AFL DraftKings Picks: Thursday, July 9th DFS Strategy
Round 6 of the AFL gets underway in the most extraordinary circumstances with the city of Melbourne in lockdown and the 10 Victorian teams leaving the state and to be relocated in other parts of the country.
We have two cracking teams on Thursday with the Geelong Cats taking on Brisbane Lions. The slate gets underway at 19:40 Australian Eastern Standard Time (05:40 ET Saturday). This is the first round in the modern era that games are played on neutral venues.
We will continue to educate and teach the game of Aussie Rules DFS throughout the season so do drop in the Discord Chat at any time and ask questions. However you are new to the game then our resources are below to get you started:
— NEW! AFL DFS: A Beginner’s Guide to Aussie Rules Football
— AFL Daily Fantasy Strategy Steps to Success
— Using AFL Data
You will also want to leverage these tools to help build your Round 6 lineups:
— AFL Daily Projections from Daily Fantasy Rankings
— AFL Lineup Optimizer / Lineup Builder: LineupHQ
— FREE DraftKings Round 6 Cheat Sheet and Projections
— FREE DFS Matchup and Data Tools from Daily Fantasy Rankings
Also, be sure to catch some fantastic multimedia from Daily Fantasy Rankings every week. Below, you’ll find the AFL DK Down Under Show in which Smatho and Big Hef break down this match between the Cats and the Lions. The lads talk about Centre Bounce Appearances (CBA) so make sure you check it out and subscribe on YouTube so you don’t miss an episode!
AFL Betting Market Odds, Teams and Weather
Geelong (+120) v Brisbane (-160)
Total Points Over/Under – 129.5
Spread – 6.5
Lines and Prices are correct at the time of publication (2030 AEST 07-08-2020) and subject to change.
Weather Forecast
Sunny day in Sydney, into a cool evening. No issues here in the forecast.
Team Announcements
Final teams can be accessed via the League’s Website afl.com.au for this match and a reminder that confirmed starters are at 60 minutes before the match commences.
Jack Steven has been managed for this match with Sam Simpson taking his place. As expected, Dayne Zorko returns for Cam Ellis-Yeoman who has a calf injury.
Credit – afl.com.au
Fantasy Contests Available
DraftKings have posted their main GPP contest with a $30,000 USD pool for a $11 USD entry. The contest is a 96 max contest. DraftKings are now starting to post contests and salaries at earlier times which is fantastic to study for lineups.
It’s #TimeForFooty!
— USAFL (@USAFL1997) July 8, 2020
Big weekend of #AFL Aussie Rules starts Thursday morning with the big Cats-Lions clash. #Coxzilla and company take on the Hawks on Friday.
Which games are you looking forward to? pic.twitter.com/v8RNkRdtwW
Lineup Building tip: Tough slate to find an edge in this match with both teams restricting fantasy scoring in each position. The Lions are playing very good footy and should be favourites in this match. The Cats have starved the opposition by playing slow possession football (4th in uncontested possessions), while the Lions are contested monsters, applying an incredible amount of pressure and moving the ball as quickly as possible. So what does this mean? Make sure you invest in premium players on this slate.
Players of Interest
Stefan Martin – R – $5,000
Unfortunately DraftKings have not caught up with the Geelong Ruck situation with Darcy Fort and Esava Ratugolea still having Forward status. Thus this leaves a coin flip between Martin and Oscar McInerney. Martin is the number 1 ruckman for the Lions and is at a cheaper price. Martin for Cash Games and will be highly owned in GPP. Pick and move on.
Jarryd Lyons – M – $8,300
Lyons has been a fantasy monster this season averaging 94 per game in the shortened quarters. Stacking the Brisbane midfield on this slate will be popular and in my opinion I am liking the Lions to destroy the Cats. The first point of call will be Lyons as Lachie Neale is priced way up with limited value available.
Sam Simpson – M – $3,200
Simpson is a mature age recruit, which are typically the type of minimum priced debutantes you want to pile into. He played a single game in 2018 for Geelong (7 disposals) and 5 games in 2017 (11 disposals per game), which does not jump off the page. However since then he was moved into the middle at VFL level where he won the competition best and fairest. He has been brought in to replace Jack Steven, which means he should get an opportunity on the flanks and wing to score enough to return value at this price point.
Harris Andrews – D – $3,000
We discussed Andrews on the DK Down Under Show video above which Hef and I identified a lack of premium options in defence. Andrews is a Key Defender but is renowned for his intercepting Marking along with shutting down Key Forwards. Andrews got the job done against red-hot forward Charlie Dixon and this match he gets Tom Hawkins. The lack of points these two teams give mean we may need to go cheap.
For further analysis of the Thursday Slate and access to Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL resources, we have a further breakdown on this slate in our Friday Preview on the Daily Fantasy Rankings site.
RotoGrinders Premium subscribers can also access DraftKings AFL DFS Projections, which can be found in LineupHQ for more great options on this week’s slate.
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Author: Luke Mathyssen
Player Image Credit – AFL