AFL DraftKings Picks: Thursday, July 2nd DFS Strategy
Round 5 of the AFL for now is as scheduled with the pandemic making things tricky for the league with COVID hotspots in Melbourne. The league needed to make adjustments to the fixture last week and we now start round 5 with the St. Kilda Saints taking on Carlton Blues on Thursday Night in Australia 19:40 Australian Eastern Standard Time (05:40 ET Thursday). These two teams were winners in Round 4 with St. Kilda playing some great footy as of late. Let’s break down the slate so we can support the offerings on DraftKings.
DraftKings’ main GPPs and mini max contests have had some serious overlay on each slate so far, so we need to strike while the iron is hot! If this is your first time playing Daily Fantasy Aussie Rules, make sure you check out content from our partners in Australia Daily Fantasy Rankings.
If this is your first look at AFL DFS or need to advance your skills then make sure you are aware of the game itself in our How to Articles:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 5 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 5 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
Also, be sure to catch some fantastic multimedia from Daily Fantasy Rankings every week. Below, you’ll find the AFL DK Down Under Show in which Smatho and Big Hef break down this match between the Blues and the Saints. Subscribe on YouTube and don’t miss an episode!
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
St. Kilda (-154) v Carlton (+125)
Total Points Over/Under – 126.5
Spread – 7.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (1830 AEST 07-01-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
We are under the roof at Marvel Stadium so no issues with the weather on Thursday.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
Carlton will be missing Jack Silvagni after copping a punch in the ribs from Zach Merrett. Zak Jones has a hamstring issue and has been replaced with Jarryn Geary. Paddy Ryder was a late out last Saturday and has not returned to the team.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $50,000 USD pool for a $11 USD entry. The contest is a 150 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups.
Quirky Fact – Sam Docherty’s price tag of $9,300 is the highest for any player since DraftKings launched AFL. Docherty leads fantasy scoring for Defenders by quite some margin and is 2nd league for total Kicks and Marks.
Lineup Building tip: Remarkably, Carlton have been a poor fantasy team in the past couple of seasons with low scoring forwards and a tendency to leak opposition fantasy scoring. Forward to 2020 however and Carlton have improved in all areas of fantasy points scored against the Blues. St Kilda are not too far behind but we have found an edge in the midfield with opposition players having a great time fantasy wise against St. Kilda. Something to keep an eye when looking at midfield positions.
Players of Interest
Rowan Marshall – R – $7,700
Marshall now has the keys for solo Rucking for the Saints and this immediately boosts his fantasy output. Marshall scored 89 fantasy points against the Tigers in Round 4 which was boosted by 2 goals. While Marc Pittonett does represent some savings at $6,800, Marshall has the higher ceiling here.
Sam Walsh – M – $5,800
I have been a frustrated owner since the resumption of the season but Walsh was back to his best with a 90 fantasy point effort against the Bombers. Walsh was $5,500 last round so this slight salary is insignificant after his 24 possessions. With the Saints giving up a fair amount of fantasy points to premium midfielders then Walsh will be popular.
Jack Steele – M – $8,200
Even though Steele will go to Patrick Cripps that hasn’t stopped him finding the football himself. He has averaged 113 points from his four career games against Carlton and 95 points per game at Marvel stadium. In their last matchup while tagging Cripps he posted 108 points (including 14 tackles as he gets drawn to the ball) while holding Cripps to 69. This year he has been solid as a rock with only one game below 82 points in the shortened quarters format.
Ben Long – F – $3,900
Whilst he is classified as a forward, Long has played in the defence for the Saints providing lock down roles on small forwards. Likely to play on Carlton forward Eddie Betts, Long has cashed in on the Saints possession game out of their defensive half along with Nick Coffield and Jake Carlise. Long scored 69FP in Round 4 with 17 possessions and 7 tackles. Carlton have been restricting defensive fantasy scoring so far but at that low price, Long needs to be considered.
Sam Docherty – D – $9,300
Not a play for mine but a warning on potential game script. There is a real chance that Saints Defender Jonathan Marsh or Saints Captain Jarryn Geary will play on Docherty in a lock down role. There isn’t a stand out intercept marker that warrants a forward tag, however Docherty has been in sensation form spearheading the Blues attack from defense the last two games. At the same price tag it is a big risk.
For further analysis of the Thursday Showdown Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Sunday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL