Bengals vs. Giants Player Props: Three Predictions for Sunday Night Football
Bengals vs. Giants Odds
| Bengals Odds | -3.5 |
| Giants Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Sunday, October 13th |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
Today’s 12-game NFL slate will wrap up with a battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. Joe Burrow and the Bengals enter play 1-4, facing an uphill climb back into a crowded AFC playoff picture. Daniel Jones and the Giants have a chance to get back to the .500 mark with a win at home in Week 6.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Bengals as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Joe Burrow is 5-2 SU as a favorite in night games during his career. Daniel Jones is 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS at night, including a dreadful 0-7 SU playing in home games at night.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
Burrow, Bengals offense playing at a high level
The Bengals have only 1 win so far this fall, but that isn’t the fault of Joe Burrow or anyone on the offense. Burrow had a poor showing in the team’s season opener, but he has been excellent since that point, ranking 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, and 2nd in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). During that stretch, Cincinnati’s offense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate overall, scoring 25 points, 33 points, 34 points, and 38 points.
Cincinnati defense getting key pieces back in the lineup
Last weekend, Cincinnati was without DT Sheldon Rankins and their primary slot CB Mike Hilton, which proved too much to overcome, allowing 41 points to Baltimore. Tonight, the Bengals are likely to have both players back on the field, in addition to DT McKinnley Jackson, who will be playing in his 2nd career game after being selected in the 3rd round this past summer.
This unit enters Week 6 ranked 30th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. They rank 22nd in DVOA, suggesting that they are likely due for some positive regression as their schedule softens. The Bengals are also likely to improve, as they finally get all of their key pieces on the field at the same time.
New York Giants Preview
The return of Danny Dimes
Daniel Jones missed 11 games in 2023 due to a season-ending injury and looked completely over-matched in his return to the field in Week 1 this fall. Since that point, he’s been one of the more productive quarterbacks in the entire NFL. Since Week 2, Jones ranks 6th among all qualified signal callers in EPA/play and 10th in success rate. Only Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts have a higher CPOE. Jones and Burrow are the only quarterbacks to enter Week 6 with a positive EPA/play in each of their last 4 games.
Thibodeaux ruled OUT
New York’s biggest defensive strength in 2024 has been their ability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Through 5 games, the Giants defense leads the entire NFL in adjusted sack rate and sacks per pass attempt. Kayvon Thibodeaux has been a key contributor to those numbers, with a pair of sacks and 16 pressures, the latter of which ranks 3rd on the defense behind Dexter Lawrence (23) and Brian Burns (17).
Even if the Giants are able to get pressure on Burrow this evening, it could be a long night for their defense. Burrow leads all qualified quarterbacks this season in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt when under pressure.
Bengals vs. Giants Prediction
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are not off to a great start in 2024 as far as wins and losses are concerned, but this team is significantly better than their 1-4 record indicates. All 4 of their losses this season have come by a single score, losing in Week 1 because of a fumble on the goal line, in Week 2 because of a defensive pass interference on a play that would have secured a win, and in Week 4 after missing a game-winning field goal in overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are likely overvalued after last week’s win against the Seahawks. This is a good buy-low spot on Cincinnati in a game that could get ugly if their defense shows any level of effectiveness.
PICK: Bengals -3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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