Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds, Prediction & Pick
Bengals vs. Cardinals Odds
| Bengals Odds | -3 |
| Cardinals Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals will meet at State Farm Stadium. Joe Burrow and company have been underwhelming to begin 2023, with only one win in their first four contests. Arizona also enters play with a 1-3 record, but their offense has propelled them to a much better net point differential than Cincinnati despite playing tough competition in the first month of the new season.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bengals as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 44.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cincinnati Bengals
How is the calf injury impacting QB Joe Burrow?
In late July, Joe Burrow sustained a calf injury, which led to him missing more than a month of practice as he rehabbed in preparation for the season opener. In Week 2, Burrow reportedly aggravated the same calf against the Baltimore Ravens and is still playing at less than 100 percent health as the campaign enters Week 5.
Burrow’s lack of mobility has led to career-worst numbers across the board so far in 2023, including a 57.6% completion rate, 4.8 yards per attempt, and a 33.8 QBR. Burrow’s lack of mobility has caused him to perform particularly poorly under pressure, completing only 37.8% of his pass attempts for 2.8 yards per attempt. Fortunately for Burrow and the Bengals, they get a favorable matchup on Sunday against an Arizona defense that generated the lowest defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL last weekend.
Burrow is still not going to be able to move optimally against the Cardinals, but he should have more room to operate in the pocket against a lackluster Arizona pass rush. Cincinnati’s offense could have their best day of the season to date on Sunday.
Trey Hendrickson listed as QUESTIONABLE
According to PFF, Trey Hendrickson is Cincinnati’s highest-graded defender of the 2023 season through four games. Though he is relatively weak against the run, Hendrickson’s 17 quarterback pressures are nearly twice as many as any other member of the defense this fall. Hendrickson leads the team with four sacks as well and would be a huge loss if unable to go this weekend. The fact that Hendrickson did not practice on Friday does not bode well for his chances of suiting up against the Cardinals.
Arizona Cardinals
Do you believe in Dobbs?
Despite a 1-3 start to the year, Joshua Dobbs has over-performed expectations by a significant margin – ranking 8th in QBR and throwing for 814 passing yards without an interception so far in 2023. Even more impressive, Dobbs has faced the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, two of the league’s best defenses, in his first four starts. Dobbs has also done a stellar job avoiding negative plays, having been sacked only three times in his three games played while adding 138 rushing yards in that span. Dobbs has been good from a clean pocket and great when under pressure through the first month of action. It stands to reason that he is only going to continue getting better as he gets more familiar with this new team.
Arizona defense struggling to begin 2023
The biggest weakness for the Cardinals, and the primary reason for their 1-3 start, is their defense. Entering play in Week 5, Arizona ranks 28th in yards allowed per play overall, 23rd against the run, and 29th against the pass. Only the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers have allowed more first downs per game in 2023 than Arizona. Only the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks have allowed their opponents to convert third downs at a higher rate. Even against a struggling Cincinnati offense, this unit is a concern.
Bengals vs. Cardinals – Picks & Predictions
In the NFL, low defensive pressure rate is correlated with higher yards per attempt for opposing offensive attacks. The Cardinals have generated less pressure than almost every other team in the NFL so far in 2023, which bodes well for Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense on Sunday. The potential absence of edge defender Trey Hendrickson for Cincinnati’s defense, however, bodes well for Joshua Dobbs and the Arizona offensive attack. Expect both of these teams to find success moving the chains and putting points on the board in this matchup. The over is a strong look assuming Hendrickson does not play.
PICK: Over 44.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)