Bengals vs. Chargers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bengals vs. Chargers Odds
| Bengals Odds | +1 |
| Chargers Odds | -1 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Date | Sunday, November 17 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Chargers as 1-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 48 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Justin Herbert is 17-5 to the under since the beginning of last season – the best mark of any quarterback in the NFL during that stretch. Joe Burrow is 11-17-1 SU and 19-10 in games when he is listed as an underdog.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
Higgins expected to play on Sunday
According to head coach Zac Taylor, Tee Higgins is expected to play on Sunday, which will be his first time suiting up since Week 7. Though the Bengals put up 34 points against the Ravens without Higgins in Week 10, this unit had mostly struggled without him prior to that point – failing to have a single game ranked in the top-10 in EPA/play in his other 4 absences.
Despite playing in only half of Cincinnati’s games this fall, Higgins still ranks tied for 2nd on the team in targets and 3rd on the team in receiving yards. He is a major value added to this offense when healthy.
What to expect from Cincinnati defense
Tonight, Cincinnati’s defense will face a Los Angeles offense that ranks 12th in DVOA through 10 weeks. This season, the Bengals have not fared well against top-tier offenses.
In 5 games against teams with a top-15 DVOA offense this season, the Bengals are 0-5 SU, allowing 35.4 points per game. They have allowed 26 points to the Chiefs, 38 points to the Commanders, 41 points to the Ravens, 37 points to the Eagles, and 35 points to the Ravens in those contests. Cincinnati’s defense has ranked 26th or worse in EPA/play in each of those matchups, meaning that the advanced numbers support the fact that this unit has been severely overmatched in these spots in 2024.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Harbaugh taking the leash off of Herbert
During the first 4 weeks of the season, Justin Herbert averaged 144.5 passing yards per game and never attempted more than 27 passes. Since that point, the Chargers have gone from 25th in neutral pass rate to 5th in neutral pass rate. Herbert is averaging 262.2 passing yards per game in that stretch.
The change in philosophy has helped the Chargers score 26+ points in each of their last 3 games, facing New Orleans, Cleveland, and Tennessee. Herbert and company get an even easier matchup this weekend, facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks 27th in DVOA this season. All signs point to continued success for the Chargers.
Chargers’ defense trending up
Entering Week 11, Los Angeles’ defense ranked 8th in DVOA overall – 5th against the pass and 18th against the run. However, it’s worth noting that the Chargers haven’t played the toughest competition this fall. Their opponents this season rank 31st, 28th, 18th, 10th, 24th, 11th, 20th, 32nd, and 27th in offensive DVOA in 2024.
Still, the Chargers have done well against their tougher opponents, holding the 10th-ranked Chiefs to 17 points and the 11th-ranked Cardinals to 17 points. Cincinnati, ranked 9th in defensive DVOA, will be their first game this year against a team inside the top-10 in offensive DVOA. This is a game that could be very revealing as to whether this unit is as good as their numbers currently suggest.
Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction
The Chargers don’t have many truly impressive wins on their resume yet this season, but teams can only beat the opponents on their schedule. Nearly all advanced metrics lend support to the idea that Los Angeles has played very well in 2024. Tonight, they will host a Cincinnati team that is winless against teams ranking in the top-15 in offensive DVOA this season. Justin Herbert and the Chargers are well-positioned to take care of business in this primetime affair.
PICK: Chargers ML (-118, DraftKings)
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