Bargain Bin & Injury Value: Week 3
Each week this article will be dedicated to highlighting players who I perceive to be excellent values on DraftKings – be it via a bargain/discounted price or due to an injury that opens up additional looks/touches.
Value Town
QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady – $6,900 vs Oakland
To be clear, if you are looking for a cash game QB I’d lock in Drew Brees (or one of the Quarterbacks from the Green Bay vs. Detroit game), but if you’re looking to be a little contrarian, give Tom a look. Sure, he’s 37 years old and hasn’t looked all that great so far this year. That said, the Patriots will take on the inept Oakland Raiders in a game where they are two touchdown favorites. Can you say get-right game? If we are to trust the Las Vegas lines, we can expect New England to put up at least four TDs. Figuring out how those scores are distributed is the tricky part, but given the option to buy Tom Brady shares in this game at this deflated price is something I want in on. I’m not ready to just call him a fading name-brand that is no longer worth your attention. At least not this week. Not against this opponent.
RUNNING BACK
Stevan Ridley – $4,700 vs Oakland
The Patriots are a huge favorite and that they should have no issues with Oakland. Rotogrinders’ Defense vs. RB tool tells us that the Raiders have given up a league worst 200 yards per game on the ground so far this year. With the high probability of a New England lead late, one would assume they will grind the game out, and add to the Raiders woes in stopping the running game. The trippy part is figuring out what New England RB will benefit from all these presumed late game carries. This is what makes Ridley more of a tournament play as coach Bill Belichick, bless his heart, can be very fickle when it comes to who gets to carry the ball in his offense. Ridley only carried the rock 8 times in week 1, but was the bell cow last week with being fed 25 times. Needless to say Belichick doesn’t care for your fantasy team as Ridley’s week-to-week variance isn’t ideal, but the combination of upside and price-tag warrant your attention for tournaments. If you are making multiple lineups, don’t be shy about unleashing Shane Vereen. At least one of these Patriot backs will pay off nicely, so missing out on Bill’s favorite for the week would be a shame.
WIDE RECEIVER
DeSean Jackson – $5,000 at Philadelphia
REVENGE! DeSean didn’t have the smoothest of exits when the Eagles discarded him in the off-season, and you can bet he’s had his return to Philadelphia circled on his calendar ever since signing with Washington. I expect DeSean to be in the ear of Kirk Cousins constantly reminding him of this (ALL the narratives!). DeSean’s injury last week should keep his ownership percentage down, but as of this writing Jackson continues to insist that he will play this week. Obviously this needs monitoring, but if DeSean is giving it a go, even if he is somewhat limited, all he needs is one big play to justify this price.
Golden Tate – $5,000 vs Green Bay
I want my DFS hands all over this Green Bay-Detroit game as fireworks are to be expected. Sure, I could list guys like Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson being players to target (and they most certainly are) but I assume you already know that. I’m digging a little deeper, and more specifically, cheaper by giving Tate a look. The Packers will do their best to contain Calvin and presumably adjust their defense appropriately. This should leave Detroit’s #2 WR in a plethora of one-on-one situations. Through two games Golden has turned 14 looks into an acceptable, yet unspectacular, 11 receptions for 150 yards. This makes me think Tate has a fairly safe floor, and here is hoping he crosses the endzone this week, to raise his ceiling.
TIGHT END
Jared Cook – $3,400 vs Dallas
The Cowboys defense hasn’t been as deplorable as anticipated through two games, but I still can’t get through an article without picking on them. That said, they have had their issues covering TEs so far. Both Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker have torched Dallas in previous weeks. Sure, it may be a small sample, but I’m willing to roll the dice on Cook who is a huge, athletic target and has been a presence in the STL offense through a pair of games (12 targets / 8 receptions). At just $400 over the minimum TE price, the potential payoff outweighs the risk in a large field tournament.
DEFENSE
New England Patriots – $3,500 vs Oakland
Oh look, more Patriots. Being a 14 point underdog is hard enough to overcome for Oakland, but its well documented that West coast teams traveling East for a 1PM Sunday start time generally don’t fare so well. When the game presumably gets out of hand the already putrid Oakland offense will become that much more predictable. What makes New England even more attractive is the slight difference from the cheap defenses to the expensive ones. You have every reason to splurge and pay the few extra bucks for what looks to be the best positioned defense on the slate.
NEXT MAN UP
QUARTERBACK
Kirk Cousins – $7.300 at Philadelphia
I expect Kirk will be a somewhat popular GPP selection, and the attention is justified. The Packers-Lions game is expected to have the most fireworks in the Week 3 slate, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Washington vs. Philadelphia matchup trumps the main event. As a general rule I want shares of any game that pits two NFC East teams against each other. They tend to be averse to defense. Vegas confirms my tendency by posting a 50.5 over/under in this game, making it the second highest total on the board. As for Kirk, he looked solid in relief of the injured Robert Griffin III, and many have argued Jay Gruden’s offense better suits his style over Griffin’s. About 250 yards and two TDs seems like a reasonable expectation.
RUNNING BACK
Khiry Robinson – $3.900 vs Minnesota
Four words have me very excited to unleash Khiry this weekend. Coach Sean Payton deemed Robinson “ready for the workload” as he’ll be asked to step in for the injured Mark Ingram. Sure, Pierre Thomas will also be lurking in the backfield, but he’ll more than likely be the 3rd down/change of pace back while its expected Khiry will both the lead the Saints in carries, and inherit the precious goal-line carries. Keeping in mind that this game is a home game vs the Vikings, and that New Orleans is a double-digit favorite, its hard not to foresee Robinson having the opportunity to gobble up a good chunk of 4th quarter, kill the clock yards.
Knile Davis – $6,200 at Miami
Maybe the Chiefs are trolling us fantasy guys. Or maybe they are playing head games with the Dolphins. After everyone assuming Jamaal Charles would be out for at least this week, news broke that Charles practiced on Thursday, albeit in a limited fashion thanks to his ankle. The bottom line is pretty simple here. If Jamaal can’t go then Knile becomes very intriguing as he’ll be the lead back, and presumably get 20+ touches as he plays the role of Charles in a competent fashion.
Donald Brown – $3,500 at Buffalo
If you had Week 2 in your “when will Ryan Mathews get hurt” pool, feel free to cash in your ticket. According to San Diego beat writer Michael Gehiken, he anticipates Donald will be asked to “absorb the bulk” of Ryan’s vacated carries. Additionally he is expected to be the goal-line back. Sure, Danny Woodhead will still be in-the-mix and be the primary passing back, but at this minuscule price its really hard to not justify a roster spot for Brown, who should garner 15+ touches.
TIGHT END
Rob Gronkowski – $5,900 vs Oakland
I’m cheating here a little bit as this section is generally reserved for guys that are being asked to step up due to a starter’s injury. Well, in this case I’m hoping that Rob can show that he has healed up from his off-season ACL surgery. The Patriots have been easing him into the offense somewhat with limiting his snaps but I believe a breakout is inevitable. Just like last week, I’m getting sucked in by Gronk’s upside/price when it comes to building my tournament lineups. No, rostering Rob did not work out for us last week, but we’ve talked about how well positioned NE is to score this week. Call me stubborn, but if Brady and the Pats want to get Gronk a pair of TDs this week, it shouldn’t be all that difficult to make happen, as New England will move the ball as they please versus the awful Raiders.