AFL DraftKings Picks: Sunday, July 5th DFS Strategy
Three games remain on Sunday in Round 5 in the AFL with many teams trying to keep their seasons alive. The slate gets underway at 13:05 Australian Eastern Standard Time (23:05 ET Saturday). The Hawks and the Giants is the feature match of the day with both teams winning narrow matches last round.
DraftKings main GPP’s and mini max contests continue to have serious overlay on each slate so we need to strike while the iron is hot! If this is your first time playing Daily Fantasy Aussie Rules, make sure you check out content from our partners in Australia Daily Fantasy Rankings to get you up to speed on AFL DFS.
If this is your first look at AFL DFS or need to advance your skills then make sure you are aware of the game itself in our How to Articles:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 5 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 5 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Adelaide (+140) v Fremantle (-172)
Total Points Over/Under – 123.5
Spread – 9.5
Melbourne (+160) v Richmond(-200)
Total Points Over/Under – 120.5
Spread – 12.5
GWS (-147) v Hawthorn (+120)
Total Points Over/Under – 124.5
Spread – 6.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (1830 AEST 07-04-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
Adelaide are playing at their Gold Coast hub which is showing Sunny conditions. It is a coolish day in Melbourne with the forecast showers (90%) however the amount is minimal. In Sydney it is a cool night and the prospect of dew may occur.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
Matt Crouch returns to the Crows midfield and Sean Darcy returns to be the Dockers number 1 Ruckman. Nat Fyfe’s injury will open up the Dockers midfield. Hawks rookie Harry Jones makes his debut for the Hawks in the midfield.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $20,000 USD pool for a $11 USD entry. The contest is a 64 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups. .
Quirky Fact – This is the first time since 2010 that Adelaide has started a premiership season 0-4. Currently with a percentage of 51% it is hard to believe that this side played in the 2017 Grand Final.
Lineup Building tip: If it was any other AFL team playing the Crows today then they would be easy stack targets. Fremantle are also winless through 4 rounds and are missing their best player in Nat Fyfe. This opens up some value for the Dockers side but will be hard to trust. Richmond is not a high fantasy scoring side so we may need to look at options for the Hawks, Demons and Giants.
Players of Interest
Sean Darcy – R – $4,400
Darcy returns back to the Fremantle side and will have a tough time against Crows number 1 Ruckman Reilly O’Brien ($7,400). However, like the Crows, O’Brien is out of form and Darcy’s price is too cheap for his potential. Darcy is injury prone and may not see high TOG% to start with. With three Ruckman selected for the Tigers and Max Gawn at $9,000 a 50+ from Darcy will suffice.
Harry Jones – M – $3,200
The young 21-yo midfielder will play his 1st game for the Hawks after dominating the second tier VFL competition in 2019. Only injury setbacks have prevented Jones from senior selection. Jones averaged 87 fantasy points in the VFL in 2019 and was reported to have 35+ possessions in a recent trial match for the Hawks. While we don’t expect those numbers in his 1st game, Jones is one more better fantasy prospect from the class of 2020 debuts.
Caleb Serong – M – $4,200
Trying to predict what Fremantle do without Nat Fyfe in the side can be a difficult task, but we suspect rookie Serong will continue his midfield role for the Dockers. Serong attended 45% of the 22 Centre Bounce Appearances (CBA) in Round 4 and this should continue. Defender Adam Cerra $4,900 attended around 30% of CBA’s until he attended zero last week. We may expect more midfield time against the Crows.
Dustin Martin – M/F – $7,200
One spot we can exploit from the data is the fantasy scores against midfielders from Melbourne. The Cats through their fantasy friendly game style racked up the points in Round 4 and this could be a smash spot for Martin. Well held last week against the Saints, Martin had 111 fantasy points against Melbourne in Round 20 in 2019 with 34 disposals. Hardly any will take on the $7,200 salary so he is a great GPP play.
For further analysis of the Saturday Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Friday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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- Access to Content and LineupHQ
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL