2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Golf Betting Picks: Odds Favor McIlroy, Hovland & DeChambeau

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-03-02 15:08:00

One week ahead of The PLAYERS Championship, a field of 123 golfers, including Rory McIlroy and defending champion Tyrell Hatton, head to Bay Hill for the second stop of the Florida swing on the PGA Tour. Here’s a preview of the tournament with a closer look at the odds, golf betting tips and picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

Course Notes

• Bay Hill Golf Club
• Par 72
• 7,419 Yards
• Greens: Bermuda
• Field: 125 players
• Cut rule: Top 65 and Ties

Concession Golf Club made its professional debut last week, but golfers return to familiar territory for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Golf bettors will have to balance how much they want to weigh course history and recent form when making their betting picks. There are a host of golfers who consistently play well at Bay Hill but whose recent form leaves much to be desired. Shall we give them the benefit of the doubt, or is it time to fade to the likes of Henrik Stenson and Rickie Fowler?

Water is plentiful at Bay Hill, and so is the sand — with 84 bunkers scattered throughout. As we witnessed last year, the sporadic Florida weather can make the course even more challenging to navigate. Hatton won in 2020 despite shooting over par on Saturday and Sunday. Keep an eye on Kevin Roth’s PGA Weather Report to stay on top of weather conditions before things tee off.

It goes without saying golfers need to be accurate off the tee. However, several fairways have been widened in recent years, allowing players to blast their tee shots at a few few accessible fairways. Other tee boxes require more prudence, forcing golfers to stay disciplined by keeping their driver in the bag. As a result, golfers will have a healthy dose of 200+ yard approach shots. Finding golfers who excel from this distance is one angle to use when perusing golf odds at online sports betting sites.

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Recent Form Report

With World No. 1 Dustin Johnson taking a break, it’s McIlroy (+850) who returns as the betting favorite. 23-year-old Viktor Hovland (+1200) catapulted himself up the betting board after gaining 8.7 strokes approach, making it three consecutive tournaments in which the young gun has gained at least four strokes with his second shots. Even more impressive, Hovland was 5.14 strokes better tee-to-green than the rest of the field on Saturday and Sunday. Ranking 1st in the field in ball-striking in 2021, Hovland certainly has the type of game, off the tee and with his approach shots, that can win at Bay Hill. And no golfer enters the tournament with better recent form than Hovland who has finished 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 31st, and 1st in his last five outings.

Bryson Dechambeau hasn’t been as sharp recently. He missed the cut at Riviera, then started last week with a first-round 77 (+5). DeChambeau eventually dug himself out of the hole on his way to a respectable 22nd-place finish. DeChambeau will utilize his power off the tee by playing Bay Hill unlike anyone else. It worked for him last year as he gained 7.2 strokes with his driver—nearly three strokes better than the field—en route to a fourth-place finish. It’s also worth noting that DeChambeau finished 2nd here in 2018.

While cases can be made for all three golfers, their odds are too short to pique my interest. I prefer longer golf odds, especially on a course with as much trouble as Bay Hill. However, I will keep my eye on live odds after things tee off. We could find a better number if one of the favorites is slow out of the gates on Thursday.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Picks

Justin Rose +7000

1 Unit to Win 70

Losing 4.6 strokes tee-to-green and finishing 54th, the Englishman didn’t look great in his first tournament of the year on U.S. soil. However, Rose is just one month removed from giving Dustin Johnson a run for his money at the Saud International. In that tournament, Rose tied for 2nd with Tony Finau. We know Rose is a great ball-striker and can compete with anyone when he’s firing on all cylinders. I really like betting Rose when his price tag drops below 60-to-1, as is the case this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a tournament that Rose has found success in over the course of his career.

[Bet Rose +7000 at BetMGM]

Corey Conners +12000

1/2 Unit to Win 60

Statistically Conners check all the boxes that don’t involve a putter. He’s excellent off the tee and is a pure ball-striker. Before missing the cut at the Genesis, the Canadian had made nine consecutive cuts — and to be clear, he hasn’t merely made cuts but has competed with six top-20s, including three top-10s. Not too shabby for a golfer carrying longshot odds like these.

[Bet Conners+12000 at FanDuel Sportsbook]

More Longshot Bets

Risking 0.20 Unit to Win 30 on Each

Byeon Hun An +15000 at PointsBet

Keegan Bradley +15000 at BetMGM

Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Card

2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: -19.7 Units

Image Credit: Imagn