Bengals vs. Cowboys Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bengals vs. Cowboys Odds
| Bengals Odds | -4.5 |
| Cowboys Odds | +4.5 |
| Over/Under | 50 |
| Date | Monday, December 9 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 14 of the NFL regular season will wrap up with a Monday Night Football matchup featuring Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals against Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Bengals as 4.5-point road favorites on the spread. The total is set at 50 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Monday Night Football overs are 12-4 this season, going over the total by over 6 points per game. To date, this is the 2nd-best year for overs on Monday Night Football in the last 20 years.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
What to expect from Burrow, Bengals offense
Joe Burrow is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Since the beginning of November, Burrow has thrown a league-high 15 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions. During that stretch, he ranks 6th in EPA/play, 6th in success rate, 3rd in passing yards, and 3rd in passer rating. The Bengals have scored 41 points, 34 points, 27 points, and 38 points in those 4 respective games.
Even more impressively, Burrow has been putting up these gaudy numbers despite not having a fully healthy team around him. His starting LT Orlando Brown didn’t play in 3 of those games, and WR Tee Higgins missed 2 of those contests. Brown has been ruled out again for this evening’s game against the Cowboys, a week after returning from injury. His backup, LT Cody Ford, has allowed a ghastly 9.3% pressure rate this year, but Burrow has one of the quicker average release teams in the NFL, so it hasn’t been a major issue- at least not yet.
Injuries piling up for Cincinnati defense
Entering play in Week 14, Cincinnati’s defense has LB Logan Wilson, CB DJ Turner, and CB Dax Hill on injured reserve. Wilson, the team’s leading tackler at the time of his injury, missed his first game of the season in Week 13 against the Steelers. Pittsburgh scored 44 points and ran for 110 yards against Cincinnati. Turner also missed that contest, his first time not playing a full allotment of snaps since Week 3.
Simply, this unit is missing a lot of its top talent. DT Sheldon Rankins has also been ruled out tonight for the Bengals. Since he last played in Week 10, the Bengals run defense ranks 29th in EPA/play. The combined absences of Wilson, Turner, Hill, and Rankins have this unit facing an uphill battle on Monday.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Martin ruled OUT, Guyton listed as QUESTIONABLE
Starting RG Zack Martin will miss his 3rd consecutive game this evening and could be joined on the sidelines by starting LT Tyler Guyton, who hasn’t practiced at all this week due to ankle and knee ailments. The good news for this Dallas offense is that they have performed fine the last couple of weeks without Martin on the field, scoring 34 points against the Commanders and 27 points against the Giants.
Across the last two weeks, Cooper Rush has the quickest average time to throw in the entire NFL, which has helped alleviate any potential protection issues that could result from missing pieces on the offensive line. His low aDOT approach has also helped him take care of the football, with only 1 turnover-worthy throw on 71 dropbacks in that span.
Even if this unit is down a pair of starters on the offensive line, they should be able to move the football against an injury-depleted Cincinnati defense.
Can Dallas’ defense slow down Burrow?
From Week 5 to Week 9, with EDGE Micah Parsons out due to injury, Dallas’ defense ranked 31st in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. He was limited in his return to the field in Week 10, but has played at least 60 snaps in each of the team’s last 3 games. In those 3 contests, the Cowboys’ defense ranks 9th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate.
During the last few weeks, Dallas’ defense has still been vulnerable to big plays on the ground, but they rank in the top 9 in success rate against both the run and the pass, and they rank 2nd in the entire NFL in EPA/play against the pass.
CB Trevon Diggs is listed as questionable for tonight’s action, but the team is optimistic that he will be able to suit up. Assuming he’s on the field, this is a tremendously undervalued group.
Bengals vs. Cowboys Prediction
Cincinnati’s defense will essentially be down 4 starters from their optimal unit when they face Dallas on Monday Night Football. Cooper Rush isn’t the most exciting quarterback to trust to put points on the board, but the Cowboys have scored 27+ points in each of his last two starts, and tonight is their most favorable matchup yet in that stretch of action. This is good value given the matchup and the injury report.
PICK: Cowboys Team Total OVER 22.5 Points (-118, DraftKings)
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