Avoiding FanDuel Traps in Week 14
My father-in-law is not particularly big on hunting.
Now, the guy spent over 30 years in the military, so it has nothing to do with a dislike of guns – and he’s certainly not a vegetarian, so that’s not the issue, either. Instead, he simply does not quite understand the pleasure inherent in hunting something that cannot hunt you back. Hunting a lion or a bear in an uncontrolled environment would be one thing, in his mind; hunting a deer, on the other hand, is just plain pointless.
I have never been hunting myself, so I cannot exactly speak from experience – but speaking strictly from a place of logical thought and assessment, I must say I agree with him. On the one hand, sure, you can get some good meat – and can feel like a man for having caught that food yourself. But on the other hand…I don’t know. I guess it’s the pictures with the deer that I don’t get. You know, “Look what I got. I’m awesome!” Are you? That thing wasn’t hunting you in return, was it? It was just grabbing an afternoon meal when you popped it from afar!
Obviously, if you’re reading this as a hunter, you feel there is something about it that I just “don’t get” – and that’s fine, because I certainly have nothing against the sport of hunting or the pleasure you derive from it…in fact, frankly, I think it’s great you have found something you enjoy doing, as most grown men (and women, for that matter) – if they truly pause to think about it – have no idea what they “enjoy doing.” Keep hunting, then – that’s awesome! That’s not my point.
My point, instead, is this: oh, wait. Hold on. I’m actually not there yet…
Okay, Thanksgiving. This last week. My in-laws rented a large lodge in the hills of Arkansas big enough to house the entire family – five bedrooms, six bunk beds, a massive media room with an HD projector, a large fireplace, and huge windows looking out over the 700 acres on which the house was situated. We stayed there on Wednesday and Thursday night, and on Thursday morning – before the start of football – my father-in-law, my wife, and a few of my nieces and nephews bundled up and went outside to explore the land. When they came back, my father-in-law told me about the deer blind he had found on the land…
The deer stand (is that the right term? – you know, the part that you wait in with your gun?) was about 40 feet above the ground, overlooking a clearing. And in the middle of this clearing, there was a feeder in place to feed the deer in the area. This feeder was set to automatically release food every couple days, and there was also a camera mounted onto a nearby tree that was then hooked up to a satellite antennae; the camera was motion-triggered, in order to be able to take (and transmit) pictures of the deer that were coming to eat at the feeder. Ultimately, this boiled down to a “hunting experience” that went something like this: set up a feeder to lure the local deer into a false sense of safety; examine pictures to know which deer are visiting the feeder; hang out in the deer stand one day when time permits and wait for the biggest deer to come along, then snipe the deer from above; take a picture with the deer and post it on Facebook, showing off your accomplishment…
Sure, hunting.
But really, that’s hardly more than simply “setting a trap.” The deer in the area come to view this feeder as a safe, consistent place to find food, and eventually one of these deer will pay the price. The deer never imagine that there is any reason to be wary of this ready-made feeder; it is not until one of them looks back at the feeder in retrospect (do deer do that?) that they will realize that it had obviously been a trap all along. Sure, they got away with it for a while, but it had always been a disaster waiting to happen. If the surviving deer were smart, they would watch for such traps from that point forward…they would, instead, look for Wildlife Refuges where they could graze safely and freely.
(You ready for this? It’s gonna be awesome – I’m about to seamlessly tie that into daily fantasy football…)
And really, daily fantasy football is exactly the same (see that? – nice!). Every week, there are players that stand out to us as obvious plays in the same way that feeder in the middle of that field stands out to the deer as an obvious source of food. And sure, sometimes we can choose these “trap players” and still succeed…but eventually, filling up on these “trap players” will lead to you getting sniped from the deer stand 40 feet above the ground. You’ll look back in retrospect and say, “What the heck? Why did I choose those players – they were obviously traps!” And after that, you will aim to avoid such traps, and will strive to instead find those players who are the equivalent of a deer grazing safely and freely in Rocky Mountain National Park.
