CFP National Championship Odds: Ohio State vs. Alabama Picks & Predictions
Meeting for the first time since 2014, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes will clash inside Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, Jan. 11 for the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship.
It’s not just any national title game — this game has one of the highest point totals of any national title game in college football history.
2021 CFP National Championship Odds
Entering Monday night ranked 1st and 2nd in offensive efficiency, respectively, Alabama and Ohio State are projected to combine for 75 points. Favored by 9 points at online sportsbooks, the Crimson Tide carry a projected team total of 42 and the Buckeyes 33.
Merely a push on the point total would make the 2021 National Championship the third-highest scoring national championship game ever, behind only Texas vs. USC in 2006 (41-38) and Alabama vs. Clemson in 2016 (45-40).
Alabama Crimson Tide
In the past, it’s largely been Nick Saban’s defenses that lead Alabama to national championship appearances. However, that hasn’t been the case this season, as Alabama’s offense, led by the Heisman Trophy recipient and a Heisman finalist, has averaged 48.2 points per game, the highest mark in the FBS.
The two players I’m referring to need no introduction. Wide receiver Devonta Smith and quarterback Mac Jones connected 98 times for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns during the regular season, on their way to becoming the first teammates named Heisman finalists since 2004.
Jones linked up with his Heisman Trophy-winning receiver seven times for three touchdowns and 130 yards against Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
In short, Alabama’s offense is nearly—if not—perfect. Whether through the air or on the ground, this is the best offense Nick Saban has ever had — an offense so prolific that this might be the best team Saban has ever had despite an unusually vulnerable defense (by Saban’s standards).
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State’s season was shortened due to a delayed Big Ten start. Still, Ohio State built a resume that would send them to the College Football Playoff. What college football fans did not expect was the way this Buckeyes team got rid of No. 2 Clemson and presumptive No. 1-overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence in their semifinal matchup.
Scoring 49 points in a 21-point victory, the Buckeyes showed exactly why they were so tough to beat during the regular season and that their invite to the big dance was more than justified.
Justin Field’s arm strength, precision, and overall toughness were on display throughout as he outshined Lawrence. Field’s numbers are no joke — in seven games, he’s averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and thrown 21 touchdowns.
In addition to big plays through the air against Clemson, Ohio State running back Trey Sermon dominated on the ground as he rushed for 193 yards on 33 carries. His 6.2 yards per attempt in the semifinal game was 1.2 yards fewer than his season average. Don’t be surprised if Ohio State turns to Sermon early as they try to control the clock and possession.
Running the ball could feasibly work against Alabama. The Tide’s defense is 34th in Defensive Rush Success rate and has a tendency to give up explosive plays to opposing running backs.
Alabama vs. Ohio State National Championship Picks
Unsurprisingly, Alabama bettors have dominated the books this season as the Crimson Tide have covered the spread in eight of their 12 games. When have Bama fans not profited, you ask? In the College Football Playoff and national championship games. Though favored all 13 times, Saban is only 3-10 against the spread in such games. My money is on Saban making that 4-10 Monday night, even though ESPNs Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric suggests otherwise.
SP+ basically makes Alabama 4.5-point favorites, which is quite a bit shorter than what we see at online sportsbooks. Watching Ohio State-Clemson highlights will certainly push you in that direction, but there are some reasons for skepticism.
For one, Justin Fields returned and finished the game, but he was clearly not 100% healthy. Ohio State’s answers regarding Field’s injury have been vague after Field’s said the staff “shot him up” but that he didn’t really know what was wrong.
Keeping up with this Alabama offense is tough enough when one is completely healthy. Sure, Fields has had a full week of practice, and he’s at least in good enough condition to play, but there’s obviously a chance he’s not 100%. Whether broken ribs or not, Fields reportedly had bruised his side. Were 10 days enough to heal? If not, things might be more difficult for Ohio State’s offense Monday night
As discussed earlier, Ohio State will try to use the running game to keep Alabama off the field and Fields safe, but as we’ve seen all year, attempts to control the clock eventually become futile against Alabama.
Inevitably, Alabama’s offense will leave Ohio State no choice but to rely on the pass. While Alabama’s defense has given up plenty of points this season, they do have arguably the nation’s best cornerback in Patrick Surtain. Additionally, Sermon could be fatigued after carrying 60 times over the last two games — five more carries than he had through Ohio State’s five regular-season games.
Ultimately, Alabama’s offense is too much to overcome, and though their defense hasn’t performed up to Saban’s standards, they have sufficient playmakers on that side of the ball to stop Ohio State’s offense enough times to win and cover the spread.
MVP Odds and Predictions
While Smith walked away with the prestigious Heisman Trophy last week, it’s Mac Jones who is favored to win MVP of the national championship. At PointsBet, it’s Jones +275, Devonta Smith +550, and Alabama running back Najee Harris +600.
For Ohio State, Fields is +450 to win MVP. The Buckeyes will have to overcome the odds and upset Alabama for Fields to stand a chance. With a moneyline price of +250 to win outright, the Buckeyes implied probability is 28.6% to win the 9th national title (and their first since 2014). Considering Fields is a bit banged up and played through injury against Clemson, if I’m looking for Ohio State exposure, I’d prefer the spread or the moneyline over a Fields MVP bet.
Of course, if you read the section above, you know I’m not looking for Ohio State exposure. When it comes to the National Championship MVP, I prefer Jones or Harris. If Smith has a big game, so too does his quarterback, and voters are well aware which Alabama player won the Heisman. Smith has plenty of hardware already — an MVP in the national title game is a nice consolation prize for Jones.
[Bet Mac Jones +275 or Najee Harris to Win MVP at PointsBet]
Best National Championship Prop
Trey Sermon OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards at PointsBet – I expect the Buckeyes to be playing catch-up. Even when they weren’t playing from behind against Clemson, Serman managed to rack up 61 receiving yards on 4 catches. On top of 60 carries in his last two games, Sermons has been targeted 10 times by Fields during that same span. Moreover, there does seem to be some value on this prop at PointsBet, which is 6.5 yards fewer than it is at BetMGM. I only see this line getting higher throughout the day.
[Bet Sermon OVER 30 Receiving Yards at PointsBet]
If you like to shoot for a middle….this looks like a pretty decent spot for Monday night’s championship game. pic.twitter.com/eiFtK0ZzyU
— Dan Back (@dan_back) January 10, 2021
2021-22 National Championship Odds
PointsBet has already opened futures odds for the 2021-22 National Championship. Take a look, and sign up at PointsBet to get in on the action:
2021-2022 CFB Title Odds:
- Clemson +300
- Alabama +300
- Ohio State +500
- Georgia +800
- Oklahoma +800
- Florida +2000
- Texas A&M +3000
- Notre Dame +3000
- Wisconsin +4000
- LSU +4000
Check out more tips to help you make college football betting picks.
Image Credit: Imagn