. The Suns in the past 5 seasons are 25-89 overall.
Lineup Building tip: West Coast has not settled in their Gold Coast hub at all with the weather conditions ruining their high possession game plan. This could change however as they are the first game of the slate on Saturday and should thrive on the better surface. Port Adelaide however have restricted midfield scoring to the tightest in the league. Whilst the Eagles are the worst in restricting fantasy scoring to midfielders in the league through 3 rounds.
Players of Interest
Toby Nankervis – R – $4,300
A surprised omission post Covid, Nankervis gets his ruck role back after Ivan Soldo burnt so many fantasy owners last week. His last three seasons have seen averages of 78, 89 and 87, and this round he will have the ruck duties to himself, which means we should see somewhere in the vicinity of 100% game time.
Caleb Serong – D – $2,800
Rookie Caleb Serong is making his career debut for the Dockers. He was drafted with the 8th pick and had massive wraps throughout the preseason turning several heads. In their two preseason games he was able to rack up points quickly despite limited game time (46 in 56% game time, and 17 in 20% game time), which indicates he should be able to pay off his low price point.
Sam Docherty – D – $7,500
Docherty has returned to Carlton after two serious knee injuries and got right back to fantasy consistency. Posting 3 scores of 95, 88 and 97 so far you can almost guarantee a 90+ game and we loves the spaces of the MCG. Carlton are up and about after their win at Geelong and will be coming out all guns blazing in this rivalry matchup against the Dons. It is a solid matchup for defenders as Essendon have conceded the 6th most points to top 3 scoring back this season.
Elliot Yeo – M – $6,800
This will be probably the lowest price Elliot Yeo will be on DraftKings all season long (unless he is injured, which can occur the way things are going at West Coast). The tackling machine has given away a remarkable 10 Free Kicks away since the resumption which is killing his fantasy output. Any player who has 100+ upside at under $7K needs to be considered. The matchup is a poor one but the Eagles are going to be hungry for this one.
Jake Carlisle – D – DK $3,800
Points chasing? Maybe… If you pay attention to the winning lineups last Saturday you would have noticed that cheaper Saints Defenders worked wonders last weekend. Carlisle notched up a huge 88 points with 16 Kicks and 9 Marks. The Saints follow up from the Magpies with another positive matchup for defenders against Richmond so we can certainly go back to the well. I like linking either one of these guys to other St Kilda defenders as well such as Nick Coffield or Hunter Clark.
For further analysis of the Friday Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Friday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
Available to Premium subscribers, DraftKings DFS Projections are available in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL