Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday, March 3
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Nikola Jokic, Lu Dort, and Markelle Fultz? Follow along as our NBA betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his three favorite NBA prop bets for March 3 on the hardwood.
On Friday, the NBA slate features 10 games, beginning with the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets at 7:00 p.m. EST. Ahead of tip-off, P.J. Washington, Anfernee Simons, Jimmy Butler, De’Aaron Fox, and other notable names find themselves listed on the injury report. Bettors are advised to monitor the status of these individuals throughout the day.
We have started the month of March with back to back 1-2 performances, but we are still profitable 14 of the last 25 days and 22 of the last 35 days overall. Across the last 57 days, we are 89-75-7, including a 55-45-5 run during the last 35 days. Below, we have three spots we are targeting for March 3 on the hardwood.
NBA Props Results
March: 2-4
February: 33-28-5
December 29 – January 31: 54-43-2
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NBA Player Props, March 3, 2023
- Nikola Jokic o12.5 rebounds
- Lu Dort o17.5 points
- Markelle Fultz o14.5 points
Nikola Jokic o12.5 rebounds (-130), DraftKings
According to props.cash, Nikola Jokic is only 13 for 29 to the over at this market number this season, but there are reasons to believe he can get there tonight. Since Steven Adams last played for the Memphis Grizzlies on January 22, the team ranks 27th in rebound percentage and 28th in opponent rebounds per game. Since February 15, Memphis has allowed 14 rebounds to Walker Kessler, 19 rebounds to Joel Embiid, and 13 rebounds to Jokic – the three true centers who they have faced during that time period. On February 25, Jokic had 13 rebounds on 20 rebound chances in only 27 minutes of action on the road in a blowout game script. On the season, Jokic is averaging 12.8 rebounds and 19.3 rebound chances per game at home, compared to 10.5 rebounds and 17.3 rebound chances per game on the road. In a favorable matchup this evening, on his home floor, Jokic should be able to get the job done here.
Lu Dort o17.5 points (-115), FanDuel
Call me a glutton for punishment, but we are back on the Lu Dort train again on Friday. Since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last played, Dort has attempted 17 shots, 17 shots, 14 shots, and 16 shots, respectively, from the field. In that span, he has scored at least 17 points in each of the three games in which he has played more than 21 minutes. According to props.cash, Dort has eclipsed this market number in 11 of his last 15 games played with Gilgeous-Alexander off of the floor, dating back to last season, with only one game of fewer than 15 points. The primary concern with Dort is his minutes, with the Oklahoma City Thunder’s rotation being less reliable of late. However, this play makes too much sense from a mathematical perspective this evening, considering that Dort is averaging 22.4 points per 36 minutes of action this year when Gilgeous-Alexander is not on the court. Take the over on his points prop and live with the result.
Markelle Fultz o14.5 points (-125), PointsBet
Since February 1, Markelle Fultz is the leading scorer for the Orlando Magic, averaging 16.6 points on 12.8 field goal attempts in that span, on an efficient 53.2% from the floor. In seven road games during that stretch, Fultz has been even better, averaging 17.3 points on 58.6% shooting from the field, including a 21-point performance against the Milwaukee Bucks this past Wednesday. Tonight, Fultz gets a favorable matchup against a Charlotte Hornets team that ranks 30th in opponent field goal attempts per game in the restricted area, 14th in opponent field goal attempts per game in the paint, and 15th in opponent field goal attempts per game in the mid-range – the three areas of the floor where Fultz attacks most frequently on the offensive end. The volume is likely to be there tonight for Fultz, who has only one game with fewer than 12 shot attempts in the last 30 days. Trust him to knock down enough shots to hit the over in this spot.
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