If you want to achieve an optimal level of success in daily fantasy sports, however, the real key is to identify the “traps” before you get tricked by them and have your entire team sniped from above! The key is to recognize traps and avoid them altogether, and to instead fill up your team with safe, wide-open, government-protected fields!
As such, we are going to use this article this week to identify the potential “trap players” that may be standing out to you as obvious feeding grounds…and are going to instead aim to point you toward some of the Wildlife Refuges where you will be able to fill up in safety! (Have I killed the analogy by now? Yeah…yeah, I think I have.)
As many of you probably know already, one of the most important undertakings of mine each week is my game-by-game breakdown, in which I jot down my thoughts on how I see each and every game playing out, based on the manner in which each team is likely to attack its opponent (and based on the success – or lack of success – each team is likely to have in their chosen approach). By doing this each week, I am able to gain a clearer idea of the players likeliest to have big games and the players likeliest to disappoint. Using that knowledge and information, then, it becomes far easier to identify the “traps,” and to also identify the “safe feeding grounds.”
And so, based off the way in which I see each game playing out this NFL weekend, here is a look at three “traps” and three “wildlife refuges” at each position!
Note: As always, of course, you could fill up at a trap and still end up being perfectly safe, and you could live in a Wildlife Refuge and still get struck by lightning or die of dysentery, but you will always be putting yourself in the best possible position for success if you are avoiding traps and instead sticking to the safest (highest-upside) feeding grounds possible!
QUARTERBACK
TRAPS:
RYAN TANNEHILL v Ravens – $8600
Ryan Tannehill has definitely had his best season as a pro, and the Ravens have had a very weak secondary ever since losing Jimmy Smith for the season. While I do not expect Tannehill to have a poor game, however, it is worth recognizing that his poor performance on Monday night has not been factored into his price for this week, as pricing was released before that game was played. As such, he is priced as the #6 QB on the board on FanDuel, when he should be around 10 or 12. Because this should ultimately be a somewhat low-scoring game, with the Ravens pass rush forcing the Dolphins to stick to short, chain-moving passes, Tannehill’s upside is capped. And while he should have a solid game, he is unlikely to finish the week as a Top-6 QB play – making him an overpriced option on the week.
MATTHEW STAFFORD v Buccaneers – $8300
For all the talk about how atrocious the Buccaneers pass defense is, have you paid attention to what they have done the last few weeks? NFL teams are always improving in certain areas and regressing in certain areas throughout the season, which makes it dangerous – this late in the season – to look simply at full-season performance and statistics! Over the last three weeks, the Bucs have earned a positive pass coverage grade on Pro Football Focus in each game, and they have held the Bengals, Bears, and Redskins to a combined(!) 513 passing yards over those three games (that’s 171 yards per game). Sure, the Lions have a solid passing attack, but Stafford has topped 20 fantasy points on only four occasions this year, and I do not see this being a great spot for him to reach that mark for a fifth time.
RYAN FITZPATRICK v Jaguars – $7200
Well, that was fun, Fitzpatrick – welcome back to the starting gig! Don’t expect six touchdowns again, however; this is still an offense that is centered around the run (the Texans had only 13 passing touchdowns in the first 11 games of the season!), and the Jaguars pass rush is not going to give Fitzpatrick the sort of time he had against the Titans. Furthermore, although the Jags do not boast a top secondary, they also do not have Blidi Wreh-Wilson bleeding points to WRs as the Titans do. Don’t be fooled by last week; Fitzpatrick is solid, but he is not a $7200 QB – especially not in this run-first offense.
WILDLIFE REFUGES:
DREW BREES v Panthers – $9400
This is more about saving a bit of money on Aaron Rodgers than it is about anything else. While Rodgers is playing at home against the atrocious Falcons secondary, Brees is playing at home against the atrocious Panthers secondary, and he costs $1000 less than Rodgers! What’s more, the Packers boast an excellent defense that could shut down the Falcons and put Rodgers on the sideline by the 4th quarter. And while it is certainly possible that the Saints take the air out of the ball by the 4th quarter as well, this is less likely than it is with the Packers, as the Saints defense is miserable, and the Panthers at least have the tools (if not the recent performance) to keep Brees passing. With Brees, you can get the same ceiling you would get with Rodgers, at a nice little discount.
RUSSELL WILSON v Eagles – $8500
The strength of the Eagles defense is stopping the run – and while I do not think the Eagles will exactly shut down Marshawn Lynch, I do think the Seahawks will have to pass a bit more than usual. Even more importantly, however – as you are surely well aware – the Eagles have one of the top-5 scoring offenses in the NFL. Do I think they will put together a record-setting day against this Seahawks defense? Absolutely not. But the Eagles – at home – should be able to score more points against the Seahawks than most teams are able to, which will cause Russ to have to drop back (and hopefully take off with the ball) more often than normal. A final line of 200 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and two or three TDs is not at all out of the question.
BRIAN HOYER v Colts – $6700
Oh, hey there – is that the Johnny Manziel train you’re all jumping off of? Before the last three weeks, Brian Hoyer has been a solid (if unspectacular) QB, and if there is one thing we seem to see all the time in the NFL, it is guys rising to the challenge when they feel they are proving themselves. After being benched last week and having to wait until Wednesday to find out if he still had the starting gig, I expect Hoyer to come out swinging this week – and with the Colts likely missing Vontae Davis, this is an extremely good matchup for Hoyer to succeed. Of course, the Browns do have a solid defense, but the Colts will still put up points. And while the Browns will start out trying to attack on the ground, they will have to go to the air eventually. When they do, the Hoyer-to-Gordon connection will be lethal, and Hoyer could have a tremendous game for the price.
RUNNING BACK
TRAPS:
LE’VEON BELL v Bengals – $9300
I don’t hate Le’Veon Bell this week. Heck, I don’t hate him any week. But the Bengals have tightened up significantly against the run lately, and I expect this to be a low-scoring, back-and-forth battle that will somewhat limit the upside Bell typically has. Will he have a good game? Sure – I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t! But given the matchup, the game flow assumptions, and the price tag, I feel he is unlikely to reward you with the sort of day you would want.
TRE MASON v Redskins – $7200
Last week was a blast – but last week was also against the Raiders. And sure, we can probably assume quite safely that the Rams will have a lead again this week, and that Mason will receive plenty of carries as a result. But the strength of this Redskins defense (by far!) is stopping the run. They have shut down much more talented running backs (and much stronger blocking units) than they will face this week. And – again – while I feel Mason will have a solid all-around game, the price tag is far too steep to make him a strong play this week.
LATAVIUS MURRAY v 49ers – $6700
We waited all season for him to get a chance…then he got four carries, topped 100 yards, scored 2 touchdowns, and suffered a concussion. He should be back this week, and the hype train should be in full effect – but keep in mind a couple things: 1) The 49ers are solid against the run, and the Raiders still have the worst run-blocking unit in the NFL, and 2) McFadden will still be involved, and Murray is unlikely to receive more than 12 or 14 carries – especially in one of the NFL’s pass-heaviest offenses. I cannot justify taking Murray in this matchup, even at this price.
WILDLIFE REFUGES:
EDDIE LACY v Falcons – $8500
As much as I like Rodgers this week, I love Eddie Lacy. After all, we are not exactly going out on a limb in predicting that the Packers will take a big lead in this game…and when they do, it will be Lacy running against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL (instead of Rodgers passing against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL) to close out the game. He will be involved in both the passing game and the running game when this contest is still in doubt, and once the Packers have things in hand, he’ll be the one running the clock down to zero. At $8500, in this matchup, with the game flow assumptions this game yields, Lacy is an absolute steal.
MARK INGRAM v Panthers – $7700
Similar to Eddie Lacy: If the Saints get out to a big lead in this one, Ingram will be the guy running out the clock. If you can bank on 25 touches for any NFL running back, he is worth consideration. When that running back is as talented as Ingram, then, and is facing a team as bad against the run as the Panthers (allowing an average of 4.4 yards per carry – bottom-10 in the NFL), at a price of $7700, he quickly becomes one of the strongest plays of the week.
DANIEL HERRON v Browns – $6400
Yet again, we look to a running back on a team we expect to have a solid lead by the time the 4th quarter rolls around. Yes, I know we have Trent Richardson to contend with, but when the price tag is this low on a guy in a high-powered offense who is likely to have over 15 touches (and could have as many as 20 or 25), he is worth serious consideration! I expect Herron to have 12 touches (maybe 9 runs and 3 receptions) through the first three quarters, then I would not be surprised to see another 7 or 8 carries in the 4th quarter as things wind down.
INJURIES TO WATCH FOR: If Isaiah Crowell misses, Terrance West becomes an extremely strong play as the workhorse back for the Browns against a Colts team that struggles to stop the run. If Rashad Jennings misses, Andre Williams against the Titans and their league-worst run defense becomes a very strong consideration as well!
WIDE RECEIVER
TRAPS:
CALVIN JOHNSON v Buccaneers – $9200
See Stafford, Matthew. Do I think the Bucs will shut down Calvin Johnson? No. But how have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and A.J. Green looked against the Bucs the last couple weeks? Now that the Bucs are finally coming together in the secondary, I see Johnson’s immense upside being somewhat capped in this one. Sure, he should still have a solid game, but the chances of him making it worth your budget to pay up for this price are very slim.
JEREMY MACLIN v Seahawks – $8200
Jeremy Maclin runs about 75% of his routes on the right side of the Eagles formation – which means he will run about 75% of his routes directly into the coverage of Richard Sherman. Love him or hate him, Sherman truly is one of the NFL’s elite corners, and there is no reason to tangle with him in your fantasy lineups if you can avoid it. Could Maclin break off some big plays when lined up away from Sherman, or even in a breakdown in Sherman’s coverage? Of course he could. But there are other players with a much higher likelihood of providing the sort of production you hope to find for your team!
DAVANTE ADAMS v Falcons – $6000
Davante Adams is going to be an excellent NFL wide receiver. Heck, earlier this year, I even traded Odell Beckham for Davante Adams in a keeper league of mine (okay…maybe Adams won’t be THAT much of a star – I do fully regret that trade at the moment – but the point is: Adams has a chance to be that level of good), but as long as Cobb and Jordy are around, Adams is only going to be a serious consideration in games in which we can expect those two to be shut down (games, for example, in which those two are matched up with Browner and Revis). Against the Falcons, at least one of Cobb/Jordy should be open at all times, which will leave Davante Adams picking up the scraps.
WILDLIFE REFUGES:
JOSH GORDON v Colts – $8000
It’s not hype – Vontae Davis truly has become one of the NFL’s elite corners. It’s also not hyperbole, however, to say that the rest of the Colts secondary is borderline-awful. If Vontae Davis misses this week, you have a chance to grab a guy who is probably one of the top-3 WRs in the NFL, against an awful secondary, in a game in which his team is likely to have to pass a decent amount, all for only $8000. Best of all? – because people are disappointed that Hoyer is starting, Gordon’s ownership should be lower than it really ought to be. Advantage: You.
JORDAN MATTHEWS v Seahawks – $7500
While Maclin will be mostly matched up on Richard Sherman, Matthews runs 93% of his routes out of the slot, where he will be matched up with beatable slot corner Jeremy Lane. Yes, the Seahawks have a good defense no matter how you slice it, but the Eagles also have a good offense. They will still pick up yards. They will still put up points. And there is a very good chance that a large percentage of any yards/points they do get will go through Matthews.
