AFL DraftKings Picks: Thursday, July 16th DFS Strategy
Round 7 of the AFL gets underway after another tense week in the league with the worsening situation in Melbourne and COVID spillage in Sydney. But this does not affect Thursday’s match between the Geelong Cats and the Collingwood Magpies because we are now playing in the hub city of Perth. The slate gets underway at 19:40 Australian Eastern Standard Time (05:40 ET Thursday). This is the 1st game played at Optus Stadium in Perth since the resumption of play.
We will continue to educate and teach the game of Aussie Rules DFS throughout the season so do drop in the Discord Chat at any time and ask questions. However you are new to the game then our resources are below to get you started:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 7 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 6 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
Also, be sure to catch some fantastic multimedia from Daily Fantasy Rankings every week. Below, you’ll find the AFL DK Down Under Show in which Smatho and Big Hef break down this match between the Cats and the Pies. The lads talk about building teams for this match with the expected bad weather on the forecast, so make sure you check it out and subscribe on YouTube so you don’t miss an episode!
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Geelong (+102) v Collingwood (-125)
Total Points Over/Under – 102.5
Spread – 2.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (2030 AEST 07-15-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
95% chance of rain, most likely in the afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms also likely in the evening. It is going to be wet for this one!
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
Jordan de Goey has returned to the side after one week out due to league suspension along with Josh Daicos who returns from injury. Jack Steven returns after being managed. Jordan Clark plays his first game since the resumption.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $20,000 USD pool for a $11 USD entry. The contest is a 64 max contest.
Lineup Building tip: With the predicted wet weather, look to players who will be around the stoppages and with high tackling rates. Tackles are worth 4 fantasy points and can be the difference between a mediocre and an excellent fantasy score. Key Forwards struggle in the wet with their marking ability reduced. Investing in premium midfield is the strategy here.
While the potential conditions have diminished this narrative, the Pies are the worst in the league for containing opposition fantasy scoring to defenders. If the game is dry then Cats defenders are in play.
Players of Interest
Brodie Grundy – R – $9,000
Yes, another preview, another Brodie Grundy selection… But this time Grundy is a warrior in the wet. You can forgive his low 53 fantasy game in Sydney against the Hawks. Optus Stadium is a much bigger ground and will have a field day against the inexperienced and lighter framed Darcy Fort. Eat the chalk and move on.
Cam Guthrie – M – $5,800
Guthrie saw a big boost in playing time through the midfield last week after both Quinton Narkle and Mitch Duncan went down with injury. Guthrie featured in 14 centre bounces (behind only Selwood and Dangerfield). From his last three games he has posted 106, 61 and 86 fantasy points and has an inside game style that would suit wet and slippery conditions averaging just under 4 tackles and 2.5 clearances per game.
Atu Bosenavulagi – F – $3,200
The 1st game for Bosenavulagi against the Hawks was impressive with 16 disposals leading to a 51 fantasy score. He looked clean with the ball and never looked like he was a 1st gamer from the outside. However Bosenavulagi looks like an outside half forward so do not expect to see his head over the ball in midfield skirmishes. But as one of the cheapest players on the slate we may need his value to squeeze in premiums.
Taylor Adams – M – $7,600
If the weather comes in as forecast I will be going straight to Taylor Adams as my premium play (if the weather doesn’t eventuate I will be playing Adam Treloar instead). Adams was made for wet weather football, he is a contested beast averaging 5.8 tackles and a massive 6 clearances a game this season. Adams is averaging a massive 90 fantasy points per game this year in the shortened quarters, which is more than enough to return value at this high price point on a single game slate.
Geelong Defenders
As referred to the data above if the game is dry then Geelong defenders are in play. But as Hef struggled to figure out in the DK Down Under Show above, there isn’t a clear standout here. Mark O’Connor, Zach Tuohy and Mark Blicavs could receive boosts if they can link up with the kick/mark play out of the backline.
For further analysis of the Thursday Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Thursday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL