AFL DraftKings Picks: Sunday, July 12th DFS Strategy
Three games remain on Sunday in Round 6 of the AFL with many teams trying to keep their finals chances alive. The slate gets underway at 13:05 Australian Eastern Standard Time (23:05 ET Saturday). The Power and the Giants is the feature match of the day but all three games look good on paper.
DraftKings main GPPs contests continue to have serious overlay on each slate so we need to strike while the iron is hot! If this is your first time playing Daily Fantasy Aussie Rules, make sure you check out content from our partners in Australia Daily Fantasy Rankings to get you up to speed on AFL DFS.
If this is your first look at AFL DFS or need to advance your skills then make sure you are aware of the game itself in our How to Articles:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 6 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 6 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Port Adelaide (-104) v GWS Giants (-118)
Total Points Over/Under – 124.5
Spread – 1.5
Richmond (-130) v Sydney (+105)
Total Points Over/Under – 122.5
Spread – 3.5
Carlton (+150) v Western Bulldogs (-185)
Total Points Over/Under – 115.5
Spread – 13.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (1830 AEST 07-11-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
All three games are in the Brisbane/Gold Coast area which is expecting Very high (90%) chance of showers and patchy rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Hence the totals are on the low side.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
The Power have dropped midfielder Tom Rockliff due to form while Callan Ward returns to the Giants in an already stacked midfield. Richmond are really thin on the ground with 5 key players that are not in the side the back bone for the Tigers. Bulldogs Lachie Hunter returns to the Bulldogs midfield after a 4 week suspension from his wild night earlier this year.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $20,000 USD pool for a $15 USD entry. The contest is a 47 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups. .
Quirky Fact – First time in the history of the league that all three fixtures have been played in Queensland on the same day with Metricon Stadium doing double duty.
Lineup Building tip: These are good quality teams on Sunday, however Richmond is very depleted and fielding a pretty inexperienced side. The Tigers down back do let premium players go 80+ so Sydney premium players are in play here. However the rest of the slate is tough with teams restricting fantasy scoring across the field.
Players of Interest
Aliir Aliir – D – $4,000
Aliir Aliir took the lead ruck for the majority of the game last week, while Hayden McLean played up forward. He was in 85% of the center bounces and while he managed just 31 fantasy points and 5 hit outs it was against one of the toughest opponents in the league to notch up scores against (Nic Naitanui). This week, however, he draws the easiest matchup in the league in Richmond, the weather is to be wet and gives you a value option with the flexibility to play as a defender that should bring a very safe floor in this game.
Dylan Stephens – M – $3,000
Stephens is making his debut as pick number 5 for the Swans in the most recent draft. He was a prolific ball winner in under ages and had significant experience playing at senior level with 13 matches last year in the SANFL. Stephens showed capability to find the football averaging over 18 touches en route to 78 fantasy points per game. With both inside and outside capabilities he projects as an elite play on this slate for the minimum price (expect him to be very highly owned).
Patrick Cripps – M – $7,500
I love the conditions and the matchup for Cripps on this slate. Wet and slippery, leading to a contested game style will suit his attributes completely. In addition, the Bulldogs have been one of the better teams to target through the midfield this season.
Marcus Bontempelli – M – $5,700
There is some threat here that Ed Curnow goes to ‘the Bont’ who has been a fan favourite of the taggers this season. Last week most of us were caught totally unaware as North Melbourne brought out the tag and totally squashed Bontempelli to the tune of just 48 points. Curnow doesn’t typically apply a hard tag and I expect a bounce back game on this slate. His upside is 100+ and is very attractively priced.
For further analysis of the Saturday Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Friday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL