Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bears vs. Texans Odds
| Bears Odds | +6 |
| Texans Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Date | Sunday, September 15th |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature a pair of undefeated teams, with the Chicago Bears traveling to take on the Houston Texans. Caleb Williams and the Bears will be looking to improve upon a disappointing offensive showing in their season opener, but they could be missing a few key pieces this evening. CJ Stroud and company will be looking to take care of business in front of their home fans, where they went 7-3 last season.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Texans as 6.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 45 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Since 2000, rookie quarterbacks are 12-34 SU when playing on the road in the month of September. They are 2-23 SU in those contests when facing a team that finished the year .500 or better. Caleb Williams and the Bears are hoping to establish themselves as an outlier in that data set this evening on Sunday Night Football.
Chicago Bears Preview
Williams looking to put poor debut behind him
Caleb Williams was incredibly underwhelming in his NFL debut, finishing with only 93 passing yards on 29 attempts. He failed to throw a touchdown and led his offense to an abysmal 2-for-13 showing on 3rd down. He didn’t throw an interception, but he made a pair of turnover-worthy throws, per PFF. Only 5 quarterbacks ended Week 1 with more turnover-worthy throws than Williams.
He will look to be sharper on Sunday Night Football, but the recent history of rookie quarterbacks on the road in September isn’t good. Williams and the Bears’ offense have a tough task in front of them – especially with WR Keenan Allen and WR Rome Odunze listed as doubtful and questionable (respectively) ahead of kickoff.
Chicago defense picking up where they left off in 2023
Chicago’s defense enjoyed a second-half surge in 2023, and their Week 1 performance suggests that they may be capable of sustaining that momentum into the new season. Last weekend, the Bears’ defense ranked 8th in EPA/play, 8th in success rate, and 7th in pressure rate. This unit is playing at a high level and is mostly healthy heading into Week 2. They should be able to give CJ Stroud all he can handle in this spot.
Houston Texans Preview
Can Stroud continue his run of good fortune?
In 2023, CJ Stroud had fewer interceptions than any other quarterback with at least 400 dropbacks. However, he ranked 11th out of 25 signal callers in turnover-worthy play rate last season, suggesting that he was far luckier than his end-of-season numbers indicated. In Week 1 this fall, only Kirk Cousins and Jalen Hurts had a higher rate of turnover-worthy throws among quarterbacks with 10+ dropbacks.
On Sunday, Stroud will have to contend with an aggressive Chicago defense that had the most interceptions of any team in the NFL a season ago. Stroud’s ability to take care of the football this evening will be a key to the game for Houston – even more so than normal.
Houston defense struggling to begin 2024
Teams are only one game into the new campaign, but the early returns for the Texans’ defense weren’t great. In Week 1, Houston’s defense ranked 26th in pressure rate, 22nd in EPA/play, and 20th in success rate. They allowed 27 points and 303 yards of total offense to the Colts despite the fact that the Texans’ offense had the ball for 40 out of a possible 60 minutes.
In Week 2, Houston will once again be without LB Christian Harris, who finished 2023 with the 2nd most tackles of any Texans defender, adding 2 sacks and 7 passes defensed. He wasn’t a strong run defender, but he ranked 21st out of 77 players at his position in coverage. His absence is evidently being felt by this unit early in 2024.
Bears vs. Texans Prediction
Rookie quarterbacks playing on the road in the first two weeks of the season haven’t fared well in the last 25 years, but 10 of those 25 quarterbacks (and teams) have been able to cover 6 points. There were 3 more instances in which those teams lost by exactly 7 points. Most of those teams didn’t have the supporting cast of Caleb Williams, who has a lot of offensive talent at the skill positions and a defense in the top half of the league to help him get acclimated to the NFL.
CJ Stroud and the Texans came away with a win last week, but there are more than a few reasons to be worried about the way in which they won that game. If the Bears can force a turnover or two in this game, they should be competitive at this number on the spread.
PICK: Bears +6 (-110, DraftKings)
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