BETSiE’s NFL Forecast: Packers and Chiefs Lead the Way, Colts Emerge as AFC Wildcard Champ
Following the past weekend’s results, RotoGrinders’ supercomputer BETSiE runs every snap for the rest of the NFL season — not once, but 100,000 times.
The result: a fully simulated landscape of projected wins, playoff odds, and Super Bowl probabilities that often diverge from sportsbook pricing and fan sentiment alike.
BETSiE’s current projections are clear: Green Bay and Kansas City lead the race for the Lombardi Trophy, but the Indianapolis Colts might just be the data model’s biggest sleeper.
🧮 The Numbers Behind BETSiE
BETSiE (Betting Evaluation and Team Simulation Engine) combines advanced team metrics, player grades, and strength-of-schedule data to simulate each game of the season. Every output is converted into implied probabilities for playoff berths, division titles, conference championships, and Super Bowl wins.
The result is a probabilistic outlook that helps bettors and DFS players quantify uncertainty — where a 1-in-10 chance can be the perfect value play.
🏆 Top Super Bowl Contenders
1. Green Bay Packers — 11.8% chance to win Super Bowl
Projected Record: 10.9–6.1
Playoff Odds: 81.5%
Division Win Odds: 50.9%
Conference Win Odds: 20.0%
Jordan Love’s breakout campaign last season wasn’t a fluke — at least according to BETSiE. The Packers headline the model’s NFL projections with the highest Super Bowl probability in the league (11.8%) and one of the most balanced win distributions in the NFC. With a 50% shot to be NFC North champs, they edge out Detroit and Philadelphia for conference supremacy. The addition of Micah Parsons will definitely be the difference maker here.
2. Kansas City Chiefs — 10.1%
Projected Record: 10.3–6.7
Playoff Odds: 83.5%
Division Win Odds: 51.4%
BETSiE still believes in Mahomes. Despite a slightly lower win projection than recent seasons, the Chiefs remain one of only two franchises with double-digit Super Bowl odds.
With Missouri sports betting being legalized, in-state Chiefs fans can finally wager on their favorite team using these projection insights!
3. Buffalo Bills — 7.7%
Projected Record: 11.3–5.8
Playoff Odds: 77.5%
Division Win Odds: 45.0%
Buffalo continues to hover near the top, ranking third in overall Super Bowl probability. The AFC East is tighter than ever, but BETSiE’s simulations give the Bills the highest win total in the league — suggesting that even with a difficult schedule, their ceiling remains elite.
4. Indianapolis Colts — 7.7%
Projected Record: 11.2–5.8
Playoff Odds: 91.6%
Division Win Odds: 65.2%
No team improved its profile more dramatically in BETSiE’s 2025/26 projections than Indianapolis. With the highest playoff probability in football (91.6%), the Colts are the AFC’s steadiest team by simulation frequency — winning the division two-thirds of the time and reaching the Super Bowl 16% of the time. Their 7.7% title chance ties Buffalo, but their consistency stands out even more.
5. Los Angeles Rams — 7.0%
Projected Record: 10.8–6.2
Playoff Odds: 78.7%
Division Win Odds: 43.6%
The Rams rank as the NFC’s second-most reliable playoff team behind Green Bay. With strong divisional parity and a top-five offensive projection, their 7% Super Bowl probability suggests a legitimate chance to crash the postseason elite.
📊 Full BETSiE Projections
| Team | Wins | Losses | Reach Playoffs | Win Division | Win Conference | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 10.9 | 6.1 | 81.5% | 50.9% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.3 | 6.7 | 83.5% | 51.4% | 18.9% | 10.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.3 | 5.8 | 77.5% | 45.0% | 15.1% | 7.7% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 11.2 | 5.8 | 91.6% | 65.2% | 16.1% | 7.7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.8 | 6.2 | 78.7% | 43.6% | 13.2% | 7.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 11.0 | 6.1 | 75.3% | 40.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.8 | 6.2 | 77.8% | 55.8% | 11.6% | 5.9% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.9 | 6.1 | 81.2% | 43.2% | 10.4% | 5.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.3 | 7.7 | 59.5% | 22.8% | 8.7% | 4.5% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10.9 | 6.1 | 84.8% | 76.1% | 9.2% | 4.4% |
| New England Patriots | 10.3 | 6.7 | 78.4% | 41.3% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
| Denver Broncos | 10.2 | 6.8 | 72.2% | 32.8% | 8.5% | 3.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.0 | 7.0 | 68.7% | 32.1% | 8.0% | 3.7% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.4 | 7.7 | 67.7% | 56.9% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.0 | 7.1 | 57.7% | 24.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.1 | 8.9 | 36.7% | 24.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.0 | 9.0 | 33.6% | 21.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.8 | 8.2 | 38.7% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Chicago Bears | 8.6 | 8.5 | 35.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Washington Commanders | 8.4 | 8.6 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.2 | 8.9 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Houston Texans | 7.8 | 9.2 | 21.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.9 | 10.1 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.1 | 9.9 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.4 | 10.6 | 6.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.1 | 10.9 | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| New York Giants | 5.1 | 11.9 | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 5.4 | 11.7 | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| New York Jets | 4.2 | 12.9 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 3.9 | 13.2 | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.4 | 11.6 | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 4.9 | 12.1 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Tampa Bay’s 76% division-win probability is the highest in the NFL, signaling that the NFC South remains a one-team race. Philadelphia and San Francisco, meanwhile, sit below Green Bay in NFC title equity for the first time in three years.
📉 Teams Trending Down
BETSiE isn’t kind to recent playoff regulars.
- Baltimore Ravens: Only 8 wins and a 2% chance to win the Super Bowl.
- Dallas Cowboys: 36.7% playoff odds, with less than 1-in-40 Super Bowl probability.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Down to 6.9 wins and 0.3% title odds, marking one of the biggest projected regressions of the season.
At the bottom: New York Jets (0.4% playoff chance), Tennessee Titans (0.6%), and New Orleans Saints (0.6%) — all facing near-zero championship equity across 100,000 simulations.
🧠 Betting Edge: Finding Value in Probability
For bettors, BETSiE’s output reveals where market perception diverges from statistical probability.
- Green Bay’s 11.8% title probability (~+750 implied) often outpaces their listed odds in futures markets.
- Indianapolis’ 91.6% playoff projection suggests they may be undervalued in division futures, particularly given their AFC South dominance.
- Teams like Dallas, Baltimore, and Cincinnati could be overpriced relative to their true probabilities, signaling potential fade opportunities.
If you want another way to sharpen your bets as game day gets closer, check out our NFL weather analysis, too, as weather is notably difficult to factor in this far out.
🏁 The Takeaway
BETSiE’s 2025 model paints a familiar but evolving picture of the NFL odds landscape:
The Packers and Chiefs remain the benchmark for consistency, Buffalo and Indy are built for deep postseason runs, and the NFC’s hierarchy is tightening between Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Detroit.
In a season where more than half the league projects between seven and eleven wins, variance becomes the edge — and that’s exactly what BETSiE is built to find.
IMAGE CREDIT: IMAGN