Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
| Bills Odds | +2 |
| Chiefs Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 49.5 |
| Date | Sunday, January 26, 2025 |
| Time | 6:30 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Tonight, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in the AFC Championship Game for the second time in the last five years, with the winner advancing to play in Super Bowl 59 on February 9 in New Orleans. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS from Arrowhead Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, teams with a rest advantage in their Conference Championship game are 26-16 SU since the 2003-2004 season. Kansas City defeated Houston last Saturday, giving them an extra day of rest heading into today’s matchup.
Buffalo Bills Preview
What to expect from Allen, Buffalo offense
During the regular season, Josh Allen had the 5th-highest passer rating in the NFL on throws that came out of his hand fewer than 2.5 seconds after the snap (among 26 quarterbacks with 350+ dropbacks). Allen had 15 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions, and he completed 75.8% of such passes.
Getting the ball out quickly is likely to be a priority for Allen and the offense today given how frequently Kansas City’s defense blitzes the quarterback. Last week, the Chiefs were able to generate pressure on 53.7% of CJ Stroud dropbacks, holding him to only 79 passing yards and 6 completions on 11 attempts.
In the first head-to-head meeting between the Bills and Chiefs this season, Allen was pressured on 42.2% of his dropbacks, but he completed 9 of 14 passes for 99 yards. WR Khalil Shakir led Buffalo with 21 receptions this season on plays in which the defense blitzed. No other member of the team’s receiving corps had more than 10 such receptions. Expect him to be busy.
Rapp ruled OUT, Benford QUESTIONABLE
The most notable injury news ahead of kickoff in the AFC Championship game concerns S Taylor Rapp for the Bills. Rapp has been ruled out for this matchup, leaving Buffalo with rookie Cole Bishop to assume a starting position alongside S Damar Hamlin. Bishop has started 4 games this year due to injury, but he’s still inexperienced, especially considering that he missed time during training camp due to an injury. Rapp was 4th on the team in tackles during the regular season despite playing only 14 games – leaving a major role to fill for Bishop in this high-stakes affair.
Starting CB Christian Benford was in concussion protocol earlier this week and is officially listed as questionable after leaving practice on Friday for personal reasons. His status is worth monitoring throughout the day as well, though he does appear to be trending toward suiting up.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Mahomes, Chiefs on cusp of 3rd consecutive Super Bowl appearance
Since Patrick Mahomes took over as Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, no franchise has experienced more postseason success. During that span, the Chiefs have won 3 Super Bowls, lost 1 Super Bowl to Tom Brady, and never failed to reach the AFC Championship game.
Though the coaching staff and all the players deserve varying degrees of credit for the team’s dominance, there is little doubt that Patrick Mahomes has been the primary reason for Kansas City’s success. Since 2018, there are only 22 quarterbacks who have logged 100 plays in the postseason. Mahomes has logged 852 plays, which makes it all the more impressive that he leads all of those signal callers in EPA/play and success rate in that span.
Even more notable, Mahomes’ 0.283 EPA/play and 53.5% success rate in the playoffs are both better than his regular season numbers in that same stretch (0.255 EPA/play, 52.5% success rate). Mahomes has consistently performed at an elite level against the toughest opponents since he entered the NFL. There is little reason to expect anything different from him this evening.
Concern for Kansas City’s run defense?
Kansas City’s run defense finished the regular season ranked 9th in DVOA, but there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that this unit is more vulnerable than they were earlier this season. From Week 1 to Week 10, the Chiefs’ run defense ranked 4th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate. From Week 11 to Week 17, Kansas City ranked 16th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate against opposing ground attacks.
The Chiefs’ regression and lack of elite numbers is even more noteworthy when considering that they faced only 2 teams during the regular season that have managed to win a playoff game. Baltimore ran for 185 yards against Kansas City in Week 1 and Buffalo ran for 104 yards against them in Week 11. It’s also worth highlighting that Pittsburgh had 202 rushing yards against the Chiefs on Christmas. Even Houston managed 149 rushing yards against Kansas City in the Divisional Round.
At best, this is likely an average run defense. At worst, this could be a major area to watch on Sunday, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Chiefs are a flawed football team, but they are also the healthier football team in this matchup against the Bills, they have home field advantage, and they have a rest advantage after playing last Saturday.
Patrick Mahomes has been the NFL’s most productive postseason quarterback in the post-Tom Brady era, and he’s supported by arguably the league’s best coaching staff. Whether the public likes it or not, the Chiefs are positioned to head back to the Super Bowl, where they will have an opportunity to win their 3rd consecutive title.
PICK: Chiefs ML (-125, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Getty Images