KENNY STILLS v Panthers – $6400
The FanDuel algorithm hates Kenny Stills. That’s really the only explanation. Last week, Stills was only on the field for about half the game – but after the Saints got out to a huge lead early, there were a lot of weird usage trends. What matters more is that he still received 6 of Brees’ 27 targets (a solid 22% rate), and he continued to produce in the Brandin Cooks role. Stills has the talent to torch this secondary, and he should have the usage to do so as well. At a price tag of only $6400, it’s practically robbery!
OTHER WIDE RECEIVERS I LIKE: At cheap price tags, I also like Stedman Bailey against the Redskins – receiving a huge chunk of the targets for the Rams the last two weeks and facing a very poor secondary – and I like Charles Johnson against the Jets in a game in which the Vikings will have to pass because of the stout nature of the Jets run D.
INJURIES TO WATCH FOR: Jay Gruden already said earlier in the week that he wants to get Pierre Garcon more involved; if DeSean Jackson misses this Sunday’s game against the Rams, I expect his hand to be forced in this area, and for Garcon to be in line for a big game – especially with the Rams ability to effectively take an opponent’s tight end out of the game.
TIGHT END
TRAPS:
ROB GRONKOWSKI v Chargers – $7700
Yes, I still expect a solid game from Gronk. It doesn’t really matter how good a team is against the tight end, after all – Gronk is still going to beast! But with how high his price is compared to the other tight ends on the board – and considering the Chargers ability to defend the TD – I cannot bring myself to pay up for the Gronk Monster this week. He’ll have a solid game, as always, but he is unlikely to make you regret fading him in this matchup.
GREG OLSEN v Saints – $6500
The Saints are another team that is good against the tight end position. Good? Scratch that – I mean great. And considering this is about the only thing the Saints do well on defense, there will really be no reason for the Panthers to force the ball to Olsen when Kelvin Benjamin should be open, and there should be running lanes for Jonathan Stewart, and Cam should be able to tuck the ball and run as well. Olsen has the talent to pop off for a big game in even the toughest of matchups, but there are better places to place your bets this week than here.
JORDAN REED v Rams – $5300
At this price, with Colt McCoy’s obsession with throwing to the tight end, Reed is extremely appealing this week. With that said, the Rams are yet another team that is excellent at defending the tight end. Do you really want to risk the dead spot Reed could create on your roster? Trust me – there are other guys in the same price range who have a much greater likelihood of turning in an excellent performance!
WILDLIFE REFUGES:
JIMMY GRAHAM v Panthers – $7100
A lot of Saints in this article, huh? Well, can you blame me! Coming off a game in which he saw zero(!) targets, I expect the Saints to aim to get Graham involved early and often. The Panthers have a difficult time defending everything – tight end included – and this means it should be a great week for Graham to have one of his classic, monster, no-dunks-over-the-goal-posts games.
DELANIE WALKER v Giants – $5400
After a down week last week, the hope is that most people will avoid Delanie Walker this week. This would be good for us, because the Giants allow more yards per catch to the tight end than any team in the NFL! As with most young QBs, Mettenberger looks to his tight end often, and this week provides a great opportunity for Walker to put up huge numbers.
JARED COOK v Redskins – $4900
After a one-target week last week, Cook is certainly tough to trust – but the Redskins are good against the run and bad against the pass, and Cook did not suddenly lose his place in the offense (or in Shaun Hill’s heart). The Rams will probably have to throw 30+ times in this game, even if they prefer to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, and a good 7 or 8 of those targets should go to Cook. Against this defense, at this price, that could lead to a very nice return!
That’s all for this week.
Worth noting: It is not a trap to follow me on Twitter (JMToWin is the handle!), as I use Twitter to provide my late-week thoughts and to answer lineup questions.
It’s also not a trap to comment on this article! Are there any other players you are looking at this week, or are there any other players you feel are traps?
Best of luck this week. Go find your Wildlife Refuges – and freely and safely feast!